Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[Relativistic]

3 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

I'm still left wondering that if we don't manage a 20c somewhere next week (as almost advertised by the GFS) whether we might go all the way through to May without doing so? Certainly none of the modelling for the last third of the month suggests we will even get close.

 

I think I'm right in saying that would be the first time since 2006? And prior to that 1983?

Surely 2013 did it? I think many places did it last year.

[Frank Trough]

2 minutes ago, Relativistic Sting Jet said:

Surely 2013 did it? I think many places did it last year.

20c was definitely passed somewhere before May in both 2013 and 2015. April last year was warm and sunny  in fact it was the third sunniest and third warmest in the last century. Apparently!

[Ben Lewis]

Great post Gibby as usual.

Yes the models show a lot of dry weather over the next 7 days, once the rain clears tomorrow. Possibly some warmth especially down here for Mid next week, who cares if there's no heat/record warmth - at least it will be DRY. Its only 15th April so the FI LA LA LA charts showing cold weather mean nothing to me - Fun to speculate of course. It will all change this time next week.

Not long before we start seeing those 22-25c temps on the models progged for May. Well hopefully.

 

[Relativistic]

1 hour ago, Certain kind of fool said:

20c was definitely passed somewhere before May in both 2013 and 2015. April last year was warm and sunny  in fact it was the third sunniest and third warmest in the last century. Apparently!

April 2015 was definitely warm but it was consistently high teens rather than into the 20's. I seem to remember lots of talk about how people still hadn't recorded 20C in their locations well into May. But I agree, in some parts (mainly down south) the 20C mark would have been hit before then.

Having looked back at what my weather station recorded in April 2013, we did hit 20C on three occasions, in what was overall quite a cool month.

So yes, it must be 2006. Would be interesting to see it happen again.

[MP-R]

5 minutes ago, Relativistic Sting Jet said:

April 2015 was definitely warm but it was consistently high teens rather than into the 20's. I seem to remember lots of talk about how people still hadn't recorded 20C in their locations well into May. But I agree, in some parts (mainly down south) the 20C mark would have been hit before then.

Having looked back at what my weather station recorded in April 2013, we did hit 20C on three occasions, in what was overall quite a cool month.

So yes, it must be 2006. Would be interesting to see it happen again.

Don't forget the particularly warm spell around this time last April. Frittenden hit 25C on the 15th in fact.

[Chris.R]

 First 20°C here last year was on 4 June. 

[Weather26]

Which reminds me-I don't think we have had the first place to hit 20.c thread yet.

[johnholmes]

how about we discuss what the models are showing rather than reminiscing over past years please?

No sign of any marked rise in temperatures using the 6-15 day anomaly charts, coolish for most much of the time, more ridge conditions in the west with parts of the east more affected by the uppoer trough, links below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[knocker]

I see the gfs is now trying to push some thundery stuff into the SW mid week before the cold northerly

[phil nw.]

Some contrast in the feel of things over the next week which is pretty typical of April.

A good dig of Arctic air is now coming south with rain and some hill snow through the next 18hrs or so.Look out for quite a widespread frost Saturday night as skies clear and winds fall light as a ridge moves in from the west. A brief warm up looks likely around around mid-week as pressure builds briefly across the UK  before another Arctic plunge by next weekend.

GFS T24hrs                                                         T120hrs                                                              

T174hrs,

 

Overall April continues to look rather cool overall with just the odd day or 2 looking anything like warm and that mainly further south.

London ens temp graph underlines this.

The current pattern of Atlantic heights ridging  towards Greenland and further Scandinavian troughing looks like repeating into week 2 much as supported in the NOAA anomalies shown in John's post earlier.

Day 10 GEFs

so apart from just the brief improvement early next week there looks to be still a lot of cool and rather changeable weather on offer over the next couple of weeks with the wait for any prolonged warm and settled Spring like weather continuing. 

 

Edited April 15, 2016 by phil nw.

[knocker]

The GEFS anomalies are now very similar the last EPS position

[Singularity]

We've been hard pressed to get the 850's below -5*C across such a large area around the UK in the depth of the past few winters!

Simply incredible, and not great if you have a week off in the final week like my old man does! I fear some (unusually) grumpy conversations may be on their way.

[049balt]

13 minutes ago, Singularity said:

We've been hard pressed to get the 850's below -5*C across such a large area around the UK in the depth of the past few winters!

Simply incredible, and not great if you have a week off in the final week like my old man does! I fear some (unusually) grumpy conversations may be on their way.

