Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[knocker]

It's a fine line in these situations and this time of year to know if the cloud will burn off or not in particular areas. Down here the Sc did break for a while before reforming again. The forecast this morning did give the best chance of sunshine for the south and west to be in Wales.

[Faronstream]

1 hour ago, marksiwnc said:

Looks like a few surprises today weather wise

 Amazing sunny skies here and real warmth.  And you've guessed it met office shows cloudy all day. Shockingly crap computers 

You mean -25 Celsius and heavy frost?

[bobbydog]

1 hour ago, marksiwnc said:

Looks like a few surprises today weather wise

 Amazing sunny skies here and real warmth.  And you've guessed it met office shows cloudy all day. Shockingly crap computers 

just checked the satellite images and Anglesey has been under cloud cover pretty much all day. just a few miles from you. looks like you were lucky. hardly "shockingly crap" is it?....

[IDO]

Maybe no 12z tonight, delayed at least: https://t.co/cVIXTZcIpx

GEM at D10 suggests we are probably not missing much:

Edited March 20, 2016 by IDO

[Daniel*]

17 minutes ago, IDO said:

Maybe no 12z tonight, delayed at least: https://t.co/cVIXTZcIpx

FYI 

[John Badrick]

2 hours ago, marksiwnc said:

Looks like a few surprises today weather wise

 Amazing sunny skies here and real warmth.  And you've guessed it met office shows cloudy all day. Shockingly crap computers 

Bitter cold wkend here, absolutely freezing, probably one of the coldest couple of days wev'e had in a while. Met got it spot on for us

[knocker]

From WxBell

1 PM EDT Sunday 3/20: GFS 12z delayed by 2 hours due to NCEP EMC initialization problems. Other models will be late as well.

[knocker]

The pattern change this week is a given so it's really a matter of looking for future developments so a look at this morning's GEFs and last night's NOAA.

The GEFS anomaly for the 31st shows a very amplified pattern upstream and a trough just to the west of the UK running south to N> Africa. Thus a WSW air flow over the UK portending a continuation of unsettled weather with drier and quieter periods and temps varying around the average.

By the 5th April less amplification upstream, the UK trough a tad further west and heights building over Scandinavia. This will back the upper wind but still remaining unsettled but perhaps drier in the east and SE with temps generally picking up a little.

There are no major differences with NOAA (keeping in mind these are five day averages and not spot days) which keeps the amplification upstream and keeps the trough in the same position in relation to the UK for the fourteen day period.

[knocker]

Looking at the ecm you get the idea for the weekend. The front is lying across western Ireland.

[Frosty.]

The most interesting feature of the Gfs 00z op is an Arctic incursion into Scotland at the end of March and start of April with frosty nights and a risk of snow. In the meantime, the current benign spell looks like breaking down through midweek, especially Thursday which looks unsettled with rain in most areas but Good Friday looks fine for many before the Easter weekend becomes more unsettled and windier from the west but still with some dry and sunny spells. 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY MAR 21ST 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  A High pressure ridge lies across the UK today. Over the next couple of days it weakens and declines away South as a Westerly flow develops across the UK by midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain in the range of 5000-6000ft across the UK in the coming couple of days with no risk of snow anywhere in the UK through that period.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming more unsettled and breezy with rain at times for all in temperatures closer to average.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is quite weak currently. However the flow is strengthening across the other side of the Atlantic and this stronger surge will move across the Atlantic and the UK by the end of the week. Once here the flow backs Southerly and the UK lies in a trough in the flow for some while later in the weekend and next week as Low pressure lies close by to the UK. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a much more unsettled pattern developing for the UK as we move through the latter stages of this week as the current High pressure ridge collapses away South and a strengthening West or SW flow develops. Some wet and windy spells will then occur but with some drier and brighter spells in between with temperatures overall close to the seasonal normal. Later on in the second week the weather is shown to remain changeable for many with some chillier air lurking to the North and NE of the UK. 

