Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[knocker]

The NOAA and ecm 5-10 anomalies are in the sale ball park, certainly regarding the upper low. Thus a westerly flow with systems traversing the UK, bringing unsettled conditions interspersed with sunny interludes and temps still a little below average.

In the latter period they are not dissimilar although the EPS makes rather more of the trough just to the west of the UK and the ridging over Scandinavia thus backing the upper flow more to the SSW. This is more noticeable towards the end of the run so it maybe NOAA hasn't picked this up yet but this does impact the temps and they become above average. Weatherwise probably still unsettled in the northern half of Britain with temps nearer average and drier in the south and east.

Edited April 27, 2016 by knocker

[Scorcher]

There certainly seems to be a glimmer of hope this evening for those wanting something warmer. I really am finding this current spell truly miserable. It has seemed never ending, but it seems we may finally be about to turn a corner into next week.

[knocker]

Today we move into another regime as a depression swings SE into Scotland. This could bring a fair amount of snow into the central belt and lowlands today and overnight and even down to northern England on the high ground. Further south rain will move east.

Moving in to the weekend Saturday sees HP briefly pushing up from the SW and will be the best day of the holiday weekend. Overnight more frontal systems with rain push in from the west and the next batch on Monday as a deepening depression tracks NE to be east of Iceland.

 

[knocker]

This morning's GEFS anomalies still looking at the scenario outlined yesterday evening During the next ten days the trough to the north of the UK will weaken and slowly re-orientate to a position just to the west of the UK. This process will back the upper flow from westerly to south westerly thus raising the temps to around average albeit the weather still unsettled.

During the next five days this trough will slowly weaken and the European HP flexes it's muscles and pushes north.into the Baltic. Winds still in the SW/SSW quadrant but a likely improvement to drier and warmer weather with temps a little above average, more particularly in the south and east.

 

Edited April 28, 2016 by knocker

[mb018538]

ECM shows it turning pretty warm in the south for Thursday/Friday next week, 850s touching 10c in parts of the south.

There's a huge 1040mb high over the arctic though which is worrying....looks like we could be headed down the wrong path for a while again after next weekend!

[Singularity]

Not necessarily - signs are that an Arctic High + strong ridge from the mid-latitudes combo will be setting up well west of where it has been in recent times, driving cold air down into the mid-Atlantic with trough development some way W and SW of the UK.

The question then becomes how deep and far south is that trough. Weaker and further south encourages decent ridge development across Europe with warm air moving north across Western Europe, as ECM shows very nicely this morning.

GFS drops similar hints but later in time, with next week's low tracking further north and being a real pain as it interacts with the warm plume as that draws close to the UK. Hopefully this model is being too flat with the jet stream configuration and we'll see a taste of summer sooner rather than later.

The long term signal for big heigh rises to our east and extending west to benefit us is looking pretty robust this morning - at a glance on my phone, anyway. 

[Frosty.]

Nice looking Ecm 00z in the later frames with increasingly warm air pumping up from southern Europe and into the UK from later next week onwards which becomes quite a locked in pattern with potentially even warmer conditions beyond T+240 hours...hopefully the models will firm up on this and we have a much warmer summerlike spell through early / mid May!

[mb018538]

Indeed chaps - ECM is certainly a best case scenario, with a stalling Iberian low pulling up some very warm air indeed. Expect our first 21c of the year if it verifies! GFS shows how this could be very different if things set up in a slightly different position. Hoping for some warmth as I'm away down the coast that weekend!

[MP-R]