Thats a long way off, lets hope April ends better than this chart suggests.

[Eugene]

22 minutes ago, Singularity said:

We've been hard pressed to get the 850's below -5*C across such a large area around the UK in the depth of the past few winters!

Simply incredible, and not great if you have a week off in the final week like my old man does! I fear some (unusually) grumpy conversations may be on their way.

 

Looks great, nice clear Arctic air and crisp clear skies, will feel lovely in the strong sun, still puzzles me why such charts are frowned upon in April but not January, its not Summer yet then i might understand it, people still want southerlies in October.

[Summer Sun]

How far west the high goes next weekend will make a big difference in temperatures

GFS has more of a NE'ly flow with the best of the weather in the far west and south west

ECM has the 850's a good deal lower

GEM on the other hand has the high much closer by with the best conditions again in the far west and south west

Edited April 15, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Bristawl Si]

49 minutes ago, Eugene said:

 

Looks great, nice clear Arctic air and crisp clear skies, will feel lovely in the strong sun, still puzzles me why such charts are frowned upon in April but not January, its not Summer yet then i might understand it, people still want southerlies in October.

Because cold in April is a damned nuisance.

Starts to screw with things one has planned. Who wants the gas firing up on the central heating in April?

Hopefully these kind of charts will disappear v soon and make their next appearance in November.

[Captain Shortwave]

1 hour ago, Eugene said:

 

Looks great, nice clear Arctic air and crisp clear skies, will feel lovely in the strong sun, still puzzles me why such charts are frowned upon in April but not January, its not Summer yet then i might understand it, people still want southerlies in October.

Well at least there seems to be grounds for some decent instability with cold 850s mixed with low surface and 500mb heights. It is probably a more interesting option to the likes of the GEM where infill could be a real issue with cool northerlies and much higher heights.

Still a long way to go before then with a cold weekend before a potential warm up (especially in the south where 20C shouldn't be ruled out by Thursday) before temperatures plunge again. Not overly bothered and again we could see a real wide range of conditions over the next week or so.

[knocker]

Some people keep saying next weekend and after is a long way off but the anomalies have been pretty consistent vis the upper air pattern for a couple of fays now. The EPS this evening 8-13 day mean has the deep trough due east and the northerlies for the period giving a negative 850mb temp anomaly in the 5-6C range. It may not pan out quite this way of course but I wouldn't bet the house on there not being a cold spell around this time. But I would be more than happy to be wrong.

[Snowy L]

3 hours ago, Eugene said:

 

Looks great, nice clear Arctic air and crisp clear skies, will feel lovely in the strong sun, still puzzles me why such charts are frowned upon in April but not January, its not Summer yet then i might understand it, people still want southerlies in October.

Think it's the fact we've been stuck in temperatures of 8-12c for 6 months now. We've had an extended autumn and no winter. Why would they be frowned upon in January, that would bring snow to many places.

[Geordiesnow]

Nice too see the "warmth" being upgraded somewhat, its quite uncertain just how much warm air will head in but as Captain Shortwave says, 20C potentially can't be ruled out.

Would not mind seeing a more sustained Northerly occurring but I'm always sceptical when the ECM shows OTT blocking although the pattern of high pressure to the West does look the most likely set up at the moment.

[knocker]

Oh the joys of the GFS

Severe frost, shortwave incoming and significant snowfalls.

Health warning. Not to be taken too seriously

[knocker]

No great change with the GEFS 7-12

Be afraid, be very afraid.

Edited April 16, 2016 by knocker

[Peejayem]

"Lovely"....are you for real?

 

[Cloud 10]

9 hours ago, Greenland1080 said:

Lovely cold northerly next weekend .....Still a chance of seeing falling snow in elevated favoured locations.......GFS shows it chilly all the way out to 1st May

 

 

Nice flow directly from the pole there Mr 1080.

 

Looks like a spring roller-coaster ride in the next 10 days or so,with some  pleasant looking weather midweek thanks to high pressure over the UK which then gets yanked into the mid-Atlantic/Southern Greenland potentially allowing the Arctic floodgates to open.

 

Manchester ensembles show it well.

 

Edited April 16, 2016 by Cloud 10

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Greenland1080 said:

Lovely cold northerly next weekend .....Still a chance of seeing falling snow in elevated favoured locations.......GFS shows it chilly all the way out to 1st May

 

not another northerly, thought it was getting warmer