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Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I might be inclined to think next week might be a tad early although temps will be rising from the depths. The ext EPS doesn't put the temps much above average until late in the 10-15 period around the 12th  The weather probably remaining unsettled but could be quite interesting. Can't post the EPS 10-15 but it's not a million miles away from the NOAA

 

814day.03.gif

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
1 hour ago, Greenland1080 said:

Current operationals still giving faux pas imho at moment regarding week 2 of May....anomalies show an average if somewhat surpressed  temperature range throughout the Uk.

Weeklies, monthlies showing the way...rather depressing if warm is what your after

image.png

That's not a temperature anomaly chart, though it is influenced by temperatures to some extent.

It corresponds to low pressure W to SW of the UK, placing us generally on the warm side of things, but with the threat of unstable conditions with some heavy showers or spells of rain at times. Also some thundery plume potential depending on how much west-east momentum there is. ECM has that a bit higher than on the 00z days 9-10 which is not great, but at that range, not too concerning especially given the relatively promising GEFS/GFS output in the 10-16 day range lately.

Still a big issue to sort out with respect to how low pressure moves during the middle part of next week. GFS wants to race it across, sweeping aside the first attempt at building warmth into the UK before it's even got underway, with Thu-Fri rather below-par for the time of year. Yet we have ECM building a nice cell of high pressure in on Wed which then provides a bit of resistance against Atlantic lows as it drifts into Europe, resulting in that warm but rather unstable regime. Based on raw data, the CET for example for the first week would be almost 2*C higher under the ECM outcome as opposed to GFS - so it's a considerable difference to be resolved, separating a rather cool start to the month from a slightly warmer than average one.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A glance at the latest EC32 means update.

Starting on Sunday the 8th. The anomaly has a deep trough just to the west of the UK stretching south to N. Africa. Ridging mid Atlantic up to Greenland and another trough Canada. Thus a SW upper flow with a surface analysis of low pressure to the west which would probably produce some interesting weather and at least the temps will rise to around average, maybe a little above.

In the course of the next week until the 15th the trough retrogresses and weakens whilst there is weak ridging to the east into the Baltic. So the upper flow veers WSW with the Azores HP away to the south west. This certainly will bring some drier and pleasant weather to the south with temps in general still around average.

Keeping in mind this is not the full suite the indications are that moving forward to the 26th May the troughing in the Atlantic will be no more and pressure rises from the Azores in the eastern Atlantic will be more influential. This would bring drier weather to the UK although no great impact on the temps keeping them around average.

There is no indication of any sustained building of heights to the east but on the whole I've seen worst scenarios.

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I guess the good thing is that before we even realise it, we're almost through with this darned cold weather! I eagerly await the ECM this morning to see how it shows the low to the SW and corresponding temps.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Still looking consistent this morning, with things warming up by the end of next week with an Icelandic low, and  a cut away low near Iberia. We draw some southerly winds, and 850s of 8-10c again. Certainly a 21c possible there in some sunshine!

