Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[johnholmes]

Back to my usual 500mb inputs after 2 weeks away. They have seemed pretty consistent in giving good guidance for the vagaries of the UK weather, currently see below for the more disturbed pattern they are suggesting

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

some indication here of upper ridging still over the UK area at 6-10 but no sign by 8-14 and the 6-10 is at odds to some extent with the EC-GFS below which looks more like the 8-14 NOAA. Anyway becoming more unsettled with contour lines showing air originating from Canada so not especially mild/warm by any means.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Singularity]

@Gael_Force I am in the process of moving to another website as my skills got me hired for a paid role. Thanks for your interest in my work 

- - -

A pretty extreme series of events now showing up in the models for the 4-6 day period, and one that wasn't really anticipated by them until yesterday, even even then it wasn't looking as dramatic. Using the UKMO 12z as an example;

  

On the left, we have the day 4 chart, which shows an intense low affecting the likes of Newfoundland while there is a pool of very cold air on its western flank. meanwhile there is a compact low near Iceland, which - crucially - has trended much stronger over the past 48 hours.

The day 5 chart in the middle shows the cold air being drawn into the circulation of the larger storm, while the one near Iceland encourages the jet to track pretty much due east across the Atlantic. The stronger the low is, the stronger this forcing is - hence we have also seen the jet trending flatter. 
Without this effect, the large low would have elongated to the S or SE as the jet arced south, allowing a wedge of heights to hang on in the Iceland/Greenland area for at least a time. This we have seen the models play around with at times over the past two days, but with little consistency.

Now though, the tide really does seem to have turned away from such an outcome. With the jet flat and the low elongating east, the cold air is strung out across the North Atlantic, providing an environment in which the jet stream can really kick into gear. So it is that we end up with something like the UKMO day 6 chart. The fact that the lower strat. has a neat split by this time has little bearing; it's not a strong signal in terms of geopotential heights, so strong forcing from within the troposphere can override it with ease.

 

I have learnt a great deal from how this season has played out - among the biggest discoveries being the fact that you can have some epic warming of the stratosphere without a large change in geopotential heights. It was as the lack of such became apparent int he model output around mid-Feb that I began to lose any real conviction with respect to major cold spells in March, relegating it to a file named 'uncertain possibilities'.

[jethro]

Thicko question.......does this mean we can look forward to wet weather again?

[Swave Snow]

2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

@Gael_Force I am in the process of moving to another website as my skills got me hired for a paid role. Thanks for your interest in my work 

- - -

A pretty extreme series of events now showing up in the models for the 4-6 day period, and one that wasn't really anticipated by them until yesterday, even even then it wasn't looking as dramatic. Using the UKMO 12z as an example;

  

On the left, we have the day 4 chart, which shows an intense low affecting the likes of Newfoundland while there is a pool of very cold air on its western flank. meanwhile there is a compact low near Iceland, which - crucially - has trended much stronger over the past 48 hours.

The day 5 chart in the middle shows the cold air being drawn into the circulation of the larger storm, while the one near Iceland encourages the jet to track pretty much due east across the Atlantic. The stronger the low is, the stronger this forcing is - hence we have also seen the jet trending flatter. 
Without this effect, the large low would have elongated to the S or SE as the jet arced south, allowing a wedge of heights to hang on in the Iceland/Greenland area for at least a time. This we have seen the models play around with at times over the past two days, but with little consistency.

Now though, the tide really does seem to have turned away from such an outcome. With the jet flat and the low elongating east, the cold air is strung out across the North Atlantic, providing an environment in which the jet stream can really kick into gear. So it is that we end up with something like the UKMO day 6 chart. The fact that the lower strat. has a neat split by this time has little bearing; it's not a strong signal in terms of geopotential heights, so strong forcing from within the troposphere can override it with ease.

