Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[Nouska]

Never say never in the weather business but .... this was the forecast for April 1st  

Reality ... struggled to make double digits at the surface here.

First convective season with the availability of AROME  - looking at how accurate it is - a good test tonight. Something tasty for around 8 to 9pm.

          

Edit to add the lightning strike chart - looks a pretty good forecast for here. Underestimated for the UK though.

Edited April 3, 2016 by Nouska

[Frosty.]

My take on the current models is for a general mixture of sunshine and showers, some heavy and thundery with occasionally longer spells of rain but also some fine and pleasant intervals. The bottom line is this is typical April weather, nothing particularly unusual for the time of year. 

[Frosty.]

I will be really surprised if there isn't at least a crack or two of thunder from the heavy band of rain moving northwards across the UK tonight!

[Woollymummy]

6 hours ago, Frosty. said:

I will be really surprised if there isn't at least a crack or two of thunder from the heavy band of rain moving northwards across the UK tonight!

Nice blips on Blitzortung already, hope it comes this way, it was great watching the thunderclouds building majestically this evening.

[Frosty.]

25 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

Nice blips on Blitzortung already, hope it comes this way, it was great watching the thunderclouds building majestically this evening.

Yes I love watching thunderclouds building too, and the models indicate sunshine and showers during the week ahead and some of those are likely to be heavy and some with  hail and thunder so the weather certainly isn't boring.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All. At Last we have a traditional start to April.....April showers !!!!  Its going to do what it says on the Tin Im really fed up with the words cooling down by midweek. That is a description for Summer temperatures ! Feeling cold under the showers with rain ,sleet and snow, hail thunder and lightning and gusty winds and a few possible short lived weak tornadoes. But feeling pleasant in the sunshine......

[knocker]

A snapshot of this morning's GFS. On Friday a frontal system approaches from the west and thereafter for a week low pressure will dominate affairs vis the UK which is no great surprise. The main player is a low situated to the SW although in general probably best described as a complex area of low pressure. This could produce a whole gamut of weather conditions to some strong and interesting convective activity, longer periods of rain and quite a few sunny intervals. The drier weather more likely in the north. Temps quite variable given these variations but more or less around average.

This morning's GEFS anomaly for the period continues to show strong ridging into Greenland and a deep low just west of Ireland. Supports quite well the ops output.

Edited April 4, 2016 by knocker

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY APR 4TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A shallow Low pressure area will drift North and NE across the UK today with light cyclonic winds settling Westerly as a ridge of High pressure crosses from the West through the day tomorrow. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain between 5000ft and 7000ft over the next few days under shallow Low pressure dirfting North over the UK. By or on Wednesday the level will rise higher still across the SW for a time before falling to nearer 4000ft behind an Eastward moving cold front by Thursday with snow returning in showers to mountains above 3000ft.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too. Probably staying cool.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is shown to maintain a trough structure across the UK throughout this week, steepening by next weekend as Low pressure sets up shop towards the SW of the UK. Then through the second week any changes in this Jet flow trough across the UK is slow with only a shift towards the very end of the run when confidence is weak of a more SW to NE flow setting up across the UK with Low pressure then to the NW of Britain.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure in control of the UK weather for much of the next few weeks as Low pressure remains and strengthens by next weekend setting in position close to SW England and spilling rain or showers across Southern areas at least with the best of the weather in the North. Then towards the end of the period there is a signal for milder SW winds and less in the way of rain and showers for the South and East developing with continuing changeable conditions across the North and West as pressure is shown to build to the SE.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run shows unsettled conditions across the UK too for the next couple of weeks with an even slower drift towards an improvement later in the period than the operational shows. Low pressure remains close to the UK throughout dragging a lot of cool and showery air across the UK with just a slow build of pressure from the West late next week leading to maybe less showers but in cool air some frost risk at night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA Once again the GFS Clusters at the 14 day time point suggest Low pressure likely to be in control of the UK weather with just a 20% cluster indicating any relied fine and more settled conditions under High pressure close to the West with some night frosts likely should this cool High form. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure well in control of conditions across the UK over the next 6 days. A few brief ridges namely tomorrow and on Friday will bring a couple of drier days between areas of rain and showers in temperatures rather depressed given the time of year.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex troughing associated with Low pressure near to the UK for much of this week as various Low pressure areas move NE to start the week and SE across the North and East of the UK late in the week maintaining the risk of showers or longer outbreaks of rain through the week at the same time as becoming rather colder.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM is also showing a cool and largely unsettled 10 days or so to come as all eyes look to the Northwest and later North for cool Low pressure to move down across or close to the UK is maintained with rain and showers in temperatures near average at best and below at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a lot of breezy and cool weather to come this week as Low pressure remains dominant for all. The passage of the early Low pressure will be NE but once to the East the door is opened to the NW for further cool Low pressure to move down across or near to the West of the UK with cyclonic and cool winds with rain and showers for all heavy at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM is no exception to the rest of the output with the theme of Low pressure in control over the UK throughout the next 10 days. It won't be raining all the time though and some dry interludes under weak ridges this week are shown but with Low pressure eventually settling to the SW of the UK bands of rain and showers will be pushed North or NW across the UK at times with the air none to warm at times especially over the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night still shows Low pressure anchored near Ireland indicative of unsettled weather very likely for all in 10 days time with rain and showers for all in cyclonic winds and temperatures near average at best.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable and Low pressure driven period of weather for all is maintained from the models again this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.4 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 86.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.9 pts to 60.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.4 pts to 41.1 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  Well I thought a few days off from me might be long enough for the models to have perked up and showed something more Springlike to come as we move through April but it looks as though my hopes have gone unheeded as it looks from this morning's output that the weather remains unsettled and often rather cool from most if not all output over the next few weeks. Putting the meat on the bones sees the current shallow Low pressure feeding NE up across the UK serves only to open the door to the Atlantic and the NW later this week for further troughs and Low pressure to bring further outbreaks of rain and heavy showers plus an unwelcome cold wind soon after midweek. Thereon Low pressure seems to get stuck down near the SW of the UK with days and days of troughs spilling north across the UK with further rain and showers at times for all, heaviest in the South. There are a few glimmers of hope with the GFS Operational Run at the end of the period suggesting High pressure building to the SE and settling winds to a milder SW'ly with the South and east becoming largely dry but this is about as good as it gets this morning and that is a good 1-2 days away. So this weekends brief warmth in the SE looks a brief blip in an otherwise cool and unsettled outlook. Frosts will be possible at times if skies clear, at least in the North and while some drier and brighter spells in strong April sunshine might offset the unsettled pattern at times the overall synoptic look of the charts this morning can only lead to a feeling of disappointment if it's a sustained fine, warm and settled spell that your seeking.

