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Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

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Still no sign of any 20's hitting for the first time this year :( 

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This morning's GFS ops in the 6-10 day period does reflect the GEFS anomaly with the HP to the west and low pressure to the south. In the latter period the theme is a developing trough over the UK with increased ridging in the western Atlantic thus a more meridional set up. Becoming more unsettled and April showers springs to mind with temps around average.

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur3_33.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

 

Edited by knocker

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Needless to sat the ecm ops is not in agreement with the gfs and makes much less of the HP to the west opting for a more unsettled westerly regime.

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY MAR 31ST 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will build across England and Wales with a trough of Low pressure moving SE across Scotland and Northern Ireland tomorrow and stalling across Central Britain on Saturday with a warmer Southerly flow developing across the South for the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK remains at around 3000ft asl over much of the Uk though with limited precipitation any showers will only fall over hills and mountains above about 2500ft and restricted to the spine of the Uk today. Freezing levels will rise more towards 5000ft over West and NW area tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream will develop a trough just to the West of the UK which will infiltrate East across the UK and NW Europe over next week and probably beyond too with low pressure responsible from the Uk to Spain and later to the North as well with a very disorganised flow by then. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a ridge currently building across the UK  while moving SE tomorrow and allowing a trough to move down from the NW. At the same time pressure will fall to the West and showery weather will develop from later in the weekend as the trough over Central regions by then moves back North under a warmer Southerly flow. Then with pressure becoming Low to the SE for a time next week a period of showery and cooler weather will return before pressure builds briefly over the North. Then through Week 2 Low pressure sinking South across the UK would bring further rain and showers and eventual return to a ESE flow from Europe and depending on the source of air would influence the temperatures in the by then showery airflow in the South with dry conditions towards the North and East.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run uses the Azores High as the most influential factor in it's run this morning as any warmth this weekend in a brief warmer Southerly becomes eroded by a switch in winds towards the North and NW with troughs moving SE down across the North and East in particular and delivering some rain and showers in cool air. Then with the High in the Atlantic moving occasionally North and then South again winds are maintained between NW and NE with some chilly and showery conditions to be had for all at times with some frosts at night still.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today as yesterday show complex Low pressure poorly positioned for the time of year, mostly biased to be just to the East or SE of the UK with cold rain and showers the theme of the group with temperatures on the cool side of average at day 14.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a showery and relatively mild two to three days in a Southerly flow early next week before a ridge from the Azores High ridges over the UK and tempers the temperatures somewhat and kills the showers and brings a return to the chance of frost by night again midweek

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a front moving SE into the UK tomorrow displacing the ridge over England and wales SE. Pressure is falling to the West and SW at the weekend and a milder SSE flow will bring some showers into the South and West in particular, perhaps thundery and prolonged in places.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM also shows a milder showery interlude early next week before the ridge shown by other output brings a drier and slightly cooler period midweek. Then later in the run developments in Low pressure to the NW is pulled SE across the UK with rain and showers in tow and with intense High pressure over Greenland to end the period cool and showery conditions is the best we can hope for from it's 10 day setup as Low pressure loiters across the UK with cool East winds across the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too follows the general plan shown by the rest with the milder showery spell at the start of the week displaced by a drier phase under a ridge before Low pressure sinks SE across the UK in a week or so time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM completes the set with the same theme next week culminating in a deep and cold Low pressure zone across the UK in 10 days time with rain and showers and still cold enough for snow on the hills in places and no doubt some unwelcome frosts by night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure anchored across the UK in 10 days time and I se no likely changes in this scenario when this morning's chart is issued with the result being rain and showers continuing across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable period of weather for all is the main theme from the models again this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.4 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.9 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 85.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.6 pts to 59.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.1 pts to 40.5 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  Despite the prospect of some higher temperatures at the weekend I wouldn't want my readers to believe this was the beginning of an early Spring warm spell, far from it in fact as this morning's output illustrates that while waiting all Winter for Northern blocking to occur to no avail lo and behold come April here it is. So with that in mind this weekends pleasant temperatures in the South but with some showers will be eroded away South by midweek under a ridge which looks like bringing quiet and benign weather but in somewhat lower temperatures and the risk of night frosts under any clear skies. It's later next week when things look like taking a nosedive again as Low pressure is pulled down from the NW, supported by by most models and bringing it  return to a spell of rain and more of those cool April showers. In fact by the second week pressure looks like becoming very High to the North or NW and this looks like winds could turn to a chilly Easterly and with Low pressure never far away from the South or SE further rain and showers in cool temperatures seems the most likely eventuality with the chance of some snow in the showers over the hills and some frost at night by the end of the period. Of course how cold any Easterly will be come the time is open to debate and all depends on the source of air over Europe beforehand but with High pressure to the NW I wouldn't mind betting it could still be very chilly on April standards. So there it is another disappointing report if it's warm Spring weather your after but with longer daylight hours now and some useable sunshine between the showers there is some better conditions mixed in with the not so good. here's hoping for something a little better from me tomorrow.

