Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[Nick F]

Extended 12z EPS mean and anomalies suggest Atlantic ridge building NE across the UK from day 10 and by day 15 the Russian high joining to create a strong +ve height anomaly centred over the Norwegian Sea and -ve anomaly from the Atlantic across Southern Europe and the Mediterranean. Which would suggest an increased chance of a flow from the NE or E. However, 850 temperature anomalies don't look too exciting, average in the north to slightly below for southern UK + France and Iberia, while  Scandinavia is above average. 

Despite the signal for what would otherwise be a fantastic synoptic pattern, first time I've seen from EPS this winter such a strong signal for a -NAO, given the protracted lack of cold to our east, I think we would be better off with a sustained northerly as we head through early March to have any chance of snow for lowland Britain away from Scotland. As the high Arctic looks likely now to be the only area with deep cold to tap into. 

Edited February 28, 2016 by Nick F

[feb1991blizzard]

26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

an observation on the latest eps - those 'unlikely' gfs fi runs playing with a scandi high and an easterly feed have approx 30% support as we head through week 2. signs on the mean/anomoly charts of the jet becoming flat south of us and undercutting a generally blocked area to our north and northeast.

What is the potential cold pool like though, I can very easily see the scenario you mention panning out like that but I doubt the uppers will be anything to shout about, we would need -10c absolute maximum.

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What is the potential cold pool like though, I can very easily see the scenario you mention panning out like that but I doubt the uppers will be anything to shout about, we would need -10c absolute maximum.

you're right to ask and as nick has alluded - they aren't deeply cold. Looks like a 10% chance at best of advecting uppers sub -10 on the probability maps

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, bluearmy said:

you're right to ask and as nick has alluded - they aren't deeply cold. Looks like a 10% chance at best of advecting uppers sub -10 on the probability maps

Thanks, I thought as much, I'm not throwing in the towel right now and never would do at this stage (late April 1981 being a case in point at only about -8c 850mb) but the fact remains that at no point have any ensemble suites members in any quantity flatlined below -10c 850mb temps, its no good having spaghetti below -10, you need consistency to guarantee things and as Nick S said the other day, its almost as if -10c wouldn't be good enough this winter as everything has conspired against us.

[stodge]

Evening all

Once again, a few general observations on the evening's 12Z output:

1) UKMO is eye-catching for fans of cold - a 36-hour mild snap followed by the first N or NNW'ly incursion of the week and ending with a NE'ly over the south. It reminds me of some of the UKM output we saw just before the mid-January colder spell and, to be fair, in some respects UKMO was consistent unlike the GFS and ECM.

2) GFS continues to be uninspiring after next weekend - the HP topples east and it requires the final push of the PV to Scandinavia to offer the possibility of retrogression at mid-Month. That said, and as others have commented, there's a fair minority of members offering HLB in the Ensemble so it's an option certainly on the table so we'll need to see how the signals develop through midweek. I'm more concerned about the Parallel which keeps a milder theme with the PV still with enough energy to hold the jet in place and at strength. I'd really like to see the Parallel in the cold casmp.

3) ECM tantalises with a possible progression to a Scandi HP but it's not too far removed from the GFS in all honesty. 

The question for most of the output is how long the colder airflow can be sustained next weekend before either a) the Atlantic re-asserts or b) we see the transition to a more blocked scenario.

[weirpig]

On 2/24/2016 at 11:55 PM, feb1991blizzard said:

Must admit I'm a little underwhelmed, the ridge is far enough North on the first cluster rep but the low  centered a bit too SW (would rather a bit further East), the Second one has the low far enough East but not sure the ridge is far enough North to get any cold air injected, probably me being thick but cant read the isotherms, thanks anyway though Ian for posting them,

Might struggle to stick   but as early as wednesdy some might see some of the white stuff.

[weirpig]

and again on friday  mmm  

[fergieweather]

8 minutes ago, stodge said:

The question for most of the output is how long the colder airflow can be sustained next weekend before either a) the Atlantic re-asserts or b) we see the transition to a more blocked scenario.

