Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yeah, I would expect maxima of 4-5C for most parts of central and southern Britain, but also some hard frosts- typically around -3 to -6C without snow cover and approaching -10C in any lowland areas that do manage a snow cover.

The sluggish nature of the N/NE flow and lack of cold pooling in the anomalously warm Arctic significantly reduce the potential snow for the coming week.  I expect any frontal systems to bring mainly rain and sleet at low levels, with mostly cold, dry and sunny weather otherwise.  But the Svalbard/Franz Josef Land area is generally projected to cool down to near-normal temperatures in about a week's time, so any northerlies or north-easterlies into early March, if the cold spell sustains for that long, should be more potent.

Edited February 21, 2016 by Thundery wintry showers

[bradymk]

Anyone still have access to the parallel ECM?  

[IPredictASnowStorm]

must atleast get some snow showers coming from the sea 

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

must atleast get some snow showers coming from the sea 

Cheshire gap action there

i think we all know in a setup as being modelled, disturbances will absolutely appear. So we look to be getting the cold in, and changes will be plentiful, perhaps even down into the southwest as well as the odd slider pushes closer to the uk.

good times ahead if cold is your thing. 

Edited February 21, 2016 by karlos1983

[Lukesluckybunch]

So going by this evening's output which category would most of you put this cold spell in I wonder,if the ecm upgrades further we could be calling it a severe cold outbreak!but as it stands where would you put it I wonder.....chilly/cold/rather cold/very cold/or bitter.?

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

So going by this evening's output which category would most of you put this cold spell in I wonder,if the ecm upgrades further we could be calling it a severe cold outbreak!but as it stands where would you put it I wonder.....chilly/cold/rather cold/very cold/or bitter.?

Imo I'd say a mixture of the below

rather cold/very cold/or bitter.

[Tim Bland]

Get the cold in first and snow opportunities will follow, often at very short notice. Take nxt sat for example, a raft of options there...

 

 

[cheshire snow]

57 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Cheshireliableap action there

i think we all k now in a setup as being modelled, disturbances will absolutely appear. So we look to be getting the cold in, and changes will be plentiful, perhaps even down into the southwest as well as the odd slider pushes closer to the uk.

good times ahead if cold is your thing. 

 Post of tne day there Sir☺

 On a more Model related post and not a IMBY post

 As others have said mostly dry in the reliable time frame

 C.S

[Catacol]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

So going by this evening's output which category would most of you put this cold spell in I wonder,if the ecm upgrades further we could be calling it a severe cold outbreak!but as it stands where would you put it I wonder.....chilly/cold/rather cold/very cold/or bitter.?

For the Midlands north this will be cold and produce snow. For the south the form horse would be chilly and with cold rain. In 32 years of living in the south of England (since leaving Scotland) I am yet to see a single proper snowfall in March. March 2013 was a miss for my locality - and looking at the uppers as modelled at the moment I'm a long way from confident of conditions sustained enough to support snow.

But I very much hope to be proved wrong - and to have my 32 year duck broken.

Edited February 21, 2016 by Catacol

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Imo I'd say a mixture of the below

rather cold/very cold/or bitter.

Isn't this (colder from mid-late February onwards) pretty-much what most reputable forecasters have been suggesting all along? 

[Captain Shortwave]

The interaction between the low dropping south/south east and the receding Scandi trough will probably be pivotal in how conditions turn out by the end of the week. The UKMO looks excellent with the trough extending into the low moving into Iberia allowing a stiff and very cold north easterly to develop through the UK with showers becoming widespread across the east.

The other models don't show this phasing of the two system and allows a weak ridge to form between the two areas of low pressure.

ECM/GFS

     

The positioning of the low over Iberia would determine how much the cold air gets modified by warmer 850s moving up from the Mediterranean.

So overall a decent set of charts with the UKMO easily the best. That said I suspect that we could be a little more patient with this one as the pattern of dropping low pressure towards Iberia will continue to be the dominant theme for the coming couple of weeks.

Edited February 21, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Isn't this (colder from mid-late February onwards) pretty-much what most reputable forecasters have been suggesting all along? 

Yes, he asked for an opinion so I gave mine. Ask IDO, he might have a different one?

[Man With Beard]

16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Get the cold in first and snow opportunities will follow, often at very short notice. Take nxt sat for example, a raft of options there...

 

 

This is a really important point, Tim, and I'm surprised at some people tonight taking the T120-T240 precipitation charts too seriously - we always say that when snow IS shown, so surely we should be consistent and say the same when it ISN'T shown.

If one were to simply study the pressure and 850 charts tonight, you could conclude that there may not be a major snowfall, but you'd be lucky to avoid any snow showers at all for as many as 8 straight days - particularly central/northern areas. Look at it face value. No strong high pressure nearby. A deep low passing nearby to the SW, but we are well within the parameters of the depression. A strong easterly with low 850s off the North Sea. Then another depression trying to drop down from Iceland to Europe via us. You'd bet your house on that producing at least something.

Edited February 21, 2016 by Man With Beard

[Bolton67]

Let's not complain at  what the charts are showing tonight. After the last few months I think all us coldies can have a smile on our faces. Must be ok due to the fact IDO has vanished. 

