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Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

I dont know why everyone is downbeat, whilst we wait for the pieces of the puzzle to move into place viz a viz the SSW we have some stunning charts to mull over:

 

gfs-2-138.thumb.png.1d0673da230a3ef3bbd6 D8: gfs-15-192.thumb.png.96f0c97e2541e792bc2 D10:gfs-15-240.thumb.png.27848c7c831457701e4

Who could moan about that?

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
5 minutes ago, IDO said:

I dont know why everyone is downbeat, whilst we wait for the pieces of the puzzle to move into place viz a viz the SSW we have some stunning charts to mull over:

 

gfs-2-138.thumb.png.1d0673da230a3ef3bbd6gfs-15-192.thumb.png.96f0c97e2541e792bc2gfs-15-204.thumb.png.40a5fb57bf59d884b62

Who could moan about that?

A few days before we notice the change though but by mid-week probably double figure max's further south but up north still quite cold for a while.

It looks like it will be a week with the jet gradually moving north so rather unsettled across the UK.with rain bands moving through.

56d9bb890b3da_viewimage(5).thumb.png.f2856d9bb95dd5e0_viewimage(6).thumb.png.4d1

with the milder air taking most of the week before it spreads to the far north.

It will interesting to see if this trend of building the high into the near continent in week 2 continues as this will really warm things up by mid-month and with a southerly flow mid to high teens max's is quite likely.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Again like yesterday whilst there are signals for a blocked pattern to develop, I cannot deny that I am being tempted by charts offering prolonged spells of sunshine and temperatures in the mid or even high teens by the middle of the month.

gfs-0-240.png?12

 

GEM goes for a full blown UK high

gem-0-240.png?12

 

Both offer a lot of fine and pleasant weather, I suspect the GEM solution would offer colder nights with the risk of frost under light and variable winds.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
21 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

That's what I would expect to happen .

 I computer can correctly guess the outcome but going by experience I would say lots of Northern blocking to come and a cold second half of March.  Or at least Europe as a whole going cold.  It's only to expect ramifications once the warming begins to downwell.

We may well see the WAA traverse up through UK as showing from a cross range of models.image.thumb.jpg.0e37d88accdafc71819dd3d9Hence a windy warm blast of Spring showing.

Can't see GLOSEA5 charts but the MJO current charts have me feeling more confident.image.thumb.jpg.e2e0441791c6f52c4d1573d6

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, fergieweather said:

No, this is expected to be the final warming. Given latest GloSea and EC Monthly output, signals for anything cold are now looking much less bullish later in the month, with little discernable temperature anomaly in either suite (refer to my post last night re EC prognosis). However, expert view from UKMO Seasonal Team is that the SSW (and in part, MJO) continue to favour onset of a more blocked regime later in the month, albeit they stress net result of final warmings can be variable (as can timing of lagged response at SFC). The critical point however, as alluded to in posts yesterday, is that even if such a regime establishes it may *not* actually usher-in colder than average conditions, not least due to the time of year but equally due to uncertain broadscale positioning/flow.

Thus, forecast emphasis has shifted to mention chance of drier, settled weather both mid and again later this month, but no strong signal currently for anything in the way of pronounced cold. That doesn't dismiss the possibility: it merely reflects the 'null signal' for temperature anomalies emerging in both of the main longer range products.  Meanwhile, the milder phase into mid-month has been well signalled for a few days now and will be a pleasant, spring-like change from the current chillier weather.

Yes to be honest I never saw any compelling evidence that it would be anything other than the final warming, regarding the outcome weather wise, its very dependant on orientation and minute detail of any blocking at this time where as earlier in winter if the broadscale pattern was favourable re- Northern blocking, it would stand a lot better chance of returning well below average or very cold temperatures for the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
20 minutes ago, KyleHenry said:

We may well see the WAA traverse up through UK as showing from a cross range of models.

Looking at the 100mb heights in the later stages of the GFS, this looks to be the conduit for retrogressing the pattern by last frame.

240 hours nR9BIvF.gif384 hours  l3Uwz11.gif

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
On 3 March 2016 at 9:37 AM, fergieweather said:

Yes, overall: but much uncertainty as we get later into the month (after a phase of temperature recovery back up towards average). Whilst GloSea5 forecasts of both MJO and SSW response are indicative of a stronger chance (versus average climatology) of blocked/easterly conditions late March-early April, this does not - even if it happens - necessarily translate to *pronounced* or prolonged cold, given steadily increasing insolation by then. Way back in mid-Dec, I recall discussing the GloSea5 strat diagnostics with a senior UKMO forecaster. He noted that whilst all signs were pointing to late Feb-March SSW, it would, quote "....probably be too late to significantly offset an otherwise markedly mild season, which is doubtless how 99% of population will remember it." Now we are at this stage, the point here is to manage expectations of SSW influence: yes, a higher chance of cold weather later this month, but this shouldn't be interpreted as a de facto risk of *very* cold/snowy weather.

 Hi Ian ,

 

Thank you ever so much for taking the time to reply to my post and in great detail too. 

 The way I look at it, and obviously I'm open to correction, is your 2 to 3 months Outlook Forecasts ahead over the last few years have been pretty much spot on. 

 What I have found though is the most difficult thing for you and all the forecasters and M.O is the short term forecast for snow events and thunderstorms forecasting. 

 I can completely understand this as we in the UK sit next to the giant warm bath that is the Atlantic  and we are off and attacked on three sides sometimes at once  so forecasting call versus warm is a huge headache !