Next Update Thursday March 31st 2016 from 09:00

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Indeed, it's a far from pleasant GFS 00Z output for the south and south-east in particular. The weekend's "warm snap" has pretty much been eroded down to 36 hours with pressure falling away as early as Sunday:

gfs-0-78.png?0

After that, it all gets a bit quiet and indeed a window of opportunity for something more pleasant next midweek:

gfs-0-150.png?0

But that LP coming up from North Africa is the next problem as it sets up over the Low Countries and feeds in a cool NE'ly flow with, I would imagine, plenty of rain and showers:

gfs-0-210.png?0

Not nice for the south eastern half of Britain but the far NW might do well out of such a set up with some shelter. Into deeper FI and, as Martin observes, the Icelandic LP drops south through the British Isles, pressure rises and it's Northern Blocking time which would be fine for the north but the south again on the wrong end of this deal.

ECM looks to be heading toward the same final destination but without the African LP which, to be fair, has been on the GFS output for a while.

Before we all start to panic, the truth is we've been here before, Northern Blocking was due to start next week but has been delayed (perhaps due to developments in North America) and none of the synoptically interesting charts featured in low-res GFS have come close to verfification. There has been enough residual energy in the jet to keep a more traditional Atlantic bias in the weather - whether the final destruction of the PV is at hand and (it wouldn't be unusual for April/May) we are due a significant pattern change, remains very much open to question.

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It now looks like an increasingly mild, albeit increasingly unsettled outlook for the next 5/6 days. We will have a light southerly for a time raising temperatures into the very mild category but during next week winds will turn to a cooler showery northwesterly direction.

On into FI the GEFS mean is indicating chances of an easterly with pressure lowest over southern England. Potentially a warm direction at this time of year, though still unsettled.


Rz500m12.gif

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Not sure I agree with that assessment in all honesty. The OP run for 06Z, whilst a different synoptic evolution to the 00Z as you might expect, isn't really any better for southern parts of the UK and indeed finishes up not dissimilar to the 00Z.

Troughs and LP develop over the UK in the first part of the OP output so from Monday onward it's showers or longer spells of rain for most (perhaps a brief hiatus in that midweek) before a second LP develops and slips south as the Mid-Atlantic ridge heads north and we finish up in an HLB sceanrio.

It may not be "cold" and I concede in any sunshine between the showers it won't be too bad with very light winds but the overall picture would be for me average with perhaps some lengthy April downpours with hail, thunder, wintriness to higher altitudes and local short-lived flooding possible. It's a scenario we often see in April and May as the heat builds and convection gets going.

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A highly messy period for the models goes on. The early part of next week looks better resolved now from a general modelling point of view, but still extremely mixed in terms of surface conditions - not particularly cold if one can miss the showers, but no great confidence that any dry conditions will stick around for long. Further out, and it now seems the ideas of a pressure build from the SW are gone, and indeed it looks increasingly like low pressure is going to be forced south on a regular basis. 

Still waiting for this forecast pressure rise in the north Atlantic, any hints still beyond D8, been waiting since the beginning of February! Maybe this time the hints will be right.

Edited by Man With Beard

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7 hours ago, Milhouse said:

It now looks like an increasingly mild, albeit increasingly unsettled outlook for the next 5/6 days. We will have a light southerly for a time raising temperatures into the very mild category but during next week winds will turn to a cooler showery northwesterly direction.

On into FI the GEFS mean is indicating chances of an easterly with pressure lowest over southern England. Potentially a warm direction at this time of year, though still unsettled.


Rz500m12.gif

 

LOL, yeah for a day, by April max temps around 12C aren't into the very mild category, actually warmer uppers and cloud cover feel cooler than cooler uppers and sunshine, that ensemble mean chart doesn't show a warm easterly as you say, the following days after the 12th show cooler 850's, easterlies aren't a great wind direction in April.

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The most striking thing I see - it's no longer winter!