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the operational with the fine period coming to an end soon after midweek as a trough swings East across the UK. This is then followed by a more mobile SW or South flow across the UK with rain and wind at times for all areas mixed with some shorter, drier and brighter spells with temperatures well up to the seasonal average before a shift towards colder weather takes shape towards the end of the second week as Low pressure takes a more Southerly track and cold High pressure builds to the North leading us into a cold and showery start to April in Easterly winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today continue to project Low pressure in control of the UK weather, most likely positioned just to the West or NW with just a 20% pack reversing this theme having Low pressure to the South similar to that of the Control Run.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning continues to project a major pattern change in the weather towards the second half of this week, deteriorating further through Easter. So a few more days of fine and benign conditions are shown before troughs cross West to East over the UK towards Easter in turn followed by a dip into deeply unsettled conditions later in the holiday weekend with heavy rain or showers at times for all in close to average temperatures at best.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data well today illustrating the decline of a High pressure ridge over the coming days towards a theme of a trough moving across the UK from the West on Thursday with some rain for all for a time.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning looks very unsettled from the end of the month with Westerly winds and rain at times the likely scenario under Low pressure lying close by to the North. It won't be raining all the time and some brighter spells will occur between the rain-bands in temperatures close to average but feeling cool at times in the strength of the wind.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also indicates a change to unsettled and windy weather as we move through the Easter period following an entrance into this more unsettled regime by a weakening cold front bringing the first rain for many on Thursday. Low pressure to the NW over Easter maintains the risk of rain at times for all areas with some brighter intervals at times too in often windy conditions in temperatures close to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning maintains it's theme of a dip into a deeply unsettled spells over the Easter weekend and through next week. Over the next few days though benign conditions remain with the first rain for the South not expected until Thursday with a decent day for some on Good Friday. It's from Saturday on that the charts show a wetter and windier period with spells of rain followed by heavy showers for all in temperatures near to or a fraction below average with time

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart today has offered another chart showing a very unsettled spell of weather coming up with Low pressure well in control to the NW of the UK with spells of rain and SW winds across the UK towards the middle and end of the next working week. With SW winds predominating it is unlikely to be cold anywhere with temperatures more likely to be close to average offset by the conditions at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains universal support for the UK to enter a very unsettled spell for all areas over and beyond the Easter weekend

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 85.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.1 pts to 58.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 45.5 pts to 44.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  No change in the unity between the models in their underlying campaign to push the UK into an unsettled and windy spell of weather from the Easter weekend onward. There are still a few more days of benign conditions expected across the UK before changes begin to take shape in the form of a cold front crossing East on Thursday which will be the first appreciable rain for many for well over a week. Then Good Friday looks as though it maybe OK for many as a transient ridge moves East across the UK but hard on it's heels will be falling pressure as Low pressure over the North Atlantic deepens and moves in closer to the North of the UK. Westerly winds will then carry spells of rain and showers across the UK through the remainder of the long weekend and well into the second week. While temperatures will be close to average with wind and rain around it will feel chilly but OK in any brief brighter intervals, of which there will be some. Then as we look towards the outer reaches of this morning's output High pressure looks like it might be trying to build again to the North of the UK and if this develops further cold weather could be a theme of April with a traditional mix of sunshine and heavy, possibly wintry showers with more importantly frosts at night which is not good news of course for farmers and growers. That's all of course a long way off but it is a recurring theme between outputs at the moment so worthy of mention. So while nothing unusual for the time of year is shown this morning there is no evidence of Spring warmth of note either and it maybe we have to put up with standard Spring unsettled weather for quite a while before some more sedate and warm Spring weather arrives within the models hopefully quite soon. 

Next Update Tuesday March 22nd 2016 from 09:00

[mb018538]

Just sneaking in under the radar....Saturday afternoon is potentially looking very mild ahead of the rain band, with temps in the east up to 15/16c. I feel we deserve a mild day after the last 7-10 days of mainly leaden skies and a cold easterly!



