South West & CS England Weather Discussion Spring 2016 (26th March ------->)

[Nights King]

First air frost of the season -1.2c 

Didn't hang around long though today with patchy cloud moving in early.

Still can't believe we all getting excited and it is only the start of November but just shows you how long we have all waited for a spell of wintry weather!

[Mapantz]

Down to -0.7°C here, this morning. First sub-zero reading since April 28th. It was all white and frosty this morning.

Temp: 8.1°C - Hum: 89% - Dew: 6.4°C - Bar: 1021.81hPa - Wind: ENE @ 1mph.

[matt111]

Didn't quite get low enough for an air frost with a low of 0.4°C. Still had the first frost of the wseason though. Feels cold now but temperature has risen to 10.5°C. 

[jtay]

Cracking evening...

Followed by a cracking morning...

Although it was probably a bit of a shock for last night's latest arrival...

[fergieweather]

5 hours ago, knocker said:

Thanks for the update Ian. I await the ecm ens with some interest this morning. The battle between the energy emanating from the west and the HP potential blocking is quite intriguing.

Indeed, and rapidly-growing spread remains evident post-Tuesday. Inspection of postage stamps shows a veritable raft of possible outcomes by Weds onwards (one member even with a deep low barelling-into the UK... just to keep us entertained!). However, both Op & experimental runs of 00z EC do jointly lean to a muted recovery in temperatures after midweek, peaking to average for a period towards end of the week/into mid-month. Tail-end of experimental run then suggests these start falling-away. Nonetheless, given ongoing spread and varied to-and-fro between models and inter-run within their respective suites, it's inescapable that confidence into the 10-15 & 15-30d periods remains very low.

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Indeed, and rapidly-growing spread remains evident post-Tuesday. Inspection of postage stamps shows a veritable raft of possible outcomes by Weds onwards (one member even with a deep low barelling-into the UK... just to keep us entertained!). However, both Op & experimental runs of 00z EC do jointly lean to a muted recovery in temperatures after midweek, peaking to average for a period towards end of the week/into mid-month. Tail-end of experimental run then suggests these start falling-away. Nonetheless, given ongoing spread and varied to-and-fro between models and inter-run within their respective suites, it's inescapable that confidence into the 10-15 & 15-30d periods remains very low.

Thanks for that. I came to more or less the same conclusion using the EPS means it's but obviously much better getting your analysis using the full suite. The models are certainly struggling with the evolution of the current set up. Sure not without interest though.

[jethro]

I've changed my mind about wanting a cold winter, please may we go back a few months and have summer all over again. Sat on a lawn mower for four hours and I'm blinking frozen and it's not even cold yet. Must be getting old.....

[knocker]

Moderate rain here for the last hour.

[khodds]

I believe it's all starting to look even more exciting judging by the latest model output... meanwhile I was asked to turn the heating off earlier and I'm now sat here freezing 

[Mapantz]

9 minutes ago, khodds said:

I believe it's all starting to look even more exciting judging by the latest model output... meanwhile I was asked to turn the heating off earlier and I'm now sat here freezing 

Lots of cake to eat between now and then, but certainly far more interest as we head further in to November. 

[knocker]

Cloudy with Sc and St. Slight rain with temp 10C and no wind

[jethro]

Facebook has greeted me this morning with one of those 'remember this' posts. Actually, no, I don't, but according to Facebook this happened four years ago today. Quite a difference to the grey, mild, damp of this morning. Shows November snow is possible, even in the mild South West.

[SteveB]

Heavy rain most the morning, nearly 10mm so far. Was this predicted?

[knocker]

Quite grotty here now. Low St. moderate rain and vis about 500m.

[MP-R]

3 hours ago, SteveB said:

Heavy rain most the morning, nearly 10mm so far. Was this predicted?

Yes more rain than I had expected with a similar amount to you.

[Mapantz]

I haven't seen any TV forecasts for a few days, but the BBC and MetO website didn't have any rain down for here. Pretty grim out there!

Temp: 9.3°C - Hum: 97% - Dew: 8.8°C - Rain: 3.6mm - Bar: 1009.11hPa - Wind: Light / Variable @ 1mph.

[knocker]

Some  sort of clearance. The rain has ceased but still cloudy with some medium stuff and Cu and St. Quite a forgettable morning.

[matt111]

Was expecting some rain here but not as much as there has been and looks like quite a bit more still to come. Currently at 5.2mm for today. Current temperature 10.5°C. 

[SteveB]

51 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Yes more rain than I had expected with a similar amount to you.

Looks to be finally clearing here after a morning of fairly persistent rain totalling 11mm. Deffo never saw that predicted last night, I thought it showed patchy intermittent rain clearing early/mid morning.

[Frosty hollows]

Been raining here more or less non stop since first light, some quite heavy bursts too.Didn't see it predicted anywhere apart from my weather station at home!

[jtay]

Our bonfire's getting wet.

[knocker]

Sunny now with just a couple of oktas of Cu.

[SteveB]

1 hour ago, Frosty hollows said:

Been raining here more or less non stop since first light, some quite heavy bursts too.Didn't see it predicted anywhere apart from my weather station at home!

Sun's been out for a good hour or so, looks like it will be dry for people who are planning fireworks tonight.

I have a not so enjoyable couple of nights trying to calm the dog down while all the fireworks are going off.

[Dorsetbred]

Rain back edge has finally cleared although there's no sun here. A healthy drop of rain @ 5.5mm to start the month off..

Double figures eluded us today with it topping out @ 9.9°C, and now already dropping..

Edited November 4, 2016 by Dorsetbred

[Mapantz]

I ended up with 6mm falling today, that's 6mm more than I expected. 

Temp falling quite quickly again. It is forecast to get down to 2°C - that was what was forecast the other morning, and it got down to -0.7 so I'm wondering if ice could be a hazard?

Yesterday's timelapse: http://www.warehamwx.co.uk/cumulus/timelapse.htm