 

I have learnt a great deal from how this season has played out - among the biggest discoveries being the fact that you can have some epic warming of the stratosphere without a large change in geopotential heights. It was as the lack of such became apparent int he model output around mid-Feb that I began to lose any real conviction with respect to major cold spells in March, relegating it to a file named 'uncertain possibilities'.

I Just Came Back From A Week In Shenzhen China And I've Been going therefor 20 years boy oh boy it was freezing and they normally have tshirt weather so something happened but we over here didn't benefit cold wise over in china a different ball game 

[Singularity]

3 minutes ago, jethro said:

Thicko question.......does this mean we can look forward to wet weather again?

Perfectly reasonable question, nothing thick about it 

It does look likely to feature from around the middle of next week, more so the further north you are. Still need to wait and see how well high pressure holds on across the south though.

Edited March 18, 2016 by Singularity

[Frosty.]

The GEM 12z finally drops the Northerly it was showing on yesterday's and this morning's output for Easter and joins the rest of the output with a flatter Atlantic driven pattern. It shouldn't be a surprise since the met office don't say anything about a northerly and in addition they have also dropped the Northerly for early April that they mentioned yesterday and are currently favouring a predominantly easterly or southeasterly flow through April although that could change again by tomorrow.

[Frosty.]

No Northerly on the Ecm 12z either, it's a shame because yesterday at this time both the Gem and Ecm 12z were showing a convective wintry showers and night frosts set up for Easter but not any more. In the meantime, it should stay settled until well into next week but then become more unsettled as time goes on.

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Models have completely dropped any northern blocking for any late white Easter fare.....See you in November, east qbo , less solar , La Niña...fingers crossed as last few winters have been naff for Snow down here

Bye all

Bye Greenland..see you in November

[Guest]

MY LATEST REPORT UPDATED WITH MARCH 18TH 2016 INPUT

Please note that most of the charts that I refer to in this post are through “live” links which update periodically. So, if you are reading this a few hours after publication, the charts may already have updated. My comments relate to what the charts showed at the time of this posting.

The Extreme Uncertainty Continues:

The F1 season is just starting with the Australian Grand Prix this Sunday but the models’ F1 predictions have been racing all over the place for the last 8 to 10 weeks! Ever since the prospect of a major SSW event was first forecast (in January) to start in early February, the models have had great difficulty in handling its impact. Although the stratospheric warming has been recognised as one of the strongest, if not the strongest, ever in the stratosphere, its impacts on the surface have (or had) been negligible so far. It has confounded many of the experts. The normal SSW pattern of propagating down through the troposphere to the surface just would not materialise properly and was delayed for a few weeks from mid-Winter, to late Winter and now to early Spring. The jury is out on the reasons for this and I’m sure we will see much analysis, debate and differing opinions from the experts on the subject during the coming months. The extremely strong El Nino must be one of the main factors but there are probably others and whether these simultaneous factors enhance or interfere with SSW propagation will need to be examined and scrutinised. Hopefully, important lessons will have been learnt to assist with future forecasts.

I do not believe that is all over folks! We may be seeing some direct or indirect SSW surface impacts right now. It seems that we will be unlikely to see major broad scale pattern changes, at least not those which are associated with a mid-Winter SSW event with prolonged HLB and cold conditions seeping down towards the mid latitudes. We may, however, still see some very unusual synoptic patterns. We are in the Spring season which normally produces rapid pattern changes with a few brief warm spells and also several Arctic cold snaps but I am expecting something special with some much more extreme variations!

The models’ output is more uncertain than ever. Just in the last 2 to 3 days we have seen wild swings. For example, the GFS in 2 consecutive runs lurched from showing Easter maximum temperatures in East Anglia of 5c on one run, then 21c on the next and later back-tracked again. This was not just a pub run but more like a beer festival! Most of the other models have been completely undecided on anything beyond about one week out. Only the GEM (until their 12z today) had been consistent over the last few days and they had stuck to pretty cold patterns.

