Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Coming back to more reliable time frame. The low pressure feature on Thursday into Thursday night could well bring some Snow for a few of us. Friday morning maybe interesting.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM showing a slightly better weekend, especially so for the south

Recm961.gifRecm1201.gif

But things quickly go down hill on Monday with wet and windy weather for most areas the low, then hangs around on Tuesday before slowly moving away during the 2nd half of next week

Recm1441.gifRecm1681.gifRecm1921.gif

ECM ends with a southerly not lasting long though one would suspect with low pressure closing in from the Atlantic

Recm2161.gifRecm2401.gif

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Let's star  looking at today for a change. With the negatively tilted upper trough orientated down the North Sea and steep lapse rates ( 500mb -37C at Albermarle at 00z) over most of the UK the day is set for some wintry showers down the spine of the country but really pretty much everywhere Winds will be lighter along the east coast. Certainly many Cbs bouncing around.

rel_vort_60.gif700wind_pw_60.gif

Moving on the GFS has the first low over Scotland on Friday which tracks into the North Sea with the next frontal system sweeping through Saturday night. Saturday will probably be the best day this weekend. This is quickly followed by a deepening depression tracking NE bringing more wet weather and perhaps severe gales to Scotland.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_10.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_23.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Looking like a couple of warmer days towards the back end of next week, but after that low pressure moves back in, with heights again rising behind....until this northerly blocking vanishes, we've got no chance of anything sustained, dry and warmer holding on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Aye MB. ECM op has ditched any sign of a high pressure moving in. Looks like after this cold spell that the Atlantic will be moving in for next week.

Rainfall above average with continued suppressed temps and windy too.

Perpetual Autumn continues.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY APR 27TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold North-Westerly flow continues to blow down across the UK backing towards the West tomorrow as a new Low pressure area approaches Western Ireland later tomorrow with troughs poised to cross East over the UK tomorrow night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK sees very low uppers across the UK still with little sign of any significant change in the coming days. The freezing level will remain around 1700-3000ft through the next few days with snowfall expected across modest hills UK wide on occasion over the coming days.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming less cold and changeable with rain at times chiefly in the North and West with longer drier periods towards the South and East.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream which has been moving South down across the UK over recent days will slowly back West to East across the UK in a couple of days time. The flow then remains in this position for a time before gradually setting up a trough to the West of the UK later. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a cold and showery Northerly flow backing towards the West today and tomorrow gradually being replaced by a new depression moving across the North on Friday. This means a couple more showery days before wet and windy conditions with snow in the North move through late tomorrow and lingering in the South Friday. Another cold and showery weekend seems likely for many before Westerly winds next week bring further wet and windy spells although becoming less cold for many. With low pressure to the North the South and East could see longer drier periods with the North and West seeing the most wind and rain. Through the second week all areas are shown to become unsettled again with showers with hints of a more summery area of High pressure from Europe to end the run with fine and warm conditions developing for most areas should it verify.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational today with the cold and showery theme gradually giving ground from the weekend with Westerly winds and rain at times in less cold weather next week before all areas become showery for a time under slack UK placed Low pressure with the same better weather shown in the Operational Run duplicated on this run too albeit with thundery Low pressure lying to the South of the UK later in a strong and blustery Easterly wind with strong High pressure to the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  Another mixed bag from the Clusters this morning with a lot of different scenarios on the table for 14 days time. No one pressure theme is shown with changeable being the main term I would use to describe any one of the weather types shown.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the end of the cold weather on Saturday as the Low approaching the UK tomorrow drifts away to the East on Saturday. This is then followed by a ridge of High pressure on Sunday with cloud and rain spreading in from the West on Monday under a strong westerly breeze especially over the North. This is then chased away by bright and breezy less cold Westerly winds by midweek next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate well a move away from the cold Northerly sourced air across the UK at the weekend as the showery Low pressure and troughs responsible move away to the East on Saturday. A ridge of High pressure means the South sees a drier spell on Sunday as troughs on this run are shown to mostly affect the North with rain and strong winds moving East while the South becoming breezy and less cold sees less in the way of rainfall.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning also shows the end of the cold period from the weekend as Low pressure further to the North of the UK brings Westerly winds and rain at times across the UK from Sunday evening. Through next week strong westerly winds bring further showers or rain at times and it will still feel chilly in the blustery wind. Then late next week the winds veer Northerly again as Low pressure drifts to the East and with pressure building to the West again a cold Northerly flow with showers return with the risk of ground frosts at night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also less cold conditions on the way as Low pressure features much further to the North of the UK than recently with westerly winds developing from the weekend and while not warm these winds will bring a more seasonal mix of sunshine and occasional rain chiefly across the North and West with drier and warmer weather for all looking likely to develop late next week as High pressure builds up from the South and SW. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today also shows changeable but less cold conditions developing as it's main theme this morning. The current cold and unsettled weather eases at the weekend as winds back towards the West. however, strong Westerly winds will bring rain at times to many areas followed by a blustery WNW flow with showers early next week. then a ridge of High pressure further increases temperatures to average at least with some pleasant weather especially in the South. It may not last long though as this run indicates Low pressure returning late next week and weekend with rain or showers developing for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure to the North or NE maintaining changeable conditions with some rain or showers likely for many areas at times but it should remain feeling less cold than currently. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a change to a more Westerly based weather pattern from late in the weekend lasting through next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.3 pts to UKMO at 87.0 pts and GFS at 83.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.9 pts to 55.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 46.4 pts to 38.1 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The theme of less cold weather shown across the models continues today although I use the term 'less cold' with caution as I wouldn't want readers to think a warm spell is on the way soon as that still looks unlikely. However, having said that the end of the cold Northerly flow is nigh as a Low pressure area crossing East over the UK tomorrow night is the last within the cold sourced airflow so we have several more days of relatively cold and unsettled conditions to go. It's Sunday when winds back towards the West or SW and milder air is pushed across the UK although with Low pressure then to the NW of the UK driving fronts East with rain at times especially towards the North and West and then following that is a blustery and cool feeling bright and breezy mix of sunshine and rain showers towards midweek. Thereafter there is still a lot of indecision shown within the output and GEM notably dips us back into a cold Northerly. ECM too brings unsettled weather back towards the end of next week after a brief warmer ridge midweek with GFS bringing High pressure across and eventually settling to the North with a warmer continental feed towards the end of the second week. So as you can see wild fluctuations between the models longer term remain but leaving GEM aside we should see the very last of the cold weather of this season depart at the weekend with something more average from next week with rain at times for many but unfortunately any longer term warm and settled conditions on a UK wide basis still looks a long way off this morning. 

