Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[Long haul to mild]

Certainly some interesting charts but I'll keep at the back of my mind that according to a run from GFS a week ago, it should have been snowing here about now and lasting well into tomorrow! Therefore charts at T192 aren't something I'm going to take too literally.

Nevertheless there is starting to be some good model agreement for the general pattern next week and some wintry weather is likely at times for some places.

[Banbury]

ECM a chillier run and a reload quite possible

[nick sussex]

It's funny when you look back at some previous March snow events they didn't have deep cold. Take this from March 2/3 1995. A little low runs quickly eastwards from the Atlantic, this delivered some significant snow to the Midlands/E/Anglia/Home Counties north of London.

I remember this vividly because I was at University and of course the snow didn't really do much in London. A lot of students couldn't get in from areas to the north and nw of London.

This winter for the UK has almost been like trying to get the stars to align perfectly, every marginal set up has gone pearshaped and its almost like you'd need to see the -15 850 temp line to have a decent chance! These snow events in March are not that rare and you'll often see more snow in March than December.

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

13 minutes ago, Banbury said:

ECM a chillier run and a reload quite possible

Reload probable rather than possible on that chart. However all academic at that range!

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It's funny when you look back at some previous March snow events they didn't have deep cold. Take this from March 2/3 1995. A little low runs quickly eastwards from the Atlantic, this delivered some significant snow to the Midlands/E/Anglia/Home Counties north of London.

I remember this vividly because I was at University and of course the snow didn't really do much in London. A lot of students couldn't get in from areas to the north and nw of London.

This winter for the UK has almost been like trying to get the stars to align perfectly, every marginal set up has gone pearshaped and its almost like you'd need to see the -15 850 temp line to have a decent chance! These snow events in March are not that rare and you'll often see more snow in March than December.

 

 

Yes, all you need is little runners or sinking troughs, I got 5 inches in Birmingham followed by a very severe frost on the Friday night, Meanwhile the ECM 12z has the same trough as the GFS but the uppers don't look as conducive on the ECM.

Edited February 25, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[phil nw.]

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM at T168hrs is not far from the GFS and this is a marked change from its recent trend to flatten the pattern out.

Good to see this change.  Surely the UK snowshield has to give way at some point in the next few weeks.

Yes Nick some good charts again for a continuing cold outlook into March.

Another colder reload from the north west on the way after a brief milder spell - day 5.

Good to see both main models showing decent Atlantic ridging later next week.

We need to see as much amplification towards Greenland as possible to get a stronger Arctic feed.Some areas further north especially Scotland have done ok for snowfall but for many areas further south the daytime surface temperatures have been higher under the current slack flow and warming sun.GFS in it's later frames shows what a strong ridge upstream would deliver and would give more areas further south a chance of snowfall.

At least whilst this pattern continues it keeps some Wintry interest going  for a while longer.

 

 

 

[keithlucky]

2 hours ago, andymusic said:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4h4 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA

28 day mean on JMA with eastern trough. Major flip for western Europe to colder and stormy Winter not over

A milder Monday with heavy rain followed by heavy wintry showers Tuesday Wednesday then Friday BOOM lol

Edited February 25, 2016 by keithlucky

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

 

if  the  gfs  is  right about next week dont  know what the daily express  will say!!!

[Mark wheeler]

23 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

A milder Monday with heavy rain followed by heavy wintry showers Tuesday Wednesday then Friday BOOM lol

Carlsberg don't make model runs come true but if it did it would probably ...

 

I really hope all will finally be rewarded for there Damn good persistent quest in the search for snow. Keep it up peeps through thick and thin.

[bobbydog]

38 minutes ago, tinybill said:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

 

if  the  gfs  is  right about next week dont  know what the daily express  will say!!!

well if we all start posting summer charts and say its going to be warm, the headline will be-"BRITAIN TO MELT IN 50c HEATWAVE" then as we all know, the exact opposite will happen!

 

edit- i'll get me coat...

Edited February 25, 2016 by bobbydog
to get me coat.

[Eskimo]

So I see the ECM also has that slack area of low pressure over the UK at the same time frame. Interesting!

[joggs]

5 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

So I see the ECM also has that slack area of low pressure over the UK at the same time frame. Interesting!

Yes until it becomes a massive watered down version on all models again with lack of precip.Only following the form of all predicted cold spells this winter I suppose.

[mcweather]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

It's funny when you look back at some previous March snow events they didn't have deep cold. Take this from March 2/3 1995. A little low runs quickly eastwards from the Atlantic, this delivered some significant snow to the Midlands/E/Anglia/Home Counties north of London.

