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Paul

Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

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unbelievable charts tonight but wheres the deep cold all bottled up over the Canadian side of the arctic and Greenland I was talking about arctic or Siberian sourced air but even this is pretty high in terms of upper850s but by god these charts from gfs gem if it had been couple of weeks back we would of been experiencing what coldies have been waiting for 3 years.

but could the vortex drag much colder uppers over to the scandi side I suppose its possible into march.

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The one thing I have noticed is that t the widespread snow gets further away.

It will no doubt disappear altogether shortly. 

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Both UKMO and GFS show the Atlantic ridging later next week returning colder air to the UK.

GFS shows low pressure dropping south over the country at the end of next week with cold air involved as the jet digs way south towards the Med.

These would be great charts for mid-Winter cold,and snow would feature widely in the cold unstable air.As it is March then that word marginality very much applies wrt surface temperatures and dew points.

This run does show a north easterly from Scandinavia towards the end of the high resolution as the ridge topples which is probably the coldest scource of air around by then.

I think if we are to get any widespread March snow then this kind of pattern gives us a decent chance.

 

 

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Greenland high and scandi vortex segment and some transfer of them much cold uppers to the Iceland scandi side blown in on a nice prolonged northerly or northeasterly I wonder if the ecm can possibly show this tonight

phils post above beat me to it

Edited by emotional rollercoaster

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34 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

WE Can dream :cold:

prectypeuktopo.png

Just plain ol' rain in Camborne.

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Out of the outputs this evening so far, I would  take the GEM solution which holds the trough to our East until day 10 without seeing the low heights cut off. This maintains the northerly flow as well as allows troughs and secondary systems to move south/south east through the UK with the chance of tapping some proper Arctic air.

gemnh-0-90.png?12   gemnh-0-192.png?12   gemnh-0-240.png?12

 

There isn't really much point trying to cut the trough off at this present time given the lack of cold moving in with this system next week as perhaps maintaining a source of air from the Arctic as opposed to a more continental flow would be preferable. There is the second bonus that a north/north westerly would probably offer more sunshine as opposed to a flow east of north if we can't develop the conditions for snow showers to develop

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Again the GFS this evening shows a cold Arctic Northerly flow as we head into Spring, With some pretty unstable air pushing snow showers South under nationwide -7/-8 850's giving some severe overnight frosts in the North.

b.pngc.pngd.png

Edited by Polar Maritime

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the gem model caught my eye a lot and I consider the gem similar to the ecm as a over all model so I wouldn't be surprised to see pretty similar run from the ecm tonight although I could be wrong.

its also worth noting these are the best runs ive seen this winter and the background signals are actually rapidly becoming more favourable to in regards to the mjo its not been a dull winter model watching that's for sure.

theres certainly potential and agree the gem caught my eye that's for sure.

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.2e2b934cdfbcc3209e

 

jet stream what jet stream

gemnh-5-240.thumb.png.34a9ac6da5e0bbda45

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10 minutes ago, Biensie said:

Where is Karl? 

Going down the depol office to get his name changed... or he's has a heart attack!! 

Big turnaround in the models over the last few days... the next few will be interesting! Still hope for coldies

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17 minutes ago, Biensie said:

Where is Karl? 

He's posting in the moans / chat / banter / ramp thread

 

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ECM keeps temperatures below average next week but not really cold enough for snow away from high ground in the north more nuisance value than anything else

ECM0-96.GIF?26-0ECM0-144.GIF?26-0ECM0-192.GIF?26-0ECM0-240.GIF?26-0

ECM1-96.GIF?26-0ECM1-144.GIF?26-0ECM1-192.GIF?26-0ECM1-240.GIF?26-0

 

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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM keeps temperatures below average next week but not really cold enough for snow away from high ground in the north more nuisance value than anything else

ECM0-96.GIF?26-0ECM0-144.GIF?26-0ECM0-192.GIF?26-0ECM0-240.GIF?26-0

ECM1-96.GIF?26-0ECM1-144.GIF?26-0ECM1-192.GIF?26-0ECM1-240.GIF?26-0

 

Yes, ECM doesn't clear the trough to the South like GFS does, so it's harder to get any colder air to dig down.

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we are certainly entering a volatile period with great uncertainty in the models. of course the extremes are unlikely to verify, but a mixed bag of generally cool weather looks likely.

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+144 to +192, GFS is better for getting enough cold air into the mix for lowland snow to fall at some point (even if only briefly) just about anywhere - but for much of England and Wales we're talking a brief spell as cold air cuts in from the E/NE, this struggling to remain as snow during daylight hours.

ECM is not so good as it has the trough deeper and further north. To me this seems overblown and I'm more inclined to believe the weaker, further south outcome from GFS. Indeed if the outcome for this coming weekend is anything to go by, it could end up a good deal further south than even GFS shows.

 

+192 to +240, I'm not a fan of the way in which GFS powers a trough straight through Greenland. With the expected MJO forcing there ought to be enough meridionality to the jet across the U.S. and Atlantic to encourage the trough to stall across Canada. This is what ECM shows this evening - quite a departure from the morning run with its lowering of heights across the high Arctic in general. GEM is along similar lines.

Indeed I see a lot of potential for a notably dry first half of March (at least), but small disturbances could deliver localised rain/snow events, hopefully more the latter as any rain will be of a distinctly cold variety - bad enough in the depths of winter, let alone when you're being denied warm spring sunshine.

We may not have to worry about missing out on warmth in March though - particularly with a vortex split at play, as that was also seen in 1976*... :whistling:;) 

*if only it was that simple!

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Good evening Gang ,i,v not posted in quite awhile and my Towel is still In .

Things looking very good for cold and Snow fall chances in further outlook 

Ok its very nearly spring but the weather can deliver given good synoptics and charts currently showing the possibility although at odds with each other but all show cold cyclonic conditions .we will i feel need good precipitation rates a good source of cold air some good 850 temperatures and a fair share of luck depending on your particular location .Lets hope gang after this very long virtually snowless mushy windswept and certainly wet for many winter,  we can all get something falling from the sky this early Spring , Stellas all round cheers:yahoo:

 

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A very quick outlook from the models is for colder and drier,,,,,:cold:

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As good as some of the blocking charts that are showing, what is disheartening is the complete lack of proper cold air to the North to tap into.

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Tonight's 6-10 anomalies are all singing from the same hymn sheet with a not unexpected scenario. NOAA has corrected itself from last night's oddity and is on board. So with the now familiar upstream pattern we have ridging mid Atlantic with the trough over the UK or just to the east. Ergo a continuation of the NW flow, perhaps veering a tad further north so still periods of unsettled and at times wintry weather swinging down over the UK which could produce some brief transient snow events. Temps very variable because of the mobility within the upper air pattern but generally a little below average. Reflected well in the det. runs.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.ae7700egefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.5a160d351c610day.03.thumb.gif.f9db50c5bc826060e39d

In the 10-15 day period they all change the emphasis slightly with the Atlantic ridge moving east and tending towards a more SWS/ NEN orientation with the trough relegated south. Thus although the UK is still under the influence of a NW/N flow it is dictated more by the HP so this portends perhaps drier and more settled weather although temps still a little under average. Can't post the EPS but it's not a long way from the NOAA.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.9ed1daaf7f814day.03.thumb.gif.b45159dcdac0ee1e87db

 

Edited by knocker

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GFS 18z is showing transitory frontal snow for Monday before milder air pounces in.

image.thumb.png.ff59784809a0f14e1449d66fimage.thumb.png.4a288df8c0cba3449c708176

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