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Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

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The GEFs and ecm 6-10 anomalies are in pretty good agreement this morning albeit with slight differences on the orientation of the trough. So still looking at slack low pressure in the west > south area dominating proceedings and the UK left to the vicissitudes of smaller scale developments. Likely outbreaks of rain, perhaps thundery, but also pleasant sunny interludes. Temps generally a fair bit above average. There would appear to be no support at the moment for any incursion of the Azores high as hinted at with this morning's ecm ops.

In the later period still looking at a relaxing of the amplification with the trough weakening to the west and the upper flow veering SW and temps returning to average by the end of the period.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.png

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I've been looking through the analogues and historical charts for May; a strong resemblance to 1947 (CET 13.5C) in how the modelling is panning out for the first fortnight. I wonder if we will see a similar ending - if so, a very warm month could be on the cards.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=19&month=5&hour=0&year=1947&map=3&region=&mode=2&type=ncep

Edited by Nouska
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33 minutes ago, Nouska said:

I've been looking through the analogues and historical charts for May; a strong resemblance to 1947 (CET 13.5C) in how the modelling is panning out for the first fortnight. I wonder if we will see a similar ending - if so, a very warm month could be on the cards.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=19&month=5&hour=0&year=1947&map=3&region=&mode=2&type=ncep

Perhaps hope for summer too as the summer of 1947 was a very good one with good summery spells in each month, interestingly whilst the cold spell of 1947 was the most prolonged spell of easterly winds seen in this part of the world, the second longest period of easterlies also occurred in this year but in August which resulted in a very warm month.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1948.tb00856.x/abstract

 

Anyways getting back on topic, perhaps the models are starting to search for a way out of the upcoming pattern of cyclonic south to south east winds with both the ECM op and GFS parallel bringing westerly winds back into the UK by day 9/10.

gfs-0-240.png?0   ECM1-240.GIF?02-12

The ensembles seem to want to hold more of an easterly element though with unsettled conditions prevailing either way. Both operationals look rather progressive in both their solutions.

Anyway a lot of increasingly warm weather to get through, it looks pretty good for the second half of this week before conditions become more showery over the weekend.

 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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NMM showing a good risk of thunderstorms through Friday, Saturday and Sunday here, especially Sunday as instability builds both across the continent and over the UK. One thing to note is that the surface winds here are NE on Sunday which would mean strong thunderstorms moving across coastal areas that day if no sea breeze develops.

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Temperatures are looking good on the Gfs 6z op, especially from Friday and the weekend and during next week, widely into the low 20's celsius and locally higher in favoured spots and there should be good spells of sunshine mixed with heavy showers and thunderstorms, so some fine weather and some deluges. In the meantime, this week is an improving picture with high pressure building in for a time across most of the uk and temperatures becoming pleasantly warm into the 60's F and then into the 70's F as we import warmer and more humid air from France. There will be some who complain that we are just swapping cold and wet for warm and wet but I think there will be some very nice weather around, certainly warm enough for a BBQ by the weekend, an early taste of what will hopefully be a very good summer...fingers crossed.:)

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I imagine that for some, the prospects of warm but showery weather is more inviting than it would usually be in May due to the recent lack of warm conditions.

For others, an interest in convective weather makes it about as good as could be hoped for at this stage in the year in terms of having reasonable ingredients and - more notably - persistence (as opposed to a hot air incursion that only lasts a day or so and is follows by cool temps). 

There will of course be those who'd prefer a week of sunny hot weather and then a big thundery breakdown followed by a fine weather reload, but that can be carried out more effectively in June or July ;)

 

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Temperatures are looking good on the Gfs 6z op, especially from Friday and the weekend and during next week, widely into the low 20's celsius and locally higher in favoured spots and there should be good spells of sunshine mixed with heavy showers and thunderstorms, so some fine weather and some deluges. In the meantime, this week is an improving picture with high pressure building in for a time across most of the uk and temperatures becoming pleasantly warm into the 60's F and then into the 70's F as we import warmer and more humid air from France. There will be some who complain that we are just swapping cold and wet for warm and wet but I think there will be some very nice weather around, certainly warm enough for a BBQ by the weekend, an early taste of what will hopefully be a very good summer...fingers crossed.:)

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wonder if that bit about swapping cold and wet and warm and wet was aimed in my direction no matter , looking at the temps charts there's nothing spectacular there maybe 1 or 2 degrees more for some than what we had a fortnight ago hardly going to set the planet alight is it of course will be pleasant enough if you don't get any showers and have sunshine , know a lot will see it as a glass half full scenario I'll prefer to wait and see and will sse it as half empty

Won't' be on forum much for next few days so those who like only rosey forecasts can breath a sigh of relief and I hope your not cursing a late change in the weather by the weekend

keep well everybody whether rain or shine or hot or cold or somewhere inbetween

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3 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

 

wonder if that bit about swapping cold and wet and warm and wet was aimed in my direction no matter 

No it was just a General comment:)

Anyway, I'm looking forward to the much warmer weather, it's about time we had some warmth and I'm sure the majority will agree with me on that.:D

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1 or 2 degrees more than 2 weeks ago.... I already reached 19 today when the previous best was 17 and 24 hours ago today wasn't even meant to be warm. :rofl:

Edited by March
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1 minute ago, March said:

1 or 2 degrees more than 2 weeks ago.... I already reached 19 today when the previous best was 17 and 24 hours ago today wasn't even meant to be warm. :rofl:

Low 20's celsius by the weekend, lovely jubbly:yahoo:

Plenty of support across the models for temps to reach the 70's F..enjoy it guys:D

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h500slp.png Rukm1441.gif

GFS still walling off the Atlantic by Sunday - UKMO not interested.

