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Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

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1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

bring it on! :yahoo::drunk:bringiton.thumb.gif.7dfbb38357d256a5de74

and yes, the noaa anomaly charts arent a million miles from allowing this :smile:

agree matey, just posted similar thing in whiners thread! shame as we all know it'll downgrade to wet

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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To be honest whilst cold and snowy charts still bear some interest it is nice to see these charts also appearing within the ten day range.

ECM/GFS/GEM

ECM1-240.GIF?03-0   gfs-0-240.png?12   gem-0-240.png?12

All three are trying to build the Azores high into Iberia and eventually edge this northwards to influence a good part of the UK with light winds and temperatures pushing into the mid-teens. Two polarising options going forward into the middle of March with the potential for some proper early Spring warmth but also the chance of something much colder developing again as the models try to retrogress heights westwards and redevelop a Euro trough. Shown by the GEFs anomalies

gens-21-5-240.png   gens-21-5-300.png   gens-21-5-360.png

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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The JMA supports the theme of heights building to our East with trough disruption tracking South East later on.. will the heights link up with that Arctic high?

JN192-21.GIF?03-12

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12z Arpege had the low on Sunday further east with a band of precip over the country

GFS_HGTMSL_099.thumb.png.8d8573b84a2675c

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ECM is being impressively consistent with the theme of a trough extending well south in the Atlantic and high heights building north from Iberia to the UK and then on toward the high latitudes. 

Very interesting to see JMA picking up on the faster route that I mentioned my suspicions about earlier.

I'd add more detail and charts but time is limited, lots to be doing with respect to the snow risks over the next 36 hours!

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For what it's worth, the precip is a lot further east than forecast (at least on the Arpege), might increase/hinder snow prospects for many tonight

.arpege.thumb.png.25067d960480c15cebf8f3crainz.thumb.PNG.b1f5ef07c4abceec4cc63c02

Edited by PerfectStorm

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8 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

For what it's worth, the precip is a lot further east than forecast (at least on the Arpege), might increase/hinder snow prospects for many tonight

.arpege.thumb.png.25067d960480c15cebf8f3crainz.thumb.PNG.b1f5ef07c4abceec4cc63c02

These Arpege charts are in French time - if your radar screenshot is current - 22.00 hours would be a more realistic reference, though the model is still a bit slower in progression.

arpegeuk-1-9-0.png?03-19

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Good to see the "spring crew" finally having the confidence to post about Warmer charts tonight, and indeed the ECM mean continues to push towards warmer outcomes in the D8-D10 period, and I'm guessing mid-teens will be likely for next weekend, maybe even high teens if all falls into place.

 

Some charts continue to suggest there may be a sting in winters tale soon after mid-March but it'll have to be a pretty strong sting - under -4C uppers today we comfortably got into double figures here - now I know I'm on the coast but even so a 14C hike is ridiculous, and it's not been a one-off. I think -8C uppers or colder will be needed now for snowfall, the upper air / surface air just seems to have a giant mis-match - maybe not so strong further north?

Edited by Man With Beard

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54 minutes ago, Singularity said:

ECM is being impressively consistent with the theme of a trough extending well south in the Atlantic and high heights building north from Iberia to the UK and then on toward the high latitudes. 

Very interesting to see JMA picking up on the faster route that I mentioned my suspicions about earlier.

I'd add more detail and charts but time is limited, lots to be doing with respect to the snow risks over the next 36 hours!

 

ECM mean shows good support for those heights shooting northwards..

 

EDH101-240.GIF.thumb.png.459cd1ffda1a338

 

....NAEFS follows on from that and develops a scandi trough around mid-month.

 

naefsnh-0-0-360.thumb.png.a2b8d14d424022

 

SSW begins in a couple of days time.

 

ecmwfzm_u_f72.thumb.gif.40521e534f1ab47c

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3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

bring it on! :yahoo::drunk:bringiton.thumb.gif.7dfbb38357d256a5de74

and yes, the noaa anomaly charts arent a million miles from allowing this :smile:

Bank!

Off to Fuerteventura on Saturday week so a welcome few days with temps in mid-20s down there will be nice.

Edited by Bristle boy

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Increasing risk of snow tonight / early Friday across higher ground of southern Scotland,, N England, N Wales and perhaps N Midlands - as pool of colder air, currently bringing snow showers across western Ireland, pushes east and engages rain becoming slow-moving across these areas. Might see snow to lower levels in these areas in heavier bursts. More on this in my blog here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=7197;sess=

Longer-term, turning milder by Wednesday and for the rest of the week, as Atlantic low pressure systems bring spells of wind and rain eastward across all parts. 

Some uncertainty on how long this cyclonic Atlantic mobility and much milder conditions will last ... extended 12z EPS and, to a certain extent, the 12z GEFS continue a retrogression of the 500mb pattern in the means and anomalies. With retrogression of the Greenland-centric trop  PV, a +height anomaly developing over NE Atlantic/Norwegian Sea which eventually retogresses too, whilst trop PV over eastern Siberia backs west over Russia, with troughing deepens over Europe by day15. Could be the result of models picking up on the major SSW.

