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Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Indeed. As do EC clusters out to 10th March. The expected pattern into early March heralds prospect of repeated bouts of Am incursions, much akin to the current one, with risk of deeper cyclonicity passing to S/SE of UK at times. 

oh no   so that means i have to stay glued to the models for another few weeks  awaiting a few flurries of snow.  

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

oh no   so that means i have to stay glued to the models for another few weeks  awaiting a few flurries of snow.  

Or if any cyclonicity just about has cold enough air wrapped around a potent wave like Dec 1990, you could end up with the mother of all beltings.

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Posted
  • Location: suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: deep snow/warm sunshine
  • Location: suffolk
15 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Indeed. As do EC clusters out to 10th March. The expected pattern into early March heralds prospect of repeated bouts of Am incursions, much akin to the current one, with risk of deeper cyclonicity passing to S/SE of UK at times. 

I do hope so as today has been lovely and warm in the sun in this cold spell with plenty of sunshine. If only all cold spells were so warm!. Maybe next year we will have a cold, cold spell.

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Or if any cyclonicity just about has cold enough air wrapped around a potent wave like Dec 1990, you could end up with the mother of all beltings.

Well, take the two 12z clusters here (to illustrate where EC goes directly beyond the T+240 DET frames cited by others earlier on the thread)... a general rinse-repeat of forecast shenanigans this weekend. And more could follow. 

Screenshot_2016-02-24-23-38-20-1.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

On slide 10:

"An amplified wave pattern is evident during the recent period over the Pacific and North America domains. Notably, the canonical subtropical ridge associated with El Niño is not evident."

Our troubles are now pretty much entirely down to MJO and stratospheric forcing and which way the pendulum swings. I can't quite believe how keen ECM is to flatten things even in light of its MJO projections - though it could be that the Atlantic SST anomaly pattern adds more to the westerlies when the balance is tipped such as is the case if that low in the western N. Atlantic merges with the one near the UK Wed-Thu next week as opposed to stalling out SW of Greenland.

Some epic HLB from the GFS 06z and 18z today, less so the 12z and 00z but they weren't bad either - just uninspiring with the configuration. 


The division in the EC ensembles and the number of outcomes keen on further AM incursions may relate to the fact that numerous perturbations keep the MJO alive in phase 8 as opposed to killing it off:

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

I wonder if the det. was among the very fastest to send it into the COD? If not, my theory dies young :laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Well, take the two 12z clusters here (to illustrate where EC goes directly beyond the T+240 DET frames cited by others earlier on the thread)... a general rinse-repeat of forecast shenanigans this weekend. And more could follow. 

Screenshot_2016-02-24-23-38-20-1.png

Must admit I'm a little underwhelmed, the ridge is far enough North on the first cluster rep but the low  centered a bit too SW (would rather a bit further East), the Second one has the low far enough East but not sure the ridge is far enough North to get any cold air injected, probably me being thick but cant read the isotherms, thanks anyway though Ian for posting them,

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I will say though, there is enough cyclonic cold GEFS members in FI to keep things interesting, however, marginality  definitely involved and probably on the wrong side.

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Posted
  • Location: Rushden, East Northamptonshire
  • Location: Rushden, East Northamptonshire

I need to be better educated in the MJO signals as a valid forecasting tool. I read all the hype and they still confuse and disappoint for 'upstream signals' etc. seems like a total fad to me. I can't think of one situation this winter these 'signals' have been a useful short or even long term forecasting tool over conventional means. Seems like the meteorological equivalent of reading tea leaves if you ask me. I think I've got my head round it but prefer to stick to the various traditional model outputs based on probability and members than that. I have found interpretation baffling and of limited use.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Just to add to my post last evening about the potential for height rises in the greeny/Iceland/n Atlantic area in two weeks time.  This is in conjunction with a lowering of the Azores high anomoly so we can expect the jet to approach at a lower trajectory from the west - potential for undercutting.  as I said, in mid March, probably cold rain for the south but real potential further north and cold rain could easily become the white stuff so tough to switch off model watching for coldies for a fair while yet.  

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS this morning advertises plenty of cold shots from the N/W & East into Spring as heights wax/wane up towards Greenland pushing Lows South of the UK. Plenty of wintry potential especially for the North as blue states with temps continuing below average.

a.pngb.pngc.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Looking at this morning's GFS anomalies there is nothing to suggest any deviation from what has been a pretty steady outlook for the next fourteen days. One can also include last night's ecm 10-15 which is not dissimilar to this mornig's GEFS 10-15.