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY APR 29TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A depression over NE England will drift out into the North Sea today and fill slowly as a cold and showery NW flow also weakens by tomorrow ahead of a ridge of High pressure moving in from the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to endure very low uppers for the time of year with the freezing level between 1700ft and 3000ft across the UK coupled with wintry showers falling as snow at times. Later in the weekend the levels rise from the West as an Atlantic flow takes hold with the freezing levels rising above all hills apart from over Scotland late on Sunday and Monday as behind a cold front uppers fall back again to around 3000ft with snow showers over the mountains.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming warmer and eventually drier especially in the South at first and the North later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is realigning West to East across the UK over the next few days as the cold Low pressure areas finally dissolve and move away East. The flow then continues in it's new location for some time gradually reforming a trough like pattern over the UK again later before changing to a NE moving flow across the NW of Britain to end the run.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very mixed bag of weather over the UK in the coming few weeks but it's not all bad news as it will be less cool than recently. A SW flow with occasional rain early next week is displaced by higher pressure especially across the South with some pleasant Spring sunshine. Some of this warmth wafts further North next weekend as the High responsible drifts away to the East. Lower pressure then edges across the UK from the West with occasional rain and showers at times before the end of the run shows High pressure making a strong return across the South at least with some warm and sunny weather developing with any unsettled conditions contained well to the NW.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational in theme of warmer conditions countrywide on the way and although never entirely settled there will be plenty of very useable conditions under slack pressure zones over and around the UK giving warm sunshine and some showers to almost anywhere.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clusters today just about show a bias toward Low pressure lying to the West of the UK and a warm Southerly drift for the UK. It must also be mentioned that there are many other alternatives on offer so still no true cohesion between members on what exact weather type we will have at that time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a blustery West to SW flow early next week with some blustery showers in places before High pressure ridges up from the South by midweek with warmer and drier conditions especially across the South and East where it looks like becoming largely dry and pleasant from Wednesday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the theme of the raw data well today showing better conditions under Atlantic winds likely by the middle of next week although these winds ares shown to bring troughs East and SE at times with rain at times especially in the North and West.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning looks quite changeable through it's run with the most notable feature being the very much warmer weather likely to develop with time. In the short term blustery winds from the West will bring some rain and showers early next week before High pressure brings calmer and bright weather. Then as the ridge moves East and declines Southerly winds ahead of a trough brings showery weather across from the West with this theme continuing across the South until the end of the period. With warmer winds from Europe it could well become warm, humid and thundery down across the South by the second weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a brief drier and warmer period towards the middle of next week under a ridge of High pressure crossing East. On this run it doesn't hang around long with Atlantic Low pressure returning some wind and rain at times in a Westerly cyclonic flow by next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows a complex evolution of pressure patterns over the UK in the next 10 days. Things are straightforwards enough in the short term as a deep depression moving ENE well north of Scotland pushes troughs with with wind and rain east and SE across all areas on Sunday and Monday. Then a strong ridge close to the South midweek encourages fine and warmer weather in the South. However, pressure falls a little later with the UK becoming in nomansland with no one pressure area having overall control meaning some showers are inevitable with temperatures close to average or perhaps a little above in any sunny spells towards the 10 day point.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure over or close to the SW with much warmer uppers than of late over the UK in SE winds ensuring warmer weather is likely but with the proximity of Low pressure showery weather at best looking likely. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a change to very much warmer weather with time but still very mixed in regard to specific detail.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.3 pts to UKMO at 87.1 pts and GFS at 83.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.8 pts to 56.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 47.9 pts to 40.5 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The main message from the models this morning maintains the theme of rather warmer weather developing across the Uk from a day or two's time as we finally lose the Northerly sourced airflow and Low pressure across the UK. Instead Low pressure to the NW will become influential late in the weekend with strong and milder WSW winds driving wind and rain bearing fronts East and SE across the UK late on Sunday and Monday. Then a bright and brisk NW flow with sunshine and showers look likely to be replaced by a ridge of High pressure and drier weather for many and it may begin to feel quite warm in any sunshine across the South from midweek. In the period that follows things become very confusing between the models with no clear set pattern shown. The one constant though is warmer conditions and although some Low pressure looks like filtering in from the West by next weekend the rain from these looks quite showery in nature with still a lot of dry weather in between. There is still some support for High pressure to migrate North late in the period with Low pressure to the South setting up a warm, humid and potentially thundery period but this is by no means the universal rule with options of Atlantic westerlies with rain at times just one of alternative options. Which is right is the 64,000,000 dollar question and more runs are needed over the next few days as the pattern that far ahead hopefully becomes more clear. So we can look forward to some warmer and drier weather more akin to May in the weeks ahead although always prepare for a shower at anytime anywhere making it look like a very typical English May Outlook. I'm not around now for a few days but will return for my next report on Tuesday morning. My morning weather forecasts will remain updated as usual but whatever you are doing over the weekend enjoy the somewhat better conditions and hopefully on my next report it all looks warm and summery from the models.

Next Update Tuesday May 3rd 2016 from 09:00

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The good news again this morning is the cold air is about to leave temperatures tomorrow will be widely in double figures marking the start of the change

As bad as Mondays charts looks it won't be a complete washout by any means the rain will clear the SE last but once it's cleared away from your area, it should be a mix of sunshine and showers similar on Tuesday

Recm722.gifRecm962.gif

Mid week sees a ridge of high pressure so settling down for most the exception maybe the far north of Scotland on Wednesday and northern England Thurs

Recm1202.gifRecm1442.gif

By Friday and Saturday we could be seeing our first 20c for England

Recm1682.gifRecm1922.gif

So like I said at the start the cold air is set to leave today with temps slowly but surely edging up starting tomorrow ranging from 9c in Scotland to mid teens in the London area

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

We saw a lot of charts like these last summer:

gens-21-1-240.png

EDM1-240.GIF?29-12

In your heart of hearts, you know they're going to be on the wetter and cooler side than you want, but they just dangle that bit of hope for a July 1st style southerly if the pattern shifts slightly west. Such a fine line between warm (hot?) / sunny, and cool / rainy. Germans will need to be readying their sun-cream for sure. 

