Storm Katie

[Paul]

Storm Katie is the latest named storm, this time named by the Met Office. It's due to arrive late Easter Sunday and into Easter Monday with the main impacts, expected to affect southern Britain. 

More info here:
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=7247;sess=

And excellent blog here by Nick, with an in depth look at the synoptic setup this weekend.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=7246

[Mapantz]

My EX is called katie. If its anything as bad as her, hold on to your hats!

[Methuselah]

Forecasting storms has always been a nightmare: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03p7jh9/timeshift-series-13-6-hurricanes-and-heatwaves-the-highs-and-lows-of-british-weather

[AdamStorm7891]

This has a lot of potential, especially across the highly populated areas of the South-East corner of the country as the system pulls away into the North-Sea.

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

This has a lot of potential, especially across the highly populated areas of the South-East corner of the country as the system pulls away into the North-Sea.

Not more 'potential'? I haven't yet managed to dig myself out of last winter's 'potential', yet!

 

 

[Jen]

Coo, I hope it isn't like the storm we had in about 2003 (?) when the power cut lasted three days! That was a bit of a wicked October storm.

[AdamStorm7891]

5 hours ago, Jen said:

Coo, I hope it isn't like the storm we had in about 2003 (?) when the power cut lasted three days! That was a bit of a wicked October storm.

I think you're probably thinking of 2002.

[matty40s]

With today's front coming through and the already strong winds, does anyone know what the Met Office were looking at in their summary suggesting strange events to the NW of this front as it passes through?? Stingjet perhaps or squall line?

[Nick F]

00z GFS slightly faster with Katie than 00z ECMWF, GFS has centre over Bristol at 00z Mon, while ECM has the centre NW of Cornwall.Both similar in track, though, exiting the low around Lincs/Humber - though GFS exits before 6am whilst ECM does it around noon.

Both bring gusts of 60-70 knts through the English Channel and along Sussex and Kent coasts in the morning, 40-60knts inland across SE corner and E Anglia. ECM has a deeper centre as it crosses NE over England too, 972mb at its lowest as opposed to 982mb on GFS.

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Evening thunder]

I thought they needed Amber warnings to be named, but seems not so I wonder why the 9th March storm wasn't named as that gave gusts as strong as the Met Office warnings mention for this one.

The models seem to be downgrading this one if anything, at least on the GFS, though still shows it pretty windy for the SE.

[Summer Sun]

Updated warning for Monday has removed quite a few areas

Issued at:1031 on Sat 26 Mar 2016

Valid from:0115 on Mon 28 Mar 2016

Valid to:1400 on Mon 28 Mar 2016

Winds will strengthen markedly across southern England and through the Bristol Channel from the start of Monday, with the potential for 50-60 mph gusts inland and 70 mph gusts around coasts exposed to the south. Whilst there is a low likelihood of all areas seeing these strong gusts for a time southern coastal counties from Hampshire eastwards look most likely to see the strongest winds. These will then ease from the southwest during the morning, clearing from the east early in the afternoon. Additional hazards may include large waves around exposed coasts as well as a period of heavy rain.

Please be aware of the potential for disruption to outdoor activities and travel, as well as the possibility of fallen trees and temporary interruptions to power supplies.

This is an update to the alert issued on Friday to remove much of south Wales and the Midlands from the area as well as bring the end time to earlier in the day.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

An area of low pressure is expected to rapidly deepen to the southwest of the UK later on Sunday and then run northeastwards across England and Wales on Monday accompanied by some very strong winds, large coastal waves and heavy rain. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty over the track and timing of this system and so where and when the peaks of strongest winds will occur. However, there is a continuing signal for a period of disruptive winds, perhaps now more focussed towards southeastern parts of England. This alert will be updated on Sunday in light of further information.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1459119600&regionName=uk

[The PIT]

Further south and east that originally thought by the looks of it. Keeps moving that direction Monday may not be a bad day after all.

[Spikey M]

2 hours ago, Evening thunder said:

 

The models seem to be downgrading this one if anything, at least on the GFS, though still shows it pretty windy for the SE.

It's a busy day on the roads and it's the most populated area of the country. That'll be why, I expect.

Hitting over night and away from the South East I wouldn't expect this to be named.

[stevofunnelcl]

Centre passes right over me

will get the rain, winds will probably remain light and variable, until it moves by, then a gusty north-westerly

Which would remind me a fair bit of Oct 1987... let's hope we have nothing on that scale this time

[Liam J]

Tonight's storm up north could potentially bring severe gales with gusts around 60-70mph+ for a time over Scotland, even inland according to the 12z. The Met warning mentions the possibility of isolated gusts around 75-80mph in the far north, yet has no name. 

12z ARPEGE predicting gusts around 80mph clipping the far north of Ireland and into Western Scotland later this evening. 

Latest satellite looking quite angry with the signature cloud hook of a deepening storm.  

The strongest of the winds from Katie look like missing the mainland but clipping the far S/SE with gusts around 50-60mph+. Very rough through the channel with gusts of 70mph+ possible for a while, not pleasant if you're taking a ferry crossing! 

 

Edited March 26, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[Jen]

21 hours ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

I think you're probably thinking of 2002.

What's a year?! Whenever it was, it was a long time ago. Absolutely nothing here as yet for this storm. One tiny shower, just after dark last night. Clear this morning, and hardly any wind. I'm in East Anglia, and very thankful!

[stewfox]

15 minutes ago, Jen said:

Absolutely nothing here as yet for this storm. One tiny shower, just after dark last night. Clear this morning, and hardly any wind. I'm in East Anglia, and very thankful!

Its expected later tonight ?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

22 minutes ago, Jen said:

What's a year?! Whenever it was, it was a long time ago. Absolutely nothing here as yet for this storm. One tiny shower, just after dark last night. Clear this morning, and hardly any wind. I'm in East Anglia, and very thankful!

Jen, storm Katie is not due till this evening and early morning.. Stay tuned to  the weather stations 

[loopydreamer]

How are the models looking guys? I'm still not good at reading what they mean. Is Katie still on track or is it looking more like she is too far south now? I love a good storm... as long as everyone is safe

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, loopydreamer said:

How are the models looking guys? I'm still not good at reading what they mean. Is Katie still on track or is it looking more like she is too far south now? I love a good storm... as long as everyone is safe

Oh she's coming alright.. Just the models Still are not agreeing on track or intensity I think it maybe s case of watching the sat to see where she goes 

[loopydreamer]

Okay... Will keep an eye on the sat. I will be hanging around this forum all day. I get real excited when storms are on the way ... lol

[NO LONGER POSTING]

6 minutes ago, loopydreamer said:

Okay... Will keep an eye on the sat. I will be hanging around this forum all day. I get real excited when storms are on the way ... lol

I would be keeping an eye on the radar today to for any potent showers that crop up

[Sunlover]

My daughters driving to work early hours tomorrow from Eastbourne to Guildford to go to work so no prizes for guessing I'm watching the track of this storm with a bit of fear and trepidation. This forum perfect for me to keep an eye on things so keep those posts coming particularly if anyone hears of travel disruption on the roads wd be much appreciated 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

High res models disagree completely with gfs best thing to do is await updated met warnings later today