There is huge uncertainty as to how the current UK high pressure block will break down. Most models are going for some time next week but what might follow? Almost any outcome has been on offer over the last few days. The high could decline south-westwards and allow an unsettled spell with zonal westerlies for a while. It could move south allowing a much milder south-westerly. It could move west or north-westwards allowing a colder north-westerly or northerly flow to develop. It could move north-east into Scandinavia with the colder air that has develop recently over eastern Europe and western Russia being dragged into the UK on an easterly. It could more south-east, allowing a very warm southerly flow to flood across the UK. I would not like to put odds on any of these outcomes right now.

The 12z runs have just come out and there seems greater agreement with a shift towards a zonal westerly outcome with the jet powering up and realigning across us bringing in some quite deep depressions and a much more unsettled spell with variable (but no exceptional) temperatures. This all seems incredibly progressive. We may well see backtracking and more wild swings in the next 2 to 3 days. I would say that F1 starts at T+84 right now!

The Met Office have been admitting for a while just how uncertain the outlook is over the next few weeks. If anything, in recent days, the wording in their 30 day outlooks has changed to reflect even greater uncertainty and contains some highly generalised phrases. This is not a criticism. In fact, I admire their honesty – in highly unusual set-ups it is much better to be truthful about the uncertain outlook rather than take something of a punt in one particular direction. It may be a while until much stronger and consistent signals start to show up.

As you will see below, nearly all the regions where I have been tracking surface temperatures have cooled off considerably in recent days. Wouldn’t it be ironic that now that we have finally achieved much lower “source” temperatures, that we do not get the right synoptics. Any high Arctic northerly, north-easterly from Scandinavia (to a lesser extent) or an easterly from north-west Russia would almost certainly be a good deal more potent compared to most of the 2015-16 Winter. For coldies, just one of these airstreams could give us a very wintry spell, although it might be quite brief.

AO Ensemble Charts: 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

Just to reflect the huge uncertainties, the AO indices are all over the place trending negative and positive and with about half the members ending positive and the other half ending negative (one neutral). So this either indicates some or no HLB. Far too uncertain to say any more!

MJO Ensemble charts:

I was going to leave the whole MJO analysis to Singularity after my last report but I shall continue with a very brief update just to reflect the uncertainties here too. Here are today's MJO ensemble charts for the big 4 and Kyle MacRitchie’s for March 18th. 

UKMO:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ukme.shtml

ECM:   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml

NCEP/GEFS:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

JMA:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/jman.shtml

Kyle MacRitchie:  http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/

Some strange looking charts there and with a wide range of model predictions.

Kyle MacRitchie:  Continues his consistently bullish approach. He shows the MJO progressing through all the phases from 2 right through to 7 by April 5th, phase 8 by April 11th and phase 1 by April 16th. Once again he maintains high amplitude throughout.

Feedback Please: Singularity felt that I should continue with Kyle’s analysis. What do other experts like Tamara feel about the validity of Kyle’s research? I could still include his charts in my more occasional reports for the time being.

Current Arctic Regional Surface Temperatures:

GFS – Northern Hemisphere Current Temperatures:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=9&carte=1

The link to this chart updates 6 hourly with each GFS run. At the time of writing it is showing a chart for 1900 today (18th March***). As this is T0 to T6 hours, it should be pretty accurate. Here is a summary of the temperature reading that I have been following in the reports with the previous reading (from my last report) for March 16th in brackets alongside:

North Pole – around -28c to -36c (-24c to -32c)..

Barents Sea/High Arctic – around -24c to -32c (-16c to -20c).

Scandinavia - around -4c to -8c (0c to -4c).

Northern Siberia - around -20c to -32c (unchanged).

North West Russia - around -16c to -32c (-8c to -20c).

North-east Europe – around -8c to -12c (0c to -4c).

Overall, apart from northern Siberia, all the temperatures have trended down during the last 2 days.

