Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[Man With Beard]

Looking at the D10 situation, the mean charts are quite different this morning. ECM clearly dominated by a decent trough:

More days will be unsettled than not. However, on a W / SWly feed, any dry days might feel quite warm considering it is April - with the trough possibly centred well to our west, I'd expected one or two decent days in a 5 day period (away from W / NW coastal regions)

GFS mean is rather interesting:

Here, we see more of a tendency for a cut-off Iberian low to develop (well backed-up in the ensemble members). This could go a number of ways. Atlantic lows could still get in over the top. Or, height rises to the north could herald an easterly (ala the 00Z op run). And a slight possibility, only slight but it's there, of a backdoor south-easterly blast from the med - like this:

Looks a bit far-fetched but it wasn't alone in the ensemble suite. Don't get your hopes up though.

[TomDav]

Greenland / Polar block on GFS 12z

 

[knocker]

The GEFs anomalies tonight on the 31st continue with the strong amplification upstream with the N. Pacific blocking and the cold trough over North America. The trough over the UK has gone but another trough ejected from N. America is travelling east across the Atlantic. So after a brief interlude we are back in the mire again  with a WSW flow bringing some more periods of wet and wind weather mainly to the west and north.

This trough stops just to west of the UK and then slips south to be south west of the UK by the 4th April whilst at the same time building heights over Scandinavia. This backs the flow SWS with the surface low probably to the SW of Cornwall. What weather this bring is open to interpretation and not worth worrying too much about at this stage.

It would certainly perk the temps up though.

Edited March 22, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm is very similar to the GEFs including the EPS on the 4th.

[knocker]

I like this

 

[Paul]

Yep, much like Nick was blogging about recently

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=7227;sess=

Our blocking high is a thing of the past very soon though unfortunately!

 

Back to things like rain totals in the coming days..

  

 

[knocker]

The GEFS anomalies this morning continue with the trough just to the west by early April with a suggestion of Scandinavian height rises. Thus really from now until then a continuation of wet and windy periods interspersed with drier interludes and temps varying the average. But perhaps the most significant development may be the height rises over Greenland. Watch this space.

Edited March 23, 2016 by knocker

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAR 23RD 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge across Southern Britain will collapse later today as troughs of Low pressure cross the UK from the West tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain in the range of 5000-7000ft across the UK before falling towards 4000ft across Northern and western Britain behind the passage of the cold front tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled and often windy with spells of rain at times for all in temperatures closer to average.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream will strengthen in the coming days with the flow moving NE across the UK by the weekend. This flow then sinks South of the UK over the coming week before moving somewhat further North across Southern Britain in the second week with more of an undulating flow setting up late on in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure becoming in control of the UK weather over the next few weeks. In the first week Low pressure will lie in a position close to the UK with showery spells with longer spells of rain and strong winds too. Then after a brighter and drier interlude towards the middle of next week under a transient ridge Low pressure is shown to return with the heaviest rain from this likely over the North and west with temperatures close to average maintained throughout.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a similar theme to the Operational Run with low pressure in control throughout. However, having said that the end of the period is shown to see colder air slip down from the North as pressure rises very High over Greenland introducing the chance of some wintry showers and sharp Spring frosts in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show a very mixed pattern again with Low pressure in close proximity to the UK from many members with a 40% majority indicating a centre of this to the East and SE of the UK which would mean cool and unsettled weather the more likely pattern across the UK then.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an unsettled period coming up as Low pressure to the NW extends it's influence to all parts of the UK by the weekend with spells of rain or heavy showers for all with some brief drier and brighter spells too in temperatures near to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show unsettled and windy conditions across the UK starting from tomorrow. then through the weekend further wet and windy conditions will spread east over all areas on Saturday with strong and blustery SW winds for many.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning takes a course towards very unsettled conditions with rain and showers for all with gales too at times. This weather pattern remains in place throughout the rest of the period with temperatures close to average at sustained dry weather very much at a premium.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also indicates a very unsettled spell of weather developing across the UK over the Easter weekend and persisting through the early and mid parts of next week ending with a deep and vigorous Low pressure lying across the South of the UK with rain and showers for all through the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning continues to look very unsettled with Low pressure maintaining control with rain and showers for all areas on each day. A short brighter period is hinted at late next week but Low pressure then to the NW maintains influence across most areas to end the period in near to average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart today has offered no change to what has been shown for days now with Low pressure to the NW of the UK with a trough across the UK and a Jet Stream too far South to be ideal for the UK in delivering anything other than spells of rain and showers at times in temperatures close to or just a little below average for early April.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains universal support for the UK to enter a very unsettled spell for all areas over and beyond the Easter weekend.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.1 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 86.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.9 pts to 58.8 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 45.2 pts to 44.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The message from the models this morning is as underlined as ever in bringing unsettled and windy conditions across the UK tomorrow and following a brief break on Good Friday the weather is shown by all models to go downhill rapidly on Saturday leading into a sustained spell of wet and windy weather over the UK for the coming week or two. There is odd intervals when drier and brighter conditions may be obtained but all in all the prospects remain Low pressure based with strong winds from the SW likely at times too. Temperatures will probably be close to average but the strong winds at times will make it feel distinctly cool especially when it is raining. Longer term there seems little optimism for anything other than maintained unsettled conditions as the Jet Stream stays along way South and spells of rain and showers keep piling in from the Atlantic. GFS offers the only resistance to this as it shows a lot of High pressure building at Northern latitudes with a colder regime later but if this evolved it could well become drier too with the risks of frosts at night greatly increased. The unfortunate part is that we are now entering April soon and many would be expecting a solid drift into sunshine and warmth this morning to replace the dismal cloudy and benign Winter just passed but I'm afraid it's more of the same over the coming few weeks which will make the time of year seem no different to what's gone but on the plus side if the sun does come out between the showers we will be reassured that better conditions may just be around the corner astronomically at least.

