Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Really, a large part of the past 4 months has been governed by to what extent the MJO is active, and where, due to an apparent stratospheric disconnect. If we knew more about the EPS mechanism that may be responsible (see latest page of stratosphere thread) then this could perhaps have been anticipated pre-season. Perhaps.

Your ruling out the El Nino then.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows anticyclonic domination next week, even by next weekend pressure is still high and only slowly does pressure start to fall early in week 2 with the briefest of unsettled blips before pressure rises again and temperatures rise too, becoming much warmer, especially across the south. As for the week ahead, it looks quiet and largely dry with variable amounts of cloud but also spells of pleasantly warm sunshine, the best of the sunshine further north and west and nights look on the cold side, especially where skies are clear with a risk of frost and fog but it's nice to finally have a DRY spell after all the rain we had throughout the winter and start of spring.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows high pressure from start to finish, the high drifts a little further west but stays in control with day to day variations in cloud amounts and sunshine and feeling pleasant in the strengthening mid March sun but nights cold enough where skies clear for slight frosts and some mist / fog patches. There are signs of change beyond T+240 but it could just be brief before pressure rises again..decent early spring weather!

Edited March 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[Guest]

MY LATEST REPORT UPDATED WITH MARCH 12TH 2016 INPUT

Please note that most of the charts that I refer to in this post are through “live” links which update periodically. So, if you are reading this a few hours after I have posted this, the charts may already have updated. My comments relate to what the charts showed at the time of this posting.

The Models Today:

Most of the runs continue to be completely inconsistent. For example, the GFS 6z run showed rather more HLB, particularly in the second half of the run but the 12z reverted to a much flatter pattern with very little HLB. These are clear signs that they cannot decide whether we shall see any surface impacts from the SSW in a week to 10 days’ time.

I have decided to post all the T+144 Northern Hemisphere pressure charts for the main models for next Friday, March 18th. This is so that I can include all the main models, as UKMO end their run at 6 days out. March 18th is getting to within 2 to 3 days of when some of the analysts (like Judah Cohen) feel that the current SSW should finally impact at the surface (this may change of course). So, let us see over the next few days how these charts progress. 6 days out should normally be in the more reliable period but the uncertainties of the SSW surface impacts and how the models assess the possible pattern changes may lead  to them showing even greater swings in the next 2 to 3 days!

I will update these at T+144 for the next couple of days. If the impact signs are starting to show and the timing remains similar, I shall start to home in on that date with increasingly shorter term charts until (if/when) it arrives.

The main changes that I will be looking over the next few days is to see if (any of) the models are showing whether there is any movement of low heights out of NE Canada and transferring across to Europe and Siberia and also signs of HLB. This would reflect part of the possible pattern changes which might have a greater impact on the UK later this month and into April. Of course, the changes might move the other way. It is another, perhaps rather crude way, of monitoring these possible impacts. I note that the strat thread has remained extremely quiet in the last few days. Will this major SSW with its strong stratospheric reversal propagate down to the surface?

Here are the charts. Once you have used any of the links and have located a model, you can look at earlier and later charts. I hope that the T+144s show properly. If anyone can suggest a better way of making this comparison (which I shall update daily for the next few days) please feel free to say so.

Northern Hemisphere Pressure Charts for T+144 on Friday, March 18th:

GFS: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=1

UKMO:  http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

ECM:   http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

GEM:   http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=1

NAVGEM:   http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=1

JMA:   http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=168&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0

Please note that the JMA update their 12z charts from T+84 onwards overnight and their T+144 was published yesterday. So I show the T+168 chart for the correct time comparison.

All the models show some progression of low heights eastwards but this is still around 2-3 days before i would expect to see the T+144s (then for March 20th/21st) to show far greater changes. I will add some more analysis and comments on the progress (or lack of it) in my next post in Sunday evening's update.

AO Ensemble Charts: 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

Most of the 10 ensemble members move through neutral around March 17th and into negative territory thereafter with some more strongly negative by March 22nd. 2 members end positive and one is more or less neutral. Overall, the emphasis is on the AO index trending negative from the middle of next week compared to yesterday’s more mixed outcome.