 

[knocker]

Just to complete the cycle this morning's ecm on the 31st is similar to the GEFs although it does make a bit more of the Canadian trough.  By the 5th April again similar with the trough just to the west of the UK running south to N. Africa thus backing the upper flow SWS.

[Singularity]

 

Glancing at the UKMO 12z, I could see that turning out rougher than the GFS version of events - in which the secondary low moves slower and peaks before it arrives. I then figured there was a good chance GEM would explore the potential for a hard hitter - and it has not let me down in that respect!

Comparing +144 charts, we can see that GFS (left) is slower even than GEM (right), which itself is slower than UKMO (above-left).

 

 

Certainly a feature to keep an eye on what with the UK looking to be on the SE flank of a broad trough which is a good sign that the left exit of a jet streak (northern side of the easternmost extent of a section of particularly strong jet stream winds) is favourably positioned to allow a secondary low to deepen substantially as it arrives in our vicinity (thanks to upper level divergence associated with the left exit of the jet streak).

In holding the secondary low back, GFS keeps it from engaging with that potential, with little change in intensity as it heads our way from the middle of the North Atlantic.

There is, though, a strange tendency for models to show the 'engaging with potential' scenarios too readily, moving away from that scenario closer to the time. Perhaps it's a case of assuming that energy transfers will take place more efficiently than is actually achieved? Whatever it is, GFS is usually among the most keen, so the current stance is somewhat unusual. It will be interesting to see which way things actually turn out.

[Frosty.]

Nice end to the Gfs 12z op further south with temps nudging 70F. Yeah I will be accused of cherry picking desperation but it's the best part of the run!

[wishfulwinter]

20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nice end to the Gfs 12z op further south with temps nudging 70F. Yeah I will be accused of cherry picking desperation but it's the best part of the run!

Cherry pick away please frosty. After the most dire winter I can ever remember I'm longing to see more and more charts like this! Long may they continue until November!!

[Cloud 10]

Certainly not many cherries to be picked from the ECM 12z,and hopefully its bank holiday monday horror low pressure will be kicked into the long grass on future runs.

 

[mb018538]

I was going to say the same.....a potentially nasty low looking to slam into the UK for bank holiday according to ECM! GFS doesn't show anything like as bad, but I guess it will all depend on how the low gets scooped up by the jet stream nearer the time. One to keep a beady eye on!

[Frosty.]

37 minutes ago, wishfulwinter said:

Cherry pick away please frosty. After the most dire winter I can ever remember I'm longing to see more and more charts like this! Long may they continue until November!!

I couldn't agree more, bring on the spring warmth..I'm fed up with cold failure!

 

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

if  the  gfs   is  right  we  could  be  in  line for a very wet  spell  of  weather over  easter  and  in to  f1

 

 

[Guest]

MY LATEST REPORT UPDATED WITH MARCH 21ST 2016 INPUT

Please note that most of the charts that I refer to in this post are through “live” links which update periodically. So, if you are reading this a few hours after publication, the charts may already have updated. My comments relate to what the charts showed at the time of this posting.

Probably My Last Regular Report:

With the models finally agreeing on a more Atlantic zonal pattern over the next week or so, I feel that there is little point in my continuing my regular reports in their current format. Unless things change significantly during the next few days, this will be my last update of this type until next Winter. I will still report occasionally. If, during the next few weeks, there is a strong sign of an imminent (within T+96 range) Arctic outbreak or a flow sourced from around northern Siberia or north-west Russia then I’ll be back with an update on the source temperatures. 

I have updated all my regular indicators today but this is really for a general comparison against my past few updates and for use if/when I do another update. We do seem to have missed out – the same story as has been the case all Winter. The source temperatures in our part of the Arctic have fallen to their lowest levels for over a year. If we had managed a northerly coming from the high Arctic this week, it would have been colder than any of the brief ones we saw during the Winter (eg: compared to the January rather cold spell). So, the right source temperatures but the wrong synoptics, rather than the other way around!