Next Update Thursday April 28th 2016 from 09:00

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
31 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Aye MB. ECM op has ditched any sign of a high pressure moving in. Looks like after this cold spell that the Atlantic will be moving in for next week.

Rainfall above average with continued suppressed temps and windy too.

Perpetual Autumn continues.

Well, not quite it still builds it for a few days next week

ecm500.168.pngecm500.192.png

It could feel quite warm, especially in the south mid week as winds come up from the south west

We end with low pressure moving in from the Atlantic

ecm500.216.pngecm500.240.png

A quick look at GEM and it's not interested in any high pressure

Rgem1681.gifRgem2161.gifRgem2401.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm runs the shortwave that develops in the southern circulation of the main depression situated in  the Iceland area on Sunday NE to be 976mb just north of Scotland Monday 12z. If this verified it could bring gusts of 60+ kts to northern Scotland.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The NetWx-MR Model shows a Snow risk over the Midlands North Friday, Especially over the spine of the UK down to 100m

a.pngb.pngc.png

 

As we head into May the GFS this morning shows the flow turning more a N/Wly of the Atlantic, Bringing unsettled cool conditions with much higher rainfall accumulations than of late. Spring is certainly on hold!

d.pnge.pngf.png

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
34 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm runs the shortwave that develops in the southern circulation of the main depression situated in  the Iceland area on Sunday NE to be 976mb just north of Scotland Monday 12z. If this verified it could bring gusts of 60+ kts to northern Scotland.

Yes Knocker, One to keep tabs on. GFS similar down to 974mb Low during the early hours on Monday as it brushes the far N/W Scotland then heads towards Iceland. 

a.pngb.pngc.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

I foresee a wet (at least) first third to May going by the last series of runs - in fact the GFS has hinted at possible warmth and thunderyness towards the end of next week between overall Atlantic domination. Equally, heights building over Europe towards FI is an encouraging sign even though a lot can change between now and then. Despite the excitement caused by this week's northerly weather, incursions of warmth from the south or perhaps increasing high pressure dominance from Europe or the SW is very much welcome imo.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
50 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I foresee a wet (at least) first third to May going by the last series of runs - in fact the GFS has hinted at possible warmth and thunderyness towards the end of next week between overall Atlantic domination. Equally, heights building over Europe towards FI is an encouraging sign even though a lot can change between now and then. Despite the excitement caused by this week's northerly weather, incursions of warmth from the south or perhaps increasing high pressure dominance from Europe or the SW is very much welcome imo.