MJO Ensemble charts:

Here are todays MJO ensemble charts for the big 3 and Kyle MacRitchie’s for March 12th. 

UKMO:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ukme.shtml

ECM: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml

NCEP/GEFS:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

JMA:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/jman.shtml

Kyle MacRitchie: http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/

 

UKMO: a slight change today. They moved into phase 3 yesterday then gradually progress  into phase 4 and on towards phase 5 by March 22nd with a wider spread of ensemble members with some going for rather higher amplitude.

ECM:  very similar to UKMO initially up to March 20th. Then, with their longer forecast period they progress steadily through phase 5, with a huge spread of outcomes. Many members progress steadily on to phases 6 and 7 around March 27th mostly at much higher amplitude. Several members re-enter the circle of death, reflecting the huge uncertainty.

NCEP/GEFS: continue to take quite a different view which is somewhat changed to yesterday’s forecast.  Far fewer ensemble members enter the circle of death and they progress through phases 3 and 4 at very low amplitude but then reach phase 5 at slightly increasing amplitude by around March 18th. Then they all move on to phase 6 in the following 5 to 6 days but with a wide spread of amplitudes – several returning to the circle of death but there are rather more at higher amplitude. Finally, all the members reach phase 7 around March 25th/26th with a few at reasonable amplitude (one going on to phase 8 but most either just inside or close to the circle of death. Again, very mixed and uncertain.

JMA:  have changed very little with all ensemble members inside the circle of death (near to the phase 2/3 boundary). If anything, the members are packed even more tightly together.

Kyle MacRitchie:  There is very little change with his continued consistency and a far more positive view. He still retains good amplitude, in fact even greater amplitude today. He shows the MJO progressing through all the phases from 1 right on to 8 by April 12th.

Well today we see a few changes with the big 3 looking more lively and moving slightly towards Kyle MacRitchie’s predictions. Perhaps he is on to something and not completely wrong!

What does GloSea5 show now? Please can Fergie provide another update.

Current Arctic Temperatures:

GFS – Northern Hemisphere Current Temperatures:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=9&carte=1

The link to this chart updates 6 hourly with each GFS run. At the time of writing it is showing a chart for 1900 today (12th March***). As this is T0 to T6 hours, it should be pretty accurate. In the Arctic, temperatures close to the North Pole are around -20c to -24c (-28c to -32c yesterday). In “our” part of the high Arctic (around the Barents Sea) temperatures have changed little around  -4c to -12c  today (and yesterday). Most of Scandinavia remains at -4c to -12c  and much of northern Siberia remains around -32c to -40c (similar to yesterday) but with a wider area below -40c.

*** Please note:   At the time of posting this link it was showing 1900 on Saturday, March 12th. The charts are automatically updated 4 times a day, so the temperatures shown will be different to those I just mentioned above. We can follow the trends by looking at the latest data at any time from now on. It is vital to note the time of day to take account of daytime/nighttime variations. So for like for like comparisons, for example the 1900 charts for each day should be available to view from the 12z (T+6) updates which are published around 1600 or about 4 hours later. This also applies to some of the other charts I link to in this post.

Svalbard Daily “Maximum” Temperature Forecast for 10 Days:

Here are the links to the 3 Svalbard stations that I am monitoring.

Central Svalbard – Longyearbyen 28 m asl:   

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/forecast.pdf

March 15th  -2c;   March 18th  -12c;    March 21st  -11c.

West Svalbard – Ny-Alesund:                                                            

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Ny-%C3%85lesund/forecast.pdf

March 15th  -3c;   March 18th  -18c;    March 21st  -16c.

South Svalbard – Sveagruva:                                          

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Sveagruva/forecast.pdf

March 15th  -3c;   March 18th  -17c;    March 21st  -17c.

The general trend is for the “maximum” temperatures to fall during the next 6 days and then to level out at the much lower values after that.

These links will update automatically at frequent intervals throughout the day. They are the Norway met office’s predictions. We need to be aware that these are only a forecast that is subject to change and I am told that the Arctic surface temperature forecasts are not completely reliable even at short range. 

