Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[feb1991blizzard]

By and large the 12z output is an absolute disaster.

[Long haul to mild]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

By and large the 12z output is an absolute disaster.

Have to agree with that. The Easterly this weekend gets weaker and more short lived with each run and it is pretty much gone by the end of Sunday. Next week looking increasingly flat and the GFS appears to be moving towards the ECM.

Just hoping that Singularity is right about the MJO possibly confusing the models.

[karlos1983]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

By and large the 12z output is an absolute disaster.

Well I look at it that it could be knife edge, between going milder & flatter (ECM,UKMO) or signs or heights to our NE becoming more influential and sending energy under (GFS, JMA). But I fear we need to see that trend grow in the next 2 or 3 runs or it's a bust.

Edited February 24, 2016 by karlos1983

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Long haul to mild said:

Have to agree with that. The Easterly this weekend gets weaker and more short lived with each run and it is pretty much gone by the end of Sunday. Next week looking increasingly flat and the GFS appears to be moving towards the ECM.

Just hoping that Singularity is right about the MJO possibly confusing the models.

I was always looking beyond that Easterly TBH, but now some promising FI ensemble suites are downgrading (GEFS less so and still some blocking showing), The ECM strat charts depict Greeny ridge down to about 50mb at 240, they are yesterdays run though, If this is going to have any impact, its going to have to start showing soon, the GFS is the same and has gone on to throw some stonking tropospheric ridges over Greenland lately. That's the only hope I can give.

[mulzy]

20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

By and large the 12z output is an absolute disaster.

Yep - flat and zonal is the theme (as you were!)

At least we have a few frosts to salvage something from the wreckage of this winter.

Not to self:  Only trust any output up to day 4 (96 hours) and even then only if there is cross-model support - treat everything else as indicative only.

 

[helen47]

On Sunday, February 21, 2016 at 0:20 PM, feb1991blizzard said:

Is The GEFS and EC EPS rise in temperature towards the end of the end of the run being discarded?, it looks to me like a return to zonality of sorts on both those models although I obviously have only seen the later in London graph form.   Oooopsss delete this post please

Edited February 24, 2016 by helen47
mistake

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, helen47 said:

 

Actually its quite apt!!!!  unfortunately what I said then might come true!

[pdiddy]

9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yep - flat and zonal is the theme (as you were!)

At least we have a few frosts to salvage something from the wreckage of this winter.

Not to self:  Only trust any output up to day 4 (96 hours) and even then only if there is cross-model support - treat everything else as indicative only.

 

Not sure I understand that...  If you're saying don't trust anything beyond 4 days, the next 4 days aren't zonal are they? 

[Froze were the Days]

Forgetting the ridiculous December and early January mildness half the problem from mid-Jan and this month with regards to getting decent cold over these shores has been the Azores high cell - It has hardly been displaced at all (occasionally more amplified) other than a brief stronger lobe to the north of the British Isles in that rather disappointing mid january spell. It refuses like the November/December Euro slug to move.

Edited February 24, 2016 by Froze were the Days

[Long haul to mild]

18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I was always looking beyond that Easterly TBH, but now some promising FI ensemble suites are downgrading (GEFS less so and still some blocking showing), The ECM strat charts depict Greeny ridge down to about 50mb at 240, they are yesterdays run though, If this is going to have any impact, its going to have to start showing soon, the GFS is the same and has gone on to throw some stonking tropospheric ridges over Greenland lately. That's the only hope I can give.

Suppose I was always interested in the Easterly due to my location and the fact that they are incredibly rare nowadays, so it's very disappointing to see it apparently fizzle out so tamely. 

Was therefore looking to next week for the diving trough and subsequent NE'ly that has been showing on most models (particularly GFS) but there seems to be a general movement away from that too at the moment.

 

[Banbury]

1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

Yes decent agreement to T120hrs showing something of a warm up moving in early next week from the Azores ridging,this showing on the 00z ens.

likely to bring some cloud and some dampness with it

.A shame really as we lose this lovely crisp and clear Arctic air although the above graph shows that below average temps return later as we see further colder incursions  from the north west.

Which is a kin to the Met update

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Long haul to mild said:

Suppose I was always interested in the Easterly due to my location and the fact that they are incredibly rare nowadays, so it's very disappointing to see it apparently fizzle out so tamely. 

Was therefore looking to next week for the diving trough and subsequent NE'ly that has been showing on most models (particularly GFS) but there seems to be a general movement away from that too at the moment.

