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Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
1 hour ago, Eugene said:

GFS 12Z showing maxs (4C to 6C) widely on Saturday, colder than most max's last December, wouldn't be surprised to see some wintriness on higher ground.

Quite a turn around from the warmth it was showing just a few days ago.

Its also quite a turn around from this week last year when we were getting ready for that taste of summer with 26C hitting the south

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Posted
  • Location: Chester-le-street,Co.Durham
  • Location: Chester-le-street,Co.Durham
1 hour ago, Eugene said:

GFS 12Z showing maxs (4C to 6C) widely on Saturday, colder than most max's last December, wouldn't be surprised to see some wintriness on higher ground.

Quite a turn around from the warmth it was showing just a few days ago.

Temperatures here in single figures all week, very wet and horrible today. Colder than most winter days. The days are longer but weather and temperature wise its just mid winter, again.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

It looks like quite a notable dose of Arctic air is expected to come south at the end of the week.

The fax for Friday midday and the NH view from the GFS showing the cold front already over Scotland marking the leading edge of some quite cold air heading south to all areas by the weekend between a Scandinavian trough and  Atlantic ridging

fax72s.gifgfsnh-0-72.png

Snowfall looks quite likely in showers as that front heads south,particularly higher up so quite a downturn in temperatures for some of us down south after the mid teens of today.Indeed GFS for Saturday shows uppers as low as -8c with low single figures maximums quite widely

viewimage (5).png        gfs-9-96 (1).png

so a brief return to Winter for a short while before pressure starts to rise from the west and the cold upper trough is pushed away eastwards.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
20 hours ago, save the penguins said:

The weekend northerly is looking more potent and widespread on the 18z. Still time for change of course.

gfs-1-108.png

 

Widespread wintry showers on Saturday if GFS verifies,with 850's of -6/-7 and sub-zero dewpoints,followed by a frosty Sunday morning.

 

Spring appears to be on hold for the forseeable future.

 

 

 

96-7UK.GIF96-101UK.GIF

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Plenty of settled weather starting to develop next week but temps nothing special though pleasant enough if we have some sunshine and no nagging breeze some cold nights likely as well with some frosts possible

Recm1202.gifRecm1442.gifRecm1682.gif

Recm1922.gifRecm2162.gifRecm2402.gif

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Both GFS and ECM showing a chilly outlook as we end the week, the trough to the SW becoming eroded by a pronounced scandi trough feature from the north, the end result strong heights building to our north west - the driving force are developing heights over the arctic and the last throws of the polar vortex breaking up into pieces with cold air spilling out into the mid lattitudes all a result of the lag effect of the March SSW.

Arctic maritime air set to plunge southwards Friday/Saturday, frosty nights look likely in the north and some wintry showers, with further spring snowfall over higher ground. 

Into next week - heights forecast to ridge in from the NW which should see temps return closer to average but cold nights. Longer term.. signal for a very pronounced arctic plunge. 

The tendency for strong El Nino winters to be followed by notable cold spell in April could most likely occur again..

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The NOAA and ecm and GEFS are all in the same ball perk tonight with the HP to the NW of the UK and a Scandinavian trough. As previous stated the key to the weather and temps is the orientation of the surface high. At the moment it looks like at the beginning of the week it will be quite adjacent to the UK which would produce winds from an easterly quadrant and be relatively warm but thereafter it gradually drifts west backing winds to a more northerly direction and thus dropping the temps somewhat. But generally remaining dry.

610day.03.gifecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.png

In the later period the HP retrogresses further and the trough to the east becomes more influential so the upper flow backs further to the NW bringing some more unsettled conditions and the temps still depressed below average.

814day.03.gifgefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Trying to sort the weather for the weekend by consulting the GFS and the fax charts leaves one with a slight problem. They disagree on the analysis for Saturday. I'll stick with the fax.

It's basically about timing. The GFS runs the shallow low across southern England Friday evening and away to the east by Saturday and with the HP approaching from the west has the UK in a dry cool northerly by Saturday. Not so the fax with the low still over Norwich and the front running down the western UK some heavy showers can be expected. Both agree on a cold dry Sunday.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_15.pngPPVM89.gifgfs_ptype_slp_eur2_19.png

PPVO89.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY APR 13TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION There remains little change in the synopses across the UK today with Low pressure to the SW feeding warm Southerly air across the South while a colder east or NE flow persisting across the North separated by an occluded front. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The upper air temperatures are now in the range of 3000ft-5000ft across the UK currently with the pattern of the lowest uppers of 3000ft across the North and the warmest uppers of 5000ft + remaining across the South