No strong support for outcome a) in 12z ECMWF clustering. All 51 ENS agree on the broad deterministic outcome by next weekend (with risk of snow across Wales/much of W Country, *if* it were to verify 'as is'). The dichotomy by 10th onwards is some growing split between members maintaining +ve MSLP to W or building such up to NW, versus an increasing number doing so across Scandinavia. Either way, there's presently no compelling evidence for Atlantic mobility being re-asserted out to mid-month.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, weirpig said:

and again on friday  mmm  

And up North its actually getting backed up by BBC automated forecasts which are generated by UKMO output, maybe ive spoke too soon.

[Faronstream]

28 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thanks, I thought as much, I'm not throwing in the towel right now and never would do at this stage (late April 1981 being a case in point at only about -8c 850mb) but the fact remains that at no point have any ensemble suites members in any quantity flatlined below -10c 850mb temps, its no good having spaghetti below -10, you need consistency to guarantee things and as Nick S said the other day, its almost as if -10c wouldn't be good enough this winter as everything has conspired against us.

I agree with you, Both GFS and ECMWF has downgraded the 850hpa temps the last 3 days, every time we see cold air in long range they dissapear when we get closer to the date

This Winter reminds us of the summer 2012, warm air was always and the end of long range forecasts but never made it up to W Europé, it just touched Germany and Poland for 1-2 days before going easterly

[Guest]

14 hours ago, Nick F said:

Extended 12z EPS mean and anomalies suggest Atlantic ridge building NE across the UK from day 10 and by day 15 the Russian high joining to create a strong +ve height anomaly centred over the Norwegian Sea and -ve anomaly from the Atlantic across Southern Europe and the Mediterranean. Which would suggest an increased chance of a flow from the NE or E. However, 850 temperature anomalies don't look too exciting, average in the north to slightly below for southern UK + France and Iberia, while  Scandinavia is above average. 

Despite the signal for what would otherwise be a fantastic synoptic pattern, first time I've seen from EPS this winter such a strong signal for a -NAO, given the protracted lack of cold to our east, I think we would be better off with a sustained northerly as we head through early March to have any chance of snow for lowland Britain away from Scotland. As the high Arctic looks likely now to be the only area with deep cold to tap into. 

I suggested (in my post yesterday on page 36 and my previous post on page 25, last Tuesday), based on Dr Judah Cohen’s  Arctic Oscillation forecast, I was expecting much greater amplification in the North Atlantic with strong HLB to our north-west, north and eventually north-east with low heights dropping into Europe.  I am delighted to see Nick F reporting that the 12z EPS is now predicting similar synoptics. The problem brought up by many posters, including Nick, is will there be any decent cold to tap into? Can we import sufficient cold to establish a cold pool in central Europe? Will the 850 uppers be low enough? Well, after scratching my head and doing a bit of lateral thinking, I spent some time this evening trying to find anything positive – and I have some good news but you’ll need to read on before I get there!

I think it is widely known that the part of the Arctic directly to our north from north of Iceland and Norway through the Barents Sea, Kara Sea and towards the North Pole, has seen some extremely warm weather. Surface temperatures have sometimes been above freezing between December and February. Here is a link to temperatures recorded in Svalbard.

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

The readings are taken at their official observatory, based at Svalbard Airport which is just 28m above sea level and a couple of miles from the capital, Longyearbyen. There is a graph for the last year to January 2016 and a separate chart for February 2016. You will see just how warm it has been. The 30 day average has been -5.1c which is 11.1c above their February mean of -16.2c. In fact the lowest temperature all month was -13.6c on February 9th (ie: continuously above the mean) and they managed + 1.7c on February 18th. The forecast for the next few days is not much better with maximum temperatures between -1c this Wednesday and gradually falling to -6c by early next Tuesday (March 8th). At that point I thought this is continuing to be exceptionally warm and I almost gave up.