All hail the Greenie high for summer. :angry:

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High pressure continues to be quite influential until around the middle of next week, ridges to the west and east with the trough situated Iberia with temps above average and overall some quite pleasant weather although the far NW may well be an exception. Thereafter a trough and then an upper low takes the reins and remains in the vacinity of the UK for the rest of the 14 day period. Ergo temps returning to normal and a typical April scenario of showers, perhaps some periods of more continuous rain but also some drier sunny periods that will be quite pleasant.

gefs_t2ma_5d_eur_29.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

Edited by knocker

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY APR 1ST 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure is moving SE across Northern and Western areas decelerating with time to lie across Northern and Western parts of England and Wales tomorrow before moving back North as a milder Southerly flow develops across England and Wales.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will rise over the coming days first in the South and later parts of the North too starting the period at around 4000ft and rising towards 6000ft in the South by Monday taking the freezing level above any summits in England and Wales and possible in Scotland too for a time.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is moving SE across the North Atlantic and returns in a weakened SW moving flow across the UK in the coming days setting up Low pressure near the South of the UK for a time. Thereafter the theme is for the flow to maintain a desire to stay moving SE over the UK and later still well to the South of the UK in a dishevelled form.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows winds backing South, SE and then East over England and Wales over the coming days drawing warmer air North and taking the trough affecting the North and West away to the Northwest. Then from midweek following a brief drier interlude Low pressure from the NW sets up near the UK and for the last week unsettled best describes conditions with rain and showers in temperatures near average but maybe a bit below or above dependent on the final resting place of the Low pressure and the Cyclonic wind source affecting the UK

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run shows a very similar story as the Operational with changeable conditions with showers or outbreaks of rain at times for all areas and after a warmer interlude in the coming days temperatures look likely to become depressed again at times through the remainder of the run, all due to Low pressure moving down from the North later next week and setting up shop in the vicinity of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  Once again the GFS Clusters at the 14 day time point suggest Low pressure likely to be in control of the UK weather with a bias between members for it's position to be over or to the South of Southern Britain although there is also a sizeable group who put the centre more towards the NW suggesting somewhat better conditions in the SE. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows slack Low pressure moving NE across the UK early next week with plenty of showers for all. This then opens the door to the NW for cooler and unsettled conditions to spread down across all areas with further rain at times and winds from a cooler source.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the raw data charts pretty well this morning following the course of Low pressure becoming complex over the coming days and drifting NE early next week displacing the milder period with something rather cooler from the NW later next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM is also showing a similar scenario with conditions turning colder from the NW as we move through next week and ending the period with Low pressure near the UK with plenty of April showers and longer spells of rain for all in colder sourced air from the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is a little different in as much as while the milder and showery period does give way to more unsettled weather from the NW on this run winds are much more Westerly sourced later in the run with Low pressure much further North and while rain at times is likely for all it will feel OK in any sunshine and much of the worst of the rain could focus more towards the North and West rather than elsewhere with time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM sides with the remainder of the pack outside of NAVGEM and brings weather down from the NW and then North later in the run displacing the warmth of this weekend and bringing changeable and sometimes wet and cool conditions later next week and probably beyond as the run ends with complex Low pressure near or over the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure anchored over Ireland indicative of unsettled weather very likely for all in 10 days time with rain and showers for all in cyclonic winds and temperatures near average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable and Low pressure driven period of weather for all is maintained from the models again this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.4 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 85.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.2 pts to 59.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.3 pts to 40.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  April is often a month when we can see huge swings in the weather from day to day as the natural warming of the atmosphere competes with the decaying coldness of Northern latitudes. This often results in big showers and vast temperature differences not only day to day but between night and day too. All of the above is going to be on offer over the coming few weeks if today's ouputs is to be believed and with quite good cross model support I think the output has a good handle on the overall patterning. So we're in a warmer phasing at the moment as winds switch Southerly for several days drawing up warmth from Spain. However, with Low pressure in close proximity with time we have to cater for some of those big April showers and outbreaks of rain. Then as the Low switches to be NE of the UK the door opens next week for colder NW winds to take over with further rain or showers but a return of things feeling rather chilly at times. If anything a lot of output strengthens this Northern sourced air even more through the second week and with Low pressure never looking likely to be far from the UK we will be looking at lots of showers and spells of rain and perhaps still cold enough for snow on the hills of the North. All this is very typical of April so one shouldn't be too surprised to see synoptics that we are. In my experience Northern blocking in Spring often brings the threat of cold and snow we don't often see in the Winter months but as the Southern latitude warmth becomes stronger we often find that the Low pressure near the UK is pulled more towards the NW with time and allows something of the continental warmth to filter into the South and East at times and I feel there are hints of that shown in some of the longer term charts this morning. All this of course in fantasy land at the moment. I won't be around for any update tomorrow but should be back on Sunday with a more in depth look at the models for the coming two weeks.