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Slowly becoming drier and brighter from the weekend but with the risk of cool nights and some frost next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream will continue to be static in an omega trough form just to the West of the UK in association with low pressure to the SW. This pattern remains in situ for some time yet before the flow splits with a finger flowing East to the North but with the main cyclonic flow still at some point to the South of the UK with any simplification in this pattern occurring right at the end of the run when the Northern flow is shown to be blowing South across the UK with the main flow still well South near Africa. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a continuation of the showery and eventually cooler theme by the weekend as colder winds come South behind Low pressure just prior to the weekend. Then a ridge moves into the UK from the West with a fine but chilly spell by night with some frosts before cool and changeable cyclonic conditions return quite quickly from the South next week with rain or showers and some hill snow possible at times, this chiefly over Northern high ground while in the second week winds maintain a Northerly element as well as keeping the risk of night frosts alive where skies stay clear with a sun and shower mix by day, these especially in the East.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run is similar to the operational in theme with cool winds from the North or NE the main feature of the period. A drier phase at the weekend is soon displaced by Low pressure from the SW next week before this is superseded by another surge of cold air from the NE with the heady April mix of sunshine and on high ground wintry showers with the cool and changeable conditions under pressure systems from the North maintained out to the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today offer no clues as to the pattern we are likely to lie under in two weeks time as there are equally sized clusters around Low or High pressure being influential across the UK at that time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a better prospect at least for the South following the exit east of Low pressure out of Southern Britain at the weekend. Until then a sunshine and shower mix in quite warm temperatures in the South while the North has a cloudier and cooler spell with some rain. Then all areas become cooler at the weekend with the weather settling down if rather cool wit the risk of frost at night returning. Then the North might become a bit more showery early next week under Low pressure zones near Norway.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate only slow changes in the next 3-4 days before Low pressure to the SW finally moves away East over the weekend with a ridge following and although cool out of the sun and definitely by night when some frost is possible

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today is very much more High pressure based from the weekend as the current showery Low pressure finally moves away and is replaced by High pressure, not ideally positioned for the UK with the centre often to the West and allowing a rather cold Northerly drift to be maintained and certainly allowing the risk of frost to be a very real one.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today is not so good and while it does fill the current showery Low pressure up at the weekend any ridging from the Atlantic that the other models show is muted with shallow Low pressure still close enough by to permit some showers at times, again in rather cool air sourced originally from the North or North-east.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today also shows High pressure governing the weather across the UK from the end of the weekend as the current showery trough across the South finally loses the battle from Sunday. The weather will become dry but with the High pressure always to the West and the NW eventually things never look likely to be very warm after the next few days. There could be some showers at times again later in the East wintry on the highest hills and more importantly whilst dry and settled for most other areas frosts could become a major problem for gardeners and growers should synopses develop in this way.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night is leaning more towards a cool Northerly the likely option for the UK in 10 days time with High pressure anchored out to the West and Low pressure towards Scandinavia

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is a more definitive agreement shown between the models this morning of High pressure becoming much more dominant across the UK next week, positioned to the West and ensuring cooler air for many.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.7 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts and GFS at 85.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.9 pts to 58.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.7 pts to 38.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS There are better signs today that the weather could become more settled as we move out of the weekend and into next week. In the meantime the generally rather warm and showery weather in the South and cloudy damp conditions over the North continues for several more days with Friday looking potentially quite wet for some. Then as a cool northerly envelops the UK behind the Low pressure will be rising from the West with dry and fine weather increasingly likely. However, with cold air across the UK sourced from the North and the main High centre staying to the West it always look like chilly with no doubt some frosts at night where winds are light and skies stay clear. This more settled pattern is shown to be relatively short-lived from some models with deteriorations shown either from the South or North so there is a lot of doubt on any particular outcome at this stage. The one thing of note is that there looks likely to be a lot of High pressure at Northern latitudes next week and this is not necessarily good news in regard to temperatures as the door remains ajar to repeated cold pools to be pulled down over the UK in association with High pressure well north in the Atlantic. However, if High pressure can settle towards Scandinavia we are getting to the point in the year where this could start to feed warmer air up from SE Europe over the UK but this is I'm afraid not shown at the moment with the bias much more on a rather chilly period with a lot of dry and bright days but with some very unwelcome frosts in places looking inevitable and some showers at times with even a little wintriness on Northern hills at times.    

Next Update Thursday April 14th 2016 from 09:00

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Finer details need ironing out - as discussed by the beeb last night. We could draw some slightly milder air out of the continent early-mid next week, but after that there is good general agreement in the high retreating out towards the NW, with a scandi trough in tandem. Net result for us will be winds of some form of northerly quadrant, with days feeling nice in the sun (if a little cool), and some night time frosts.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Morning all :)

Looking into next week:- ECM 00Z at T+192:

ECM1-192.GIF?13-12

GEM:

gem-0-192.png?00

GFS:

gfs-0-192.png?0

Not a done deal by any stretch in the medium term. There are really two HP cells - ECM and GEM have the second one already in place to the west (though GEM again is less keen on the Greenland heights) while GFS still has the first cell in place (though that's not a good chart for the south).and the second cell just arriving.

