Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[Frosty.]

Nice to see snow making a comeback at the end of next week on the Gfs 12z run, like I said earlier, I love spring warmth and cold so it's a win win for me!..

[A.J]

7 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Not sure why there is now the hunt for cold grotty weather. Surely it would be be nice to see some nice warm weather?  Costing me a fortune to propagate plants to enjoy over the coming summer months .

I am happy with cold weather at the appropriate time but I am not such a sado that needs a wet snowflake now. 

Surely anything now would be so brief that you might blink and miss it. The rest of ithe winter has been like that for most. 

Yes try and plot what is coming but the models have been more than anything rather misleading 

S

this post is more suited to the moans/ramps thread to be honest.....This thread is for model discussion only, as long as posts are describing what the models are showing/might show on subsequent runs, then they are good to go.....thanks 

[knocker]

After our period of anticyclonic weather the GEFS is still running with the HP ridging NW into Iceland with the Atlantic trough edging east. Thus backing the upper flow SW and raising temps above average for a while. This eventually leads to ridging in mid Atlantic with a trough over the UK running south to Iberia with the main trough and colder air firmly locked over NE Europe. The result of this is to veer the  upper winds NW bringing cooler unsettled weather to these Isles although temps generally around average. I suspect the ecm will not agree.

Edited March 10, 2016 by knocker

[Cloud 10]

Much better looking block from the ECM at day 5,hasn't got the saggy a*** look of the GFS.

 

ecm..gfs..

[Guest]

My Latest Report Updated With March 10th 2016 Input:

The extraordinary uncertainty continues. The overnight runs from the main models and the 6z GFS seem to have swung away from showing significant HLB patterns in the 8 day+ outlook. Some models were not showing blocked patterns at all. There is still plenty of time for them to get to grips with the SSW and the possible impacts and they could just as easily swing back again.

Update: At the time of writing this report, the 12z runs are just starting to role out. GFS looks even more confused with a period of blocking, then less blocked patterns and then more again. They look quite good at T+192 and T+384. They rarely seem to be able to hold any pattern beyond 2 to 3 days! They have been the most varied of all the models in recent runs but they do have the longest forecasts right into the heart of the problematic 7 to 14 period. GEM are making a much better fist of it, with the 6 to 8 day charts going for at least the Siberian lobe if not Europe too - before back tracking slightly towards the end at day 10. UKMO T+144 are moving a lobe across to Siberia and a hint of HLB with the UK high extending up to Greenland. So, almost every outcome is still shown. One thing is becoming apparent, one of the models might be right!!!!

The ECM 12z is just out (1850, March 10th):  They are showing signs of joining the party at day 10 and starting to develop that lobe, albeit slightly east of Europe but things may develop from there.  

Reliabilty of Dr Judah Cohen’s Predictions:

A few of you (perhaps more than a few) seem to think that I am obsessed with Dr Judah Cohen’s predictions and you are probably right! I tried to find some verification statistics on his forecasts but my search has not been at all straight forward. He is highly respected in his main line of climatological research and his seasonal forecasts. The Washington Post published an interview they had with him last November. I quote this passage which is from one of the introductory paragraphs:  

…“Cohen, whose winter outlooks boast a 75 percent accuracy rate over the 15 years he’s issued them, has developed a model for predicting winter conditions that is strongly based on snowfall in Eurasia during October. When snow rapidly piles up in Eurasia at that time, it sets off a chain reaction that he says is linked to cold and often snowy conditions in the eastern U.S. during winter”…

The whole interview and further links regarding Judah Cohen can be found here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/24/innovating-forecaster-highlights-potential-for-very-snowy-winter-in-mid-atlantic-d-c/

A 75% accuracy rate from his 15 years of winter outlooks seems impressive. These forecasts are pretty broad in nature and are published during November each year. Being American, his forecasts have a central focus on the impacts on the North American continent but he does also include forecasts for Asia and Europe. His winter forecasts are based around his research and correlation with Eurasian snow cover in October but this is only part of it. He has also specialised in predicting the likelihood, timing and extent of stratospheric warming events and their impacts. He takes account of other factors and the various oscillation influences. This winter he has focussed on the very strong El Nino.

