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April 2016 C.E.T. forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Maybe worth looking at the coldest last week (24th-30th) of April in recent and indeed all time.

 

 

Top 20 coldest last weeks:

1808: 4.5

1857: 4.5

1782: 5.0

1906: 5.0

1826: 5.1

1877: 5.5

1829: 5.5

1813: 5.6

1919: 5.6

1941: 5.7

1887: 5.8

1908: 5.8

1799: 6.0

1838: 6.0

1922: 6.0

1989: 6.1

1981: 6.1

1848: 6.2

1927: 6.2

1803: 6.4

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

They both seem right. 1857 also had the biggest drop in temperature from the first week to the last week (a drop of 5.7C).

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Minimum today of 2.6C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 14s, so an increase to 8.2C is likely on tomorrows update. 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

8.2C to the 21st (8.6: -0.6)
8.2C to the 22nd (8.3: -1.1)
8.0C to the 23rd (4.5: -5.2)
7.8C to the 24th (3.6: -6.1)
7.7C to the 25th (4.4: -5.7)
7.6C to the 26th (4.8: -5.3)
7.5C to the 27th (4.3: -5.8)
7.3C to the 28th (3.0: -6.9) [Record low: 3.0C]
7.2C to the 29th (5.4: -4.5)

The 06z GFS suggests the week of the 23rd to the 29th would average 4.3C, so we're we have a genuine chance of the coldest final week of April on record.

At this stage, I'd say a finish of between 6.9C and 8.0C before corrections, and 6.6C to 8.0C after corrections.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 7.5C  -0.9C below normal and odds on for below average month again this spring.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The 12z is s a little milder than the 06z, and would give about 5.1C for the final week. That's still in the top 5 coldest final weeks on record.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Given the projected outlook odds on we will end up below the 61-90 average, and probably quite a few 0.1 degrees below, a finish in the low 7's a distinct possibility,

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

Given that a notable cold spell for late April looks to be on the cards, we could see a finish as low as 2012 at the lowest, but I think it looks very unlikely we will beat the 7.2 CET of 2012 and see the coldest April in 27 years.

There have been very few colder than average Aprils since 1989, and there hasn't been a significantly cold April since 1989.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Min today of 2.8C, while maxima look like hitting about 15C, so we should remain on 8.2C, possible moving to 8.3C, on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

8.2C to the 22nd (8.1: -1.3)
8.1C to the 23rd (5.8: -3.9)
8.0C to the 24th (4.6: -5.1)
8.0C to the 25th (7.5: -2.6)
7.8C to the 26th (3.1: -7.0) [Record low: 3.3C]
7.7C to the 27th (6.4: -3.7)
7.6C to the 28th (5.8: -4.1)
7.6C to the 29th (5.7: -4.2)
7.5C to the 30th (5.7: -4.8)

Still a cool end to the month, but not as exceptional as recent runs with the last week averaging 5.5C.
 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still on 7.5C should be 7.7C tomorrow unless tonight is very cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield back down to 7.6C so the peak of 7.7C was Thursday. Can see a slow but steady slide from now on. As for how big slide is will depend on the night time temperatures.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Minimum today is 2.1C, while maxima look like reaching about 10C, so a drop to 8.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

8.1C to the 24th (5.0: -4.7)
7.9C to the 25th (5.0: -5.1)
7.8C to the 26th (3.9: -6.2) [Record low: 3.3C]
7.6C to the 27th (3.4: -6.7) [Record low: 2.7C]
7.5C to the 28th (4.8: -5.1)
7.4C to the 29th (5.1: -4.8)
7.4C to the 30th (6.5: -4.0)

A very cool end to the month now looking almost certain, with a few daily records possible too. The 06z GFS has the final week averaging about 4.8C, or 3rd coldest on record.
At this stage, a finish of between 7.2C and 8.0C before corrections seems likely, and about 6.9C to 8.0C after corrections.


 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The 12z would be pretty close to equaling the coldest final week of April.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Largest difference between December and the following April CETs maybe worth looking at although the difference between this April and last December is going to be distorted because of that December's extraordinary CET. 

Previous biggest difference was +1.0C, between December 1921 (6.5C) and April 1922 (5.5C). This year will almost certainly be more than 2C, possibly even 2.5C

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Minimum today is 3.2C while maxima look like reaching about 9C, so a drop to 8.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

8.1C to the 25th (6.6: -3.5)
7.9C to the 26th (4.0: -6.1) [Record low: 3.3C]
7.7C to the 27th (3.7: -6.4) [Record low: 2.7C]
7.6C to the 28th (3.5: -6.4) [Record low: 3.0C]
7.5C to the 29th (3.7: -6.2)
7.4C to the 30th (4.7: -5.8)

The minimum today was much higher than expected, and the GFS has the next few days milder than previously forecast too. However, the forecast for the final 3 days is much cooler, so the chance of a record cold final week remains
 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Another odd stat for this year. It looks like it will be only the 3rd year on record where the warmest day of the first 4 months occurred in January (1986 and 1782 being the others). The highest daily average so far is 11.6C on January 25th. The mildest days from Feb, Mar and Apr are 10.4C, 9.9C and (provisionally) 10.1C respectively.

So, a switch from many remarkably mild days during winter to a remarkable lack of mild days during Spring.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Looking like the first two spring months are going to be cooler than December. Has that happened before??

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Am i right in thinking that since Feb 1st the only thirds to have being above average were early April and early Feb.

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