2016 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Prediction Thread

[BornFromTheVoid]

We've just passed the maximum for the year, which, for the 2nd consecutive year, set a new record low.

Current sea ice extent is the lowest on record, sea ice area is lowest on record and volume (according to PIOMAS) is the 2nd lowest on record after 2011.

Here are the daily minima since 2000, and the 80s and 90s averages.

 80s     6.963
 90s     6.423
2000    5.943
2001    6.567
2002    5.625
2003    5.969
2004    5.770
2005    5.314
2006    5.746
2007    4.147
2008    4.548
2009    5.047
2010    4.590
2011    4.333
2012    3.340
2013    5.040
2014    4.988
2015    4.341
 

Votes are set to private and the we'll use the daily NSIDC data to determine the minimum. I'll update this a few times during the melt season.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Not too much interest in this it seems. The average so far (after 8 votes) is 3.43 milion km2, so just above the 2012 minimum.

A much lower guess than the May poll from last year (the earliest one that melt season).

[BornFromTheVoid]

After 14 votes, the average guess is 3.53 million km2, or 2nd lowest on record. There are small groupings, one, around the 2007 minimum and.the other just below 2012.

I'll post up a new one soon to gauge how people think things are going, now that we're a few weeks into the melt season proper.

[BornFromTheVoid]

After 16 votes, the average guess is for 3.48 million km2, 2nd lowest on record. One big grouping around 3.0-3.2 million km2 is apparent. Time for a new poll methinks.