I have posted links on a number of occasions to his Arctic Oscillation reports. These are updated weekly and are much more specific in terms of likely synoptic patterns and the timing of weather impacts compared to his seasonal forecasts. I could not find verification statistics for his weekly predictions. Perhaps someone else reading this can help here.

More recently, Judah has been focussing on the current SSW event. Yes, on several occasions, he has put back the date of the anticipated tropospheric and surface impacts but he has only shifted this by around 2 to 3 weeks since January (currently expected by about March 20th). This delay could of course be very significant as we move further into the Spring season. Like everyone else, Judah admits that he has found the current combination of some very unusual or even unprecedented events extremely challenging. He says that “we are in unchartered territory”. Right or wrong, this winter has provided a huge learning curve for all the professionals, experts, analysts as well as for the computer models.

What I have been attempting to show in my reports, is to look to see if there are signs of Judah Cohen’s predictions and major pattern changes coming to fruition. Although he could be wrong, I feel that at least part of his forecast changes will occur. If they do not materialise in the next 2 to 3 weeks or at all, then I will stop reporting in this way. In the meantime, I will continue to focus on 2 aspects of his predictions. These are the initial movement of the polar vortex down into Europe and another into Siberia. The former to establish a cold pool in central and northern Europe and the latter the precursor to establishing a long fetch easterly from Siberia right through to the UK. If the European lobe fails or is too far east, we may not be able to access anything significantly cold. Whether the easterly blast makes it to our shores is also not certain and without the initial cold pool in Europe it might be highly modified. Whilst the models can show us possible synoptics and forecast pattern changes, I want to look at some of the factors likely to influence those pattern changes. I also want to see whether there can or will be sufficient cold to tap into from the high Arctic and then Siberia.

AO Ensemble Charts: 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

Rather more mixed again and perhaps in line with the problematic NOAA anomaly charts, being unable to arrive at a more decisive trend. 3 ensemble members remain positive but the others go back into negative territory, some quite sharply around March 17th to March 19th. So, showing some HLB but nothing exceptional (yet).

MJO Ensemble charts:

Here are todays MJO ensemble charts for the big 3 (now 4) and Kyle MacRitchie’s for March 9th. 

UKMO:   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ukme.shtml

ECM:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml

NCEP/GEFS:   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

JMA:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/jman.shtml

Kyle MacRitchie:  http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/

UKMO: has changed very little. They entered phase 2 yesterday but nudging the circle of death. They move steadily on to phase 3 at very lower amplitude with a few ensemble members entering the circle of death and some going for slightly higher amplitude as they move into phase 4.

ECM:  has, for a change, moved away from UKMO, especially later on. By around day 10, all ensemble members reach phase 5, with many at decent amplitude. Then they go through phases 5 and 6 but with a wide ensemble spread. Then after 2 weeks (March 24th) most members seem to stall there but several move on to phase 7 (at decent amplitude) and one almost makes it to phase 8.

NCEP/GEFS: continue to take quite a different view which is almost unchanged to yesterday’s forecast.  All the ensemble members have entered phase 2 today but mostly nudging the circle of death. Then most of them go into phase 3 within 2 days and then dive into the circle of death but the stalling there is very confused and may be brief. There is then a wide spread of outcomes with one ensemble member re-entering at phase 5, another to phase 6 but the rest rejoining in phase 7, 8 or 1 within 14 days but at quite low amplitude.

JMA: I have decided to add the JMA ensemble charts to these updates. After several days in phase 2 all the ensemble members stall in the circle of death. This is what GloSea5 showed 3 days ago – please can Fergie provide another update.