Next Update Thursday March 24th 2016 from 09:00

[knocker]

Need to keep an eye on Easter Monday which looks as if it could be a bit hairy with a possibility of severe gales in the south

Edited March 23, 2016 by knocker

[Tim Bland]

Hello Greenland High! Where have you been for the last 4 months ! ....

 

[Eugene]

18 hours ago, Paul said:

Yep, much like Nick was blogging about recently

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=7227;sess=

Our blocking high is a thing of the past very soon though unfortunately!

 

Back to things like rain totals in the coming days..

  

 

 

All its brought for many is horrid stagnant dull days, another dull day today, it'll be nice to see the sun again between rain bands, alot more interesting for active weather fans too.

[andymusic]

gfs looking pretty darn cool/cold again on the 12z run northerly then an easterly towards the end of the month and into april

[dragon falls]

Hi guys got myself a snow shovel today in b.m for a pound .they are selling off bags of rock salt lol can see a below average spring 

[damianslaw]

A fair amount of consistency in the models today. The trend is for unsettled conditions for the foreseeable as we loose the influence of high pressure and see low pressure barrel in from the west becoming unstuck over the country as heights begin to build to the north - quite a cyclonic look about things with the jet on a pronounced southerly position.

As we end the month there is a signal of perhaps something drier resurfacing as heights to the north begin to influence things, but it would be a cool drier period.

This is the time of year when sudden flip flops between cold and warm can occur, I wouldn't be surprised to a shot of something much colder or warmer from north or south surface in quite a short space of time, catching the models behind  this likely due to the position of the jet and a fine line between being on the cold side and warm side of the trough - the hints are we will be on the colder side of the polar front jet.

[Timmytour]

5 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Hello Greenland High! Where have you been for the last 4 months ! ....

 

I think it's been there on the models in FI from time to time

It just hasn't been over Greenland in real life!!

[knocker]

MV had this to say about the GFS 11-15 op.

"I'd say the 12Z GFS op liked the idea of a -NAO in the 11-15d period. Probably a spurious run but with Strat... hmm"

Now the GEFS 10-15 anomaly doesn't exactly go along with that

The EPS 10-15 is not dissimilar to the GEFS but has a deeper trough just to the SW of the running down to Iberia. It continues in this vein and by day 15 has an area of low pressure to the south of the UK. One can speculate regarding height rises to the NW and low pressure to the south. This would produce a SE flow for the southern half of the UKwith temps perhaps a little below average.

