Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, knocker said:

Ah I see - that's a big swing. Right.

 

Just now, knocker said:

Ah I see - that's a big swing. Right.

If you count the amount that bought in a cold Arctic flow on the 18z (only a few) now nearly half the suite go cold, admittedly the ECM ens are not having it though.

[Summer Sun]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=227.63999938964844&y=34.86000061035156

 

Where is that ENS for? here is the London ENS a cool down towards Easter looking possible at this early stage

[knocker]

Actually I find the interesting movement of the 06z run is that it has swung the Russian trough west over the UK and amplified the pattern in the Atlantic which could have some interesting connotations, particularly for those of the rather odd cold persuasion. Be interesting to see whether this gets any support from the ecm later.

 

Edited March 9, 2016 by knocker

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Actually I find the interesting of the 06z run is that it has swung the Russian trough east over the UK and amplified the pattern in the Atlantic could have some interesting connotations, particularly for those of the rather odd cold persuasion. Be interesting to see whether this gets any support from the ecm later.

 

Don't you mean west Knock's!

that look's peach to me if it's cold/colder weather is what you are after.

[knocker]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Don't you mean west Knock's!

that look's peach to me if it's cold/colder weather is what you are after.

Yes I did notice it have already corrected. Thanks anyway. I keep doing that lately.

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Yes I did notice it have already corrected. Thanks anywayI keep doing that lately.

Was that due to a little  bit of excitement there Knock's

be interesting to see what happens from here,the gfs control run has some nice eyecandy though

but a cold outlier

 

 

Edited March 9, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Where is that ENS for? here is the London ENS a cool down towards Easter looking possible at this early stage

Near my area, we will have to wait to see whether it has ECM EPS support or not, we should know in 24 hours or whether its another GFS / GEFS fantasy nonsense garden path trip again.

[Nouska]

32 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If you count the amount that bought in a cold Arctic flow on the 18z (only a few) now nearly half the suite go cold, admittedly the ECM ens are not having it though.

Did you notice there is an option to show the last four runs on the ensemble graphs from Meteociel - shows your point well, especially the progressive lowering of 500mb temps.

Edited March 9, 2016 by Nouska

[winterof79]

Yes the mean going to -5 by Good Friday.

 

Some much colder options too.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=384

 

Some strange charts are starting to appear.

 

 

Edited March 9, 2016 by winterof79

[Frosty.]

33 minutes ago, knocker said:

 particularly for those of the rather odd cold persuasion.

 

I don't think it's rather odd to still be looking for cold weather, especially as there was no winter across England and Wales, warmest since records began in 1659 and for all I know, the warmest winter since dinosaurs ruled the earth..Anyway, the Gfs 6z keeps some interest for coldies like me who were cheated of a winter yet again! I'm looking forward to the upcoming anticyclonic spell but would love an Arctic blast beyond it...if that makes me odd..so be it!

[Man With Beard]

32 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Did you notice there is an option to show the last four runs on the ensemble graphs from Meteociel - shows your point well, especially the progressive lowering of 500mb temps.

Great find Nouska! 

Demonstrates nicely the trend to throw a cold trough towards the UK from about D12. 

It also all but confirms a pretty stagnant situation for the next 10 days - not particularly warm or cold, and virutally dry. I imagine North and West areas have a better chance of above average temperatures for a while, though.

[feb1991blizzard]

38 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Did you notice there is an option to show the last four runs on the ensemble graphs from Meteociel - shows your point well, especially the progressive lowering of 500mb temps.

Is the colour code just like the usual ensemble runs?

[Banbury]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

If you count the amount that bought in a cold Arctic flow on the 18z (only a few) now nearly half the suite go cold, admittedly the ECM ens are not having it though.

Totally agree

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

If you count the amount that bought in a cold Arctic flow on the 18z (only a few) now nearly half the suite go cold, admittedly the ECM ens are not having it though.