I am not just a coldie. I also enjoy all unusual synoptic patterns and weather extremes. So, I may produce an occasional post during the summer months if I feel I can add something from a slightly different perspective. I will re-join the chase for colder patterns towards next Winter. The early general indications are looking more encouraging for at least a somewhat colder 2016/17 Winter – after what we have just had, that would not be at all difficult!  We seem set for La Nina conditions, an easterly phase QBO, lower solar activity and certain other influences. I shall read with interest during the summer just how these influences might interact. I believe some colder conditions might be favoured but with significantly lower chances of any mid-Winter sudden stratospheric warming. If we cannot have a severe winter I would settle for several significant (proper) cold spells.

Dr Judah Cohen’s Latest Arctic Oscillation Report:

Judah Cohen has just updated his weekly AO report. Here is the link:

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

I now copy his “Summary” and “Impacts” directly from his report below (but you will need to use the link above if you wish to view all his charts and diagrams):

….”Summary

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently neutral but will trend positive this week before reversing and trending negative next week. 

The positive AO trend is reflective of pressure/geopotential height falls across the Eurasian side of the Arctic while pressure/geopotential height anomalies remain positive across the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic sector.

The negative AO trend in week two is in response to pressure/geopotential heights building once again across the Arctic.

The alternating positive and negative tropospheric AO trends are in response to the negative stratospheric AO/weak polar vortex (PV) “dripping” down from the stratosphere to the troposphere.

The coldest temperature anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere are currently located under the lobes of the PV with one piece over Western Asia/Eastern Europe and the other over eastern North America.

The ongoing PV disruption continues to favor seasonably cold temperatures across Northern Eurasia and Eastern North America into April.

Impacts

As I have discussed now for many weeks we have entered the mature phase of a troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere (T-S-T) coupling event.  This is actually the second and better developed such event of the winter.  And with the current event so close to the climatological timing of the “Final Warming,” where the PV disappears for the spring and summer months, this brings to conclusion troposphere-stratosphere coupling for the 2015/16 season.  Therefore, for the remainder of the late winter/early spring period, I expect the atmospheric circulation to be dominated by the record breaking PV split and strong negative stratospheric AO that occurred in early March and is still ongoing.

The same circulation anomalies associated with the PV split including positive geopotential height anomalies and positive temperature anomalies over the Arctic with negative geopotential height anomalies and negative temperature anomalies are expected to descend down into the troposphere.  The negative heights and cold temperatures in the troposphere tend to be across northern Eurasia and eastern North America, which are favored during negative AO episodes.   The negative AO and or warming of the polar cap heights (PCHs) may but often do not descend all at once but rather in pieces or what is referred to as “drips” resulting in alternating positive and negative AO periods for four to six weeks but during which the AO averages below zero or negative.

It is my own empirical observation where the PV goes often so does the cold air at the surface.  The PV is split into two pieces or lobes with one lobe located over northwest Asia/Eastern Europe and the other lobe located over eastern North America (see below Figure 9).   Currently the largest negative temperature departures are also located over Western Asia/Eastern Europe and eastern North America.  However with the AO trending positive this week the models predict warming temperatures for both regions.  However the trend is not predicted to last long as the AO trend reverses again next week and heads back toward negative values.  This should result in another cooling trend across northern Eurasia and eastern North America, the two regions favored to experience cold temperatures during negative AO periods.  However the models are more confident in a robust cooling trend across eastern North America.  The models predict that the largest positive geopotential height anomalies in the NH will be located once again over the eastern North Pacific/western North America.  This will force negative geopotential height anomalies downstream over eastern North America.  This pattern favors below normal temperatures first across Central and Eastern Canada and eventually across the Central and Eastern United States (US).  Based on model predictions the potential exists for a cold start to spring in the central and eastern North America for an extended period.