Kyle MacRitchie:  continues his consistently much more positive view. He is even more progressive and still retains good amplitude throughout. He shows the MJO still in mid phase 8 today and on into phase 1 around March 12th (slightly slower progression than yesterday) and then on to phase 2 around March 16th (as yesterday). All 4 of his ensemble members progress all the way though phases 3, 4, 5 and 6 between about March 20th to March 31st and on into the important phase 7 around April 4th and  then on to phase 8 around April 10th at very high amplitude.

I still wonder if Kyle MacRitchie is on to something or is he completely wrong, continuing to defy the big 4 and GloSea5? I have spent some time trying to find good verification statistics for comparing the big 4 to Kyle but this search has proved fruitless so far. Please can a fellow poster point me in the right direction – if there is one!. 

Current Arctic Temperatures:

GFS – Northern Hemisphere Current Temperatures:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=9&carte=1

The link to this chart updates 6 hourly with each GFS run. At the time of writing it is showing a chart for 1900 today (Tuesday, 10th March***). As this is T0 to T6 hours, it should be pretty accurate. In the Arctic, temperatures around the North Pole are around  -32c. In “our” part of the high Arctic (around the Barents Sea) temperatures are much higher – around 0c to -8c. Most of Scandinavia is around -4c to -12c and much of northern Siberia is currently -28c to -40c.

*** Please note:   At the time of posting this link it was showing 1900 on Thursday, March 10th. The charts are automatically updated 4 times a day, so the temperatures shown will be different to those I just mentioned above. We can follow the trends by looking at the latest data at any time from now on. It is vital to note the time of day to take account of daytime/nighttime variations. So for like for like comparisons, for example the 1900 charts for each day should be available to view from the 12z (T+6) updates which are published around 1600 or about 4 hours later. This also applies to some of the other charts I link to in this post.

Svalbard Temperature Forecast:

Having updated my Svalbard post from last week only yesterday, I was intending to leave the next update for several more days but with much colder conditions forecast for later next week I decided to include these again now. Here are the links.

Central Svalbard – Longyearbyen 28 m asl:   

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/forecast.pdf

March 13th  -0c;   March 16th  -8c;    March 19th  -12c.

West Svalbard – Ny-Alesund:                                                            

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Ny-%C3%85lesund/forecast.pdf

March 13th  +2c;   March 16th  -12c;    March 19th  -16c.

South Svalbard – Sveagruva:                                          

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Sveagruva/forecast.pdf

March 13th  -1c;   March 16th  -10c;    March 19th  -18c.

The overall trend remains strongly downwards.

These links will update automatically several times a day. They are the Norway met office’s predictions. We need to be aware that these are only a forecast that is subject to change and I am told that the Arctic surface temperature forecasts are not completely reliable even at short range. 

To put the above figures into context, here is a link to the main Longyearbyen site:  

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

This shows monthly means, and actual highest/lowest temperatures recorded during this winter and goes back further. Apart from a couple of days in December, Svalbard is likely to see temperatures falling to average and then below, for the first time since Winter 2014/15

Final Comment:

Overall today, it is difficult to say whether we are trending colder or not. So far, some of the latest models look to be going for more mid-term HLB with a possible European lobe developing and a more definite Siberian lobe.  The forecast Svalbard temperatures are indicating some very cold air shifting into that part of the Arctic our side of the North Pole. So, some of the signs are there. Impossible to say in which direction we will go from here. It remains very exciting to follow all of this. More tomorrow.

Edited March 10, 2016 by Guest
improve links and spelling

[feb1991blizzard]

24 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Much better looking block from the ECM at day 5,hasn't got the saggy a*** look of the GFS.

 

ecm..gfs..

Neither of them will go on to deliver a biting N'ly or NE'ly with massive lake / sea effect snow though so in fact at least the GFS is a bit colder for the S than the ECM.

[Frosty.]

Anyone who likes settled weather will be pleased with the Ecm 12z run because it becomes anticyclonic and stays that way until T+240. As for sunshine, we would all get some and in the sunny spells it would feel pleasant enough in the strengthening March sun, nights are still likely to be chilly, especially where skies clear...at the risk of being criticized again, it looks a good run to me and the most settled spell for a long time is just around the corner!