To put the above figures into context, here is a link to the main Longyearbyen site:  

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

This shows monthly means, and actual highest/lowest temperatures recorded during this winter and goes back further. Apart from a couple of days in December, Svalbard is likely to see temperatures falling to average and then below, for the first time since Winter 2014/15

Final Comment:

Overall today, there are a few signs of "possible" future pattern changes and some colder signs. The Northern Hemisphere models are hinting at an eastward shift in low heights in around 6 to 7 days. The AO indices are generally trending more negative within a few days.  The MJO is definitely a little more lively apart from the JMA model.  The forecast Svalbard temperatures are indicating some very cold air shifting into that part of the Arctic our side of the North Pole. it is still impossible to say in which direction we will go from here. I shall keep updating. More tomorrow.

 

Edited March 12, 2016 by Guest
check that links work + grammar, spelling

[Woollymummy]

This spell of high pressure can stay for as long as it likes, I have a fondness for wild stormy weather in autumn when it's time to hunker down and get ready for hibernation but this weather, even with morning fog, suits my desperate need to start gardening again and sort things out which have been neglected over the winter. Hence this kind of chart and the fact that I could only work outside today if I took off my coat means I am very happy for this kind of spring to continue.

Edited March 12, 2016 by Woollymummy

[knocker]

The GEFS anomalies tonight are still being consistent with relaxing the influence of the HP over the UK around the 22nd.  Then brief zonality before ridging to the west and then later in the run the trough from the Canadian vortex becomes orientated SE into mid Atlantic veering the winds NW over the UK.

So after a fair spell of quiet pleasant weather the return of periods of more unsettled towards the end of the period although the temps on the whole don't look too bad.

Edited March 12, 2016 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Greenland1080 said:

GFS a nonsense at the moment.....ECM consistent  as usual...

Haven't had much time to post this week but have been following the charts - IMO the GFS has had a terrible time trying to work out what the Atlantic low and the tiny cold pool running E to W are going to do - whilst the new ECM has had a terrific start, consistent day in day out keeping the high over the UK out to D5,6,7,8,9. Good work ECM!

[Summer Sun]

Not a bad start to the Easter weekend

Temps slowly easing down for Easter Sunday and Monday

[knocker]

The ecm at day ten also still the HP in situ with further ridging out to west which is significant to some extent as we move forward.

Our ridge quickly erodes and by T300 the westerly  ridge has moved east and is just to the west of the UK whilst the Canadian trough is orientated SE into mid Atlantic a la GEFS. By T360 only very weak ridging remains over the UK with the Atlantic trough running away south from Greenland to the west of Iberia. With winds coming from the W/SW this will herald periods of unsettle weather with temps varying around the norm. In the meantime the Russian trough has become a very weak affair with the cold air dissipated.

Abandon hope all ye who enter here.

 

[Singularity]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

Your ruling out the El Nino then.

Nope - I was speaking with respect to variation within the space of weeks, whereas the El Nino is more of a monthly/seasonal basis. Something I should have mentioned in the original post so good job you pointed that out to me.

GFS 18z has backed the pattern west again as of +216 hours, so more in line with recent ECM runs. It continues to be optimistic with the cloud amounts too, considering there is a flow of the N sea Tue-Thu (which at least is accounted for in terms of cloud distribution on Tuesday):

     

I don't tend to trust these charts beyond very short range, but figure they're worth posting so that we can think back to this outlook when dealing with whatever cloud amounts actually come along.

The strong Arctic High is back on this run, having gone AWOL on the 12z. I wouldn't be surprised to see it having some effect on our weather during the second half of March.

[Tim Bland]

Still a chance of that cold air over to the east making it to our shores. The SSW is destroying the PV and WAA is forcing high pressure to our NW. ECM goes for -8c uppers in the east at day 9 so flurries possible here.