So with the upstream pattern remaining unchanged a continuation of a mainly NW flow over the UK which will track systems SE over the UK bringing periods of wet and windy weather, some of it wintry with perhaps some transitional snow particularly in the north and on high ground, but also drier and quite pleasant interludes with some influence from the Azores HP. Temps quite variable depending on the transitional nature of the weather regimes but generally a little below average.

No sign of any severe or lengthy cold.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.1af3b35ed5gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.e2ac292feaecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.66d59d6

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m

But when those anomaly charts do show  upcoming blocking we still don't get any decent cold!

I think the huge temperature anomalies in the Arctic and El Niño have created havoc with the models this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY FEB 25TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  The slack and weak Northerly flow across the UK will weaken further over the coming day or so as Low pressure to the West of the UK along with an occluded front edge in slowly towards SW England tomorrow with winds backing through SE towards the NE later tomorrow and certainly over the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK lies between 2000ft to 2500ft across the UK with the lowest figures towards Northern Scotland where some snow showers are occurring with more isolated wintry showers on hills of the Lake District and Wales as well at times. The freezing level may rise to 3000ft or so across the far SW later tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream over the next few weeks is going to stay on the Southern side of the UK moving in a South or SE direction. Through next week it is shown to maintain it's SE axis of flow probably over or just to the South of the UK as Low pressure areas move SE across or to the NE of the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows complex pressure situations over the next few weeks ranging from Low pressure to the South at the weekend with a cold Easterly flow across the UK and then transferring that next week with Low pressure to the North and NE with rain and wind at times. Then as we move through Week 2 a deep depression is shown to cross SE over the UK with further rain before cold and drier Easterly winds return under higher pressure behind it. Through the whole period temperatures will be suppressed making it feel rather cold with frost at night and some of the precipitation events will fall as sleet or snow over the hills not always just for the North. 

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run today is quite duplicate of the Operational Run with just differences in specific positioning of High and Low pressure systems later in the period although the theme remains for conditions to stay generally on the cold side of average relative to March.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show no clear definitive theme to the 14 day point with a variety of options within the clusters ranging from High pressure close to Southern Britain to the other half of members supporting High pressure to the West and a chilly North flow down across the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an Easterly flow over the weekend in the South though it is shown to be a largely dry one. A cold and frosty ridge of High pressure then sinking South across the UK opens the door to the Atlantic with Low pressure crossing East close to the North by midweek allowing a spell of wet and windy weather then colder and more showery conditions by Wednesday for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a similar sequence of events as the Operational output with the main themes being the cold East flow in the South at the weekend giving way to a ridge of High pressure sinking South and bringing a spell of dry and frosty weather across the UK for a time early next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today shows changeable conditions over the next 10 days with much more support for rather cold conditions on most days rather than milder ones. Low pressure at first to the South of the UK with a cold easterly wind in the South transfers to cyclonic winds later next week as Low pressure slips SE down the North Sea and introduces another surge of cold Arctic air with wintry showers with the run ending in another SE moving Low pressure this time across or to the West of the UK with wind and rain for many to end the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows increasingly unsettled weather next week as the ridge following the cold East winds migrates away South early next week with westerly winds with rain or showers setting up for many areas of the UK later next week as Low pressure establishes close to the North of the UK

