Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[Banbury]

5 minutes ago, swilliam said:

Yes those looking for warmer weather next weekend will be disappointed with this -similar at 144 to UKMO though.

 

Looks as though warmth could be shorth lived

[Gowon]

If we get any warmth at all, Banbury. It's my birthday next week so hopefully it does warm up for a little while.

[TomDav]

Does anybody know what the NOAA prognostic discussion means when a model is 'Centered on Day 11'? I assume it is the avg for that day instead of the 8-14 day period?

And just to check the GFS Superensemble is the NAEFS ?

[nick sussex]

The ECM develops a block and looks like it might retrogress the pattern with the PV lobe dropping se towards Scandi after day ten.

A long way off and to be honest I'm beginning to lose interest unless some deeper cold gets injected into the set up.

The ECM would have a lot more interest in mid winter and its like we're turning up to the party as the guests are leaving.

[phil nw.]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM develops a block and looks like it might retrogress the pattern with the PV lobe dropping se towards Scandi after day ten.

A long way off and to be honest I'm beginning to lose interest unless some deeper cold gets injected into the set up.

The ECM would have a lot more interest in mid winter and its like we're turning up to the party as the guests are leaving.

Yes it's getting to that time of year when the continental cooling ends by day and we need an injection of much deeper cold than shown on that ECM run Nick.It would feel cold and raw and probably be quite cloudy but i think if that's all we will get then i think i would rather the GFS warm up.

 

[mushymanrob]

39 minutes ago, swilliam said:

Yes those looking for warmer weather next weekend will be disappointed with this -similar at 144 to UKMO though.

 

when the anomaly charts show a large scandinavian high - ill start to believe it, until then, this suggested option isnt likely to become reality.

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Looks like the Northern blocking starting to take shape in the models....No mild in the ECM...hoping for a white Easter an cooler all through April...

Me too Greenland

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes it's getting to that time of year when the continental cooling ends by day and we need an injection of much deeper cold than shown on that ECM run Nick.It would feel cold and raw and probably be quite cloudy but i think if that's all we will get then i think i would rather the GFS warm up.

 

The last few weeks has been a case of if only earlier in the winter and the ECM adds insult to injury with tonights output!

Of course I would accept the ECM T240hrs if it was at T24hrs as the last spin of the roulette wheel because it could retrogress and drop the PV south to the east which could get pulled sw but its a long way to T240hrs.

Unless the models quickly do this then I'd rather we just lost these good in mid winter synoptics but underwhelming in spring set ups.

[Guest]

Before I get on to completely model related comments, I feel that the following must be stated. Fergie has come in for some very unfair criticism from a few posters today. I was out today but judging by the post by “Phil NW” it seems that moderators have been busy removing some unsavoury comments. Let me speak for the majority on here who follow this thread and say that it really would not and should not be necessary for the moderators to have to deal with this in the first place. If those offending posters were a little more considerate and respectful it would help stop annoying the rest of us. It would seem that some of the comments would not even be appropriate on the moan thread.

In full defence of Ian, no one should shoot the messenger. Fergie and some other professionals do not “need” to take time out of their busy schedules to post on this thread at all. Their comments, insight and charts based on their sophisticated computer models are invaluable and this is greatly appreciated by the majority of us. It really does add an extra dimension to the plethora of data and analysis that appears on this “model discussion” thread and it helps to generate a lot of additional analysis and comments from the rest of us.

I am not at all surprised to see significant changes in the possible outlook for the next 6 weeks. Those who have read any of my modest number of posts will have seen that I am a “coldie” and I would be as disappointed as anyone if we do not get any really “exciting” weather during the coming weeks – although I still passionately believe the “unexpected” will happen! Regular visitors to this thread will know just how unusual and complex the current period is with “all” the models having to cope with huge uncertainties almost unparalleled in recent times, perhaps ever! This is the combination of impacts and how they interplay with each other from the mature El Nino, the current SSW, the negative AO and the MJO in phase 8 as well as the seasonal changes and increasing solar output. If one of the most respected and reliable models like GloSea5 is starting to struggle, surely this is an indication of just how unusual the weather patterns and set-up are right now. I imagine that Ian is obliged to restrict most of his comments to those shown on the latest computer analysis, following discussions with his colleagues.

SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT:

My take on the SSW which is currently underway is that this is the main event and will be a big one, if not a record breaking one. I like Judah Cohen’s (please refer to my earlier posts for much more on him and his predictions) comment that we have actually been in a prolonged period of stratospheric disturbances since early February. It started with a minor warming event which quickly fizzled out and there have been a number of warming periods or “multiple” warming events since then. This is now the peak event and, as we can see on the strat charts, there are likely to be further pulses of warming and waning during the next few weeks going into April. I am sure that there will be significant impacts on the broader patterns but, as we are told by the experts, a late Winter or early Spring SSW is much less likely to produce significant prolonged cold compared to a mid or early winter event.

MJO:

Right, now to what I really intended to post this evening. After a slight improvement in the MJO output from most of the main models yesterday, today’s output is slightly disappointing. There is still a reasonable period in Phase 8 from most of each of the main model ensembles. Yet again Kyle MacRitchie retains a more bullish outlook. The huge uncertainty continues.

MJO Ensemble charts:

UKMO: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ukme.shtml

ECM:   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml

NCEP/GEFS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

Kyle MacRitchie: http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/

AO:

The AO is likely to continue trending negative but more (but not all) of the ensembles in today’s charts take it back to a neutral or positive state before mid-March.

 AO Ensemble Charts: 

CPC/NOAA: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

The changes in both the MJO and AO appear to me to highlight the current uncertainties. I always read with interest Singularity’s and Nick Sussex’s (and others) comments on these charts. I would like to see the bullishness of Kyle MacRitchie and Judah Cohen reflected in the charts quite soon with a corresponding much greater emphasis on HLB. I feel as some other posters do, that the pattern and set-up will undergo some very rapid changes. Even if we do get that very mild or warm interlude later next week, I feel that a colder pattern will return. I am looking forward to Judah Cohen’s latest analysis and I will post a link to his next AO report when it comes out later on Monday, March 7th. I will give my take on this.

Edited March 4, 2016 by Guest
Grammar, spelling, missing words

[karyo]

39 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM develops a block and looks like it might retrogress the pattern with the PV lobe dropping se towards Scandi after day ten.

A long way off and to be honest I'm beginning to lose interest unless some deeper cold gets injected into the set up.

The ECM would have a lot more interest in mid winter and its like we're turning up to the party as the guests are leaving.

The last dance can be the best!

Today was a very pleasant surprise for me with several hours of rather heavy settling snow. Much better than the last 3 winters produced!

Anyway, I was getting rather underwhelmed with the gfs but the ECM is a step in the right direction.

[Singularity]

What a game we play - I was just starting to come around to the idea that a warmer, more settled spell might serve as the transitory period to the high latitude blocking spell (regardless of exactly where the HLB set up), with the amplification in the Atlantic not occurring as far west as you'd expect given the MJO activity in phase 8, and then along came the ECM 12z run to cast considerable doubt on that idea.

If I'd had time to check what the MJO got up to yesterday compared to the model output, I might have anticipated this run to some extent; remember how they were showing a steady decline starting today? Well...

There's actually been very little movement at all according to this measure. It's almost as if the central-based positive SST anomalies in the Pacific have snared the convective system.

This is the second day in a row in which the MJO has held on to amplification in the face of the models. Even GloSea5 showed a little decline taking place. The impact should be a sharper ridge in the Atlantic next week, with the jet moving north further west than the GFS 12z run shows. That's a shame really, as I'd enjoy a few days of mid (or even high) teens maximums and light winds.

Not a done deal yet of course, but what with the SSW looking to send the AO climbing, I wouldn't be surprised to see height rises to the NE and N escalating quite rapidly in the output for mid-month.

Ah BB62-63 beat me to it with the MJO tonight! Another epic post on his part, I must say 

[nick sussex]

16 minutes ago, karyo said:

The last dance can be the best!

Today was a very pleasant surprise for me with several hours of rather heavy settling snow. Much better than the last 3 winters produced!

Anyway, I was getting rather underwhelmed with the gfs but the ECM is a step in the right direction.

 I've often wondered how good the models are at anticipating a zonal wind reversal before its actually happened in terms of the trop response.

Perhaps tonights ECM is picking up a quicker trop response or its just having a laugh! It will take a lot to raise my interest this late into the season, so we need to see the PV dropping towards Scandi/west Russia and blasting some deep cold sw into western Europe.

If not then I'd like to see some drier and warmer conditions, we need a quick trop response to the SSW and not a long drawn out drama!

Edited March 4, 2016 by nick sussex

[Singularity]

In the end it's hard to ignore the fact that the focus for reversed zonality does look to be from central/eastern Asia right across to the UK, which is just about the only configuration that could bring us deeply cold continental air in the middle of this month. What a feat that would be, in the face of so much anomalous warmth across Europe in recent times.