Very nice charts for thunder lovers though - prospect of cold fronts moving into continental air.

At last the never-ending winter looks to be ... ending

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

We saw a lot of charts like these last summer:

gens-21-1-240.png

EDM1-240.GIF?29-12

In your heart of hearts, you know they're going to be on the wetter and cooler side than you want, but they just dangle that bit of hope for a July 1st style southerly if the pattern shifts slightly west. Such a fine line between warm (hot?) / sunny, and cool / rainy. Germans will need to be readying their sun-cream for sure. 

Very nice charts for thunder lovers though - prospect of cold fronts moving into continental air.

At last the never-ending winter looks to be ... ending

The good thing with those charts is ens support for milder / warmer air

Reem2402.gifRt850m10.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The GEFS and EPS 7-12 anomalies this morning are very similar with trough to the west stretching down to N. Africa, Thus low pressure to the west and winds in the southerly quadrant picking the temps up to above average. Towards the end of the period the temp may drop a little as the LP edges west and the winds veer more to the SW.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_49.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

On the other side of the pond there is a nasty pattern set up for a repeat of the explosive thunderstorms and tornadoes across the plains in the next few days....hoping there's nothing too monstrous in the offing.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol/South East
  • Location: Bristol/South East

I am liking the model output at the moment. Exciting times ahead with a real shift in temperatures with possibilities of warmer/hotter weather and thunderstorms possibly on the horizon. It's about time we broke our first 21c.

Edited by wishingforsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Slowly but surely things are improving and for the better

Rukm961.gifRukm1201.gifRukm1441.gif

Turning milder for all and actually feeling like spring the only exception is the far north of Scotland where you're closer to low pressure could we see our first 20c in England? It's possible later next week

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The 12z finally sees GFS move in line with ECM and UKMO for Wed-Fri; there's more of an Iberian low and ridge through the UK, allowing warmer air to spend some time across the south at least.

Gets tricky for the weekend with a sharp warm/cold boundary and heavy rain along it - but we can worry about that later!

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

The good thing with those charts is ens support for milder / warmer air

Reem2402.gifRt850m10.gif

Warmer upper air won't matter a jot if we're eventually under slack toughing as some areas will see persistent clod and rain. The warmer areas will likely see heavy showers. May 2007 and June 2007 were both denoted by slack areas of LP and I remember several very chilly days under thundery rain. By the time you're into May, temperatures of 13C feel decidedly chilly!

Luckily some of the wettest charts are at day 10+ at present and subject to change

Rtavn2401.gif

Rtavn2881.gif

 

I think heat lovers will want to see a settled and warm spell start materialising from now as I think given the transition to Nina, we could be facing some very wet days into July and more especially August.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The GEFS 7-12 anomaly is dragging the upper trough a fair way down to the SSW giving quite a long fetch to the streamlines and a warmer interlude. See how this pans out with the others.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_49.pnggefs_t2ma_5d_eur_49.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
14 hours ago, knocker said:

A glance at the latest EC32 means update.

Starting on Sunday the 8th. The anomaly has a deep trough just to the west of the UK stretching south to N. Africa. Ridging mid Atlantic up to Greenland and another trough Canada. Thus a SW upper flow with a surface analysis of low pressure to the west which would probably produce some interesting weather and at least the temps will rise to around average, maybe a little above.

In the course of the next week until the 15th the trough retrogresses and weakens whilst there is weak ridging to the east into the Baltic. So the upper flow veers WSW with the Azores HP away to the south west. This certainly will bring some drier and pleasant weather to the south with temps in general still around average.

Keeping in mind this is not the full suite the indications are that moving forward to the 26th May the troughing in the Atlantic will be no more and pressure rises from the Azores in the eastern Atlantic will be more influential. This would bring drier weather to the UK although no great impact on the temps keeping them around average.

There is no indication of any sustained building of heights to the east but on the whole I've seen worst scenarios.

 

The important thing is average temperatures in May is still comfortable. As long as it's dry then it won't feel bad at all.