So, we could still be on track for a return of colder conditions in late March, though, for now, EPS doesn't suggest anything particularly cold from the 850mb temp anomalies at day 15.

Edited by Nick F

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Just an update on the snow for a few have been fortunate.  Snow has fallen to less than a 100 meters tonight in North West Wales.  Even to sea level nearly.  Sorry mods but I'd seen a few posts above on snow details. 

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The GFS 18z reminds us not to write off the potential depth of cold even in the third week of March;

npsh500.png npsh500.png  npsh500.png

 

See how those bright purple colours move toward the UK? That's pretty much the only major area of properly deep cold on the Eurasian continent being brought our way, and by a manner of HLB that is well in line with the evolving stratospheric setup.

h850t850eu.png

That cold air to the N and NE wouldn't look out of place in late December.

 

There are big caveats though; the alignment of the stratospheric vortex split remains a little uncertain, and the manner of propagation to the surface more so. I'm not sure what would get in the way of propagation to the troposphere given a bona-fide split vortex SSW taking place; the impact on the AO (a.k.a. the NAM in the stratosphere) usually travels down with great speed following such events.

The MJO is also of some interest but whereas it once looked to be a means of linking the early month chill with the mid-to-late-month cold, it now appears it may simply lend a hand in turning a week-2 milder interlude into a mid-to-late-month cold spell.

I say may, as the way the MJO defied the model projections today implies to me that next week could yet see the Azores High nosing north while more W of the UK. I must say though, a few properly springlike days wouldn't go amiss...

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Just For Fun .........................never say never lol

gensnh-19-1-336.png?18

And another

gensnh-18-1-348.png

gensnh-16-1-312.png

gensnh-15-1-384.png?18

gensnh-12-1-336.png

gensnh-11-1-360.png?18

Only looked at 20 back to 11 .....................very interesting , never say never lol

Edited by Banbury

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY MAR 4TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A Low pressure area across England and Wales this morning will pull away SE over the next 24 hours with an associated occluded front across Northern England continuing to pivot and move back SE tonight and tomorrow as a chilly Northerly flow establishes across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will be lowest across Northern England and North Wales this morning at around 500-1000ft while elsewhere and later in the above areas too the level rises to nearer 2000ft. Snowfall to low levels across Northern England early today will turn to rain and sleet below 1000ft through the day as it trends back SE'wards.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Rather cold and breezy at first with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Then becoming less cold but windy with rain at times especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is shown to continue to blow SE or South across the UK and Western Europe in association with Low pressure over or to the East of the UK for the next 3-4 days. Thereafter the pattern becomes more variable with the general theme of changing the orientation of the flow West to East still indicated but somewhat less well defined than was shown yesterday.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows another 4 or so days of rather cold conditions as our airflow remains sourced from Northerly latitudes bringing occasional outbreaks of rain, sleet and hill snow. Then by midweek a weakening ridge crosses East over the UK with fine and bright conditions for a time. Westerly winds follow strengthening markedly in the North with fronts crossing the UK West to East delivering rain at times. Then through the second week more settled weather looks likely to extend slowly North across the UK as High pressure builds up over the UK with fine and settled weather with quite Springlike daytime conditions likely with patchy overnight frosts returning. the run then ends with somewhat more changeable and perhaps chillier conditions returning to some parts as pressure falls somewhat especially in the North.  