Alarming, really, having been out into the countryside at lunch today and observed some very tiny lambs tottering about already.

[Guest]

30 minutes ago, Singularity said:

What a game we play - I was just starting to come around to the idea that a warmer, more settled spell might serve as the transitory period to the high latitude blocking spell (regardless of exactly where the HLB set up), with the amplification in the Atlantic not occurring as far west as you'd expect given the MJO activity in phase 8, and then along came the ECM 12z run to cast considerable doubt on that idea.

If I'd had time to check what the MJO got up to yesterday compared to the model output, I might have anticipated this run to some extent; remember how they were showing a steady decline starting today? Well...

There's actually been very little movement at all according to this measure. It's almost as if the central-based positive SST anomalies in the Pacific have snared the convective system.

This is the second day in a row in which the MJO has held on to amplification in the face of the models. Even GloSea5 showed a little decline taking place. The impact should be a sharper ridge in the Atlantic next week, with the jet moving north further west than the GFS 12z run shows. That's a shame really, as I'd enjoy a few days of mid (or even high) teens maximums and light winds.

Not a done deal yet of course, but what with the SSW looking to send the AO climbing, I wouldn't be surprised to see height rises to the NE and N escalating quite rapidly in the output for mid-month.

Ah BB62-63 beat me to it with the MJO tonight! Another epic post on his part, I must say 

Hello Singularity. I do not see it as a competition and I am sure you don't either! I always bow to your far greater experience and insight with your great analysis. I would not post the same charts as you. Your charts show all the models' op runs and is extremely useful for an easy comparison whilst I have been showing the "ensembles" from the big 3. What is your opinion on Kyle MacRitchie and his modified charts after making allowances for ENSO and other factors? If you, or anyone else, do not rate his work and charts, then perhaps I should stop posting them as I would not wish to mislead anyone. Anyway, keep up the great work - you are a real credit to this thread.

Edited March 4, 2016 by Guest

[knocker]

The three 6-10 anomaly charts are all still on the same page. Canadian vortex and trough mid Atlantic with hP pushing from the south over the UK. Ergo the upper flow from a westerly quadrant. The precise location of the surface HP will tend to dictate to some extent the weather over the UK but generally looking more settled and drier but certainly room for systems to swing in from the Atlantic bringing the odd wet and windy interlude, more particularly to the north. Temps rising to near average and quite possibly above in England and Wales.

The 10-15 period sees the transition (as noted in previous post) with the Siberian vortex becoming prominent with associated trough down through eastern Europe but ridging still residing over the UK or in the vacinity the flow remains in the westerly quadrant bringing periods of unsettled weather, again more likely in the north with temps around average or above.

There is no obvious sign of any cold pool appearing over the UK unless the upper trough retrogresses significantly and even then one wonders how cold it would be.

Edited March 4, 2016 by knocker

[Singularity]

18 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

Hello Singularity. I do not see it as a competition and I am sure you don't either! I always bow to your far greater experience and insight with your great analysis. I would not post the same charts as you. Your charts show all the models' op runs and is extremely useful for an easy comparison whilst I have been showing the "ensembles" from the big 3. What is your opinion on Kyle MacRitchie and his modified charts after making allowances for ENSO and other factors? If you, or anyone else, do not rate his work and charts, then perhaps I should stop posting them as I would not wish to mislead anyone. Anyway, keep up the great work - you are a real credit to this thread.

Hi BB62-63, (by the way a re-run of that winter would be something else!), your right I don't see it that way, 'beat me to it' is a turn of phrase really.

To be honest I would need to read up on KM's methodology before I could properly comprehend his plots - they characterise the MJO differently in terms of what phase it is in. I can, though, see a case for the MJO to retain amplification through to phase 1, perhaps even heading on into phase 2/3 as it responds to the unusually warm Indian Ocean. Funnily enough the same thing happened in 1988 which is a year that some have flagged up for the fact that it too had a SSW in mid-March.

So they are worth continuing to post, in my opinion. I am enjoying reading your take on matters - it's good to see someone with enough time and enthusiasm on their hands to go into that level of detail each time 

[Nouska]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

There is no obvious sign of any cold pool appearing over the UK unless the upper trough retrogresses significantly and even then one wonders how cold it would be.

I'm not enamoured with the MJO projection from the ECM - phase 4 is not a good look for early spring! 

Irrespective of the SSW and the possibility of retrogressing air masses, the future may be more trough dominated than these charts are currently showing.