With a little more fiddling around I came across a 2 week forecast and….bingo!!! For the first time this winter, temperatures are forecast to fall below average!  This can be seen in this link.

http://www.timeanddate.com/weather/norway/longyearbyen/ext

The average for the whole of March is around -15c and only marginally higher than in February, in fact average temperatures hardly rise until mid-April. You’ll see that maximums start off around -6c on Tuesday March 8th and steadily fall away to -17c by March 13th with the minimum around -24c/-25c***. In fact it looks like Svalbard will have a decent cold spell by “their” standards. ***Please note that the figures on this chart are updated hourly (I have just adjusted them at 0655 on Monday, 29th February). 

The timing would seem to be almost perfect, coinciding with our airstream veering into the north-north-east and probably sourcing air from precisely that area! . Although there are other factors to weigh in, surely having much colder surface air over our part of the Arctic will help with importing some much needed colder air. Usual caveats apply. I have no idea of the reliability of the weather forecast which is provided by “CustomWeather” but I believe it comes from the Norwegian Met Office? Perhaps Nick can comment on this. Several charts show around -20c to -28c uppers in that area towards the end of next week. If those verify and we tap into the surface cold surely things will be a lot more promising for us. This is the GEM control 850s chart for March 14th which also shows a broadly similar surface pattern.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=360&mode=1&carte=1

Right, I'll leave it up to you guys and girls to comment on this. I have a really busy week ahead but I may post a couple of brief updates on this topic later in the week if I can find the time.

IMPORTANT AMENDMENT: The 2 week forecast that I refer to above does not seem to be reliable - it's automatically updating every hour and the overnight predicted temperatures for the March 10th-14th period have been raised considerably this morning. There are also other stations in the area with differing and much less cold forecast temperatures. Please accept my apologies for misleading anyone. See next page for who corrected me and other links.

"CustomWeather" is a San Francisco based company providing worldwide forecasts. They appear to have quite a good verification record. They are NOT linked to the Norwegian Met Office. If I provide further updates on the Svalbard region temperature forecasts, I will try to obtain them from the Norwegian weather service.

I also see that the GEM chart that I posted above has been substantially downgraded on the next run. I have been guilty of being overly reliant on several sets of figures and charts and using them to support my point. I shall be much more guarded in future. Sorry folks. 

Edited February 29, 2016 by Guest
Major corrections and an apology

[knocker]

The GFS this morning has a depression running SE on Thursday bring some wet and windy weather with transient snow in some areas in particular on the higher ground. Thereafter with the low running into N. Germany clearer cooler weather over the UK with distinct possibility of some quite wintry showers in the east on the NE wind.

[bluearmy]

Ukmo again out of step with the others although they have drifted towards Ukmo solution somewhat early on, especially ECM.  We could be drifting towards a snowy occlusion on Friday without widespread expectation. 

 

[knocker]

The ecm is showing quite significant snowfalls north of a line Bristol to London through Thursday/Friday as the depression travels SE.

[Timmytour]

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm is showing quite significant snowfalls north of a line Bristol to London through Thursday/Friday as the depression travels SE.

Who are you? Where is Knocker and what have you done with him?   



i think this must be the third or fourth end of week period where the models have been showing snow for the end of a week.  This time I will expect the opportunity to have disappeared come tomorrow  (but still hope I will be pleasantly surprised!)

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Who are you? Where is Knocker and what have you done with him?   



i think this must be the third or fourth end of week period where the models have been showing snow for the end of a week.  This time I will expect the opportunity to have disappeared come tomorrow  (but still hope I will be pleasantly surprised!)

Well don't get too carried away the METO is just going for some hill snow.

[Higher Ground]

6 hours ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

With a little more fiddling around I came across a 2 week forecast and….bingo!!! For the first time this winter, temperatures are forecast to fall below average!

Thanks for the interesting stats about Svalbard temperatures over the past year, and it definitely seems relevant to me in terms of how deep any cold is that we tap into.

I just wanted to point out that I used to check the Svalbard forecasts/recent temps for similar reasons to those you have outlined. However, I found that actual temperatures would often turn out to be several degrees C warmer than those forecast. (I think I tried using at least a couple of different weather sites.) Think there was an issue there that I never quite got to the bottom of.... I suspected the microclimate of the airport affecting the observations but not the forecasts.... but that's only a guess.

