Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[Cloud 10]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Anyone else having issues with the ECM ens? they appear to be stuck on yesterdays 12z

 

Must be a problem as they haven't updated on meteociel or wetterzentrale.

 

NAEFS has updated and is consistently showing a scandi trough setting up shortly after what looks like a very pleasant spring-like spell around next weekend.

 

192 hrs..360 hrs..

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

But this is for nearly a week away. No way set in stone this far out

There is considerable cross model support now for the Azores high to increasingly influence the uk weather by next weekend and further into the following week...at last it looks like high pressure will take centre stage for a welcome change!

[mushymanrob]

13 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

 

i hope so too ira252 !!! but i cannot reasonably pick which noaa charts to believe and which to ignore. i either trust them no matter what they say, or i drop them altogether.

sorry, but todays noaa 500 mb charts still keep the displaced azores ridge just to our west and the mean upper flow across the uk still north of west. i hope they change, i hope this is one occasion when the ops 'beat' the anoms. but they have been proven to be on the ball far far more often then the ops.

so as things stand, the best of the op runs warmth is unlikely to verify imho, not that itll be too bad though but not quite as amplified (warmth). ?

 

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

blast! will be miserable here

......... and there you go, the noaa anomaly charts 'win' yet again, they have had non of the eastward progression (east of our south) of the displaced azores ridge, suggesting with consistency that it sits to our near southwest. 

this is yet another example of the predicted mean trumping the volatile ops, in this case (unfortunately) saying 'no' to the warmest solution recently progged by the ops.

the noaa 500mb charts are having non of the fi deep trough over scandinavia either, so that northerly blast that heralds another cold spell is unlikely to happen too. in saying that though, pressure is expected to be high to our southwest/west ridging northward (as knocker says) , with the upper flow from the west, theres no deep cold spell , but short lived surface colder spells are possible.

of course the noaa's could change, but until they do those charts suggesting a deep scandinavian trough are unlikely to verify.

[mushymanrob]

38 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

But this is for nearly a week away. No way set in stone this far out, just like the winter snow mania charts we were seeing get watered down, why would you expect charts that show mild conditions verify 

sorry to bang on about this...

the difference is that the expected mild weather next weekend has support from the noaa anomaly charts, the 'snow mania' charts didnt.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows a nice settled spell on the way with the Azores high building in by Friday with any rain becoming restricted to northern areas but we all become bone dry through next weekend and through at least the first half of the following week with an intensifying high pressure centred over the UK and the jetstream shunted way north. To me this is better than the gfs 00z with the high centred slightly further east early next week, some pleasantly warm days for the time of year with decent sunny spells but still cold enough at night for a touch of frost and probably mist and fog patches forming under clearer skies too..a nice taste of early spring weather has taken a step closer!

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

the noaa 500mb charts are having non of the fi deep trough over scandinavia either,

actually, just checking, and the noaa's dont actually cover the area other models suggest a deep trough might form. so i might be acting in haste there as the 8-14 day chart does show some pressure decrease.

[chris55]

After what looks like some absolutely lovey settled and warm March weather, the trough over Scandinavia pulls in some fridgid air to the east, now if we could snatch an easterly ........ It would certainly be a month of extremes!

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

After what looks like some absolutely lovey settled and warm March weather, the trough over Scandinavia pulls in some fridgid air to the east, now if we could snatch an easterly ........ It would certainly be a month of extremes!

 

Certainly a possibility. One to keep a tab on for sure- with that depth of cold to the NE any NEly would pack a punch....even come late March!

[Summer Sun]

What a difference a week could make with the 2m max temps

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

What a difference a week could make with the 2m max temps

I'm ready for some spring warmth so I say.. BANK

The models are firming up now on the Azores high bringing a spell of very pleasant early spring weather to the whole of the uk, I'm sure most on here will be happy about that following months of wind and rain!

[Nouska]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

actually, just checking, and the noaa's dont actually cover the area other models suggest a deep trough might form. so i might be acting in haste there as the 8-14 day chart does show some pressure decrease.

I think we need wait a bit to get a clearer picture, especially as upper flow in the stratosphere is going into reverse mode.

The NOAA charts are good but they are a bit like the NHC treatment of hurricane forecasts - no sudden swings - just tweaking, based on ensembles/ops and expert opinion - the changes are very subtle.

I use the analogue charts as well; quite different picture at plus 360 hours.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/index.html#nh

 

Edited March 6, 2016 by Nouska
to make clearer - thanks to Knocker for pointing this out.

[knocker]

By the upper flow going into reverse mode I take it you mean in the Strat. Nouska.

Anyway that chart is not that far away from the GEFS. at T360. A flow from the west with temps dipping a tad below average.

The EPS for the same time isn't so progressive with the retrogression thus the flow N of W.

 

[John Badrick]

15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm ready for some spring warmth so I say.. BANK

The models are firming up now on the Azores high bringing a spell of very pleasant early spring weather to the whole of the uk, I'm sure most on here will be happy about that following months of wind and rain!

10/11 degrees this time of year dosent really do it for me to tell you the truth, would rather a crisp cold eary spring day

[nick sussex]

A nice spell of weather coming up with high pressure near the UK towards next weekend and into the following week. More uncertainty though going into the second half of March as to where this high will go.

Without the background SSW it might end up just meandering about at mid latitude but the AO is likely to drop so it might well get further n/ne than the operationals currently suggest.

 

[Frosty.]

14 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

A full blown Siberian blast is not completely dead in the water.

Not as exciting as this then knocker?..can't say I'm surprised!