How much temperatures will cool across northern Eurasia starting next week is more uncertain and will likely mirror on the phase of the AO.  The more the AO trends negative the greater the probability that temperatures will average below normal across Siberia and Europe.  East Asia may continue their mild streak regardless as East Asia tends to be colder before a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) than after an SSW.

Recent and Very Near Term Conditions

Currently, the AO is neutral and is predicted to remain near neutral for the next few days before trending positive for the end of the week (Figure 1).  The current neutral AO is reflective of mixed geopotential height anomalies both across the high and mid-latitudes of the NH (Figure 2).”…..

My Brief Comments on Judah Cohen’s Latest Update:

I had already written most of my report prior to Judah Cohen’s update being published. It is interesting that Judah Cohen sticks very much to his recent predictions. I can see that there is a slight further delay to the surface impacts of the current SSW but he explains that this is underway with a gradual propogation. He still feels that the colder regions will continue to be Eurasia and Eastern North America. It seems that the extent of the colder conditions will be dictated by the HLB. He feels that the AO will turn negative by later next week. He expects the current warm up, that the models are indicating, to be brief and then reversed. He then predicts colder conditions to persist for much of April.

Judah does not say how cold it will get but does state that the more the AO trends negative the greater the cold. Given the season, I would imagine that this probably does not mean any periods of prolonged Wintriness but it might mean a few colder spells – my guess would be several Arctic incursions and perhaps a cold east-north-easterly. The models are not indicating this at all for the next 2 weeks, having steadily moved away from colder patterns during the last few days. The Met Office’s 30 day outlook does still suggest “average to a little below average temperatures for much of the first half of April" but nothing exceptional.

Unfortunately, if Judah is right now, this could mean a delay to any Spring warmth but with conditions not cold enough to produce much in the way of wintry weather. This would not satisfy coldies or warmies. Perhaps more frosts than average, which might not be good for farmers and growers. I will keep an eye on the AO index and if it does start to trend strongly negative, I will provide another update – perhaps next Monday when Judah’s next report will be out.

AO Ensemble Charts: 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

The AO index is currently more or less neutral and set to go positive again within 2 days. All 11 ensemble members stay positive until March 30th, when 2 members go negative. 4 members stay positive until the end of the forecast period on April 3rd but only 1 is still trending upwards by then. The other 6 members all trend down into negative territory by the same time. Overall, this reflects very little HLB for most of the next 10days, very much in line with what the main models are currently indicating. Then it looks like there will be an increasing tendency towards HLB as we move into early April. Interestingly, this coincides with the timing of Kyle MacRitchie’s predictions showing the MJO entering phase 7 at good amplitude (see below). So,there are several tentative indications of greater HLB that agree with Judah Cohen’s predictions. Just a chance that we might see a brief Arctic incursion but that would not be at all unusual in a typical Spring.

 MJO Ensemble charts:

Here are today's MJO ensemble charts for the big 4 and Kyle MacRitchie’s for March 21st. 

UKMO:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ukme.shtml

ECM:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml

NCEP/GEFS:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

JMA:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/jman.shtml

Kyle MacRitchie:  http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/

Recent and Predicted Changes:

UKMO:  Having shown signs of more life in recent days, the UKMO seem intent on killing off the MJO!  They move from phase 5 at reasonable amplitude into the circle of death during the next 3 to 4 days.

ECM: Currently at decent amplitude in phase 5 and into phase 6 on March 23rd. Then most ensemble members enter phase 7 on March 25th at much lower amplitude before entering the circle of death on March 26th. There is a wide spread within the COD with several members re-entering in phase 8. Just one member retains decent amplitude through phases 6, 7 and 8.

