April 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[Lettucing Gutted]

14C    Last sub 5C April in 1837.  Last sub 6C April in 1986.  Last sub 7C April in 1989.  Last sub 7.5C April in 2012.

[Costa Del Fal]

8.3c for me please.

[virtualsphere]

9.8C please

[Lettucing Gutted]

It will be remarkable if April is the coldest month of 2016.

[Weather-history]

The Aprils that followed the 5 strongest El Niños since WWII were all sub 8C

[Ravelin]

I'm going to go for it bucking the above trend, just...8.1C please.

[seabreeze86]

7.7 please

[ditch]

8.8 please

[DAVID SNOW]

22 hours ago, J10 said:

I have now moved the stats thread to this folder

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=6

So all of this years competition in is this folder.

Hello j, looking through that folder I cant seem to find last years results, the overall 1,2,3, annual comp. The previous 2 years are there though?

[Wynn D Woo]

I'll have an 8.9c please

[Nouska]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

The Aprils that followed the 5 strongest El Niños since WWII were all sub 8C

Just been looking at the analogues on NOAA. Strong indication there of a month in the high sevens/low eights. There are still a few high figures that probably reflect the possibility of the troughing being in a position more aligned to winds from a warmer southerly sector.

[DR(S)NO]

Warm?? Cold??  I Can't see anything at the moment in the charts to give me a decent indication of where things are going...8.5c please

Edited March 29, 2016 by DR(S)NO
Cannae make my mind up!!

[stewfox]

8 hours ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

It will be remarkable if April is the coldest month of 2016.

-0.8c was Dec 2016

For April 2016 I'll go for 8.3c if memory serves me wright

 

 

 

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the April CET from 1659-2015 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 5.3C and 6.0C. The average April following March in that range is 7.9C

The linear trend for the whole April record is +0.24C per century. Following this trend gives an April CET of 8.4C.
The linear trend for April since 1850 is +0.42C per century. Following this trend gives an April CET of 8.5C.
The linear trend for April since 1950 is +1.94C per century. Following this trend gives an April CET of 9.0C.
The linear trend for April over the last 50 years is +4.13C per century. Following this trend gives an April CET of 9.38C.
The linear trend for April over the last 30 years is +5.15C per century. Following this trend gives an April CET of 9.52C.

The current 30 year average is the mildest on record, at 8.72C, beating the previous record set last year, of 8.70C. However, the 1960s had a spell where the 30 year average was within 1C of this year, from 1961-1969, indicating a spell of very mild Aprils mid century.
If the CET this April is anything more than 5.8C, we will set a new record for the 30 year average. Anything greater than 6.6C will put the 30 year average on 8.8C for the first time, while anything greater than 9.5C this month will put the 30 year average on 8.9C for the first time.

Edited March 29, 2016 by BornFromTheVoid

[mark4]

9.7C please

[summer blizzard]

8.5C.

[Man With Beard]

8.1 for me. I note that the majority of GEFS runs today have northern blocking in D10-D15 range, leading to a Northerly or Easterly component. Even at this time of the year, this would be sure to push the CET down a little. A slow-starting spring this year I think, might be some time before the t-shirts come out.

[Midlands Ice Age]

8.0C for me please.

MIA

[BornFromTheVoid]

8.2C for now, thanks

[jonboy]

8.4 for me please

[Weather-history]

In my 2016 predictions thread I went for coldest April since 1989, not sure it will be so but I'll role the dice and go for 7.1C

Edited March 30, 2016 by Weather-history
.

[DR Hosking]

it will be 9.5c

[sundog]

7.6c for me please.

[The PIT]

I'll go for 7.4C

[Corrigan87]

I think we'll be looking at a very similar CET to last year, so ill go for 8.9C please