Unusually, it's the latter that may lead to a warmer outcome for the UK, as I discussed this morning. On the other hand, as ECM showed on the 00z and GFS on the 06z, it brings forward the likely timing of a return to westerlies with near average temperatures.

 

The 12z GFS has produced a curious sequence of events for England and Wales; It's windy but warm on Mon with easterlies gusting to near 40 mph yet temps widely into the low 20's. Then we see conditions slackening but with a tiny wedge of drier, less warm air arriving from the east on Tue - suppressing the showers but not eradicating them entirely - and growing in situ across the UK that night to leave us with high-teens maximums on Wed but feeling properly warm given very light winds.

h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png

All plausible provided the Atlantic is walled off. UKMO is headed along an ECM 00z/GFS 06z type route.

Into lower-res and that walling off of the Atlantic is about to have dire consequences it would seem;

h850t850eu.png

I'd rather take my chances with the westerlies trying to get in, given how well they were sent packing well south of the UK on the GFS 06z! That was a striking run for it's persistent warmth until the 16th day.

- actually, the 12z just uploaded a bit further and pressure from the trough moving into the Atlantic has toppled the mid-Atlantic ridge across the UK, so it's not so bad after all. Not great though with a slight frost risk. So I still vote for the 06z :D

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Not much change with the ecm for Saturday with the low south of Ireland. Probably outbreaks of rain in the south west and could well be some thundery activity.

ecm_t850_uv_eur_6.png

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180_mslp850.png?cb=193 222_mslp850.png?cb=193

GEM making the most of the setup. 25*C in the southeast each day Mon-Wed.

This manifests following a weekend solution that does feature the sliding low into the western periphery of the NW Europe trough, but as a shallow feature. Indeed the resultant merged system is a lot, lot shallower than what GFS produces. A weaker thermal gradient on the NW side is the main reason, due to that mid-Atlantic ridge walling off the Atlantic - but what the model gets up to still seems a bit over-the-top.

 

168_mslp850.png?cb=193

Watching ECM roll out now. It has that slider to the west so we see the shallower Euro trough with potential backing west, but it's not to the extent GEM has. 

Light winds as opposed to GFS' blustery affair, temps probably 20-22*C, maybe as high as 24*C where the sun holds on the most.

 

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192_mslp850.png?cb=193 216_mslp850.png?cb=193 240_mslp850.png?cb=193

Some considerable thunder potential followed by a relaxation into warm nothingness. Not bad I suppose!

It's been a reasonable day of model watching to make up for the uninspiring (as usual) BH weather. I have briefly relived what it used to be like before the world of work stole me away!

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Bring on the warmth..seriously what's not to like about these charts indicating temperatures reaching the low to mid 70's F after the dismally cool / cold spring so far?  

We have a more settled spell on the way for most of this week as pressure rises and temperatures rise to pleasantly warm levels but then although it is set to become more unsettled with heavy showers and a risk of thunder, temps and humidity are set to rise and according to these Ecm 12z op charts, it will be feeling summery for the first time this spring, eventually across the whole of the uk!:) 

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All the 6-10 anomalies tonight have the upper low around Iberia with upper cell northern Scandinavia. Ergo slack low pressure conditions will persist around the UK for the period with more than likely unsettled conditions prevailing with thundery outbreaks but interspersed with sunny periods which will be quite pleasant as overall the temps will be above average. looking further ahead there is a quick collapse of the high amplification and thus the upper trough and no certainty which way this going but the percentage play is a weak through mid Atlantic so the upper flow veering SW but the temps still not bad and maybe still a touch above average.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.png610day.03.gif

Edited by knocker
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Low pressure still due to edge north over the weekend with outbreaks of thundery rain starting in the south west and moving north. From then to the 13th with low pressure situated in the southern quadrant the streamlines will be from the east so dry and and quite warm with temps a little above average.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_19.pngPPVO89.gifgfs_t2maf_slp_eur2_37.png

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The ecm not hugely different to the GFS

ecm_t850_uv_eur_6.png

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Thanks for the very informative summaries, certainly looks much warmer than of late. 

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Afternoon all :)

Definitely something a good deal warmer for a few days at the end of this week and perhaps a storm or two for those that like that some sort of thing with the SW the favoured location and, as Martin rightly says, not warmth for everyone if that haar sets up down the East Coast.

Going further ahead, the concern I have from the morning output is or are the continuing low heights over Europe - both GEM and ECM play this card and to an extent GFS does as well. If the weekend's lower heights simply filter into Europe we will always struggle to get a warm S'ly feed and are much more likely to have heights to the NW and winds from a NE direction.

Low European heights in summer are or can be as frustrating as high heights in winter - a kind of reverse Eurotrash or Bartlett as the winter fans would call it.

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Will definately feel like weve jumped from winter straight into Summer with these sort of temperatures. Showers around mind you but the general feel of things will be vastly different to that of a week ago.

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On 02/05/2016 at 11:35 AM, Captain Shortwave said:

Perhaps hope for summer too as the summer of 1947 was a very good one with good summery spells in each month, interestingly whilst the cold spell of 1947 was the most prolonged spell of easterly winds seen in this part of the world, the second longest period of easterlies also occurred in this year but in August which resulted in a very warm month.

The winter of 1947 is held to be the second coldest winter of the 20th Century, the coldest being 62/63 (which I endured).  However winter 62/63 was the filling of a sandwich of two mediocre summers.

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A new thread seems long overdue so closing this thread now.Link to new thread here 

 

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