*** Please note:   At the time of posting this link it was showing 1900 on Monday, March 18th. I always try to show the 1900 charts for a consistent comparison. The charts are automatically updated 4 times a day, so the temperatures shown will be different to those I just mentioned above. We can follow the trends by looking at the latest data at any time from now on. It is vital to note the time of day to take account of daytime/night time variations. So for like for like comparisons, for example the 1900 charts for each day should be available to view from the 12z (T+6) updates which are published around 1600 or about 4 hours later. This also applies to some of the other charts I link to in this post.

Svalbard Daily “Maximum” Temperature Forecast for 10 Days:

Here are the links to the 3 Svalbard stations that I am monitoring.

Central Svalbard – Longyearbyen 28 m asl:   

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/forecast.pdf

March 19th  -15c;   March 23rd  -11c;    March 27th  -8c.

West Svalbard – Ny-Alesund:                                                            

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Ny-%C3%85lesund/forecast.pdf

March 19th  -17c;   March 23rd  -14c;    March 27th  -9c.

South Svalbard – Sveagruva:                                          

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Sveagruva/forecast.pdf

March 19th  -21c;   March 23rdt  -19c;    March 27th  -12c.

The general trend is for the “maximum” temperatures (which fell from much higher levels over last few weeks when they often exceeded 0c), to bottom out over this weekend and then only rise very slightly later next week but still maintain pretty low levels.

These links will update automatically at frequent intervals throughout the day. They are the Norway met office’s predictions. We need to be aware that these are only a forecast that is subject to change and I am told that the Arctic surface temperature forecasts are not completely reliable even at short range. 

To put the above figures into context, here is a link to the main Longyearbyen site:  

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

This shows monthly means, and actual highest/lowest temperatures recorded during this winter and goes back further. Apart from a couple of days in December, Svalbard is now seeing “maximum” temperatures falling to well below average, for the first time since Winter 2014/15

Next Update:

This will be dictated by the timing of Dr Judah Cohen’s next AO Report weekly update. So, probably on Monday, March 21st but possibly on Sunday, March 20th.

 

Edited March 18, 2016 by Guest
Ensure that all links work ok + grammar + spelling

[Frosty.]

23 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

 

 

 

Next Update:

This will be dictated by the timing of Dr Judah Cohen’s next AO Report weekly update. So, probably on Monday, March 21st but possibly on Sunday, March 20th.

 

You put so much effort into your posts, it's just a shame the Arctic has been about as useful to the uk as a chocolate teapot for the last 4 months in terms of any Arctic weather but I'm really looking forward to Dr Judah Cohen's next AO report. :-)

[ANYWEATHER]

59 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

MY LATEST REPORT UPDATED WITH MARCH 18TH 2016 INPUT

Please note that most of the charts that I refer to in this post are through “live” links which update periodically. So, if you are reading this a few hours after publication, the charts may already have updated. My comments relate to what the charts showed at the time of this posting.

The Extreme Uncertainty Continues:

The F1 season is just starting with the Australian Grand Prix this Sunday but the models’ F1 predictions have been racing all over the place for the last 8 to 10 weeks! Ever since the prospect of a major SSW event was first forecast (in January) to start in early February, the models have had great difficulty in handling its impact. Although the stratospheric warming has been recognised as one of the strongest, if not the strongest, ever in the stratosphere, its impacts on the surface have (or had) been negligible so far. It has confounded many of the experts. The normal SSW pattern of propagating down through the troposphere to the surface just would not materialise properly and was delayed for a few weeks from mid-Winter, to late Winter and now to early Spring. The jury is out on the reasons for this and I’m sure we will see much analysis, debate and differing opinions from the experts on the subject during the coming months. The extremely strong El Nino must be one of the main factors but there are probably others and whether these simultaneous factors enhance or interfere with SSW propagation will need to be examined and scrutinised. Hopefully, important lessons will have been learnt to assist with future forecasts.