Edited March 10, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

As it turns out the ecm day ten isn't much different to the GEFS. with HP ridging into Iceland and LP to the SW bringing a SW flow briefly over the UK with some quite warm temps. It does vary a bit with the evolution moving into ext EPS country with no heights ridging into Greenland but an old friend the Canadian vortex making an encore with a trough running SE into mid Atlantic bringing about a westerly upper flow and some unsettled weather but temps around average. The European Trough remains in NE and a little weaker and less cold.

Edited March 10, 2016 by knocker

[Weather Observer]

March is the month when the weather pendulum can swing the most, hence the old adage about the lion and the lamb. Looking at the models you might think that there is very little weather action in the offing. But possibly there is so much that the models cannot get a handle on it. Hence even more weird looking  spaghetti charts than usual and the latest ensemble means showing even more paltry than usual pressure gradients in the latter part of their runs. 

Is this pathetic winter about to get up off the floor, take a sneaky swig of SSW and deliver one knockout blow, or if not, can the models finish it off now please.?

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Slither of -6c over some of the country, dry but at least it wont be sultry if that run is to be believed.

 

I knew earlier in the week that it was going to be that Atlantic trough that was going to scupper UK cold and unfortunately it looks like I'm right, well done to knocker and the others that predicted mild, looks like this one is going to go wrong yet, not quite ready to towel throw yet because there is still some GEFS going cold but not many, we really need a good ECM 32 dayer.

 

 

 

Edited March 10, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[fergieweather]

Just a single set of clusters further into medium range in 12z EC-EPS. The latest EC Monthly, meanwhile, retains largely weak or insignificant anomalies for temperatures into this latter part of March but then leans more towards -ve anomalies (esp to NW/W) by end of 1st week April, whilst hinting at +ve MSLP rises by then to NW/N.

[feb1991blizzard]

16 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Just a single set of clusters further into medium range in 12z EC-EPS. The latest EC Monthly, meanwhile, retains largely weak or insignificant anomalies for temperatures into this latter part of March but then leans more towards -ve anomalies (esp to NW/W) by end of 1st week April, whilst hinting at +ve MSLP rises by then to NW/N.

Ian, is that going to offer some steer on the 15-30 dayer do you think? Met Office are still mentioning wild swings in temps and weather type that could be lengthy spells, do you think they will change this soon?, my bet is that they will.

[DR(S)NO]

4 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Anyone who likes settled weather will be pleased with the Ecm 12z run because it becomes anticyclonic and stays that way until T+240. As for sunshine, we would all get some and in the sunny spells it would feel pleasant enough in the strengthening March sun, nights are still likely to be chilly, especially where skies clear...at the risk of being criticized again, it looks a good run to me and the most settled spell for a long time is just around the corner!

Hey Frosty, model runs are open to anyone's individual interpretation...only once the time period has passed can it be viewed as right or wrong . I, for one, enjoy reading your views which always appear to be an honest assessment of the information available at the time.

I pay no attention whatever to anybody's praise or blame. I simply follow my own feelings.” 
― Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart

[feb1991blizzard]

Well well well, a big swing on the 18z GEFS towards cold, I don't believe it for one minute after Fergie's post but it is a significant cluster none the less and I wasn't expecting it.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=231.63999938964844&y=40.459999084472656

[Banbury]

Very unlikely but decent eye candy

[Frosty.]

7 hours ago, DR(S)NO said:

Hey Frosty, model runs are open to anyone's individual interpretation...only once the time period has passed can it be viewed as right or wrong . I, for one, enjoy reading your views which always appear to be an honest assessment of the information available at the time.

I pay no attention whatever to anybody's praise or blame. I simply follow my own feelings.” 
― Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart

Thanks DR(S)NO

Much appreciated

[knocker]

Nothing to add really about the next ten days that is not already known. The ecm det is dominated by HP so a quiet spell of weather with perhaps temps a little suppressed in the southern half of Britain. Much of course depends on the precise orientation of the HP cell vis regional cloud and temps.