GFS FI iis uninspiring again this morning and the end of April isn't looking too clever for those wanting warmth and sunshine but that's an eternity away and it will no doubt change.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.
1 hour ago, stodge said:

Morning all :)

Looking into next week:- ECM 00Z at T+192:

ECM1-192.GIF?13-12

GEM:

gem-0-192.png?00

GFS:

gfs-0-192.png?0

Not a done deal by any stretch in the medium term. There are really two HP cells - ECM and GEM have the second one already in place to the west (though GEM again is less keen on the Greenland heights) while GFS still has the first cell in place (though that's not a good chart for the south).and the second cell just arriving.

GFS FI iis uninspiring again this morning and the end of April isn't looking too clever for those wanting warmth and sunshine but that's an eternity away and it will no doubt change.

 

Its pretty good from where I am sitting, lots to look forward to, if you are a farmer!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm 6-10  anomaly this morning has ridging mid Atlantic and trough Scandinavia ergo a cool NW flow.

The story within this however is HP to the west nudging in Sunday and by Monday this establishes a cool NW flow. This is more or less maintained until Friday but all the time the two systems (the HP and trough) have been edging west and by the end of the period the trough is more influential and the upper wind has veered into a more northerly quadrant with a long fetch from the Arctic and thus becoming increasingly cooler.

This cold cold northerly is maintained for two or three days with 850mb temps 5-6C below average until around the 27th when the wind backs westerly although temps still remain below average.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I think most people are familiar with the thinking for the ten day period so I'll skip the spiel this evening. Just to note that evening's GEFs is not in agreement last night's eps and doesn't push the Scandinavian trough far enough west to generate the very cold northerly fetch and retains the NW flow with the HP ridging to the west. Thus this would avoid temps way below average keep around it or a little below.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_55.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all :)

A quick look at where we might be in the medium term:

GFS 12Z OP at T+240:

gfs-0-240.png?12

ECM at the same time:

ECM1-240.GIF

GEM:

gem-0-240.png?12

To be honest, all variations on the same theme. HP to the West and North-West. LP to the East. Nothing terribly inspiring - cool and dry in the west. Rain and showers further east and temperaures well down.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The NOAA 8-14 is not dissimilar to the EPS 1o-15 regarding the HP ridging into Greenland but it is regarding the trough to the east, The EPS is still maintaining a deep upper low centred over Norway giving a strong 500mb flow from the NNW over the UK. Looking at the 850mb chart for mid of that range finds a low southern Norway with strong northerly streamlines and temps 5c below average for the UK, France and Germany. As previously stated the GEFs is not making anywhere near as much of trough to the east and is nearer the NOAA solution, albeit with the ridging a little further east, thus not looking at the very cold solution. Because of this variation the jury remains out on the evolution.

814day.03.gifgefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
45 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all :)

A quick look at where we might be in the medium term:

GFS 12Z OP at T+240:

gfs-0-240.png?12

ECM at the same time:

ECM1-240.GIF

GEM:

gem-0-240.png?12

To be honest, all variations on the same theme. HP to the West and North-West. LP to the East. Nothing terribly inspiring - cool and dry in the west. Rain and showers further east and temperaures well down.

Perhaps turning increasingly wintry at elevation on that ECM chart....some decently cold uppers (for late April) to tap into there

ECM0-240.GIF?13-0

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Looking at the GFS, the fax and the latest METO update is, to put it mildly, a tad confusing. Either the METO are wrong or the GFS run is a dog's breakfast. I'm inclined to the latter.

Anyway we can agree that the HP does indeed edge in from the west by Saturday so a dry northerly regime sets in although a weak trough does traverse the country tracking south. Temps distinctly on the cool side over the weekend with overnight frost and remaining a little below average for the week unless you are tempted to take the GFS at face value. That is track the HP that starts off to the west SE quite quickly and by midweek introduce low pressure from the west. Await the ecm with some interest.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_11.pngPPVL89.gifPPVO89.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_26.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_35.png