Next Update Sunday April 3rd 2016 from 09:00

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Not dissimilar to the GEFS the ecm also introduces the trough after the middle of next week and keeps it in close proximity until the 16th.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.png

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It does look a very changeable outlook-typical April-with showers or rain bands coming through as the jet is forced over the top of the Atlantic high and down into Europe.

A view of the gefs at days 5/10

viewimage (1).pngviewimage (2).png

ECM mean at day 10 also going with a UK trough in week 2

EDH1-240.gif

Apart from briefly over the weekend in the se quarter there is no real warmth being modeled coming from more southerly latitudes so temperatures at the surface will be held down for much of the time,although of course in the strengthening sun between the rain bands they will feel ok.

A look at the 2mt temp graph for Warks

gfs temp.png

Nothing unusual for early April i guess and it's very much watching the day to day forecasts when planning any outside activities ,indeed a dry day may be hard to find especially in week 2 as we look to be under the influence of that trough.

Still i am sure there will be some interesting skies about on days with beefy April showers and the warming sun breaking through between them.

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The Gfs 6z op run shows typical April weather, some cool unsettled conditions but also some fine and warmer intervals with temps into the 60's F, especially further south...this Sunday shows parts of the south and east reaching 18 / 19 Celsius which gives us a taste of things to come. I'm not dreaming of a cold April, stuff that! I'm now looking for warmth and hopefully we will have plenty of warmth / heat during the next five months or so!:)

ukmaxtemp.png

hgt500-1000.png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

ukprec.png

ukmaxtemp (2).png

ukmaxtemp (3).png

h850t850eu.png

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14 hours ago, knocker said:

 

Literally, that 11-15d period GFS op image above is like a smack in the face for all winter-lovers!

I just hope it doesn't come to frutition. Nothing but cool temps and rain.

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4 minutes ago, mpkio2 said:

Literally, that 11-15d period GFS op image above is like a smack in the face for all winter-lovers!

I just hope it doesn't come to frutition. Nothing but cool temps and rain.

Oh...................That never crossed my mind.

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52 minutes ago, knocker said:

:shok:

 

Wouldn't surprise me in the least if we hit a strong Nina in time for next winter. With a -ve QBO pretty much would be nailed on for a +AO/NAO and perhaps stormy winter.

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15 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Cansip the model that had the worst medium long term stats ever....Deary me. :D...you miss us from end March don't you Knocker:D

 

 

 i can still pass on little tit bits during your hibernation that I know you will appreciate.:)

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Not had much time to keep up with the models lately, but from what I can see it looks like some interesting times ahead, if not often all that pleasant for a while at least;

h850t850eu.png ecmt850.192.png

The diving trough signal has been strongly in place for some time now, along with its coincidence with the weekend (but of course!). GFS is notably further east with it's position though, resulting in a more unsettled, northwesterly type regime. ECM's relatively clean northerly is a more pleasing concept, as it offers more of a sunshine and showers regime with some very clear skies in between the clouds.

h850t850eu.png ecmt850.240.png

By day 10, GFS has plonked a trough right down onto the NW corner of Europe, keeping us a bit on the cool side and unsettled, but ECM has that trough still further east, which given how far south it reaches, brings the possibility of some unusually warm air for mid-April paying a visit at times - but still with plenty of rain about.

There should, though, be a retrogressive tendency with time given that the westerlies look weak. GFS obliges with this notion, as it has done on and off for a good few days now, with temperatures into the high teens by the end of the run.

h850t850eu.png

...but still threatening to be unstable. Could we see a very wet April this year?

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Strong signal for a mid-Atlantic ridge/UK trough combo for week 2,which would likely provide some decent convective activity at times,along with some chilly nights.

 

ECH1-216.GIF.png814day.03.gif

 

 

AAM forecast to take a nosedive in the next couple of weeks (yet again) but will it actually verify?

 

gfsgwo_1.png

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As has already been suggested good support for ridging in the western Atlantic with a trough over or adjacent to the UK. The ecm is more amplified with the upper low over Ireland. Ergo a slack area of low pressure which could well produce some convective activity albeit temps no great shakes and around average.

No huge difference in the 10-15 day range although the GEFS does weaken the western Atlantic ridging, The ecm is not hugely different to the 5-10.

So it looks very much like an April showers set up with perhaps some periods of more prolonged rain but also some pleasant interludes. Well that's covered all the options.

ecm_eps_z500a_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

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