Yes - most ECM members close to 10C during daytime for the same period - pretty average:

[Nouska]

35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is the colour code just like the usual ensemble runs?

In this instance the colours represent the last four GEFS runs - green is oldest, followed by magenta and yellow - blue the most recent run.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Nouska said:

In this instance the colours represent the last four GEFS runs - green is oldest, followed by magenta and yellow - blue the most recent run.

Thanks, thought it was blue that was illustrating the point.

[feb1991blizzard]

Its this Atlantic troughing that's knackering up what could be a quite staggering set up for mid March, you either need it to undercut the block in the textbook fashion and end up over Europe bringing in an Easterly, or preferably you want it pumping WAA up Western Greenland, its what has been stopping any potent Arctic air getting to us on the last few GFS op runs,

AND RIGHT ON CUE - ITS MOVED OUT OF HARMS WAY, this could be a stonker!!!

Edited March 9, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Singularity]

Interesting how a shallow shortwave sneaks across Greenland and then bombs out as it engages with the Siberian vortex lobe. This is the sort of thing that happened in Dec 2010, with the low then drifting south then southwest to the UK. The big difference back then was that the low dropping our way became the primary vortex... with epic results.

This run just absorbs the low into the Siberian vortex, which is what you'd expect to see really. It does have the effect of pulling that lobe to the west, however. Couple that with a less progressive Atlantic (which makes sense to me) and you've got a cold end to the third week of March coming up.

Now just watch the progressive bias push everything east in lower-res 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Interesting how a shallow shortwave sneaks across Greenland and then bombs out as it engages with the Siberian vortex lobe. This is the sort of thing that happened in Dec 2010, with the low then drifting south then southwest to the UK. The big difference back then was that the low dropping our way became the primary vortex... with epic results.

This run just absorbs the low into the Siberian vortex, which is what you'd expect to see really. It does have the effect of pulling that lobe to the west, however. Couple that with a less progressive Atlantic (which makes sense to me) and you've got a cold end to the third week of March coming up.

Now just watch the progressive bias push everything east in lower-res 

I do agree with your comments yesterday that its just about going to be too far East and its because of messy synoptics IMO, I always prefer nice clean evolutions.

[Singularity]

So what would really be happening at this point? Well, you'd have more of a ridge just N of the UK and less to the S, and the shortwave to the west would be sliding SE into cold air. It's almost a given when the vortex has been entirely displaced from the Arctic, regardless of what GFS insists on showing.

I'd say the odds of a notable cold spell in the final 10 days of March have increased today, and due to the depth of cold being exported from the Arctic to our near-NE in 9-10 days time, the snow potential is unusually high, though lying snow being restricted to the overnight hours unless something truly extraordinary happens (which is not out of the question but you'd have to be mad(den) to predict that sort of thing at this range with any degree of confidence).

[Walsall Wood Snow]

17 hours ago, Speedway Slider said:

Yes, sorry, didn't ask this well at all! What was the anomaly that caused the snow in June...?

I can't say I know actually. I'm sure there are people on this forum who know how and why it evolved though. I wasn't even around then as it happened 10 years before I was born, but I have heard about it. I don't think it was a nationwide event though and I'm not sure whether it even affected my area.

[Speedway Slider]

6 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I can't say I know actually. I'm sure there are people on this forum who know how and why it evolved though. I wasn't even around then as it happened 10 years before I was born, but I have heard about it. I don't think it was a nationwide event though and I'm not sure whether it even affected my area.

Perhaps someone can post any charts from the event..... Please?

 

[Eastwoods]

Hi speedway slider found these on meteociel sorry they aren't translated. If you go onto meteociel and search dates in the archive section you can select the dates you require. I believe that 2nd June is the event you are looking for but I couldn't find any anomaly charts perhaps some of the more knowledgeable on here could help further.

[feb1991blizzard]

Here is the GEFS mean at 384.

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here is the GEFS mean at 384.

Impressive mean for 384 hours!