 

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY MAR 13TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure will remain very high over the UK in the coming days with the weak frontal troughs across the NW decaying and moving away North in the next 24 hours. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain in the range of 6000-7000ft asl under strong High pressure which as a result will not allow for any snowfall across the UK for some considerable time.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly dry and bright with some frosts at night and near average temperatures by day.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is blowing NE across Iceland at the moment a position it maintains for some considerable while. There is also a southern arm of the flow too for a time across Iberia but through the two weeks the UK lies well away from the core of the flow as it maintains generally well North and South of the UK

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure in complete control of the weather across the UK throughout the next few weeks. It's position varies a little day to day but it never loses firm control for all with plenty of dry and fine weather with just slight variations on amounts of cloud and a chilly breeze day to day the main focus for forecasters. Towards the end of the Easter weekend the charts show a brief cold Northerly developing down across the UK as Low pressure dives SE over Europe but High pressure looks set to build back down from the NW by month's end.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run looks very similar with just the caveat that Easter could become rather cold and unsettled as slack Low pressure areas move into the UK with rain or showers at times and snow on hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show a bias of 65% to 35% in favour of maintaining High pressure in some sort of control of the UK weather in 14 days though within this group there i indecision on positioning of this feature. The other group of members show Low pressure from off the Atlantic regaining some control of the weather across the UK..

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure in control all of the coming week with the centre right over the top of the UK by the end of the week with fine and settled weather throughout. Varying amounts of cloud and sunshine will lead to day to day differences which also determines whether night frosts and fogs occur or not but no rain is expected anywhere this week 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data well but better illustrate the less straigthforward day to day differences might manifest as weak fronts bring a chill East wind and more cloud cover with perhaps a little drizzle across Southern areas for a time towards midweek or thereafter.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning looks very settled too over the next week or so as High pressure remains in complete control with just patchy frosts and cloud disrupting the early Spring look of things. Towards the end of the run High pressure weakens away east allowing some ingress of Atlantic fronts and patchy rain by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows complete High pressure domination across the UK now for the next week with the centre moving South across the UK late this week and next weekend allowing a weak West or SW flow to develop across the North by the end of next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today is looking very settled across the UK for most of the period with it's version of High pressure movements taking it to the West of the UK late in the period threatening a cold Northerly flow for a while in the second week with perhaps some showers near eastern coasts. However, it's just a keen breeze and cloud amounts in the South this coming week which could mar a fine settled period for otherwise for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart shows a High pressure ridge across Southern areas with growing support for a change at around the middle of the second week for Low pressure off the Atlantic to edge it's influence South across Northern Britain later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to show a protracted fine spell lasting for a week and possibly a lot more across the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.3 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 86.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.1 pts to 60.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 47.2 pts to 45.6 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  After a day away from the models I can see that there have been few changes to them since Friday with the unanimous version of today's report focusing on the persistence of the High pressure area now well developed near the UK. So we can all look forward to a protracted dry period with just the usual early Spring caveats of 'how much cloud and cold wind' is going to affect the South of the UK in particular as we enter midweek this week and possibly beyond. This if course will have a direct impact of the feel of things out and about and it may well feel quite raw for a time f cloud and the cold east wind coincide which currently looks as though they will. This of course leaves the NW with the best sunshine and probably highest temperatures this week as the High centre lies close by. Then as we move into the second week and towards the Easter holiday there are still no clear cut messages given apart from the fact that some output wants to maintain High pressure in one for or another right up to Easter and possible Easter itself although there is equally strong hints that Low pressure could make inroads back into the UK from off the Atlantic by then not forgetting also that a few members want to still put the UK under a cold Northerly for a time towards the Easter weekend with ECM looking on board with that theory today. However, all in all a decent spell of weather to come where drying ground will enable the early season ground preparation to take place though gardeners and growers would be well advised against putting tender plants etc out into the open for some considerable time yet as frosts at night remain a strong probability at times over the rest of the month. 

Next Update Monday March 14th 2016 from 09:00

[Banbury]

A cold end to March is on offer

[Eugene]

Yes nothing particularly warm on offer Banbury, feeling cold this morning with fog slow to clear, think many underestimated the coolness of the upcoming week with cool cloudy conditions dominating, looks a cool high not a warm one like in March 2012 with air sourced from polar regions rather than tropical.

[Nouska]

35 minutes ago, Banbury said:

A cold end to March is on offer

Looks like the ECM ensemble mean is offering much the same. The map doesn't quite extend to Birmingham but we can assume upper mean temps of between -2 to -4c extend further south.

Mean MSLP

[Frosty.]

Nice week + coming up..well it's already nice isn't it

High pressure domination for the foreseeable future, Atlantic lows held at bay and we can expect quiet conditions with variable cloud amounts and sunny spells, feeling chilly under persistent cloud, pleasantly warm in the sunshine and cold overnight where skies clear with frosts and fog.