Edited March 23, 2016 by knocker

[swilliam]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

MV had this to say about the GFS 11-15 op.

"I'd say the 12Z GFS op liked the idea of a -NAO in the 11-15d period. Probably a spurious run but with Strat... hmm"

Now the GEFS 10-15 anomaly doesn't exactly go along with that

The EPS 10-15 is not dissimilar to the GEFS but has a deeper trough just to the SW of the running down to Iberia. It continues in this vein and by day 15 has an area of low pressure to the south of the UK. One can speculate regarding height rises to the NW and low pressure to the south. This would produce a SE flow for the southern half of the UKwith temps perhaps a little below average.

HI Knocker,

 

I do not really understand why you say the GEFS anomaly does not go along with the Op. As far as I can see it shows anomalously high pressure over Greenland, low over the SE and S Atlantic (i.e to the SW of us) and v. low over NE US - which is what the Op shows?

 

Using the Meteociel view this is apparent.

 

 

It seems very likely that we will get the -ve NAO as backed up by the MetO 30 dayer.

 

 

 

[knocker]

6 hours ago, swilliam said:

HI Knocker,

 

I do not really understand why you say the GEFS anomaly does not go along with the Op. As far as I can see it shows anomalously high pressure over Greenland, low over the SE and S Atlantic (i.e to the SW of us) and v. low over NE US - which is what the Op shows?

 

Using the Meteociel view this is apparent.

 

 

It seems very likely that we will get the -ve NAO as backed up by the MetO 30 dayer.

 

 

Hi swilliam

Yes it does but not with the intensity and extent of the ops and it has a trough over the UK with weak area of negative heights to S/SW and ridging mid Atlantic.

The ops over egging the Greenland height rises and the negative LP to the S ?

Update edit.

This morning's GEFS 10-15 looks more into the last night's ops ball park ( last night's EPS 10-15 isn't buying the large positive height rises over Greenland) but this morning's ops is not singing the same song. Actually It's not clear what song it is singing.

Edited March 24, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

Still looking at a wet and potentially very windy Easter Monday according to this morning's GFS.

 

[Polar Maritime]

Some choppy seas for the Channel/South Coast for the Bank Holiday crossings.

Edited March 24, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

This morning's ecm is not hugely different to the GFS regarding Easter Monday.

[johnholmes]

8 hours ago, swilliam said:

HI Knocker,

 

I do not really understand why you say the GEFS anomaly does not go along with the Op. As far as I can see it shows anomalously high pressure over Greenland, low over the SE and S Atlantic (i.e to the SW of us) and v. low over NE US - which is what the Op shows?

 

Using the Meteociel view this is apparent.

 

 

 

It seems very likely that we will get the -ve NAO as backed up by the MetO 30 dayer.

 

 

 

Neither the NOAA 6-10 nor the EC-GFS versions support that GEFS one

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Of course you are showing a predicted chart for 7 April, the above are prior to this. If you look at the NOAA 8-14 it is something more like the GEFS for around that date. Interesting to see if that development starts to appear in the two anomaly sets I have quoted.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY MAR 24TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will move ESE across the UK today, clearing the East early tomorrow and then followed by a ridge of High pressure crossing East tomorrow

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will be in the range of 4000-6000ft asl with snow reserved for the summits of Scotland through today before all areas become mostly dry tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Unsettled and often windy with spells of rain at times for all in temperatures closer to average.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream will surge East to the South of the UK over the coming weekend and start to next week. then later the flow becomes more disorientated in both location and speed as an undulating pattern forms for a time before the flow reverts to an NE or East flow over Northern Britain towards the end of the two week period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the next week or so as very unsettled and often very windy as Low pressure becomes complex and widespread near the UK over the next week. Both Saturday and Easter Monday look very wet and potentially stormy on Monday while at other times it will be bright and showery with hail and thunder possible. Then towards the end of next week a drier spell begins with much more changeable weather in the second week with some dry days and others with a little rain at times especially in the west and South for a time and then in the North as a cold High pressure ridge slips South at some point through the second week. 

