Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[winterof79]

Pretty unstable flow setting up.DPs etc okay

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Nouska said:

The ECM 156 and 162 hour precipitation charts from Icelandic weather service.

   

That looks a cracker

[fergieweather]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Pretty unstable flow setting up.DPs etc okay

 

Euro4 has a known systemic issue with modelling WBFL too low. Treat PPN phase output with due caution. 12z EC for Friday generates snow Midlands/Wales/Cotswolds (ie close to 12z UKMO-GM idea), but also extending ESE across M4 towards Thames Valley etc. But given that the critical nuance element of this evolution (emerging from US) for Friday won't happen & be assimilated until Weds, expect continuing run to run variation in how models handle things until mid-week. Hopefully we will see better coherence after Weds.

[nick sussex]

Looking at the models they don't show any fast response to the major SSW.

Sometimes we see a quick initial  response, others this takes time to propagate down. Its hard to imagine this won't have some effect:

That's a big reversal and the strongest I've seen in terms of a major SSW.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Winter is certainly not done! The fun and frolics start now

[fergieweather]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hi, just wondering though what the current prognosis for NW England on Wednesday morning, my location has heavy snow symbol on the BBC website for a few hours.

Heavy wintry showers likely. Extent of any settling at lower elevations will be very variable.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Looking at the models they don't show any fast response to the major SSW.

Sometimes we see a quick initial  response, others this takes time to propagate down. Its hard to imagine this won't have some effect:

That's a big reversal and the strongest I've seen in terms of a major SSW.

 

Yes, its a pity its late, that would really be a stonker on Jan 1st, can we not save that up until next winter and not waste it on spring annoying heat fans!!!

[cyclonic happiness]

why do we have to keep seeing this? does it really come to the fact that we cannot have winter until spring?

This has been the most evil of years' model watching ever :-(

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, its a pity its late, that would really be a stonker on Jan 1st, can we not save that up until next winter and not waste it on spring annoying heat fans!!!

True, slightly too late to cause many good snowfalls away from the hills Midlands Northwards. Can't see much hope for decent snowfalls for us in the SW after mid month, although guess it can happen. It will be interesting to see if the effects of a SSW kick in quickly or not.

[nick sussex]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, its a pity its late, that would really be a stonker on Jan 1st, can we not save that up until next winter and not waste it on spring annoying heat fans!!!

True, its the same with the models. I wish I had a time machine and could bring us back to January. On the plus side if anyones going skiing the conditions are great and with another Euro trough by the weekend loads more snow to come.

I think with March snowfalls you need that bit of luck with timing, but you also get the benefit of those colder downdrafts with Arctic airmasses. Twice in London I've seen some amazing snowfall with those heavy showers bringing the freezing level down.

And historically theres been some very good snow events which are etched in the memory because they often missed my location! lol

The bitterness and trauma of missing out is still imprinted!

 

 

Edited February 29, 2016 by nick sussex

[knocker]

This evening's 6-10 anomalies all have the HP ridging just to the west of the UK with the trough sinking down to southern Europe. Thus a continuation of the NW flow theme but more under the influence of the HP signally a period of more settled and drier weather albeit with the temps still depressed and below average.

In the 10-15 period the HP weakens and slides east and changes orientation and with a trough in the western Atlantic this has the affect of backing the upper flow and introducing more unsettled weather again, particularly in northern areas, but the temps should ease up to nearer average.

Edited February 29, 2016 by knocker

[Banbury]

One thing for sure is that it gives the belief that we can truely have a truely memorable severe spell of cold wintry weather , the synoptics can be right, its just the  timing .........if this all happened as little as four weeks ago we'd be jumping for joy................or I should say very hopeful, our time will come .

[bobbydog]

well i've been keeping an eye on the models for the past few days (well actually all winter- but like everyone else, im now hoping we get a miracle and i am the eternal optimist).  however, in the real world, though we are facing a couple of chilly weeks, winter will not be arriving in force, to throw us into a media hyped 'snowmageddon'. if you want to see snow falling from the sky, thats a good probability. if you want (like me) a winter wonderland then give up now. we do have this label of "coldies" which is used often to describe winter lovers. now i do appreciate that some do like the cold but i just want snow. a proper winter.  a bit of frost is pretty in the morning but today was the final realisation for me. i was out in the garden today making a bunk-bed ladder for a customer. the weather was dry and sunny which meant i could do it outside rather than my workshop and i actually had to take my jumper off because i was too hot! 

to be honest, i'm not a 'coldie' i'm an extreme weather fan. bone chilling cold,  deep snow, powerful storms, floods, thunderstorms and tropical heat. that does it for me. the whole range. chilly with a bit of sleet does not.

sod the cold spring, if its not going to snow, the cold can bugger off and let the sun shine!