Let's see how it turns out, and do update us in a couple of weeks time with the actual temps.

[Banbury]

Worth keeping an eye on

[KTtom]

I'm surprised how quiet it is here, unless I've suddenly lost the ability to read charts were heading, with solid agreement into the coldest spell of the winter from Thursday with temperatures (uppers) supportive of snow for at least 5 days. The airflow looks unstable and as the Mets 144 chart shows there would be some extremely low minima overnight in a slack northerly. Obviously no point speculating where at this time but surely the best chance of the winter so far for lowland snow in the south....

 

 

Edited February 29, 2016 by KTtom

[Paul_1978]

2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

I'm surprised how quiet it is here, unless I've suddenly lost the ability to read charts were heading, with solid agreement into the coldest spell of the winter from Thursday with temperatures (uppers) supportive of snow for at least 5 days. The airflow looks unstable and as the Mets 144 chart shows there would be some extremely low minima overnight in a slack northerly.

 

 

I think people are weary with seeing charts with great synoptics with little or nothing to show for them. Let's hope we can get one or two decent snowfalls before the spring weather kicks in

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY FEB 29TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  A ridge of High pressure across Southern Britain will decline away SE today followed by troughs of Low pressure in a strengthening West or SW wind through the day and overnight. Following a cold front East over the UK tomorrow a cold and showery Westerly flow will develop.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will lift from the West through the day with values exceeding 5000-6000ft tonight before falling again towards 2000ft later tomorrow with early snow over Northern hills and mountains turning to rain but returning to many hills again tomorrow in the form of showers.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Rather cold and breezy with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Temperatures mostly rather below average with frosts at night in places.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is predicted to blow SE across the Atlantic and France over the coming week with a deep trough across the UK by next weekend with this pattern only slowly reducing to more of a West to East pattern though still blowing quite a way further South than average through the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows mostly rather cold and unsettled conditions likely across the UK this week with winds from a West or NW direction driving wintry showers and some longer periods of rain or sleet with hill snow East and SE across all areas through the period. Then as we move through the second week changes are slow with the weather remaining rather cold and changeable for many with rain at times with further snowfall and strong winds affecting the North in particular at times.

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run's theme follows a similar course as the Operational through the first week with a lot of chilly West or NW winds and wintry showers with snow on fairly modest hills nationwide at times. The coldness if anything enhances next weekend as Low pressure just to the East swings winds Northerly. Then through the second week the run diverges a little from the Operational with a milder but still damp period under West or SW winds before pressure builds to the East and encourages trough disruption across the UK at the end of the run with rain at times along with chillier conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show strong support for High pressure to lie across the UK in 14 days time as the clusters suggest a 75%/25% split towards this scenario. The remaining 25% show Low pressure from the West bringing rain at times in a milder SW'ly flow more likely.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning is a very chilly one for March as Low pressure areas moving SE over or to the NE of the UK later this week culminate in a complex Low pressure area over and just to the East of the UK at the weekend with Northerly winds and wintry showers the order of the days with frosts at night in shelter 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show the complexities of the SE moving fronts and depressions towards the UK later in the week and how it engages with cold air from Northern latitude sources later in the week too with a mixture of rain, wind and wintry showers in quite cold conditions relative to March.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today shows a similar pattern to the rest of the output with a chilly week to come with rain and showers turning wintry across hills over all parts of the UK. Once to the East of the UK the Northerly down across the UK persists for several days next weekend before a ridge of High pressure ridging NE across the UK next week dries things up with sharp overnight frosts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows the rather cold and unsettled theme too with cold winds from the NW and then North next weekend ensuring rain and showers at times throughout the period turning to snow at times on hills nationwide at times especially later as further Low pressure disrupts SE across the UK at the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning shows cold and unsettled and windy conditions for all of the UK over the next week with rain and snow at times across the UK, the snow mostly but not exclusively over the hills. Then after a cold and wintry weekend with snow showers in places the pattern flattens next week with High pressure to the South and Low pressure to the North bringing milder Westerly winds across the UK with rain at times particularly to the North with longer drier spells across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows a gradual shift East of the trough previously shown across the UK suggesting a gradual trend towards High pressure becoming more influential from the West at that time with temperatures still rather chilly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The pattern between the models is well documented for this week as rather cold and unsettled conditions are projected by all models. Thereafter, there is more variability mostly surrounding how much High pressure from the West or SW interacts with the previously chilly and unsettled conditions across the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.1 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 87.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.7 pts to 64.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM and GFS tie at 50.3 pts each.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The models share a similar theme in the next week with all output suggesting a cold and rather windy period of weather to come across the UK throughout this week and next weekend as Low pressure areas move SE down over the UK later dragging rather cold uppers down across the UK from the NW and with much instability aloft moving across relatively warm seas a lot of showers and some more persistent spells of rain for all seem likely on most days. It also looks that winds could veer Northerly next weekend enhancing the cold further for a time with snow showers especially near coasts, lighter winds with frosts at night. Then as we move further out into the less guaranteed period of 7-14 days the focus shifts on how much High pressure lying across the Atlantic one week from now shifts towards the UK settling things down with frosty nights but dry, bright and fine days. The GFS Clusters this morning strongly support this theme whereas the ECM operational at Day 10 sinks any High pressure South of the UK supporting a milder Westerly airflow developing next week with rain at times especially for the North and West. The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart this morning continues to grow the theme of High pressure ridging NE through the UK at day 10 suggesting that when taken as a whole and given the GFS theme too most output supports fine and pleasant weather possible from the middle of next week but with frosts at night.          