I remember this vividly because I was at University and of course the snow didn't really do much in London. A lot of students couldn't get in from areas to the north and nw of London.

This winter for the UK has almost been like trying to get the stars to align perfectly, every marginal set up has gone pearshaped and its almost like you'd need to see the -15 850 temp line to have a decent chance! These snow events in March are not that rare and you'll often see more snow in March than December.

 

 

I agree Nick. an awful lot said in these threads about the requirement for uppers between minus 5 and minus 10  to get a worthwhile snowfall yet in reality the deepest snow I have ever seen ie 12- 18in general covering with drifts 10-20 feet deep occurred 18tH/19TH FEB 1978 with uppers of -2  to - 3.

[mushymanrob]

it should be no surprise the ecm has changed from its 'flat' outlook, the noaa anomaly charts never agreed with that pattern.

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

On ‎2‎/‎22‎/‎2016 at 7:21 PM, fergieweather said:

 

He was very vague was he not?

 

Looks interesting next week.

GFS

EC

GEM

 

Edited February 25, 2016 by winterof79

[knocker]

The ext anomalies tonight are all pretty similar, the GEFS is more amplified vis the Atlantic ridge/trough than the ecm, so no significant change to the 14 day outlook. The advection of colder air south does rather depend on the strength and duration of this amplification but as of this moment the percentage play regarding the outlook remains as previously stated.

Edited February 25, 2016 by knocker

[January Snowstorm]

We learn something small every year and the noaa anomaly charts are my lesson for 2016. Jh often mentions them and rightly so.

In what's been an appalling year for model accuracy they have been the shining light.

 

[Long haul to mild]

17 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

it should be no surprise the ecm has changed from its 'flat' outlook, the noaa anomaly charts never agreed with that pattern.

I've become a bit of a convert to those anomaly charts this winter as I think they are good at picking out the mid range overall pattern.

For anyone wanting widespread snow in the next couple of weeks we will need to see signs of the +ve anomalies heading to Greenland else it's likely to be more of a NW flow with snow reserved for the usual favoured spots. 

[tcc]

Yes for a generic short to mid term idea of the pattern then the noaa charts are useful tool. What I have found interesting is that over the last couple of winters the Glosea5 has been impressively accurate at long ranges.

 

[bluearmy]

The trend on the extended eps is to drift the ridging to the nw closer to the UK with the euro trough sinking closer to the med. 

[Singularity]

 

As the vortex gets torn apart in a genuine split-vortex SSW event, I find myself realising that this lends credence to the idea of a brief interruption to the MJO-driven HLB theme around 5th-8th March, as low heights are pushed down into the troposphere ahead of the down-welling splitting event.

The fact that the vortex is already well displaced from the pole ahead of the split should mitigate the impacts but it could be enough to weaken the blocking N of the UK just as it starts to move some properly cold air in our direction. How very typical that would seem!

ECM performs a general lowering of heights in the Arctic days 8-10 but this seems too simplistic and we have to bear in mind the positive bias with the AO which was flagged up on here some time last month.

That the ECM run still manages to finish with a strong suggestion of a trough dropping south through the UK again is a reflection of the strength of the MJO forcing, which is stronger on today's ECMF update than it was on yesterday's. This follows the observed MJO for yesterday moving toward phase 8 in tandem with the higher-amplitude GEFS outlook as opposed to the lower-amplitude solution of ECMF. I do think GEFS tends to fare pretty well with the MJO when it's in phases 8 or 1, for whatever reason that may be. Close proximity to the U.S. perhaps?

 

It's not hard to see the trouble we're in if we don't get a sufficient import of cold air to produce the snow that most of us seek - there is so much working against a strong Azores High influence on the UK and/or Europe, which is what we usually need to produce early spring warmth. Indeed everything points toward the very opposite; a prominent Euro trough with intermittent influence on the UK.

[Eskimo]

6 minutes ago, easton888 said:

18z having none of it

What? It looks even snowier!

[easton888]

sorry yes my mistake!

[NorthYorksWeather]

18z looks to be heading a similar route to the 12z however colder air delayed slightly, could be some decent snow events if we can keep the cold air entrenched in the disturbances arriving from the W/NW.

[Essex snowman]

2 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

What? It looks even snowier!

EastOn888 one liners like its are no help with no charts u need to learn charts before u post next your say winters over and no chance of cold il wait for your next post can't wait