I do not believe that is all over folks! We may be seeing some direct or indirect SSW surface impacts right now. It seems that we will be unlikely to see major broad scale pattern changes, at least not those which are associated with a mid-Winter SSW event with prolonged HLB and cold conditions seeping down towards the mid latitudes. We may, however, still see some very unusual synoptic patterns. We are in the Spring season which normally produces rapid pattern changes with a few brief warm spells and also several Arctic cold snaps but I am expecting something special with some much more extreme variations!

The models’ output is more uncertain than ever. Just in the last 2 to 3 days we have seen wild swings. For example, the GFS in 2 consecutive runs lurched from showing Easter maximum temperatures in East Anglia of 5c on one run, then 21c on the next and later back-tracked again. This was not just a pub run but more like a beer festival! Most of the other models have been completely undecided on anything beyond about one week out. Only the GEM (until their 12z today) had been consistent over the last few days and they had stuck to pretty cold patterns.

There is huge uncertainty as to how the current UK high pressure block will break down. Most models are going for some time next week but what might follow? Almost any outcome has been on offer over the last few days. The high could decline south-westwards and allow an unsettled spell with zonal westerlies for a while. It could move south allowing a much milder south-westerly. It could move west or north-westwards allowing a colder north-westerly or northerly flow to develop. It could move north-east into Scandinavia with the colder air that has develop recently over eastern Europe and western Russia being dragged into the UK on an easterly. It could more south-east, allowing a very warm southerly flow to flood across the UK. I would not like to put odds on any of these outcomes right now.

The 12z runs have just come out and there seems greater agreement with a shift towards a zonal westerly outcome with the jet powering up and realigning across us bringing in some quite deep depressions and a much more unsettled spell with variable (but no exceptional) temperatures. This all seems incredibly progressive. We may well see backtracking and more wild swings in the next 2 to 3 days. I would say that F1 starts at T+84 right now!

The Met Office have been admitting for a while just how uncertain the outlook is over the next few weeks. If anything, in recent days, the wording in their 30 day outlooks has changed to reflect even greater uncertainty and contains some highly generalised phrases. This is not a criticism. In fact, I admire their honesty – in highly unusual set-ups it is much better to be truthful about the uncertain outlook rather than take something of a punt in one particular direction. It may be a while until much stronger and consistent signals start to show up.

As you will see below, nearly all the regions where I have been tracking surface temperatures have cooled off considerably in recent days. Wouldn’t it be ironic that now that we have finally achieved much lower “source” temperatures, that we do not get the right synoptics. Any high Arctic northerly, north-easterly from Scandinavia (to a lesser extent) or an easterly from north-west Russia would almost certainly be a good deal more potent compared to most of the 2015-16 Winter. For coldies, just one of these airstreams could give us a very wintry spell, although it might be quite brief.

AO Ensemble Charts: 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

Just to reflect the huge uncertainties, the AO indices are all over the place trending negative and positive and with about half the members ending positive and the other half ending negative (one neutral). So this either indicates some or no HLB. Far too uncertain to say any more!

MJO Ensemble charts:

I was going to leave the whole MJO analysis to Singularity after my last report but I shall continue with a very brief update just to reflect the uncertainties here too. Here are today's MJO ensemble charts for the big 4 and Kyle MacRitchie’s for March 18th. 

UKMO:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ukme.shtml

ECM:   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml

NCEP/GEFS:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

JMA:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/jman.shtml

Kyle MacRitchie:  http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/

Some strange looking charts there and with a wide range of model predictions.

Kyle MacRitchie:  Continues his consistently bullish approach. He shows the MJO progressing through all the phases from 2 right through to 7 by April 5th, phase 8 by April 11th and phase 1 by April 16th. Once again he maintains high amplitude throughout.

Feedback Please: Singularity felt that I should continue with Kyle’s analysis. What do other experts like Tamara feel about the validity of Kyle’s research? I could still include his charts in my more occasional reports for the time being.