Next Update Tuesday April 5th 2016 from 09:00

[stodge]

Morning all

Not sure I'm quite as downcast as Martin in all honesty. It's a synoptic pattern we've seen before and April is one of the times we most often see it.

The first key is establising where the trough sets up and how it is oriented. Most of the models put the LP to the SW of the UK which will actually mean a more continental and warmer feed for the south than some might think so I'd be thinking warm with showers or rain rather than cool with showers or rain. Not much hope for the East Coast as Haar will be in evidence.

Were the LP to set up over France, we'd be drawing in a cooler feed so dull and cloudy would be the order of the day.

The negative NAO state with heights over Greenland passes into a west-based state and, if you like, "normal" service is resumed which will mean, unfortunately, for us, with the SW-NE movement of pressure systems, the LP will come back up and over us as a weaker trough as, at the same time, heights start draining out of Greenland. I'm uncertain about the GFS OP evolution but it's far too early to be confident as the pattern resets

Martin may be right about the absence of "fine settled spring-like" weather but the upcoming spell will be of considerbale interest.

[knocker]

The ecm 5-10 anomaly this morning is much as expected with HP Greenland and a deep low just SW of Ireland. This has already been covered so moving on to the 10-15 day period.

Not a huge difference with the EPS but the low does move west and north a tad thus introducing a SW flow and some slightly warmer temps but remaining unsettled. The NOAA 8-14 doesn't go along with position of the low preferring to keep it closer and still to the SW leaving the UK still very much under it's influence.

[MP-R]

Plume alert!

(apologies)

In all seriousness, a trough to the SW of the UK is recurring theme for a good part of this month. Where is sets up exactly will govern the conditions at the surface but such a setup could result in anything from persistent chilly rain if the trough moves into the Channel, beefy showers if it lingers to the southwest with southeasterly cyclonic circulation, or as the above charts shows it could move far enough west to usher up warm air again from the Med.

All to play for really. It does, however, look less likely that impressively cold uppers will last too long over the country in the coming week. The northwesterly flow on the most recent GFS run for example spawns a disturbance in the flow which becomes the lingering trough to the SW, cutting off too cold a flow. Lots to watch and certainly not a boring outlook (unless last April's conditions are what you're after).

[stodge]

I think that as the normal SW to NE circulation re-establishes under the West-based negative NAO conditions, the trough will come back into the British Isles. The 06Z OP solution isn't convincing for me - I think it's more likely the trough will come back NE and fill in situ over the British Isles leaving us in a brief Col before the Atlantic returns albeit with the jet back to the north and the likelihood of some decent weather toward the end of the month.