NCEP/GEFS: This is totally confused and they are performing a “U” turn!  They had the MJO yesterday progressed about 2/3rd of the way through phase 5 at fairly low amplitude and today they have moved it back to about 1/3rd halfway through phase 5 but at increased amplitude. Then they move it back almost to phase 4 before nosediving into the COD during the next 3 days. Then most of the ensemble member re-emerge into phase 8 or phase 1 around March 30th/ 31st at quite low amplitude.

JMA:  They have the MJO currently in phase 5 at quite low amplitude. Then almost all the ensemble members dive into the COD within 2 days and re-emerge in phase 1 around March 28th at low but increasing amplitude.

Kyle MacRitchie:  All 4 of his ensemble members show the MJO progressing through phase 3 today, into phase 4 on March 23rd, phase 5 on March 27th, phase 6 on March 31st, phase 7 on April 5th and into phase 8 by April 10th. All of this at high or very high amplitude. Finally, he shows the MJO set to enter phase 1 around April 20th but with sharply decreasing amplitude. From several expert analyses that I read (including Tamara’s excellent post on here last week) they felt that the MJO would normally retain good amplitude during this period (with seasonal, SSW and ENSO influences – I think).

Overall: Quite a mixed picture again. A pretty high degree of uncertainty from the big 4 and little broad agreement. There is a tendency to get the MJO back into phases 7, 8 or 1 by around the turn of the month but with very different routes taken to get there!

General Comment: Singularity felt that I should continue with Kyle MacRitchie’s predictions. I did not get feedback from any of the other experts on the validity of Kyle’s research. My impression is that his specialist research into the ENSO and other tropical influences and how they interact with the MJO may well have kept his modified predictions (taking account of those influences) ahead of the other models. He stuck with the MJO in good amplitude throughout the last 3 weeks when the other models repeatedly forecast reduced amplitude (often going into the circle of death) only to delay their timing or move more into line with Kyle’s predictions. This evolving science and analysis is way beyond my understanding but it strikes me that all the experts need to retain very open minds as to how they take account of strong external influences and how they adapt their models to these.

Current Arctic Regional Surface Temperatures:

GFS – Northern Hemisphere Current Temperatures:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=9&carte=1

The link to this chart updates 6 hourly with each GFS run. At the time of writing it is showing a chart for 1900 today (21st March***). As this is T0 to T6 hours, it should be pretty accurate. Here is a summary of the temperature reading that I have been following in the reports with the previous reading (from my last report) for March 18th in brackets alongside:

North Pole – around -28c (-28c to -36c).

Barents Sea/High Arctic – around -20c to -24c (-24c to -32c).

Scandinavia – south around 0c to -4c (-4c to -8c); north around -8c to -16c (-8c).

Northern Siberia - around -20c to -32c (unchanged).

North West Russia - around -12c to -20c (-16c to -32c).

North-east Europe – around -4c to -12c (-8c to -12c).

Overall - apart from northern Scandinavia, all the temperatures have trended slightly upwards during the last 3 days.

*** Please note:   At the time of posting this link it was showing 1900 on Monday, March 21st. I always try to show the 1900 charts for a consistent comparison. The charts are automatically updated 4 times a day, so the temperatures shown will be different to those I just mentioned above. We can follow the trends by looking at the latest data at any time from now on. It is vital to note the time of day to take account of daytime/night time variations. So for like for like comparisons, for example the 1900 charts for each day should be available to view from the 12z (T+6) updates which are published around 1600 or about 4 hours later. This also applies to some of the other charts I link to in this post.

Svalbard Daily “Maximum” Temperature Forecast for 10 Days:

Here are the links to the 3 Svalbard stations that I am monitoring.

Central Svalbard – Longyearbyen 28 m asl:   

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/forecast.pdf

March 22nd  -21c;   March 26th   -8c;    March 30th  -6c.

West Svalbard – Ny-Alesund:                                                            

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Ny-%C3%85lesund/forecast.pdf

March 22nd  -15c;   March 26th   -8c;    March 30th  -7c.