[mushymanrob]

30 minutes ago, knocker said:

The three 6-10 anomaly charts are all still on the same page. Canadian vortex and trough mid Atlantic with hP pushing from the south over the UK. Ergo the upper flow from a westerly quadrant. The precise location of the surface HP will tend to dictate to some extent the weather over the UK but generally looking more settled and drier but certainly room for systems to swing in from the Atlantic bringing the odd wet and windy interlude, more particularly to the north. Temps rising to near average and quite possibly above in England and Wales.

The 10-15 period sees the transition (as noted in previous post) with the Siberian vortex becoming prominent with associated trough down through eastern Europe but ridging still residing over the UK or in the vacinity the flow remains in the westerly quadrant bringing periods of unsettled weather, again more likely in the north with temps around average or above.

There is no obvious sign of any cold pool appearing over the UK unless the upper trough retrogresses significantly and even then one wonders how cold it would be.

spot on knocks... no scandi high on these charts, the ecm is highly unlikely to have spotted a trend the anoms have missed. the azores high looks very likely to be close to us, and the outlook must be good for those of us wanting an end to this awful 'no win' coldish spell. agreeing fully with captain shortwaves post in 'ramps/moans'.

[knocker]

51 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

spot on knocks... no scandi high on these charts, the ecm is highly unlikely to have spotted a trend the anoms have missed. the azores high looks very likely to be close to us, and the outlook must be good for those of us wanting an end to this awful 'no win' coldish spell. agreeing fully with captain shortwaves post in 'ramps/moans'.

The EPS T360 850mb flow chart (along with the 500mb anomaly) has the HP pushing up mid Atlantic giving a flow just north of west over the UK with 850 temps around 0 -2C. The trough is way to the east.

Edited March 4, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

The EPS T360

T+360...seriously?

Are you havin a laff

P.S...it's nice to see the mutual admiration society in this thread tonight....keep it up gang! 

[knocker]

19 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

T+360...seriously?

Are you havin a laff

P.S...it's nice to see the mutual admiration society in this thread tonight....keep it up gang! 

It's supposed to be taken in the context of my previous post Frosty.

I forgot to add I wasn't taking into account Mars being in a retrograde orbit.

Edited March 4, 2016 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens

      

 

This suggests a ridge building NNE through Iberia and NW Europe, more in line with the other models rather than the ECM operational which develops a lower height anomaly over central/southern Europe.

More in line with the GFS 18z coming out now.

   

Again turning drier and milder (potentially warm). Still the chance of something colder developing later on if heights can get further north and more importantly can get undercut by cold air from the west and east.

[Frosty.]

Just now, knocker said:

It's supposed to be taken in the context of my previous post Frosty.

It was just good natured banter knocker, I wasn't knocking you or anything. I have enjoyed reading this thread tonight with peope being extra nice to each other..much better than bickering!..and i had snow today

[Singularity]

Ignore those height rises in the Svalbard area at your peril... the ECM ensembles and NOAA analysis show good support for that (despite the large variance in the former, which arguably makes the mean charts poorer than usual guidance for the time being) and it can draw up a Euro High to the high latitudes really quite suddenly if there is upstream amplification - which there really should be going by the MJO behaviour.

I am wary of taking these fine, springlike chances seriously right now - we've seen a few supposed shifts north of the jet turn out to be red herrings these past two months and as a result I figure this needs another 1-3 days of model runs before we can be confident in things going one way or the other.

Believe me, after another dose of sleety rubbish I'm as keen to be shot of winter as anyone - but I just can't quite bring myself to believe it in the face of what the global teleconnections are suggesting. If ever I've hoped to get it wrong...! 

[Man With Beard]

A fascinating period coming up I feel. Firstly, most models agreeing upon the sudden onset of spring next week, with even 20C not off the table.

But then after, well, I'm drawn to those of runs that throw Eastern Europe into their coldest spell of the whole season mid-month, with uppers between -10C and -16C.

And at the same time, an SSW which might just lend itself to a "Svalbard block". (Stress: MIGHT)

We're even seeing southerly tracking lows heading towards this cold pool on some GFS runs.

Reminds me a bit of April 1989 -basking in mid 60s over the Easter weekend, but 5 days later, 3 inches of snow on the ground (the only snow of the year in the SE).

It's all about getting that cold pool into Eastern Europe between D6 and D10. If it does, don't write off a wintry shock after any mid-month warm up. If it doesn't, probably game over for snow.