The first issue is where the cut-off LP ends up - as you say. it could be far enough SW to advect some warm air from a SE'ly flow but it could (especially with attendant troughs) be closer to the UK and maintain a more E'ly circulation which would be cooler and cloudier. I don't think that is settled at all yet.

 

[knocker]

Quietly impressive

 

[johnholmes]

Looking at the 6-10 day anomaly charts what is interesting is just how far north the contour lines are drawn from. Proably further north than at any time during the winter, around Hudson Bay and west into Alaska.

EC-GFS for information

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[knocker]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Looking at the 6-10 day anomaly charts what is interesting is just how far north the contour lines are drawn from. Proably further north than at any time during the winter, around Hudson Bay and west into Alaska.

EC-GFS for information

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

I was looking at the main depression for the end of the week and it starts life as a shortwave between Greenland and Iceland and tracking SE to SW of Ireland and introducing some quite cold air into Iberia. Teach em not to choose Cornwall for an Easter break.

 

 

Edited April 4, 2016 by knocker

[stodge]

Evening all

Plenty still to resolve on the position and orientation of next week's LP with the GFS 12Z OP keeping the LP and associated troughs closer to the UK into next week.

36 hours of a stiff and cool NW'ly Wednesday and Thursday before the LP comes south over Ireland and over the SW approaches.

UKM at T+144

ECM at T+144:

GFS at T+144:

GEM at T+144:

Fairly safe to say an unsettled weekend especially the further south and west with rain and showers at times. A possibility for snow to higher elevations especially in Scotland on some output.

[stainesbloke]

Dreadful GFS run if Spring warmth and sunshine is what you're looking for. Troughing sat in basically the same place over the SW of the UK for near on the entire run. Rain, showers, cloud and wind. Yippee! Chance of some decent convective episodes is there though.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I hope this trough isn't going to be parked right where it is for the next six months

[knocker]

The latest EC32 means update is very similar to this on the 14th.

From then until the 19th it rapidly loses the Atlantic high amplification, the strong HP over Greenland is no more as is the cold trough over N. America. The trough adjacent to the UK weakens and retrogresses to mid Atlantic with some positive height rises central Europe. Thus we have a flow from the WSW and a continuation of unsettled weather with temps around normal perhaps a tad higher.

Thereafter until the end of the month a continuation of the zonal flow with LP to the NW and HP to the SW with perhaps the latter taking more interest towards the end of the month but not to read too much into this.

Edited April 5, 2016 by knocker

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY APR 5TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak ridge of High pressure will cross East over the UK today followed by a weakening cold front moving East later tonight leading into a cool and strong showery WNW flow tomorrow and Thursday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain between 5000ft and 7000ft over the next few days under shallow Low pressure dirfting North over the UK. By or on Wednesday the level will rise higher still across the SW for a time before falling to nearer 4000ft behind an Eastward moving cold front by Thursday with snow returning in showers to mountains above 3000ft.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too. Probably staying cool.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to maintain the Jet Stream lying well to the South of the UK in a deep trough like structure for the whole of the output this morning.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to show a disappointing set of charts over the UK for the next few weeks. Instead of the normal flow of Low pressure West to East they look like flowing North to South across the UK next week enhancing the already mostly rather cool and showery weather with some longer spells of rain at times too along with some snow on Northern hills. Some brief drier and brighter spells are of course likely as well especially later in the period when Northern regions especially become drier and brighter under higher pressure.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run shows unsettled conditions across the UK too for the first week at least before a slow but gradual improvement is hinted at as Low pressure weakens and fills up in situ near the UK through the second week allowing for some more benign and warmer conditions to develop by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show a slight shift to the likelihood of more benign conditions in two weeks time as there seems no distinctive pressure type gaining overall control over the UK weather at that time. In among the clusters 10% show High pressure across the UK at that time point and that is a marked improvement from what's been shown of late. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure well in control of conditions across the UK over it's period today. Ending up down to the SW of the UK cyclonic winds around deep Low pressure will ensure plenty more rain and showers to come across the UK over the next 6 days with temperatures suppressed apart from when any brief sunnier breaks occur, these most likely towards the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex situation developing through the latter half of this week and the weekend with rain and showers never far away from all areas. With time Low pressure becomes lodged across and to the SW of the UK with rain and showers for all in average temperatures.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM is also showing a cool and largely unsettled 10 days or so to come as all eyes look to the Northwest and later North for cool Low pressure to move down across or close to the UK is maintained with rain and showers in temperatures near average at best and below at times where rain is persistent.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today is the warmest of the morning's output as it eventually parks Low pressure further West and allows a more enhanced Southerly drift to develop across the UK with temperatures on the rise and the worst of the rain towards the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM shows little sign of Spring warmth and sunshine under High pressure as it's Low pressure all the way eventually settling over or just to the SW of the UK throwing spells of rain and showers at times up across the UK. There will of course be some warmth from any April sunshine between the showers but the showers will often be heavy, thundery and prolonged especially across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure right across the UK with the likely weather being sunshine and showers at best with no doubt some longer spells of rain too but with some compensatory brief warmth from sunshine in between.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable and Low pressure driven period of weather for all is maintained from the models again this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 86.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.4 pts to 61.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.1 pts to 40.5 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  I had some criticism for being a little pessimistic on the charts for yesterday and I have looked this morning for more reasons to be more optimistic but unfortunately I can't fine much reason as Low pressure and cold showers and longer spells of rain is not what most people and I included hope to see at this time of year. Given today's pleasantness I think this is likely to be the best day of this week as cold winds and April showers look likely from tomorrow on and then some longer spells of rain too later on Friday and continuing through the weekend as Low pressure parks itself close to the SW. There will of course be some drier interludes in between the rain and the strength of the sun will make any of this seem pleasant enough but no bright spell looks guaranteed to last with Low pressure so close. Eastern coasts of Scotland could become particularly cold and grey with an onshore breeze and some of the rain in the South could well be heavy and thundery. This theme looks almost set in stone between the models this morning with the exception of NAVGEM which would bring warm Southerly air more definitively up across the UK with rain more restricted towards the West and North. There may also be a slight shift towards better conditions towards the South and East late in the run of GFS supported by it's clusters so that is one straw to clutch but for now however much I try to dress it up there is little evidence of any guaranteed prolonged dry period over the next few weeks which will take us out to the end of April as long as the Jet stream remains South of the UK.