South Svalbard – Sveagruva:                                          

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Sveagruva/forecast.pdf

March 22nd  -27c;   March 26th  -12c;    March 30th  -8c.

The general trend is for the “maximum” temperatures (which fell from much higher levels over last few weeks when they often exceeded 0c), to bottom out today and tomorrow then to rise slowly during this week but still to stay well below zero in the foreseeable future.

These links will update automatically at frequent intervals throughout the day. They are the Norway met office’s predictions. We need to be aware that these are only a forecast that is subject to change and I am told that the Arctic surface temperature forecasts are not completely reliable even at short range. 

To put the above figures into context, here is a link to the main Longyearbyen site:  

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

This shows monthly means, and actual highest/lowest temperatures recorded during this winter and goes back further. Apart from a couple of days in December, Svalbard is now seeing “maximum” temperatures falling to well below average, for the first time since Winter 2014/15

Next Update:

I was going to say; “In this format – only if we get an unexpected pattern change with a northerly or cold easterly showing within 4 to 5 days days (and before mid-April) – otherwise around next November. Occasional ad hoc posts during the summer months”.

Now that I have seen Judah Cohen’s latest update, I think that I might go for one more report next week – probably around Monday, March 28th, to include Judah’s next update. This will be to track the changes predicted by Judah. The extent of the negative AO and associated HLB, the synoptics, what the models are predicting, any sign of the Eurasian colder pool developing further and what is reflected in my indicators for how cold the source regions are.

 

Edited March 21, 2016 by Guest
Check that all links are working okay + grammar, spelling corrections

[knocker]

Tonight's GEFs and ecm anomalies for the 31st are singing the same song with high amplification upstream with and extended trough running SE from N. Canada connecting to the trough running south to N. Africa from just west of the UK. So remaining unsettled with wet and windy period interspersed with some drier interludes. temps varying around average.

In the ext period the GEFS has a deep trough and some very cold air over the north of N. America with the other trough still extending SE towards the UK where that trough is a little further west. At the same time building heights over Scandinavia. Still unsettled but more so in the west and north with chances of drier conditions in the south. Temps around average of a little above.

The EPS on the 5th departs quite markedly from this scenario with much more amplification in the Atlantic. It has ridging in mid Atlantic and the upper trough SW of the UK whilst building heights over Scandinavia. This backs the flow SWS with the surface low just SW of Ireland so certainly warmer rain. But as there is much disagreement with this evolution a watching brief is advisable for now.

Edited March 21, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

A quick look at the means from the latest EC32 update.

On the 5th April it has the N. Pacific blocking and the cold trough eastern N. America, HP in the western Atlantic with a trough running south to N. Africa just to the west of the UK and some height rises Scandinavia. Ergo a general area of low pressure over NW Europe so some unsettled weather, in what form is open to debate, with a SW/S flow and temps a little above average.

By the 12th there is a weakening of the trough and the HP to the east but the Azores high is pushing north mid Atlantic, This tends to veer the upper flow to westerly although it is very weak. This portends a quieter period of weather with slack low pressure over Europe and HP to the south west. Temps around the norm.

This quiet theme would seem to persist to the 19th with perhaps high pressure becoming more dominant from the SW but I wouldn't bet the house on this but having said that it would appear that we are moving to a quieter and not unpleasant period as April progresses if not excessively warm.

Back to the here and now and no great surprise that Thursday and Saturday look pretty wet and windy which a theme that continues into next week although the GFS does build HP towards the end of next week but that's best left for another day.

