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Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
8 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Yes, backed up their 8-14 day anomaly chart from yesterday:

814day.03.gif

 

We'll see though as the UKMO looked pretty underwhelming at T144 too.

It wouldn't develop like the ECM after that point though because its different upstream. The key area is the west USA as that determines what happens to the troughing in the east USA and consequently where the Azores high goes. We'll see this evening whether the ECM has picked up a new trend.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

A total MJO collapse starting in just 4 days time is ECM's idea at the moment so it's no surprise to see way more momentum being added upstream when compared to GFS in particular. 

UKME is less bullish than ECM which mitigates the effect. The move toward phase 6 again is a bit odd though.

I wonder if ECM is overreacting to interference from the Indian Ocean... or perhaps the cooling of the far-eastern Pacific in some way. Or a bit of both!

Either that or the cold first half of March anticipated to some extent or other by a great many experts in the field is dead in the water - what a thought that is! I wouldn't mind higher temperatures - but the trouble is, they'd probably tend to come with a lot of cloud and rainy days due to the fact that such strong upstream westerlies are needed to get out of the cold pattern in the first place.

GEFS and the GFS 06z are well in line with what I have been thinking we'll have to put up with (or for snow lovers, if we get [very in the south] lucky, enjoy).

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Although you can't ignore the ECM this morning, the overall picture still looks to me like a good period of cool/cold weather into March, with arctic air generally in the mix to varying degrees. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland

Even if the ECM is wrong Paul most of the snow lovers( me included) have long since run out of patience. time is of an essence now and while these quiet cold/ cool sunny days are certainly to be enjoyed after the last two virtually snowless years a third one would be hard to take,c'est la Guerre I suppose.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Rollo
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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

The GFS looks to have better trough disruption already at 114 with higher heights to our east.

gfsnh-6-114.png?12

Not this time at 144 but if that low slides further south west we could have a country wide snow event

gfsnh-6-144.png?12

Edited by Vivian
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
7 minutes ago, Vivian said:

The GFS looks to have better trough disruption already at 114 with higher heights to our east.

gfsnh-6-114.png?12

Yeah noticed that. I wouldn't bet against that sliding eventually. Certainly something to watch out for in future runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Just now, karlos1983 said:

Yeah noticed that. I wouldn't bet against that sliding eventually. Certainly something to watch out for in future runs.

Yeah.. hopefully it slides further west.

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
18 minutes ago, Vivian said:

The GFS looks to have better trough disruption already at 114 with higher heights to our east.

gfsnh-6-114.png?12

Not this time at 144 but if that low slides further south west we could have a country wide snow event

gfsnh-6-144.png?12

UKMO has a very different take on it - looks much flatter....

UN144-21.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Just now, mulzy said:

UKMO has a very different take on it - looks much flatter....

UN144-21.GIF

Crap!!:nonono::rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

interesting chart, looks familiar?... not a million miles away from what we are expecting, this chart from today in 1955 produced a real dumping so im told..

 

big freeze.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

interesting chart, looks familiar?... not a million miles away from what we are expecting, this chart from today in 1955 produced a real dumping so im told..

 

big freeze.gif

not far off- (this weekends chart)

gfs-0-78.thumb.png.d9c3b0da6f6dc42de8b89

the uppers weren't particularly cold back then either- 

archives-1955-2-24-0-2.thumb.png.ea1a813

we just never know....❄

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Undercutter but no cold air, we need the trough to drop into Europe first with a greeny high and then the greeny high to topple to scandi - typical.

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Posted
  • Location: Hastings (Seafront)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Hastings (Seafront)

Well... didn't see this coming. Far out of course... no significant cold, though.

6z v 12zScreenshot_2016-02-24-16-52-26.thumb.png

Screenshot_2016-02-24-16-52-21.png

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

mind you, in posting that, im not at all suggesting a repeat performance. it just highlights though that similar looking charts do not always lead to similar outcomes.

i have no idea why we got a dumping then, and are unlikely to now, clearly there are other factors at play, maybe the low back then had more active fronts... and will get a few miles further north - i dont know.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

Still showing it lol :yahoo:

prectypeuktopo.png

not on the 12z?

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, Vivian said:

Yeah.. hopefully it slides further west.

Unlikely if you look at the predicted upper air charts for the same time. It is the upper air which has the most effect not the surface chart - sorry

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Unlikely if you look at the predicted upper air charts for the same time. It is the upper air which has the most effect not the surface chart - sorry

Unlikely, but you never know?.. or is that a definite no?:D

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

With the chaotic state of the models as the ever-changing MJO and strat. signals feed in, it seems we can't depend on anything in particular with respect to next week onward. Anyone else noticed how Monday's cold easterly has sneaked away as the LP out west arrives a bit sooner?

I think the period beyond that is highly open to question, as trough disruption to the NW is likely, with further sliding lows, but the models often have a lot of trouble picking up exactly when and where such will take place.

GFS 12z highlights the risk that a sliding trough could end up in a place that draws mild air our way instead of cold. We even see a cold pool to our east warm-out in-situ ahead of that, which is a reminder of the time of year and lack of deep cold pooling to resist the solar insolation.

The MJO is in theory hitting peak amplitude in phase 7 today and this is where it's common to see some more notable model errors as they try to figure out how well the wave/system will hold together as it progresses further east. 

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

Best outcome would of course be GEFS for the next few days. This is probably where the added amplification next week - with better trough disruption and room for a Scandi and/or Icelandic/Greenland high - is coming from.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Yeah noticed that. I wouldn't bet against that sliding eventually. Certainly something to watch out for in future runs.

I would agree with you Karlos!

Time will tell as ever.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
11 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Interesting to see what the 12z ECM has in store in the latter part of the run...

By the looks of it, probably insert another coin and try again :rofl:

ECM1-168.GIF?24-0

GFS and GEM for the same time

gfs-0-168.png?12   gem-0-168.png?12

Both American models show low pressure moving into the trough over Europe, the ECM drives the Azores high eastwards with a milder westerly flow establishing. Similar to this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

By the looks of it, probably insert another coin and try again :rofl:

ECM1-168.GIF?24-0

GFS and GEM for the same time

gfs-0-168.png?12   gem-0-168.png?12

Both American models show low pressure moving into the trough over Europe, the ECM drives the Azores high eastwards with a milder westerly flow establishing. Similar to this morning.

Yes decent agreement to T120hrs showing something of a warm up moving in early next week from the Azores ridging,this showing on the 00z ens.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

likely to bring some cloud and some dampness with it

.A shame really as we lose this lovely crisp and clear Arctic air although the above graph shows that below average temps return later as we see further colder incursions  from the north west.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

The JMA has the lows sliding SE 

J192-21.GIF?24-12

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