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Paul Sherman

Enhanced Risk AR/MS

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Pretty decent chance of a Significant Tornado today east of Pine Bluff - Expecting a lot of chasers to go for this seeing as chase terrain away from Western Arkansas is not all that bad with decent views and flat farmland around the Stuttgart area. SPC Have increased the Tornado chances to 10% Hatched and with such a compact little low the area of chasing is very small indeed. Decent 60's dewpoints and strong southerly LLJ will promote decent low level shear, storms should die down after dark as boundary layer decouples. HRRR has an arc of storms erupting around 21z and maturing around 23-01z so a decent window of opportunity exists.

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2 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Pretty decent chance of a Significant Tornado today east of Pine Bluff - Expecting a lot of chasers to go for this seeing as chase terrain away from Western Arkansas is not all that bad with decent views and flat farmland around the Stuttgart area. SPC Have increased the Tornado chances to 10% Hatched and with such a compact little low the area of chasing is very small indeed. Decent 60's dewpoints and strong southerly LLJ will promote decent low level shear, storms should die down after dark as boundary layer decouples. HRRR has an arc of storms erupting around 21z and maturing around 23-01z so a decent window of opportunity exists.

looks like a nice armchair chasing night!

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