Current Arctic Regional Surface Temperatures:

GFS – Northern Hemisphere Current Temperatures:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=9&carte=1

The link to this chart updates 6 hourly with each GFS run. At the time of writing it is showing a chart for 1900 today (18th March***). As this is T0 to T6 hours, it should be pretty accurate. Here is a summary of the temperature reading that I have been following in the reports with the previous reading (from my last report) for March 16th in brackets alongside:

North Pole – around -28c to -36c (-24c to -32c)..

Barents Sea/High Arctic – around -24c to -32c (-16c to -20c).

Scandinavia - around -4c to -8c (0c to -4c).

Northern Siberia - around -20c to -32c (unchanged).

North West Russia - around -16c to -32c (-8c to -20c).

North-east Europe – around -8c to -12c (0c to -4c).

Overall, apart from northern Siberia, all the temperatures have trended down during the last 2 days.

*** Please note:   At the time of posting this link it was showing 1900 on Monday, March 18th. I always try to show the 1900 charts for a consistent comparison. The charts are automatically updated 4 times a day, so the temperatures shown will be different to those I just mentioned above. We can follow the trends by looking at the latest data at any time from now on. It is vital to note the time of day to take account of daytime/night time variations. So for like for like comparisons, for example the 1900 charts for each day should be available to view from the 12z (T+6) updates which are published around 1600 or about 4 hours later. This also applies to some of the other charts I link to in this post.

Svalbard Daily “Maximum” Temperature Forecast for 10 Days:

Here are the links to the 3 Svalbard stations that I am monitoring.

Central Svalbard – Longyearbyen 28 m asl:   

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/forecast.pdf

March 19th  -15c;   March 23rd  -11c;    March 27th  -8c.

West Svalbard – Ny-Alesund:                                                            

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Ny-%C3%85lesund/forecast.pdf

March 19th  -17c;   March 23rd  -14c;    March 27th  -9c.

South Svalbard – Sveagruva:                                          

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Sveagruva/forecast.pdf

March 19th  -21c;   March 23rdt  -19c;    March 27th  -12c.

The general trend is for the “maximum” temperatures (which fell from much higher levels over last few weeks when they often exceeded 0c), to bottom out over this weekend and then only rise very slightly later next week but still maintain pretty low levels.

These links will update automatically at frequent intervals throughout the day. They are the Norway met office’s predictions. We need to be aware that these are only a forecast that is subject to change and I am told that the Arctic surface temperature forecasts are not completely reliable even at short range. 

To put the above figures into context, here is a link to the main Longyearbyen site:  

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

This shows monthly means, and actual highest/lowest temperatures recorded during this winter and goes back further. Apart from a couple of days in December, Svalbard is now seeing “maximum” temperatures falling to well below average, for the first time since Winter 2014/15

Next Update:

This will be dictated by the timing of Dr Judah Cohen’s next AO Report weekly update. So, probably on Monday, March 21st but possibly on Sunday, March 20th.

 

Many thanks for your updates, you will be a Gem on here, please keep the updates coming

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening, Ecm goes from a wintry low to an Atlantic stormy low....Duh Duh Duh....

[Daniel*]

I commend BB 62-63 however I think your daily quite elaborate, eloquent put assessment(s) are going in vain - it is growing by the day too late for any meaningful 'stab', I feel you should take note of this, something beyond my knowledge has blighted us all winter. I cannot recall a season so characterised with let downs.

I find this weather quite frankly boring this site is quite mute outside the ruddy EU ref thread the synopsis being an earbashing  T+216 would blow away the cobwebs   

The 'reign' of High pressure trended by all the models to be bowled away out the way remaining cool not cold though and turning unsettled, good for the ducks - our pal Sidney will need to shelter his nuts...it must be said it has been pretty dry over the last few months IMBY, emerging signs this could break down?

Easter Sunday

Edited March 18, 2016 by Daniel*
Grammar

[jethro]

6 hours ago, Singularity said:

Perfectly reasonable question, nothing thick about it 

It does look likely to feature from around the middle of next week, more so the further north you are. Still need to wait and see how well high pressure holds on across the south though.