EDIT

A quick look at the GEFS and one can see where the GFS is coming from. Ridging the mid European HP NW over the UK.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Looks like it could potentially turn warm (ish) in the south for 2-3 days in the latter half of next week. All models show a short term draw of air from the near continent from Wednesday-some time Friday, before things turn cold as everything backs west and turns the winds to a northerly direction. Not much rain around either way. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY APR 14TH 2016.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure down to the SW of the UK will begin to move NE towards the English Channel tonight accompanied by an occluded front which will move North over Southern England later. Another front will move South over Scotland tonight with very much colder air moving South behind it towards England and Wales over the weekend. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The upper air temperatures are now in the range of 3000ft-5000ft across the UK currently with the pattern of the lowest uppers of 3000ft across the North lowering further to under 2000ft in a few days time and these very low uppers moving down across all of the UK over the weekend with snowfall a risk for a time over higher ground even in the South.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming drier and brighter from the weekend but with the risk of cool nights and some frost for a time next week. Perhaps more showers again later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream pattern will slowly change over the coming days as the steep trough in the flow weakening and simplifying as the main arm of the flow is pulled further South with the UK lying in a much slacker North to South drift for a time. Then later next week it looks like the trough could realign across the UK as Low pressure to the South moves back towards the South of the UK for a time. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the current showery flow across the South with low pressure to the SW give way over the weekend to colder High pressure feeding in from the NW. This then sinks down across the South and away to the SE next week as Low pressure and showery conditions return later. However, changeable is a good term to use because High pressure is shown to return across the UK later and this time it could be rather warmer with light winds from the SE and some pleasant Spring weather towards the end of the period.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run is somewhat different in the way of maintaining the next week unsettled phase a little longer spliced by higher pressure later this weekend especially in the South whereas later in the run the theme towards warmer and drier conditions again across the South in particular is brought about by rising pressure over nearby Europe and winds backing towards a warm Southerly at the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today still show a real mixed bag of options with the biggest share of the pack keeping Low pressure in control either just to the East or SE of the UK. in balance though there is some High pressure shown too with a 20% group in contrast putting High pressure close to the SE so confidence in long term predictions remain low.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure developing across the UK late in the weekend and start to next week following the expulsion of Low pressure away from the East of the UK on Saturday. This will bring fine and chilly weather with frost at night for a while before warmer SE winds develop in response to High pressure moving away to the East and possibly spelling a return to more showery conditions again from the SW by midweek next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the transition from unsettled and showery weather to cooler and High pressure based conditions later in the weekend and start to next week. Some weak troughs across the North early next week could cloud things over there with some light rain at times.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today shows High pressure building across the South of the UK later in the weekend with a weak westerly flow for a time across the North. The current showery theme will dissolve over the weekend with cool and fair conditions. Then next week High pressure migrates North and showery weather could return from Iberia across the South and later east too as High pressure finally moves out into the Atlantic and setup another cool and showery flow across the South and East with the best weather then in the North and west while staying chilly everywhere.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the same build of pressure at the weekend slowly giving away again by the middle of next week from the South as showery Low pressure from both the South and North regain control of the weather over the UK by this time next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today looks a bit like GEM as it jostles High pressure around the UK over the latter half of the weekend and start to next week before Low pressure from the South returns warmer but showery air north across Britain midweek leading on to High pressure drawn out into the Atlantic later with a chilly and showery NE flow developing then across the South and East while dry but cool conditions with frost at night looks possible still across the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night continues the theme of High pressure likely over the Atlantic in 10 days time with Low pressure to the east and NE meaning a cool Northerly flow likely over the UK with some showers by day and frost by night

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is a more definitive agreement shown between the models this morning of High pressure becoming much more dominant across the UK next week, eventually positioning to the West and ensuring cooler air for many following a somewhat warmer phase midweek next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.9 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts and GFS at 85.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.9 pts to 59.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 42.4 pts to 38.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The models seem to be getting a good handle on the course of events over the next 4- 5 days across the UK although the longer term outlook still looks a bit mixed between the different models. In the short term there looks like a change to cooler but drier weather across the South and I know many have had a very pleasant couple of days others have seen some very heavy showers and these showers will if anything become more numerous and widespread in the coming days before colder and clearer air spreads down from the North over the weekend as the Low pressure that's been down to the SW finally exits east into Europe. The air will be very chilly for mid April and frosts at night under clearing skies will be a big feature early next week in the South whereas the North might turn more cloudy with a little rain as troughs brush East to the North. Thereafter it's all about how the High pressure responsible for the better conditions in the South moves North and allows a period of warmer SE winds ahead of a return to heavy showers later next week as Low pressure finds it's way North from Spain. The general theme then is for the possible return of colder NE winds as there is a lot of support for High pressure to become anchored out to the West of the UK with cool showery winds from Low pressure near the SE to affect Southern and Eastern areas at least but we are talking a long way out by then and confidence on any one evolution from late next week verifying comes with lower than usual confidence. What is more certain is that frosts at night remain a big risk at times over the coming few weeks with any Northerly influence escalating the risk further so gardeners beware. For the rest of us the next few weeks will probably end up having seen a lot of dry and fair weather for many just punctuated by April showers but if I had to be picky I would prefer to see rather more of a Southerly influence to the air-flows across the UK rather than the North especially given we are edging towards May.    

Next Update Friday April 15th 2016 from 09:00 

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