[Frosty.]

It's a very decent outlook as we go through this weekend and next week with high pressure building in and becoming centred over the uk, initially, some rain spilling in from the Atlantic across the northern half of the uk on Saturday but fine with sunny spells in the south, then from Sunday onwards it looks largely dry with variable cloud and sunny spells, feeling pleasant in the strengthening March sunshine. Nights on the chilly side, especially where skies clear there would be frosts and fog patches forming...so,  settled at last, makes a nice change!

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY MAR 11TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  A strong ridge of High pressure lies across the UK as it continues to build further, killing the remains of the weak trough across Central UK. However weak fronts on a mild SW flow will bring some light rainfall to the NW at times. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will rise over the next few days especially to lie around 5000ft across Southern and Eastern UK and to 7000ft across the NW. As a result no snowfall is expected anywhere across the UK over the next few days.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming less cold and mostly dry with some sunshine by day and frost at night. Perhaps becoming less settled again later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is now blowing North over the Atlantic to Iceland where it remains for several days. As we move through next week a deep trough across the Atlantic sets up a Southern arm which then becomes the main arm as it migrates slowly North to lie on a West to East axis across the UK. In the second week a split flow seems likely with one arm to the South and one to the North of the UK. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of High pressure near to the UK over the next few weeks so a dry spell for many to come. The High pressure zone will lie to the East or NE at firtst with a light Easterly flow developing before it veers slowly towards the South as the High slips away to the SE. Then through the second week with slack pressure some rain is possible for a time before new High pressure develops to the NW and delivers another dry spell but possibly a rather cold Easter in winds and air across the UK from a chilly source to the North and NE.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very much the same as the Operational Run today with a greater emphasis on the cold developing across the UK towards the Easter break perhaps with some wintry showers in places and certainly frosts at night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show a bias towards Atlantic Low pressure in control to the North or NW across the UK in 14 days time. It does go against the theme of the Operational and Control Runs today though with just a 30% cache of members showing something akin to those runs.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows sustained High pressure building across the UK over the weekend and through the early part of next week as it drifts slowly North across the East of the UK and starts to recede away to the NW later next week. Dry and bright for much of the time with respectable day temperatures but some chilly and frosty nights should skies clear. Signs of chillier air then is hinted at Day 6 coming down from the North or NE. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data well with fine and settled weather dominating across the UK as High pressure takes complete control of the weather for all once the weak troughs in the NW at the weekend move away West.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning keeps the UK locked under High pressure centred close to or for most of the time over the UK with fine and at times sunny weather though with frosts at night. With light winds and reasonable uppers March sunshine should lift daytime temperatures to average if not a bit above whereas frosts at night are likely too. At the end of the 10 day period pressure is shown to lie just to the West of the UK with a slack Northerly across the UK maintaining mostly fine weather for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows complete High pressure domination across the UK now for the next week and probably more as the High drifts and wobbles around the vicinity of the UK next week eventually displacing any mild and damp SW winds across the NW at first.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today is looking very settled across the UK for the foreseeable future with High pressure in total control gradually positioning near to the North of the UK from early next week and feeding a gentle dry Easterly flow across the UK with the situation looking virtually unchanged by Day 10

