Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[winterof79]

It will feel well below average for some tomorrow

[The PIT]

Well local forecast shows it to be cold for us at 3C at the GFS rather cold at 5C to 6C.

That sort of temp difference takes the prospect of snow from good to very marginal. I know more factors which John has provided which I find very useful for predicting snow and it seems very accurate.

The Low of Friday slipping SE looks very good for us at the moment. Plenty of time to change yet though.  A shift north means rain and a shift south dry and boring.

[MR EXTREMES]

On 28 February 2016 at 11:23 AM, Cloud 10 said:

6 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Well local forecast shows it to be cold for us at 3C at the GFS rather cold at 5C to 6C.

That sort of temp difference takes the prospect of snow from good to very marginal. I know more factors which John has provided which I find very useful for predicting snow and it seems very accurate.

The Low of Friday slipping SE looks very good for us at the moment. Plenty of time to change yet though.  A shift north means rain and a shift south dry and boring.

Certainly nothing of interest in the south in the coming days feeling exhausted by this winters models but over all the glosea model done very good.

be happy when the weather decides to settle with warmth this is slowly showing north and east tend to be cooler.

certainly not exceptional for March but some wintry weather to get threw from midlands north northwest and northeast later in the runs before pressure builds or topples over the uk bringing dryer but still chilly night temps.

[mushymanrob]

21 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

It will feel well below average for some tomorrow

you mean cold?...

indeed after a stunning period today (here at least) where it really felt like spring had sprung, its back to a rather cooler rather miserable day tomorrow. i feel though that in any sun it will feel ok.

[Man With Beard]

6 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Certainly nothing of interest in the south in the coming days feeling exhausted by this winters models but over all the glosea model done very good.

be happy when the weather decides to settle with warmth this is slowly showing north and east tend to be cooler.

certainly not exceptional for March but some wintry weather to get threw from midlands north northwest and northeast later in the runs before pressure builds or topples over the uk bringing dryer but still chilly night temps

(Hello my fellow Pompey inhabitant!)

Glosea hasn't totally nailed things though - height rises to the west have not been to the extent they predicted - no proper Greenland High, just slight northwards ridging of the Azores High, and I do remember originally they went for well below average to the west of the UK, which I don't think has happened.

As for March - it hasn't happened yet! We can easily see that the idea of a cold March/April could easily get derailed within 7 days time (see my earlier post) - still no conclusive sign of northern blocking appearing IMO - the Glosea may be right but it looks like a nervous wait to see if it actually will be - I'm smelling the Azores High coming our way by mid-month, though...

[Polar Maritime]

Can we try and use the general chat threads for anything other than model discussion, Thanks.

[johnholmes]

Nothing in the anomaly charts to suggest what MWB infers, see links below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Mucka]

Snow for everyone says GFS 12z (usual GFS ppn chart caveats apply)

[Eskimo]

With dew points below freezing and thicknesses being very favourable, even lowland areas could cop a heavy/prolonged snow shower, judging by the charts.

...heck, even Hull could see something white. 

[winterof79]

58 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

you mean cold?...

indeed after a stunning period today (here at least) where it really felt like spring had sprung, its back to a rather cooler rather miserable day tomorrow. i feel though that in any sun it will feel ok.

I think the wind may scupper that possibly

[Captain Shortwave]

It is all about those secondary lows, we have two of these crossing the UK in the next 36 hours, both give the risk of snowfall down to low levels.

The first tracks ESE through central/northern England

The second moves down the east coast Wednesday night

With 850s of -6C embedded within the organised bands of showers and low thicknesses, a chance of a light covering in places.

[Polar Maritime]

GFS 12z Snow risk for Wed/Friday, All subject to change but plenty of 'scope' under some pretty unstable air..

Edited March 1, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[weirpig]

latest Hirlam brings the main snow band slightly further south with again wales northern england  and the midlands  seeing snow . drifting down to the soth east east 

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Nothing in the anomaly charts to suggest what MWB infers, see links below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

ah, but the effects of the Azores High may be getting nearer, wouldn't you agree?

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

EDIT: Re-reading my original post, perhaps I wasn't clear enough - clearly the Azores High is unlikely to go over the UK, but it may be close enough to affect our weather rather more - that's what I meant

Edited March 1, 2016 by Man With Beard

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

we are about to see one very strong SSW , record breaking ?? Not sure but to have the winds reverse to -70 m/s that's litterely going as strong as any average zonal wind states in any 1 season , the difference ? The wind is going the other way lol . Really feel this should blow the vortex to bits , makes me think may we be in for a rapid response ? Not sure but make no mistake we are about to witness a very strong warming which undoubtedly will have massive ramifications for the northern hemisphere come mid/late month . It will be great to get fridged air into Europe .

Edited March 1, 2016 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Mucka]

Latest Euro4 quite a downgrade, especially accumulations to low levels Northern England, with snow primarily reserved for Scotland and Northern hills.

Shame but not written in stone by any means.

[Banbury]

Some white stuff at last for a few

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Latest Euro4 quite a downgrade, especially accumulations to low levels Northern England, with snow primarily reserved for Scotland and Northern hills.

Shame but not written in stone by any means.

Stick with the hirlam it shows more snow

[Banbury]

Lets hope this verifies , be good to see the white stuff falling tomorrow

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

we are about to see one very strong SSW , record breaking ?? Not sure but to have the winds reverse to -70 m/s that's litterely going as strong as any average zonal wind states in any 1 season , the difference ? The wind is going the other way lol . Really feel this should blow the vortex to bits , makes me think may we be in for a rapid response ? Not sure but make no mistake we are about to witness a very strong warming which undoubtedly will have massive ramifications for the northern hemisphere come mid/late month . It will be great to get fridged air into Europe .

Apparently though according to latest UKMO thinking, it wont actually be the end of the Stratospheric vortex for the end of the winter, very surpising.

[Paul]

Our NetWX 4km model is actually quite bullish in terms of lying snow over the next 48 hours tonight - mostly but not solely higher up. All knife edge stuff though, so I'd fully expect changes. 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Paul said:

Our NetWX 4km model is actually quite bullish in terms of lying snow over the next 48 hours tonight - mostly but not solely higher up. All knife edge stuff though, so I'd fully expect changes. 

 

Problem is it melts really quickly (even over the pennines)

[Paul]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Problem is it melts really quickly (even over the pennines)

Yes, snow does melt it's true. Who'd have thunk it!

[chris55]

4 minutes ago, Paul said:

Yes, snow does melt it's true. Who'd have thunk it!

It doesn't melt if its cold lol.

Edited March 1, 2016 by chris55

[The Northern Ramper]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Problem is it melts really quickly (even over the pennines)

If we don't see snow tomorrow i'm moving to the moans thread fulltime.