[IDO]

39 minutes ago, Banbury said:

A cold end to March is on offer

Early days, but average to cool at the moment for us down south:

Certainly nothing "cold" if the mean is a guide. Looking at the latest JMA and they agree. No sign of any HLB showing up right out to week 4:

w2:   w3-4: 

Certainly no sign from the long range models of any cold in our Atlantic sector for the rest of March, though this may of course change. The Met update offer no hint of cold either. 

As for current temps and the forecast this week, lots of local variation, with west Wales likely to reach 13c today but those further east 7-8c. Which is typical in early Spring IMO. HP in charge at this time of year is a blessing and even though temps may be tempered good weather for most.

[Frosty.]

I agree with IDO, there is nothing cold showing on the GEFS 00z mean later in March, just average more unsettled conditions...in the meantime, a nice quiet settled spell for a change!

[Frank Trough]

1 hour ago, Eugene said:

Yes nothing particularly warm on offer Banbury, feeling cold this morning with fog slow to clear, think many underestimated the coolness of the upcoming week with cool cloudy conditions dominating, looks a cool high not a warm one like in March 2012 with air sourced from polar regions rather than tropical.

Away from eastern and southern coastal areas it looks like double figures on offer each day (going by GFS)? signifcantly warmer than that for northwestern parts. I don't know if that is cool for most? Seems to me like spring to be honest.

It's lovely out today. I'd get out and enjoy it rather than desperately searching for below average temperatures TBH.  There will be plenty of that from May onwards to "enjoy".

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op run shows a prolonged anticyclonic spell which lasts well into week 2, it then briefly becomes a bit more unsettled before high pressure builds back in and it becomes pleasantly warm for the time of year.

[knocker]

The ecm this morning does start the pattern change process next weekend when the strong HP cell over the UK weakens and retrogresses thus by the 23rd there is ridging mid Atlantic and the Canadian vortex enters stage left with a trough over NE N. America. This produces a NW flow over the UK with a chance of more unsettled weather in the north and temps around average. This edges the European trough closer to Scandinavia with Pressure building over Siberia.

The ext EPS continues with this theme with the American trough extended SE into the Atlantic by the 25th with the European trough over Scandinavia.  By the 28th the UK is back under the influence of a ridge with the the trough mid Atlantic thus backing the upper flow leaving the temps around average, perhaps a little below. The ever weakening trough to the east is now in Central Europe.

So to sum up it looks like being a pretty decent fourteen days certainly the first half with some quiet, dry weather. perhaps no raging temps which may generally be a little below average. Certainly as we get towards the end of the period the threat of any cold 'snap' looks nonexistent as there is no real cold air around.

 

[Gael_Force]

3 hours ago, Banbury said:

A cold end to March is on offer

Just to prove the futility of posting live updating links, the new run offers a swing of 10 degrees: from minus five to plus five.

[Scorcher]

A beautiful warm feeling day today here and I actually think the opposite to Eugene- that this coming week will see rather less cloud than is being predicted by the Met Office at the moment.

Once you get past mid March, fog also becomes less of a problem as the sun is now gaining enough strength to burn it off. Western and possibly central areas will do well this week for sun I believe. And many areas will easily reach double figures which will feel nice in any sunshine.

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Just to prove the futility of posting live updating links, the new run offers a swing of 10 degrees: from minus five to plus five.

As has already been said though, the GEFS 00z mean doesn't show a cold end to march, rather cool to average at worst. To be honest, if anyone is still trying to talk up the chances of significant cold weather occurring, it's just going to sound more and more ridiculous for that to happen at the end of March and first half of april and even though I'm a bitterly disappointed coldie with how winter turned out, I am looking forward to increasing spring warmth now the sun is getting higher and stronger with each passing day!

[Scorcher]

Another thing Eugene is overlooking is the fact that the growing strength of the sun means temperatures will rise in the day despite the fact that the airmass is not excessively warm. A month ago that may not have been the case.

Nobody said it was going to be anything like March 2012. I would be very surprised if a warm spell of that magnitude happened again in the next few years.