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run follows a similar course to the operational run with the first week cold and changeable with some rain, sleet or snow at times before a spell of milder Westerly winds towards the end of next week leads into the second week becoming fine and settled and by day quite Springlike in bright sunshine and light winds as strong High pressure area migrates North and settles across the UK. By night clear skies and frost is likely while towards the end of the run it looks like becoming slightly more changeable again.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show a bias towards High pressure lying close to the SW of the UK in two weeks time with light winds in the South and a lot of fine weather while the North sees some rain at times in an Atlantic flow. Just a 10% cluster show a more definitive Westerly flow with rain at times for all. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning extends the cold and changeable theme for an extra day today as it shows another trough disrupting across the UK towards the middle of next week before a Westerly flow overpowers the Northerly winds across the UK and NW Europe later in the week with less cold and changeable Westerly winds with rain at times type of weather then likely for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex and rather cold pattern of weather across the UK over the next 5 days as troughs of Low pressure continue to move into the UK from the NW into cold air and delivering occasional rain and hill wintriness.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning is also showing a delay in milder Atlantic Westerly winds too arriving next week as the cold Northerly feed is reluctant to clear the east coast midweek. So further rather cold and changeable weather up to around Wednesday of next week. Thereafter the pattern remains quite blocked as High pressure builds over the UK and eventually Scandinavia too bringing fine and bright conditions with frosts at night with the chance of things turning rather cold again later as winds threaten to turn Easterly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the end to the current pattern by the middle of next week as the SE moving weather systems become cut off by a ridge of High pressure crossing East over the UK and followed by milder Westerly winds with rain at times for many from midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today also hinders the extent to which milder Atlantic winds extend across the UK next week with the main push delayed until Thursday when all areas become less cold with rain at times following the rather cold and changeable theme in a Northerly flow up to that point. then towards next weekend and beyond with High pressure building close to SE Britain there is strong potential for things to turn quite Springlike across the South at least as balmy South or SE winds sourced from Southern Europe waft up across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows High pressure close to SE Britain or thereabouts with a resultant mild and balmy Southerly drift across the UK with temperatures likely to exceed average levels for some as a result and certainly much milder than recently for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The pattern between the models appear to be continuing to give good cross model support for  a change to milder Westerly winds arriving across the UK delayed just a little from what was shown yesterday.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.1 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.6 pts to UKMO at 88.3 pts and GFS at 86.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.7 pts to 62.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 50.1 pts to 47.4 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The model outputs this morning continue the main theme of the last few days in that the current chilly and rather changeable spell is still expected to give way to rather milder Westerly winds later next week. There is some signs of a slight delay in this happening particularly from UKMO which shows another advancing trough midweek disrupting across the UK as it stagnates against the cold block. However, it appears just a short delay as the end of the week looks milder for all with some rain at times and temperatures back up to average levels at least. It's then all about how long this pattern lasts as there is quite a lot of evidence of High pressure building up from the South with time and settling the weather down especially in the South during the second week. Some output wholeheartedly brings High pressure right across the UK with fine and sunny early Spring conditions by day with frosty nights while some also build High pressure back to the NE and threaten a return to rather chilly weather later. ECM on the other hand has High pressure positioned such at the end of it's run that would bring early Spring warmth up across the UK from a source near the Med and this theme has been indicated within it's 10 day Mean Chart for the last few days with this morning's chart being no exception to that theme. So in a nutshell the rather cold and changeable theme with some rain and hill snow continues until the middle of next week before a change to a less cold period with rain at times especially in the North leads into the chance of fine and settled conditions developing under High pressure in the second week with bright sunny days and the risk of overnight frosts returning.. All in all not a bad set of output this morning which offers many of the variables that can normally be on offer in march with nothing at all alarmist on view this morning.

Next Update Saturday March 5th 2016 from 09:00

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whats happen to SSW i see no signs of anything  in the models in their latter output of anything severe cold,the bbc forecast about it seemed confident we could see signs of winds coming from siberia,but nothing shows this yet ,are the models not picking it up yet :(

 

 

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9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

whats happen to SSW i see no signs of anything  in the models in their latter output of anything severe cold,the bbc forecast about it seemed confident we could see signs of winds coming from siberia,but nothing shows this yet ,are the models not picking it up yet :(

 

 

At the risk of being facetious, the important thing here is the first S in SSW. Sudden. We could just see a sudden appearance of cold weather on the models or then again, we may not. An SSW is no guarantee of wintry nirvana.

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3 minutes ago, solarcycle said:

At the risk of being facetious, the important thing here is the first S in SSW. Sudden. We could just see a sudden appearance of cold weather on the models or then again, we may not. An SSW is no guarantee of wintry nirvana.

the jan 2013 cold spell happened quite quickly ,after the met office mentioned the SSW was about to occur ,so maybe as you say it will suddenly be picked up on by the models soon,and they are expecting several ssw this month i think fergie said.

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28 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

the jan 2013 cold spell happened quite quickly ,after the met office mentioned the SSW was about to occur ,so maybe as you say it will suddenly be picked up on by the models soon,and they are expecting several ssw this month i think fergie said.

It's only beginning. Then await downwell as below image.thumb.jpg.49aa2a05c604156d0133ed71So 11th March to get -AO.

After that who knows what will occur. Should be WAA's into polar region with HL blocking within 5 days. Where that will happen we need to see. 

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5 minutes ago, KyleHenry said:

It's only beginning. Then await downwell as below image.thumb.jpg.49aa2a05c604156d0133ed71So 11th March to get -AO.

After that who knows what will occur. Should be WAA's into polar region with HL blocking within 5 days. Where that will happen we need to see. 

That's what I would expect to happen .

 I computer can correctly guess the outcome but going by experience I would say lots of Northern blocking to come and a cold second half of March.  Or at least Europe as a whole going cold.  It's only to expect ramifications once the warming begins to downwell.

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A couple of posts having a dig at the Met office have been removed as they add nothing to this thread.

As we know the MO is the same as any other agency and uses the latest modeling for their outlooks.The further ahead we look the more likely things change.

Most of us have been following the weather models long enough to know this so it's perhaps unfair to criticise  them when all they are doing is reflecting the latest information.

Ok then back to our own views on the models we can see.

Cheers all.

 

Edited by phil nw.

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