Next Update Tuesday March 1st 2016 from 09:00

[Interitus]

7 hours ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

I suggested (in my post yesterday on page 36 and my previous post on page 25, last Tuesday), based on Dr Judah Cohen’s  Arctic Oscillation forecast, I was expecting much greater amplification in the North Atlantic with strong HLB to our north-west, north and eventually north-east with low heights dropping into Europe.  I am delighted to see Nick F reporting that the 12z EPS is now predicting similar synoptics. The problem brought up by many posters, including Nick, is will there be any decent cold to tap into? Can we import sufficient cold to establish a cold pool in central Europe? Will the 850 uppers be low enough? Well, after scratching my head and doing a bit of lateral thinking, I spent some time this evening trying to find anything positive – and I have some good news but you’ll need to read on before I get there!

I think it is widely known that the part of the Arctic directly to our north from north of Iceland and Norway through the Barents Sea, Kara Sea and towards the North Pole, has seen some extremely warm weather. Surface temperatures have sometimes been above freezing between December and February. Here is a link to temperatures recorded in Svalbard.

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

The readings are taken at their only official observatory, based at Svalbard Airport which is just 28m above sea level and a couple of miles from the capital, Longyearbyen. There is a graph for the last year to January 2016 and a separate chart for February 2016. You will see just how warm it has been. The 30 day average has been -5.1c which is 11.1c above their February mean of -16.2c. In fact the lowest temperature all month was -13.6c on February 9th (ie: continuously above the mean) and they managed + 1.7c on February 18th. The forecast for the next few days is not much better with maximum temperatures between -1c this Wednesday and gradually falling to -6c by early next Tuesday (March 8th). At that point I thought this is continuing to be exceptionally warm and I almost gave up.

With a little more fiddling around I came across a 2 week forecast and….bingo!!! For the first time this winter, temperatures are forecast to fall below average!  This can be seen in this link.

http://www.timeanddate.com/weather/norway/longyearbyen/ext

The average for the whole of March is around -15c and only marginally higher than in February, in fact average temperatures hardly rise until mid-April. You’ll see that maximums start off around -6c on Tuesday March 8th and steadily fall away to -17c by March 13th with the minimum around -24c/-25c***. In fact it looks like Svalbard will have a decent cold spell by “their” standards. ***Please note that the figures on this chart are updated daily (I have just adjusted them at 0655 on Monday, 29th February). 