 As for the thunderstorms they are very hit and miss and I think both the snow and thunderstorms will never be easy to forecast no matter what computers are put in place . 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A reminder there is a Meto thread open for discussion, So lets please move on to what the Models are showing in here thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

GFS bringing some very comfortable weather starting next Saturday. Widespread temperatures in the mid-teens and uppers of 10c approaching the UK. I welcome that, fed up of this awful winter.

Rtavn24017.gif

Rtavn2402.gif

Edited by Snowy L
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Well it's very plausible that sww also can aid in uk blocking.

and incredibly I've seen some hail sleet and snow here in Portsmouth so it goes to show that even in marginal events miracles do happen.

but moving on is some signs of a bit of Spring.

but where will the mjo and ssw aid the uk heights to go after a bit of Spring ne into Scandinavia or northwest to Greenland I'd be more inclined to suggest after the uk heights will sit from either Greenland or Iceland into Scandinavia but atm the models are keen on uk heights very nice indeed be nice to get rid of the winter blues.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
50 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Looking at the 100mb heights in the later stages of the GFS, this looks to be the conduit for retrogressing the pattern by last frame.

240 hours nR9BIvF.gif384 hours  l3Uwz11.gif

 

 

Indeed, this can be seen at the 500mb level in the extended range of the 12z GFS operational, 500mb cold pool / vortex drifting west from eastern Siberia and  the ridge over UK and NE Atlantic retrograding to NW Atlantic and Greenland. This has been advertised by the EPS and GEFS 500mb means and anomalies for a while now.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
2 hours ago, phil nw. said:

A couple of posts having a dig at the Met office have been removed as they add nothing to this thread.

As we know the MO is the same as any other agency and uses the latest modeling for their outlooks.The further ahead we look the more likely things change.

Most of us have been following the weather models long enough to know this so it's perhaps unfair to criticise  them when all they are doing is reflecting the latest information.

Ok then back to our own views on the models we can see.

Cheers all.

 

 
 
 

Indeed, people whether experienced or inexperienced might do well to Google "The Butterfly Effect" aye Phil. :hi:

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

ukmaxtemp.png

Yes, still happy GFS still going with this, few runs on the trot now, hope ECM follows later, shame still FI though

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
2 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

So to be honest Ian this goes very much against the recent updates of the last 2 weeks . Firstly the major warming now was not meant to be the final warming but now it is ? Sounds a bit dubious to be honest . Secondly the blocked cold late March early April has been something you have mentioned consistently recently and now the models have dropped it ? 

I completely understand you can only go by the most recent updates but it really goes to show how fickle even the super computers of this world can be . 

I really find it pointless in giving forecasts of 3/4 weeka in the future when come nearer the time models see things very differently .this is something that happens a fair bit . 

It's only the weather is suppose but it's a tad frustrating when things change like the clappers . It just makes me take every forecast out there with a massive pinch of salt and even you most recent update will probably be different next week . 

Enjoy the rollercoaster guys 

 

Agree with most you say there except the "pointless" reference as that seems a bit harsh to me, all imho. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Any analysis forthcoming on tonight's ECM guys n gals. Might be some snow overnight for a few around Central and SE parts, although not much likely to settle. Overall I am pleased with the analysis of my post from Tuesday as I didn't look too far past this week and so far all has gone according to expectations.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
1 hour ago, Snipper said:

So if we are to learn anything from the model thread what should we conclude from this winter?  Just wonder. 

the accuracy of the noaa 500 mb anomaly charts  is the most accurate source for the 6-14 day period, they are highly unlikely to lead you up the garden path which is what the ecm and gfs has done.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
12 minutes ago, Banbury said:

ECH1-168.GIF?04-0

Something new from ECM...............interesting :)

The ECM different at day 6, cutting off the low in the Atlantic

ECM1-144.GIF?04-0

The others already have a deepening trough which allows the Azores high to build in ad strengthen later on. So instead of an increasingly dry and mild set up we end up with more rain and a rain complex set up later on.

ECM1-216.GIF?04-0   ECM1-240.GIF?04-0

Alas nothing wintry here either, just cool and damp overall, so it will probably verify :rofl:

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

the accuracy of the noaa 500 mb anomaly charts  is the most accurate source for the 6-14 day period, they are highly unlikely to lead you up the garden path which is what the ecm and gfs has done.

Just to add I don't think the GEFS and ecm/eps are too bad either. Preferably appraise them all together whilst keeping a beady on the det. outputs. :)

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
9 minutes ago, Banbury said:

ECH1-168.GIF?04-0

Something new from ECM...............interesting :)

Yes those looking for warmer weather next weekend will be disappointed with this -similar at 144 to UKMO though.

ECM1-192.thumb.gif.00b8a6323f051e72526fe

ECM0-192.thumb.gif.8a6ceaa2a03b1cb29c52c

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The ECM different at day 6, cutting off the low in the Atlantic

ECM1-144.GIF?04-0

The others already have a deepening trough which allows the Azores high to build in ad strengthen later on. So instead of an increasingly dry and mild set up we end up with more rain and a rain complex set up later on.

ECM1-216.GIF?04-0

Alas nothing wintry here either, just cool and damp overall, so it will probably verify :rofl:

That's if you assume the mid-longer range as showing as correct. Interesting 7 day chart and sort of backs up what I said a couple of days ago about weak heights being underplayed around Svalbard. It could be that in a few days time we're actually looking at blocking being a little more pronounced to our N in the mid range. All fairly common stuff when there's a stratospheric warming taking place.

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