Oh what joy, I can hardly contain my glee - hopefully I'm far enough south to get the high pressure instead.

Thank you for being kind but I am a genuine thicko when it comes to this model malarkey, it's all just blobs and squiggles.

[knocker]

13 hours ago, Singularity said:

@Gael_Force

- -

I have learnt a great deal from how this season has played out - among the biggest discoveries being the fact that you can have some epic warming of the stratosphere without a large change in geopotential heights. It was as the lack of such became apparent int he model output around mid-Feb that I began to lose any real conviction with respect to major cold spells in March, relegating it to a file named 'uncertain possibilities'.

I'm afraid I'm another thicko. Given that geopotential heights are essentially a function of temperature how can you have huge changes in temperature without significant changes of geopotential height?

MODS As a matter of interest how do you delete these highlighted sections?

Edited March 19, 2016 by knocker

[IDO]

It has been clear for sometime that the models have little interest in any top down connect with the trop as to HLB'ing. It would appear that we are still learning with respect to strat effects further down. Thats two years where any SSW has not really done the job for the trop.

It is looking like we are heading for an extended period of zonal/westerly weather after the HP dissipates. With the core cold (T850s) over the NW along with a PV piece, it looks like it will be the cool type, so late March into early April wet with cold rain. The JMA w3-4 highlights this un-enticing prospect, along with CFS:

Another non-winter for the UK (one of the warmest in fact) and the hype about a late one was also well off the mark (CET 0.2c below average for March). Lets hope Spring isn't ruined by the current setup, although the omens are not looking good, April looks a stinker on JMA and it is not till June that temps get better:

April: 

 

[mb018538]

What I will say, is that the models haven't handled this upcoming situation very well.....a few days ago, a zonal Atlantic steam train didn't look likely at all, now it's in full on default mode! 

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

What I will say, is that the models haven't handled this upcoming situation very well.....a few days ago, a zonal Atlantic steam train didn't look likely at all, now it's in full on default mode! 

I think its going to get very quiet in here...

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning shows an unsettled Westerly flow off the Atlantic into week 2.

Edited March 19, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY MAR 19TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure to the West of Scotland will move slowly Southwest over the next 24 hours or so maintaining the slack Northerly flow across the UK backing more towards the NW over the North tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will fall a little over the next 24 hours or so especially across the North and East where the temperature will fall from close to 6000ft to a little under 5000ft by tomorrow. No snowfall is expected though across the UK over the next day or so.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly dry and cloudy at first then becoming very unsettled across the UK over Easter and the end of the month. Temperatures returning to near normal.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream remains blocked for a little longer until the High pressure block to the West of the UK collapses early next week with the Jet flow strengthening and realigning close to the South of the UK for the end of next week and week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a much more mobile pattern developing as we move towards Easter and through the second week as Low pressure replaces High pressure up to the North and NW of the UK with rain at times for all in strong winds and average temperatures, the rain heaviest and most prolonged towards the North and West

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the operational with the fine period coming to an end early next week as Low pressure develops from the NW and replaces High pressure with spells of rain and showers for all with average temperatures and some March gales in places too at times as we reach towards the end of the month.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today though still somewhat mixed indicate an emphasis towards more unsettled based Atlantic driven weather as we end the month with rain at times for all.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning develops a much more mobile pattern as we move towards the Easter holiday with rain at times developing for all with time, last to reach the SE with temperatures close to average by then in a blustery Westerly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure weakening over the coming days as it slips towards the SW next week with fronts approaching from the West heralding rain by the middle of the week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning winds up the Atlantic too next week as High pressure declines away to the SW early next week. This opens the door to the Atlantic Jet stream and Low pressure to enter UK airspace with spells of rain and gales especially over Easter itself equally possible for all areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also indicates a change to unsettled and windy weather as we move through the middle of next week and then Easter as Low pressure deepens to the NW and moves closer in to Northern Britain with associated rain and SW gales affecting all areas at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure slipping away SW next week with pressure falling for all. Rain bearing fronts will affect the UK from midweek, most active in the North and West to begin with but with pressure falling steeply over Easter all areas will become decidedly unsettled with rain and strong winds at times in temperatures close to or a fraction below average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart shows the Jet Stream well South of the UK with Low pressure close to NW Britain. Cyclonic winds across the UK would ensure wet and windy conditions mixed with sunshine and showers the likely weather pattern in temperatures close to the late March average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is universal support now for the UK to enter a very unsettled spell for all areas by the Easter weekend