Edited March 22, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

No big surprise but the ecm is not going along with GFS and continues the unsettled theme until the end of the run.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAR 22ND 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge lies across Southern UK today. Over the next couple of days it weakens and declines away South as a Westerly flow develops across the UK with troughs swinging East on Thursday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain in the range of 5000-7000ft across the UK in the coming couple of days with no risk of snow anywhere in the UK through that period.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming more unsettled and breezy with rain at times for all in temperatures closer to average.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will strengthen in the coming days with the flow moving NE across the UK by the weekend. This general theme of movement of the flow will be the main theme of the flow next week before the flow breaks up and becomes much more ill defined in both speed and location in the second week. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a much more unsettled pattern developing for the UK as we move through the latter stages of this week and over the Holiday weekend. So some useful rainfall will fall for many with unfortunate timing for the holiday weekend but with some drier spells too once troughs pass East. Then from later next week dry and fine weather looks like returning with temperatures on the decline again leading to a cold and potentially showery spell especially over England and Wales as Low pressure to the South and High pressure to the North sets up cold Easterly winds for many.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows changeable conditions developing from Thursday as troughs and then Low pressure move into the UK from off the Atlantic in time for the Holiday weekend. Then with this unsettled and sometimes windy theme lasting for a week or so the theme towards drier and colder air engulfing the UK again is shown although less prolific than with the Operational.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today have switched to a much more settled picture as High pressure takes up a more prominent role over the UK position unclear. Just 35% of Clusters indicate Low pressure in control today with rain at times in places.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a steady dip into much more unsettled weather after tomorrow as troughs move East on Thursday and more extensively from Easter Saturday with rain at times thereon with the UK shown to lie on the Eastern side of deep Low pressure just West of the UK with a Southerly flow for many early next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the slow decline into more changeable conditions across the UK as pressure steadily falls later this week and over the weekend with a succession of troughs delivering rain but with some brighter spells in between especially over Good Friday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning looks very unsettled from the end of this week as Low pressure across the Atlantic makes much more progress into the UK following some rain on a trough on Thursday. Next week looks distinctly unsettled as Low pressure is shown to sit over the top of the UK filling slowly but maintaining rain and showers across the UK for all of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also indicates a change to unsettled and windy weather as we move through the Easter period following an entrance into this more unsettled regime by a weakening cold front bringing the first rain for many on Thursday. Low pressure to the West or NW over Easter and beyond maintains the risk of rain at times for all areas with some brighter intervals at times too in often windy conditions in temperatures close to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning is looking distinctly unsettled once the shift towards these type of conditions arrive at the start of Saturday. following a decent day on Good Friday and a band of rain on Thursday. Low pressure then settles across or near the UK for all of next week with rain and showers expected for all at times with some notable strong winds on occasion too and temperatures close to the seasonal average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart today has offered another chart showing a very unsettled spell of weather coming up with Low pressure well in control to the NW of the UK with spells of rain and SW winds across the UK towards the middle and end of the next working week. With SW winds predominating it is unlikely to be cold anywhere with temperatures more likely to be close to average offset by the conditions at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains universal support for the UK to enter a very unsettled spell for all areas over and beyond the Easter weekend.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.1 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 86.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.9 pts to 58.8 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 45.2 pts to 44.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  A period of wet and windy weather is on course to reach the UK on Saturday and continue off and on for the rest of the period. In the shorter term we still have to remove the fine and benign weather conditions that the UK have been under for some time as the High responsible declines away SE and allows the winds to switch to a Westerly source with the first trough crossing East over the UK on Thursday. Good Friday doesn't look too bad as a transient ridge moves across before falling pressure brings a sustained period of wet and at times windy conditions lasting over the second half of Easter and the period thereafter too. Then while most outputs maintain the unsettled theme right out to the term of the runs with Low pressure maintained over or near the UK GFS has moved towards a spell of Northern blocking later in the period with winds switching Easterly with Low pressure to the South and cold and showery weather most likely should the weather take this route. However, this is just one option that might develop and it is just GFS that shows it and it maybe that the more unsettled period under UK based Low pressure might be more likely. So in summary a spell of wind and rain mixed with sunshine and showers is the theme of weather over the next few weeks with no real guaranteed settled and spring-like conditions on offer this morning.

Next Update Wednesday March 23rd 2016 from 09:00