The timing would seem to be almost perfect, coinciding with our airstream veering into the north-north-east and probably sourcing air from precisely that area! . Although there are other factors to weigh in, surely having much colder surface air over our part of the Arctic will help with importing some much needed colder air. Usual caveats apply. I have no idea of the reliability of the weather forecast which is provided by “CustomWeather” but I believe it comes from the Norwegian Met Office?

A quick word on this, Svalbard Airport certainly isn't the only official observatory, Ny Alesund is also a WMO CLIMAT reporting station (also Bjørnøya island to the south) and there are a number of other SYNOP stations in the archipelago at Sørkappøya, Hornsund, Akseløya, Sveagruva, Barentsburg, Isfjord Radio, Pyramiden, Platåberget, Verlegenhuken, Edgeoya, Karl XII-øya, Kvitøya, Kongsøya and Hopen, as can be seen on this Norwegian met office map - http://eklima.met.no/Help/Stations/toDay/all/en_Stations.html

(The Svalbard university also has a number of other weather stations - http://www.unis.no/resources/weather-stations-and-web-cameras/)

Anyway it's worth noting that the 'lack' of cold in the region is nothing new, a combination of a warming Arctic with AMO phase and subsequent ice retreat means that Svalbard is very much warmer than the 1961-1990 climate averages - February 2012 was similarly warm at 10.6°C above average, and February 2014 was an absolute bonkers 14.5°C above average!

The warming is most marked during the winter season but is present all year - Longyearbyen has not recorded a below average month since November 2010 and that only 0.7°C below normal.

Finally, those forecast temperatures are much colder than those from the Norwegian met office which can be seen on the yr.no website you linked for the past year's temperatures - http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/long.html, or also curiously on weatherspark - https://weatherspark.com/#!dashboard;ws=28884

[weirpig]

46 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Worth keeping an eye on

Yeah   although a few days away but it does at least show potential  some areas going by that chart could get 4 inches or more   although as we know gfs does tend to overblow precipitation;  As you say something to keep an eye on 

[knocker]

On the subject of CAA in the first place the upper air pattern has to be established to facilitate this and that is a long way from being on the table and then there is the tapping................................

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Interitus said:

A quick word on this, Svalbard Airport certainly isn't the only official observatory, Ny Alesund is also a WMO CLIMAT reporting station (also Bjørnøya island to the south) and there are a number of other SYNOP stations in the archipelago at Sørkappøya, Hornsund, Akseløya, Sveagruva, Barentsburg, Isfjord Radio, Pyramiden, Platåberget, Verlegenhuken, Edgeoya, Karl XII-øya, Kvitøya, Kongsøya and Hopen, as can be seen on this Norwegian met office map - http://eklima.met.no/Help/Stations/toDay/all/en_Stations.html

(The Svalbard university also has a number of other weather stations - http://www.unis.no/resources/weather-stations-and-web-cameras/)

Anyway it's worth noting that the 'lack' of cold in the region is nothing new, a combination of a warming Arctic with AMO phase and subsequent ice retreat means that Svalbard is very much warmer than the 1961-1990 climate averages - February 2012 was similarly warm at 10.6°C above average, and February 2014 was an absolute bonkers 14.5°C above average!

The warming is most marked during the winter season but is present all year - Longyearbyen has not recorded a below average month since November 2010 and that only 0.7°C below normal.

Finally, those forecast temperatures are much colder than those from the Norwegian met office which can be seen on the yr.no website you linked for the past year's temperatures - http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/long.html, or also curiously on weatherspark - https://weatherspark.com/#!dashboard;ws=28884

Very briefly, I can see that there is a second station on Svalbard (so I was wrong about that particular point) but the others are on various surrounding islands. I really think that your comments about the 2 week forecast are unfair. The sites that you refer to and the first one that I linked to do not go beyond March 9th or at least I do not see anything there. My second link is for the 2 week forecast with the already falling temperature trend predicted on the first set of charts falling much further between March 10th and March 14th and only going below average by March 13th. I would never wish to mislead anyone - so if you can show a "less cold" forecast chart for the second week, please do so. 

Please see my apology below.

Edited February 29, 2016 by Guest
Correction