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a similar theme to the Operational Run with Low pressure well in control through Week 1 and only slowly losing it's grip in Week 2 with winds then switching more towards the SE and then East with most of the rain in the South and West in Week 2 with a cold Easterly flow developing then with dry conditions affecting the North and NE at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show a very unsettled pattern the most likely weather scenario in two weeks time with Low pressure well in control but with the positioning of this very unclear which could have major implications about how things feel at the surface with everything between mild SW winds and cold NE winds shown this morning.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an unsettled period coming up as Low pressure to the NW extends it's influence to all parts of the UK over the weekend with spells of rain or heavy showers for all with some brief drier and brighter spells too in temperatures near to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex Low pressure gaining total domination across the UK in the coming days lasting well into the middle of next week at least. All areas will be affected by troughs at times delivering some heavy rain, driven along by strong cyclonic winds.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM looks very disturbed this morning with Low pressure maintaining control on this run throughout the period of 10 days. Low pressure will be to the North or over the UK in the first week with spells of windy Westerly winds and rain or showers at times. Then a change to rather colder conditions look likely from the second weekend, still with rain at times and maybe turning to snow at times over the hills as winds become NE at least for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows Low pressure in control over the coming week filling slowly towards the end of next week but not enough to prevent a spell of wet and potentially very windy weather at times especially over Easter itself easing only gently towards the second weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning shows a typical early Spring setup this morning as March winds combine with April showers at times with some longer spells of rain thrown in for good measure, all because Low pressure dominates throughout mostly positioned up to the NW of the UK next week and indeed over the UK for a time at the Easter weekend with SW or cyclonic winds strong to gale force at times. there appears little change in the overall pattern at the end of the run so this suggests further rain and showers as we move into mid April.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart today remains locked as unsettled across the UK with Low pressure likely to lie quite close to the West of the UK with heavy April showers most likely with temperatures average but pleasant enough in the sunshine between the showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains universal support for the UK to enter a very unsettled spell for all areas over and beyond the Easter weekend.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 85.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.0 pts to 58.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.2 pts to 42.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  After 10 days or so of fine and benign conditions being prevalent across the UK the weather is on the turn from today as the Jet Stream strengthens and is carried South across Southern Europe over Easter. Low pressure on the cold side of the Jet flow will form some quite powerful Low pressure over the latter stages of the Easter weekend and start to next week near to the UK with the risk of heavy rain and showers along with severe gales a very real possibility although temperatures at the surface given a predominant SW flow will be respectable numerically. Then as we move out of Easter and through next week changes look likely to be slow with further rain and showers through the week with some drier and brighter weather in between. Later next week Low pressure may fill and realign in positions as some model shows pressure building to the North and NE with a shift of emphasis of rain towards the West and South as colder air to the NE might filter across the UK from the North or East. How this theme develops remains quite elusive at this stage but it has been a factor of many runs recently especially from GFS so will have to be watched with interest over the coming days. If it does evolve a chilly start to April with some wintry showers in places seems possible although at the moment ECM who look forward 10 days doesn't seem to support GFS's findings and maintain wet and Atlantic based winds and conditions under Low pressure to the NW. What no model shows again this morning is any fine, settled and Spring-like temperatures with unsettled at worst and changeable at best the weather pattern that persists throughout the next few weeks along with average or slightly below temperatures looking more likely.

NOTICE. Due to work commitments this is my last report until Tuesday March 29th Have a very happy Easter and keep dry.

Next Update Tuesday March 29th 2016 from 09:00

[knocker]

The ecm anomaly continues with the high amplification upstream and has a trough running SE from the Canadian vortex to the trough running south to Iberia situated just to the west of the UK. This portends a continuation of unsettled conditions with periods of wind and rain as systems pass traverse the UK from the west.

The EPS 10-15 has slightly more amplification in the eastern Atlantic/NW Europe than the GEFS of same time frame with the trough away down to the SW and heights building a tad over Scandinavia. Thus we are looking at an area of low pressure to the S/SW which could be interesting. What itdoesn't do, unlike the GEFS, is build heights significantly over Greenland although it does have quite a strong ridge in the western Atlantic, Could get a fairly slack SE flow out of this with temps around average.

 

[Nouska]

Mid-day Bank holiday Monday - not looking at all nice in the south. Still a bit of fine tuning in regard to placement (and possibly strength).

   ensemble mean