 

We saw a lot of charts like these last summer:

gens-21-1-240.png

EDM1-240.GIF?29-12

In your heart of hearts, you know they're going to be on the wetter and cooler side than you want, but they just dangle that bit of hope for a July 1st style southerly if the pattern shifts slightly west. Such a fine line between warm (hot?) / sunny, and cool / rainy. Germans will need to be readying their sun-cream for sure. 

Very nice charts for thunder lovers though - prospect of cold fronts moving into continental air.

At last the never-ending autumn looks to be ... ending

 

Fixed :D

Edited by Snowy L
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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Warmer upper air won't matter a jot if we're eventually under slack toughing as some areas will see persistent clod and rain. The warmer areas will likely see heavy showers. May 2007 and June 2007 were both denoted by slack areas of LP and I remember several very chilly days under thundery rain. By the time you're into May, temperatures of 13C feel decidedly chilly!

Luckily some of the wettest charts are at day 10+ at present and subject to change

Rtavn2401.gif

Rtavn2881.gif

 

I think heat lovers will want to see a settled and warm spell start materialising from now as I think given the transition to Nina, we could be facing some very wet days into July and more especially August.

So we may aswell write off summer then? I thought nina wasn't going to happen until around September?

Edited by 40*C
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
23 minutes ago, 40*C said:

So we may aswell write off summer then? I thought nina wasn't going to happen until around September?

HputmEz.gif

Liklihood we'll be in Nina territory by July....it's a toss up as to whether the atmosphere engages a full Nina base state as soon as June IMO. Doesn't look good but the weather will always surprise us. 

As I said a few weeks back I fear for a lot of people come winter if we see a wet summer....not just the usual suspects being flooded come November if the worst case scenario happens i.e wet winter/wet summer/wet winter combo.

Best case scenario- we straddle ENSO neutral for a while before a weaker Nina in time for winter. However, the rate of cooling we're seeing in the Pacific suggests we'll be at a Nina very soon.

Not a forecast (purely for illustrative purposes) but CFS monthly shows the potential that a Nina influenced June & July have

cfs-4-6-2016.png?00

cfs-4-7-2016.png?00

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A familiar scenario with the ecm and NOAA 8-14 anomalies. They are both similar to the ecm 6-10 except both negatively align the trough just to the west. Two things here. How far south the trough stretches and the precise orientation to the west in relation to the UK, Best case scenario we are looking at a fairly long fetch which will give a period of temps above average and possibly some interesting weather. Towards the end of the period the trough weakens and moves west thus veering the upper streamlines.

814day.03.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
28 minutes ago, 40*C said:

So we may aswell write off summer then? I thought nina wasn't going to happen until around September?

So did I. The last BOM wrap up.

Quote

Six of eight international climate models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will return to neutral levels within the next month. By September, seven of eight models suggest La Niña thresholds are likely. However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
5 minutes ago, knocker said:

So did I. The last BOM wrap up.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

The average of the modelling has us comfortably in Nina by July (from same site)

ms_nino05.png

POAMA model has us in Nina by June

20160426.poama_nino34.png

 

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

HputmEz.gif

Liklihood we'll be in Nina territory by July....it's a toss up as to whether the atmosphere engages a full Nina base state as soon as June IMO. Doesn't look good but the weather will always surprise us. 

As I said a few weeks back I fear for a lot of people come winter if we see a wet summer....not just the usual suspects being flooded come November if the worst case scenario happens i.e wet winter/wet summer/wet winter combo.

Best case scenario- we straddle ENSO neutral for a while before a weaker Nina in time for winter. However, the rate of cooling we're seeing in the Pacific suggests we'll be at a Nina very soon.

Not a forecast (purely for illustrative purposes) but CFS monthly shows the potential that a Nina influenced June & July have

 

I worry for this country full-stop should a combination come to fruition - not just damaging to the tourism industry by forcing people abroad, but damaging to the wider economy due to the disruption caused by excessive rain and its impacts (flooding etc).

The prospect of a dreary, wet winter followed by a dreary, wet summer will be the death of this climate, let alone the prospect of a dreary, wet summer being followed by another atrocious winter.

All we can do is hope that summer is at least average if nothing better. The ground still needs to dry out - any more rain will be bad news for us all. If this kind of thing continues in vain then I will seriously contemplate my options vis-a-vis immigrating. 

Edited by cheese
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