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.1 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 85.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.5 pts to 59.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has regained the lead from ECM with a score of 44.5 pts to 44.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  From a personal point of view I don't like the look of the charts this morning as I'm doing an outside event at a craft fair in a gazebo over the Easter weekend. Almost without exception the charts from all models show Easter as an unsettled and windy affair and a few charts suggest something potentially stormy possible with rain, heavy at times a very common feature of the holiday weekend. In the short term we have to see the demise of the large High pressure just to the west of Scotland currently and it will be another 4-5 days before it's influence to the UK is entirely lost. There will be some rain in the NW early in the week and this then slips South to all areas in time for Easter as winds back to a more Westerly point everywhere. Then it's just a matter of how unsettled it gets and most output suggests that it will become very unsettled and windy with rain at times and showers at others. While temperature values may indicate average levels it can only feel cold in the strength of the wind and when it's raining. Once we leave Easter the weather looks like maintaining a very unsettled picture as Low pressure is shown to maintain full control of the weather over the UK with rain at times and temperatures remaining close to average.. For those looking for a taste of Spring warmth this morning's output is not looking very hopeful but on the plus side the cold Northerly flow that was predicted for Easter over the UK within early this week's output appears dead in the water now with what we've got not un-seasonal and unusual shown for this time of year instead. 

Next Update Sunday March 20th 2016 from 09:00 

Edited March 19, 2016 by Gibby

[Weather Observer]

46 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

What I will say, is that the models haven't handled this upcoming situation very well.....a few days ago, a zonal Atlantic steam train didn't look likely at all, now it's in full on default mode! 

When it turns out that Ben Nevis is one metre higher than every schoolboy thought it was, I think I will give the models some slack, at least for a while.

[Summer Sun]

After a lengthy spell of settled and often cloudy weather it does look like 'normal service' will resume from later next week just in time for the bank holiday

ECM ens

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Gibby said:

 

 

 on the plus side the cold Northerly flow that was predicted for Easter over the UK within early this week's output appears dead in the water now

I think it's a shame there won't be a Northerly flow, it would have brought clean Arctic air, clear sunny starts followed by convective wintry showers and crisp clear nights. Instead it looks like the Atlantic is going to crank up with the usual spells of wind and rain that we had throughout the autumn and winter.

[Captain Shortwave]

17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think it's a shame there won't be a Northerly flow, it would have brought clean Arctic air, clear sunny starts followed by convective wintry showers and crisp clear nights. Instead it looks like the Atlantic is going to crank up with the usual spells of wind and rain that we had throughout the autumn and winter.

I must agree with this, seeing a cold and bright Easter weekend replaced by a potentially very unsettled spell isn't exactly a step in the right direction.

The model output suggests little deviation from the seasonal average with showers or longer spells of rain after this current settled spells ends by the middle of the coming week. Very little suggestion of anything warm or cold in the output at the moment.

[Nouska]

3 hours ago, IDO said:

It has been clear for sometime that the models have little interest in any top down connect with the trop as to HLB'ing. It would appear that we are still learning with respect to strat effects further down. Thats two years where any SSW has not really done the job for the trop.

What was the other year? - last technical SSW was 2013 and that sure did the business.

Yes, a lot to learn about the strat but it has never before been under such close scrutiny as a tool for bringing the much desired big freeze to a specific location. The science is advancing, expectations need to, as well.