 

My favourite synoptic is an Easterly but nowhere near enough instability was ever modelled so I was highly dubious it  was going to be anything other than dry, you need one of those big long sausage or rectangle shaped highs over Scandinavia with a big long fetch of upper air all the way from Eastern Russia / Siberia, that sinker was always going to be brief and too hot to bring anything.

[Blake]

Just to indicate that dry charts don't mean dry...

Precipitation can just crop up. Quite slow moving so perhaps a dusting almost anywhere as temps fall ahead of the front in clear skies.

[Long haul to mild]

28 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

My favourite synoptic is an Easterly but nowhere near enough instability was ever modelled so I was highly dubious it  was going to be anything other than dry, you need one of those big long sausage or rectangle shaped highs over Scandinavia with a big long fetch of upper air all the way from Eastern Russia / Siberia, that sinker was always going to be brief and too hot to bring anything.

Yes, maybe something more like this (CAUTION : historic eye watering chart alert):

 

 

Those were the days, I can only imagine how exciting the model thread would have been leading up to that; if only the internet was around then!!

Nowadays everything seems to be marginality and downgrades and blocking being blown away..........

[Spah1]

GFS and Hi Res models picked up these showers. 

 

Which turned into this 

Which turned into this

Lending support to what others have been saying re getting the cold in first then see what happens. 

Quote

 

[knocker]

The latest analog composite. Close but no cigar!!

[phil nw.]

The 12z ens charts for day 7  do indicate another north westerly flow beyond the Azores ridging

so somewhat colder again but it must be said probably less so than currently.A rather flatter jet with less Atlantic ridging so winds more towards west or north west rather than our present Arctic northerly.Still signs of some trough development heading south east into Europe with the Azores high around it's familiar location.

[Cloud 10]

Once again the ECM op. run is not a good match for the ens. mean at day 10,especially for the UK,with LP firmly in control on the ens.

 

NAEFS is very similar.

 

ecm op....ecm ens...

 

NAEFS..

[bluearmy]

back online so if i have something to add then i can add it!  nothing to get me over excited re snow prospects at the moment. when its cold enough then there is no precip and vica versa.

the upper trough in week 2 is edging west and over us in the eps which will doubtless be cool and damp! thereafter, the ens in general are sniffing a decent s greeny height rise. hopefully not a transient affair. at two weeks distance, an impressive mean signal. will be approaching mid march by that juncture so the cards really do have to be dealt carefully to bring lowland snowfall to the southern half uk.  tbh, given the chances of that, i would prefer to see the advent of spring. cold rain just doesn't 'float my boat'.  no doubt those in the north and at elevation will be more optimistic!

[Hotspur62]

Just saw weather for week ahead with Alex Deakin and after weekend "bitter" North Easterly with temps of 9 degrees in London lol things will remain coolish with winds turning more North Westerly and there could be some rain about, especially in NW parts of UK. This pretty ties in with charts that JH shows us which I feel give a good indicator.

 I really hoped at start of February we were going to see some nationwide cold by end of this month as the profile of NH looked quite good but that was maybe wishful thinking on my part. After todays pleasant sunshine I think I am hoping for spring now as the search of snow for last 3 months has really tried my patience and the towel is very close to being thrown in.   

[snowbob]

Towel well and truly gone for us down south 

the best charts of this winter on Sunday have well and truly downgraded to real life

theres always next year .

must admit it's nice traveling home without the streetlights on.

we have been unlucky this year for three months we have been patient searching every models fi  for our cold spells and every time it downgraded we dusted ourselves off and looked beyond.

but not to be this year.

so I did what every coldie does after a bad winter.

i stuck two fingers up and booked my holiday in the sun,

il get you back winter

roll on October 

Edited February 24, 2016 by snowbob

[Man With Beard]

It's been a confusing day for mid-term prospects. The ECM op remarkably consistent in flattening the pattern somewhat. But you cannot rule out another Arctic blast with anomaly charts like this:

To me this shouts out Northerly, Northerly, Northerly - and if I'm wrong, North-easterly!

[Banbury]

Blocked is still an option as we go into March

[Gowon]

The lows tracking south on the gfs later on.. Hopefully it will be cold and snowy instead of cold and damp 

[fergieweather]

24 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

It's been a confusing day for mid-term prospects. The ECM op remarkably consistent in flattening the pattern somewhat. But you cannot rule out another Arctic blast with anomaly charts like this:

To me this shouts out Northerly, Northerly, Northerly - and if I'm wrong, North-easterly!

Indeed. As do EC clusters out to 10th March. The expected pattern into early March heralds prospect of repeated bouts of Am incursions, much akin to the current one, with risk of deeper cyclonicity passing to S/SE of UK at times.