 

Not  bothered if the ECM or GFS show a cold but dry outlook, it will gives us in the North West  some drying out time.

Edited February 21, 2016 by Bolton67

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes, he asked for an opinion so I gave mine. Ask IDO, he might have a different one?

Why would IDO, or anyone else, say any different: both the MetO and NW have consistently forecast colder weather after mid-late February, lasting through March. Of course, this may never happen but, so far, things seem to be almost on schedule??

Edited February 21, 2016 by Ed Stone

[bryan629]

12 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

So going by this evening's output which category would most of you put this cold spell in I wonder,if the ecm upgrades further we could be calling it a severe cold outbreak!but as it stands where would you put it I wonder.....chilly/cold/rather cold/very cold/or bitter.?

it very much an evolving pattern Luke..synoptically it looks to be getting really cold for all of the UK, best guess is its somewhere between the coldest part of the fridge and the warmest part of the freezer... both are great if you a coldie .. follow ukmo and ecm .. as many have said, get the cold in first and see what happens.. its going to be a brill week of model watching , thats for sure 

[phil nw.]

Let's avoid digs at individual members please people.We all have different views and they should be respected.By all means challenge them but in the right way via model data.

Cheers.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening all! So the cold getting in place this week and with model output  verifying that this will last for some time, so let the Late Winter Rollercoaster begin...

[Ali1977]

The North Sea can't be that cold after this winter , wouldn't that help generate some showers in a cold Easterly? Down the Thames for instance!! I think next weekends strong Easterly flow down South may well surprise some...

As some have said, let's get the cold in first.

Edited February 21, 2016 by Ali1977

[karlos1983]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Why would IDO, or anyone else say any different: both the MetO and NW have consistently forecast colder weather after mid-late February, lasting through March. Of course, this may never happen but, so far, things seem to be almost on schedule??

All I did was give Luke an answer to his question of my opinion Ed. But clearly you felt that should be brought to question. 

ofcourse I take what the Met office, net weather forecasters such as Nick, as well as the far more knowledgable folk in here than me, Steve M, Nick S and quite frankly anyone else who has a reasoned opinion on what the "models" are showing. As with 99.9% of this forums members I'm not a meteorologist, so if I said something wrong, why not just remove my post and message me directly rather than having a dig 

Edited February 21, 2016 by karlos1983

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

All I did was give Luke an answer to his question of my opinion Ed. But clearly you felt that should be brought to question. 

ofcourse I take what the Met office, net weather forecasters such as Nick, as well as the far more knowledgable folk in here than me, Steve M, Nick S and quite frankly anyone else who has a reasoned opinion on what the "models" are showing. As with 99.9% of this forums members I'm not a meteorologist, so if I said something wrong, why not just remove my post and message me directly rather than try and humiliate me. 

I've no motive to 'humiliate' you, karlos...I was merely asking a question, is all...Peace, my friend?

[Catacol]

14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Why would IDO, or anyone else, say any different: both the MetO and NW have consistently forecast colder weather after mid-late February, lasting through March. Of course, this may never happen but, so far, things seem to be almost on schedule??

Not sure what you're getting at here. Yes - cold late in Feb was what the Met called.... but if all we ever did was agree with the supercomputers then we might as well close down sites like this and forget trying to promote the art of weather forecasting. As a Forum Team member I assume you wouldnt want that?

And besides - even the most powerful of organisations get things wrong... so the fact that the Met have seemingly called this winter correctly is great news for them and for their ability to market their products - but it doesnt make them foolproof as they would readily admit. So "reputable" they may well be, and we are all delighted to have such an excellent Met Office.... but that is no reason to stop trying to improve the Art, and grow our understanding.

So.... the reason that some may say something different would be because they might disagree with the supercomputer and be prepared to put themselves up against Glosea code. And that keeps this forum ticking.

[ANYWEATHER]

Can We Please Keep The Model Output On The Model Output Please...

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Not sure what you're getting at here. Yes - cold late in Feb was what the Met called.... but if all we ever did was agree with the supercomputers then we might as well close down sites like this and forget trying to promote the art of weather forecasting. As a Forum Team member I assume you wouldnt want that?

And besides - even the most powerful of organisations get things wrong... so the fact that the Met have seemingly called this winter correctly is great news for them and for their ability to market their products - but it doesnt make them foolproof as they would readily admit. So "reputable" they may well be, and we are all delighted to have such an excellent Met Office.... but that is no reason to stop trying to improve the Art, and grow our understanding.

So.... the reason that some may say something different would be because they might disagree with the supercomputer and be prepared to put themselves up against Glosea code. And that keeps this forum ticking.

About what are we arguing, Catacol? I agree with everything you say...

[Catacol]

2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Can We Please Keep The Model Output On The Model Output Please...

Hi - but I have to confess to being one of the regular members on here who find constant reminding of this a bit frustrating. Of course this is model output discussion - but the current direction of talk is all related back to model interpretation - so why cant we let it run? If all we ever had was posts stating what the models show then this would become a really dull thread.

Edited February 21, 2016 by Catacol