[bryan629]

OOOO.... This makes for some juicy reading..... Cohens Latest blog .

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Quote ... """" With the PV moving bodily into the Eurasian continent, this is likely where the largest negative temperature departures are expected for the month of March. With the PV predicted to be displaced so far south across the Eurasian continent, easterly flow will become better established in the stratosphere across northern Eurasia over the next two weeks. This same circulation pattern should eventually become established in the troposphere as well.  Easterly flow across the continent will inhibit milder, maritime air from entering northern Eurasia through Europe and instead easterly flow will allow cold continental air from Siberia to become widespread.   SSW and a negative AO are most strongly related with below normal temperatures across Siberia and this relationship should hold for March.  Cold air from Siberia has flowed most easily into East Asia this winter and there is little reason to expect differently for the remainder of the winter season.  However with the PV or a lobe of the PV sitting directly over Europe, northerly and/or easterly flow is favored in the coming weeks and therefore the risk of continental/Arctic air finally making its way to Europe is increased in the coming weeks. """  unquote !! 

 

[Speedway Slider]

1 hour ago, Spah1 said:

Google

Yes, I have found some info on the pv, just seems very Americanized, I was hoping for A more Great Britainised version.... Not to worry, I will continue with the Americanized flavour..

[weirpig]

hirlam as majority of precipitation over wales the north of england and parts of the midlands on wednesday .  some espicially the north may get  a covering

[Weather Observer]

I signed up in December for the winter cold and snow ride. So what as a seasoned newcomer have I learnt from following the models and comments on this thread as it ends?

First, that the weather gods are alive and well up in the stratosphere, hammering away, with chunks of ice ,fire and brimstone raining down upon us, The only problem is we can't predict where and when.

Then we have the men in grey suits who follow the anomaly charts and ensembles means. Okay if that floats your boat.

Then we have the roller coaster gang who follow every frame of every model. Okay if you are young and fit enough.

Last are my old bones, which tell me I will be back next winter. 

 

Edited March 1, 2016 by Weathervane
typo

[Polar Maritime]

NetWx-SR take for Wednesdays snow risk, All subject to change..

Edited February 29, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[winterof79]

20 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

well i've been keeping an eye on the models for the past few days (well actually all winter- but like everyone else, im now hoping we get a miracle and i am the eternal optimist).  however, in the real world, though we are facing a couple of chilly weeks, winter will not be arriving in force, to throw us into a media hyped 'snowmageddon'. if you want to see snow falling from the sky, thats a good probability. if you want (like me) a winter wonderland then give up now. we do have this label of "coldies" which is used often to describe winter lovers. now i do appreciate that some do like the cold but i just want snow. a proper winter.  a bit of frost is pretty in the morning but today was the final realisation for me. i was out in the garden today making a bunk-bed ladder for a customer. the weather was dry and sunny which meant i could do it outside rather than my workshop and i actually had to take my jumper off because i was too hot! 

to be honest, i'm not a 'coldie' i'm an extreme weather fan. bone chilling cold,  deep snow, powerful storms, floods, thunderstorms and tropical heat. that does it for me. the whole range. chilly with a bit of sleet does not.

sod the cold spring, if its not going to snow, the cold can bugger off and let the sun shine!

I was up a scaffold in Ormskirk and bl--dy freezing Bobbydog, which just highlights the variation we experience on our relatively small Island. 

 The  n/westerly does what it says on the tin really and will only drive the showers so far inland. From past experience though West Lancs and the Pennines will do okay mid week. Hopefully the S/W can get into the action later in the week.

[knocker]

 

[Banbury]

Latest 96 and 120 fax charts, dont rule odd wintry ppn in favoured spots on Saturday

[fergieweather]

Tonight's EC Monthly retains the colder than average, effectively northerly-dominated regime all the way through March. So, continuity with the last run.

[Banbury]

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2016/02/29/basis18/ukuk/rart/16030206_2_2918.gif

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2016/02/29/basis18/ukuk/rart/16030212_2_2918.gif

 

Flakes falling for a few on Wednesday

[Polar Maritime]

Plenty of snow showers being blown South from Friday into next week, On a cold Northerly flow..

Edited February 29, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Banbury]

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2016/02/29/basis18/ukuk/rart/16030518_2_2918.gif

Snow showers a plenty on Saturday