Anyway, I'm looking forward to what the models are showing from next weekend and through much of the following week which is looking very pleasant indeed!

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

10/11 degrees this time of year dosent really do it for me to tell you the truth, would rather a crisp cold eary spring day

I thought the models are showing mid teens celsius for the period in question!!!!

[Faronstream]

Chances of colder weather around/after mid month for much/all europe, a White easter is not so far away. As long as the day temperaturer are -2 to -5 below normal the snow on the ground in shadows will remain ( wrong word?)

[March Blizzard]

23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I thought the models are showing mid teens celsius for the period in question!!!!

On the BBC weather site, for my location, it's showing a max no higher than 11C through to the 15th, and it's full of cloud symbols. Suggests a cloudy, nondescript 10-12C high everywhere to me.

Surely, for 15C and above at this time of year, the high will need to be clear to allow the sun to do it's work?

Hope the BBC are wrong and it's clear, would love to see the diurnal ranges and sunshine. Sadly, I think it will be a cloudfest, and I've noticed that the max temps shown on the models have been losing a degree by the day as we get nearer. Just a few days ago there was talk of high teens or potentially even 20C, but now it's looking closer to the March seasonal average maximum temperatures. 

[Frosty.]

Latest news from the woodshed is that week 2 looks predominantly mild and settled with spring like conditions dominating which is what the ecm and gfs is showing! There could then be an unsettled blip but then there is a sign that early April could become more generally settled again..sounds good to me!

[Costa Del Fal]

7 minutes ago, March Blizzard said:

On the BBC weather site, for my location, it's showing a max no higher than 11C through to the 15th, and it's full of cloud symbols. Suggests a cloudy, nondescript 10-12C high everywhere to me.

Surely, for 15C and above at this time of year, the high will need to be clear to allow the sun to do it's work?

Hope the BBC are wrong and it's clear, would love to see the diurnal ranges and sunshine. Sadly, I think it will be a cloudfest, and I've noticed that the max temps shown on the models have been losing a degree by the day as we get nearer. Just a few days ago there was talk of high teens or potentially even 20C, but now it's looking closer to the March seasonal average maximum temperatures. 

Cannot remember 20c ever being modelled? In fact not even 18/19c. 16/17c has looked the max to me all along? 

By the way I always find the symbol forecasts overdo the use of cloud. If it shows light cloud, good chance the reality is actually sunny spells or at least bright.

[March Blizzard]

1 minute ago, Costa Del Fal said:

 Cannot remember 20c ever being modelled? In fact not even 18/19c. 16/17c has looked the max to me all along? 

By the way I always find the symbol forecasts overdo the use of cloud. If it shows light cloud, good chance the reality is actually sunny spells or at least bright.

Never said the models did, I said their was *talk* of it amongst members on here as a possibility. To be fair, that wasn't unreasonable given the output.

Yeah, the models suggested 16/17C maxes recently, but now are nearer 13/14 or below for much of us. Obviously, high teens isn't out the question at all, especially in breaks of any cloud, but perhaps isn't as likely or to be as widespread as thought only very recently.

[Costa Del Fal]

7 minutes ago, March Blizzard said:

Never said the models did, I said their was *talk* of it amongst members on here as a possibility. To be fair, that wasn't unreasonable given the output.

Yeah, the models suggested 16/17C maxes recently, but now are nearer 13/14 or below for much of us. Obviously, high teens isn't out the question at all, especially in breaks of any cloud, but perhaps isn't as likely or to be as widespread as thought only very recently.

Sorry if I misunderstood. Not been feeling to well recently so been reading quite fast to try and catch up on things. 

I suppose what if anything turns out as good as originally modelled with our weather. Lol. Agree to an extent perhaps  the best of the temps look a little less widespread now but nothing unusual to see. Mid teens should be quite achieveable in the sun though and certainly it should feel very pleasant. I'd be stunned if it's a cloud fest, particularly as the high looks to set up shop very close to us or even on top of the U.K. Maybe cloudier at first though as the warm uppers override cold sea temps. 

[Frosty.]

21 minutes ago, March Blizzard said:

On the BBC weather site, for my location, it's showing a max no higher than 11C through to the 15th

Well I choose to be more positive and say I believe we will see temperatures similar to what the gfs is indicating during week 2 which is for mid teens celsius, at least from next weekend and the first 3 days of the following week and incidentally the met office are describing spring like conditions for week 2 which is a big upgrade on their update yesterday!

[mb018538]

All depends where that high ends up...the 16-17c on the ecm a couple of nights ago had it anchored more to the east with southerly winds. As it's currently shown, 11-14c looks more likely with the high sat over the uk. It's still too early in the year for high pressure alone to deliver some warmth!

[mushymanrob]

55 minutes ago, March Blizzard said:

On the BBC weather site, for my location, it's showing a max no higher than 11C through to the 15th, and it's full of cloud symbols. Suggests a cloudy, nondescript 10-12C high everywhere to me.

Surely, for 15C and above at this time of year, the high will need to be clear to allow the sun to do it's work?

Hope the BBC are wrong and it's clear, would love to see the diurnal ranges and sunshine. Sadly, I think it will be a cloudfest, and I've noticed that the max temps shown on the models have been losing a degree by the day as we get nearer. Just a few days ago there was talk of high teens or potentially even 20C, but now it's looking closer to the March seasonal average maximum temperatures. 

indeed, a high sited to our near southwest would probably be a dirty high, but a calm, dry, 10c for mid march isnt bad and as an outdoor worker most welcome ! (although id prefer sunny).