Interesting how the GFS has completely ditched the idea of warmth that it had shown a quite a few times leading up to yesterday. ECM on the other hand, as mb018538 points out, is the more favourable for warmth. Both models however show quite a cyclonic setup which, with a feed of warmth from the continent, would give quite the opposite feel to what we've been used to recently. I look forward to further runs. Personally I'd much prefer cyclonic warmth earlier on in May with longer settled spells arriving later in the month and into June/July.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY APR 28TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A small depression will move slowly East across Scotland tomorrow with a strengthening Westerly flow to it's South bringing troughs of Low pressure SE across the UK tonight.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK sees very low uppers across the UK still though with the levels rising later in the weekend. In the meantime levels of between 2000-3000ft as the freezing level means that snowfall under the unsettled conditions could reach quite low levels at times with settling snow on quite modest hills at times.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming warmer and eventually drier especially in the South at first and the North later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream which has been moving South down across the UK over recent days continues to trend towards blowing more west to East across the UK next week though it takes some time to remove the trough in the flow near the UK. then late in the period it appears to desire to move well South of the UK blocked by higher pressure to the NE.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of chilly weather again as High pressure blocking to the North of the UK continues to be persistent in the longer term. However, in the short term the model shows the current cold and unsettled pattern will decay in the wake of milder West or SW winds next week when the North and West sees the most of the rain while the South and East sees drier and brighter weather before we see a return of High pressure to the North and lower pressure coming up from the South or SW with thundery rain in places but with a much warmer version of continental winds this time around.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational in trend as warmer uppers eventually become established across the UK. This doesn't mean wall to wall dry and sunny weather as injections of Low pressure from the West and SW at times from later next week continue to bring the risk of more unsettled conditions with rain or showers but at least the rain will be warmer.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The clusters today show a bias towards Low pressure lying to the South and West of the UK with warmer continental winds blowing across the UK with rain at times. there are other options available too ranging from Low pressure over the NW of the UK and High pressure established well to the SW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a blustery West to NW flow from Sunday with a band of rain crossing SE followed by brighter and more showery conditions over the Bank Holiday Monday with a ridge following settling things down for a time towards the middle of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today follows the raw data above well as the current cold Low pressure is replaced by something a little more average for late April synoptically with Low pressure to the North with troughs moving Se across the UK with the familiar band of rain followed by showers in somewhat less cold air than of late.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning looks quite encouraging if it's High pressure your after as this weekends Low pressure area up to the NW carries bands of rain and showers SE which become followed by a build of pressure from the South and SW towards the middle of next week, gradually extending it's influence up and across all areas as it becomes the main feature of the weather over and around the UK late in the period with warm continental winds and perhaps showers in the South blowing up across the UK from the SE or East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows High pressure building from the South towards the middle of next week but the problem here is that the High may become drawn back west or NW of the UK by next weekend which would spell cooler conditions following a warmer interlude next week but at least it looks generally quite dry for many after the early days of the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today also follows the theme of a windy and showery start to next week but once the parent Low responsible moves away NE pressure rises from the South midweek with drier and warmer conditions in the South. This theme takes rather longer to reach the North with a reversion to showery Low pressure to move over from the West and South later but with much warmer uppers from Europe making things potentially thundery late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure over or close to the SW with much warmer uppers than of late over the UK in SE winds ensuring warmer weather is likely but with the proximity of Low pressure showery weather at best looking likely. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a change to very much warmer weather with time but still remaining rather changeable.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.3 pts to UKMO at 87.0 pts and GFS at 83.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.4 pts to 56.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 47.3 pts to 37.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Finally it looks like by this time in two weeks time Spring may have properly sprung as the synoptic patterns surrounding the British isles at that time point all appear to show much warmer uppers across the UK than currently. Mind you we are not properly out of the woods yet with the next few days continuing the cold and in places unseasonable weather with rain, hill snow and frost still prevalent. However, by Sunday winds will of backed to a milder westerly with a band of rain moving SE across the UK late Sunday/ early Monday and this will be followed by a chilly and showery WNW flow under rising pressure. By midweek many Southern areas look like becoming dry with warmer day temperatures and nigh temperatures recovering too reducing the risk of frost. But it's then from late next week the most encouraging synoptics develop with regard to temperature as many model runs support the High pressure in the South migrating both east and north to affect all of the UK with warmer winds from the South or Se most likely and it may become rather warm at times. It may not be settled though as all the time it looks like pressure will be falling again to the South and SW with outbreaks of showery and potentially showery rain looking likely later. So that's the general theme as I see it this morning meaning that after what has seemed perpetual Autumn as somebody mentioned recently it looks at last we may be moving towards something more May like which given the very chilly April days gone will feel very pleasant indeed in the ever lengthening days and warm sunshine that will inevitably occur between the showers. Let's hope the models do not backtrack in the coming days.. 