Next Update Wednesday April 6th 2016 from 09:00

[mb018538]

I think the lack of discussion on here speaks volumes....

What an utterly horrible set-up we've landed in. Massive southerly tracking jet, low pressure sat over the UK, and us stuck on the cold side of things. All the while most of the winter was the absolute opposite, with everyone hoping for something like this. Couldn't make it up really. Looks like half of April is pretty much in the dustbin as rainy and unsettled. I'll come back in a few days when things might look a bit better!

[stodge]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

I think the lack of discussion on here speaks volumes....

What an utterly horrible set-up we've landed in. Massive southerly tracking jet, low pressure sat over the UK, and us stuck on the cold side of things. All the while most of the winter was the absolute opposite, with everyone hoping for something like this. Couldn't make it up really. Looks like half of April is pretty much in the dustbin as rainy and unsettled. I'll come back in a few days when things might look a bit better!

Not sure the 06Z OP will be quite as disheartening but we'll see.

It is of course entirely possible that the LP will spin round to the SW and open the door to the N or NE dragging in some thoroughly cool and unpleasant conditions as the 00Z suggested. Until this morning, it had seemed more likely (and the anomalies suggest this as well) the Atlantic ridging would give way next week to something more "traditional" and the SW to NE flow of systems would resume with the possibility of something warmer coming in.

I still think that's the favourite even though the 00Z OP was a way from that bringing the Scandinavian trough into play and pulling cold air down toward us.

It wouldn't be atypical of a post-El Nino winter to have a cold April/May with northern blocking. We've had some very good Aprils in recent times but the likelihood of a slow and faltering spring was well forecast.

[stodge]

Well, as expected, a much warmer and more settled 06Z OP from GFS. The key next week seems to be whether the LP to the SW remains a cut off feature which allows a SE'ly flow to develop as the LP fills in situ or whether the LP comes back NE and links with troughs coming sown from Scandinavia. If the latter, not good at all. If the former, we have a way out and a route to something warmer and more settled.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=204

The Ensembles look finely balanced at this time as you'd expect - not a single one showing anything settled however.

[knocker]

I also don't think it looks that bad. Within the ten day period the upper low looks firmly anchored to the SW which as previously mentioned could portend a gamut of weather conditions ranging from pretty good convective activity in the south but with the odd longer periods of rain thrown in, But it could still feel quite warm in the sunny spells particularly towards the end of the period and overall temps around average.

It appears increasingly likely in the 10 -15 day period that the Greenland blocking will rapidly disappear with the trough to our SW retrogressing to mid Atlantic.leaving the UK in a south westerly upper flow so still remaining somewhat unsettled but temps picking up a little to possibly a little above average.

The low to the SW still dragging cooler air around into Spain.

Edited April 5, 2016 by knocker

[Paul]

The upgraded GFS has gone into official parallel now, and is due to be live on 11th May. Quite a few upgrades in there, including hourly output up to 120 hours.