Yes, this cold, whilst certainly giving some thrilling cloudscapes and precipitation types, can move on quickly now as far as I'm concerned. Some tentative signs of warmer interludes next week and height rises over Europe are most welcome. Currently those heights are modelled to be way too far E on the GFS; ideally, heights shouldn't be any further E than Germany to allow us to benefit from warm S airflows and keep the Atlantic air out W.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 hours ago, knocker said:

The ecm 6-10 anomaly has the upper low between Iceland and Scotland thus an unsettled westerly regime with temps still a little below average.

ecm_eps_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

 

Indeed knocks but the solid ens trend thereafter is to dig the Atlantic trough to our sw. Will it be far enough away to allow settled warmth or will it be damp warmth?  Either way, a recovery to more seasonal temps or even potentially warm seems likely for the second week of May. Suspect the east coast could be at risk from cooler north sea flow if the trough pushes further east and swings a more se axis. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Yes, Bluearmy is onto something here - going to be worth studying the D10-D15 ensemble output in the next few days, as a height rise of some sort towards central/eastern Europe looks likely :

gens-21-1-336.png

if anyone looks further at the individual ens members, they will see that this idea of a SW-based Azores ridge / trough to W Ireland / ridge in C Europe is a very common theme. Question is, where will the boundaries lie between the trough and the ridge? Very difficult to call yet, and I'm surprised some are already nailing their colours to the mast for early May with such confidence. To me, some sort of warm S/SEly is a 30% chance going by the charts we can see today (which in turn means a 70% chance of just being under the trough and wet, of course)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

During Sunday low pressure starts to move in from the west this will give us a wet and windy BH Monday

UW96-21.GIF?27-18UW120-21.GIF?27-18

Into Tuesday high pressure edges up into the south, so it should settle down here still some rain or showers further north

UW144-21.GIF?27-18

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Something that hasnt happened really all Spring. A pleasant southerly developing with high pressure setting up residence over Europe, which is often a promising sign for the UK. Feeling milder for all next week with temperatures back into double figures and a much more typical outlook for the time of year :D

Rtavn2641.gif

 

Edited by Milhouse
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

And on into FI the GFS inproves further with an early taste of Summer


Rtavn3601.gif

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
6 minutes ago, Milhouse said:

Something that hasnt happened really all Spring. A pleasant southerly developing with high pressure setting up residence over Europe, which is often a promising sign for the UK. Feeling milder for all next week with temperatures back into double figures and a much more typical outlook for the time of year :D

Rtavn2641.gif

 

Makes a change seeing yellow and not blue on the 850's over the UK

gem-1-198.png?12

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM following the other models giving a very unsettled BH Monday possibly gales in the far north the low, then hangs around on Tuesday 980mb on Monday and 985 on Tuesday so staying quite deep over the 24 hour period

ECM1-120.GIF?27-0ECM1-144.GIF?27-0

Its takes to mid week for the low to finally get pushed away as high pressure edges up

ECM1-168.GIF?27-0

Anyone seeking some warmth head to western Spain or Portugal temps in Lisbon should be in the mid 20's during our BH weekend

ECS0-120.GIF?27-0

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The GEFS 5-10 anomaly still showing the upper low to the NNW maintaining an unsettled westerly regime with systems traversing the UK bringing some wet and windy weather, particularly in the north and temps slowly rising but still a little below average. In the 10-15 range the upper low slowly transforms into a trough to the west of the UK which gradually edges west. Thus the upper flow backing SW and although still unsettled the temps rising to around average or even a little above. But one should note that towards the end of the period the trough has weakened and high pressure builds to the east thus backing the upper more to SSW. This of course has a good impact on the temps. Have to wait to see what the ecm and NOAA come up with.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.pnggefs_t2ma_5d_eur_61.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ringwood, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Ringwood, Hampshire

ECM 12z 240h would bring up some milder air the following frames

GFS_HGTMSL_240.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More rain on the way: Storm Nelson brings gales Thursday, but rain and wind easing for Easter

    Spells of rain or showers with sunshine in between affecting most areas today, snow over northern hills. Storm Nelson arrives tomorrow, bringing gales to southern coasts and windy elsewhere with further showers. Showers and wind easing somewhat into the Easter Weekend. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-27 09:35:27 Valid: 27/03/2024 0900 - 28/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 27 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...