Next Update Friday April 29th 2016 from 09:00

[Yarmy]

The GEFS mean also points towards a gradually improving picture in the longer range:

From...

 

...to...

 

[knocker]

The ecm 5-10 anomaly this morning has the upper low to the NW with the trough extending south to the west of the UK with another vortex over Canada with a convenient gateway between the two So upper winds in the westerly quadrant and still unsettled with temps a little below average.

But at the end of this period, and the beginning of the next, it begins to orientate the UK trough further south just west Iberia, simultaneously there are height rises to the east into the Baltic,thus the upper flow backs SW/SSW accompanied by the temp rising to a little above average.

[johnholmes]

The signal from most 6-15 day model outputs does seem to be turning to a less cold level of temperatures. Detail is obviously far from clear. But an upper trough somewhere west or south west of the UK seems the most likely set up. On most anomaly 500mb charts the flow is predicted to come from south of the Gt Lakes as it exits North America. Something it has done only now and then over the past few weeks. Just how warm or settled is not clear to me at the moment. links below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?mode=0&code=0&ech=192&map=1&runpara=

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS 6z continues to show an unsettled cool W/N/W flow for the 1st week of May and into week 2.  Further into the run and there are still signs that temps will return to something more average for the time of year, As High Pressure tries to push over the UK settling things down especially for the South..

 

[William Grimsley]

If the ECM verifies, the 2nd week of May could be a very warm and thundery week. I go up to Marlow the weekend after the ECM run ends so it could be quite a thundery holiday!

[Frosty.]

24 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

If the ECM verifies, the 2nd week of May could be a very warm and thundery week. I go up to Marlow the weekend after the ECM run ends so it could be quite a thundery holiday!

Fingers crossed, I for one are looking for a warm / very warm southerly plume during May and hopefully the Ecm is on the right track....time we had some warmth!

[Summer Sun]

Monday is looking rather breezy with frequent showers but temps should be in double figures as early as Saturday maybe even the mid teens for the London area

That low slowly moves away as high pressure begins to push up

 

[Milhouse]

These sort of temperatures would do nicely after such a cold and unsettled week.

[Frosty.]

Good news on the Gfs 12z op during low res with charts which look more seasonal for late spring with temperatures recovering considerably from where we are currently and high pressure influence increases through early to mid May, these charts make pleasant viewing.

[Scorcher]

The ECM 12Z is also showing a notable warm up next week- the temperatures are nothing exceptional but it would be some turnaround from this horror week we've been having. It would certainly feel a lot warmer after these bitter conditions- and temperatures could be widely in the high teens across England and Wales, with 20C+ possible in the south from midweek onwards.

Edited April 28, 2016 by Scorcher

[Frosty.]

Yes the Ecm 12z shows much better conditions by the second half of next week with pressure and temperatures rising, it becomes warm across southern parts of the uk..good signs from the 12z output!

[Summer Sun]

Not completely dry from the ECM but more importantly becoming warmer

We're still waiting our first 20c in England somewhere in the south could hit it later next week

[ANYWEATHER]

11 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The ECM 12Z is also showing a notable warm up next week- the temperatures are nothing exceptional but it would be some turnaround from this horror week we've been having. It would certainly feel a lot warmer after these bitter conditions- and temperatures could be widely in the high teens across England and Wales, with 20C+ possible in the south from midweek onwards.

Evening ! The Ecm has been promising Spring for a while,,,,its never comes!  So without a Winter and a Spring will Summer make an early arrival????!!!!

[knocker]

But warming nicely in the SSW flow. According to the GEFS of course.

[wishingforsnow]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

But warming nicely in the SSW flow. According to the GEFS of course.

Yes, good agreement from the models of a warm up starting next week  Hopefully this actually verifies and becomes the start of a continued trend of less and less cooler and unsettled weather as we slowly move into early Summer throughout May.

It's been a mixed week here in the South so far, bipolar is what I would use to describe it - and Spring 2016 so far in general with sunny spells and sleet showers in the same day(!) But it has felt notably cooler than mid month and a real warm up cannot come soon enough. I actually had an air frost late afternoon. I think this week is feeling more like Winter than most of Winter 15/16 did  

Edited April 28, 2016 by wishingforsnow