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart this morning shows some indecision in it's 10 Day chart. On the face of it there is a slack Westerly flow shown between Low pressure well to the North of the UK and High pressure still influential to the South. The operational is supported though within it's ensemble group but with some mebers showing something much more unsettled and therefore somewhat diffusing the end chart's authenticity today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to show a protracted fine spell lasting for a week and possibly a lot more across the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.1 pts to UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 86.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.4 pts to 61.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 47.5 pts to 46.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The charts this morning could look a lot worse and if it's fine and settled weather which lasts for a considerable while you seek then your in luck this morning as there looks very chance of any significant rainfall across the UK for at least 10 days and probably more. We still have to remove the milder and damper SW flow afflicting the NW for a few more days before High pressure completes it's job in extending influence to all areas from Sunday. What is less clear is how much of this High pressure is going to deliver in the way of cloud as it is only March and like Winter anticyclones this one could well give rise to some quite cloudy days and as a result a little bit disappointing and cool. However, that's the only negative in an otherwise very useable period with the added daylight hours now helping to offset any cloudiness and coolness. Some sunshine will inevitably occur at times and where it does it will feel very pleasant but those same clear daytime skies could translate into clear night one's giving rise to frost in places. Then looking into the distant reaches of this morning's output GFS continues to want to bring cold and potentially a little wintry conditions towards Easter as a cold plunge looks likely across Europe. However, ECM and some of the rest prefer to keep this plunge harmlessly away over Central and Eastern Europe with High pressure remaining close by for us and I feel this is more likely making Easter a useable one if not a record breaking one. However, in model runs terms that remains an occean away for now and in the meantime let's all enjoy some very pleasant early Spring conditions in the next few weeks when we may continue to need a coat but hopefully it will just be used to keep out a chill rather than rain. A day off from the models from me tomorrow but will return on Sunday.

Next Update Sunday March 13th 2016 from 09:00 

[knocker]

The ecm day ten anomaly this morning shows the UK HP cell weakening and ridging NW into Iceland, the deep trough in situ in NE Europe and the Canadian vortex girding it's loins. Thus by this stage we are in a westerly flow with average temps.

By the end of the ext EPS the high pressure is no more and with a trough running SE from Canada and a weakening of the NE trough a general area of lowish pressure sets up over the Atlantic and N. Europe with a westerly upper flow which would herald more unsettled conditions for the uk with temps possible a tad below normal.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks rock solid anticyclonic until towards the end when cracks start to appear but for those of us looking forward to a benign settled period with variable cloud and pleasantly warm sunny spells with light winds, the next 7-10 days are looking good.

 

Edited March 11, 2016 by Frosty.

[John Badrick]

43 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks rock solid anticyclonic until towards the end when cracks start to appear but for those of us looking forward to a benign settled period with variable cloud and pleasantly warm sunny spells with light winds, the next 7-10 days are looking good.

 

Yay, can't wait for the most boring type of weather ever, 10 degrees with cloud fills me with joy!!!

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

Yay, can't wait for the most boring type of weather ever, 10 degrees with cloud fills me with joy!!!

I made a mistake and my quote has ended up in this box and I can't change it..just wanted to say again how good it is we are heading into a more settled period, we will all see some sunshine, and that Sun will feel pleasant as we are nearly in mid March, it's not all doom and gloom as John Badrick says!

 

[Frosty.]

Latest from the experts sounds great, settled conditions becoming dominant, with frosty and sometimes foggy nights for many followed by warm days with sunny periods. Looking beyond 3-5 days, staying largely dry and settled for all areas as high pressure continues to dominate, variable amounts of cloud but in the sunny spells it will feel pleasantly warm and spring like but with fairly widespread night frosts and patchy fog. This is a broad brush approach and of course there will be regional variations with some areas seeing more sunshine than others, the SE for example could pick up more of an Easterly breeze with cooler temps and more cloud but for a large area of the uk it looks better than anything we have seen for months and I think the Ecm 00z is a good representation of how the met office are seeing things for the next couple of weeks or so.

 

 

Edited March 11, 2016 by Frosty.

[John Badrick]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Latest from the experts sounds great, settled conditions becoming dominant, with frosty and sometimes foggy nights for many followed by warm days with sunny periods. Looking beyond 3-5 days, staying largely dry and settled for all areas as high pressure continues to dominate, variable amounts of cloud but in the sunny spells it will feel pleasantly warm and spring like but with fairly widespread night frosts and patchy fog. I think the Ecm 00z is a good representation of how the met office are seeing things for the next couple of weeks or so.

So the complete opposite to what we all thought the effects of the SSW would bring