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning shows a very unsettled picture across the UK later in it's run this morning as Low pressure deepens and becomes entrenched across the UK by the end of next week. After this weekends well documented Easterly blast gives way to quiet conditions under a cold ridge early next week Westerly winds develop with rain and some wintry showers for a time in the North before wet and potentially very windy and cool conditions return to all areas by the second weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart has sharpened the trough down across the UK in 10 days time and with the Jet stream miles away to the South it looks like the model has swung back towards rather cold and unsettled weather likely across the UK the most likely position we find ourselves in at 10 days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for generally unsettled weather with rain at times across the UK next week and with temperatures near or sometimes below average snow is possible on high ground in places.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.6 pts to UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 88.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.6 pts to 64.8 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads today at 52.4 pts to GFS's 51.4 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The the theme of the model outputs this morning show good support for the next weeks conditions before some divergences become apparent between the models longer term. The main theme though is quite easy to get a handle on as the Low pressure currently to the West finally looks un-bothersome for the UK as it slides SE down towards the Med and sets up a chilly but mostly dry Easterly flow over the South for a few days over the weekend. Further North a dry weekend with frost under a ridge of High pressure is likely and this ridge slips South down over the South too early next week cutting off the NE feed but maintaining cold and frosty weather. At the same time Westerly winds and falling pressure will affect the North on Monday and by Tuesday all areas become wet and windy for a time with snow on hills transferring to brighter and more showery conditions midweek as Westerly winds come South to all. Then specific details become harder to predict but the main theme is for further Low pressure to move SE over or close to the UK through the end of next week and week 2 the positioning and axis of flow becoming determinate on conditions at the surface. However the most likely theme will be for unsettled weather to persist with rain and showers and strong winds at times for all and with colder air never far away if not over us some of the rain may fall as sleet or snow at times, mostly but not exclusively in the hills and in the North. There is no early signs of Spring warmth shown within the model outputs this morning.           

Next Update Friday February 26th 2016 from 09:00

Edited by Gibby
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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
7 minutes ago, Gibby said:

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY FEB 24TH 2016

Today is Thursday 25th

Next Update Thursday February 25th 2016 from 09:00

 

Should this one say Friday 26th?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
5 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

 

Sorry. Corrected.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
52 minutes ago, knocker said:

No sign of any severe or lengthy cold.

 

 

Considering March is in touching distance and you talking about the day 10-15 range i think you should sum up differently/

No sign of any Unusual warm or length mild spells. 

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
9 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

 

814day.03.gif

To me this shouts out Northerly, Northerly, Northerly - and if I'm wrong, North-easterly!

not to me.... that chart shows troughing to our northeast and a strong azores high with a mean upper flow from the northwest.  this will allow for some northerly incursions but equally some westerly ones too. it smacks of unsettled , below average, mixed weather with some wintry showers mainly on northern hills.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

not to me.... that chart shows troughing to our northeast and a strong azores high with a mean upper flow from the northwest.  this will allow for some northerly incursions but equally some westerly ones too. it smacks of unsettled , below average, mixed weather with some wintry showers mainly on northern hills.

Would agree with that.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
15 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

not to me.... that chart shows troughing to our northeast and a strong azores high with a mean upper flow from the northwest.  this will allow for some northerly incursions but equally some westerly ones too. it smacks of unsettled , below average, mixed weather with some wintry showers mainly on northern hills.

nor do I see any N or NE flow other than transient behind a surface feature. The outputs this morning show ECMWF still suggesting a somewhat flatter flow than either NOAA or GFS in the anomaly charts but overall little major change in pattern in the upper air seems likely for 10-14 days to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
36 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

Really though, the concerns I expressed a week or so ago about the lack of established cold air pooling anywhere near the UK, look to have manifested; although the near continent does chill out considerably, it can't do so to a sufficient level for ventures to the UK to produce dependably snowy results. So even with the MJO and stratospheric forcing working in favour of blocked patterns with northerly and easterly flows for the UK, snowy weather looks to be playing hard-to-get. It's like we've suddenly seen another 50 years of a warming climate applied to our weather!

Yep - a vision of an alarming future in which only winters with a torn up vortex by January and favourable arrangement of blocking features can deliver lowland snowfall for the south of England in particular. Here's hoping low solar activity can prevent that from establishing within the next few decades! I'll stop wandering off topic now! :friends:

Has been frustrating seeing seemingly good synoptic patterns at last arrive across the UK to end the winter but a lack of surface cold to tap into. I don't think it's necessarily a case of bad luck either, the lack of sea ice around Svalbard and over the Kara and Barents Seas this winter thus far compared to the norm because of an anomalously warm arctic maybe be a contributory factor this side of the Atlantic whenever we tap into arctic airmasses.

56ced0919ca73_SeaIce.thumb.JPG.e13cea609

A lack of cold surface air over mainland Europe not helping either. Yesterday saw -8C temps at 850mb in the south of England, yet surface temps were reaching 8-9C, frustrating that the surface temps don't respond to the colder air aloft, though the sun has a little warmth now in late Feb which is contributory factor. Surface temps would not doubt be lower with cloud cover - which will probably be seen across eastern areas on Saturday as a cold easterly develops briniging stratocumulus off the N Sea, perhaps thick enough for the odd light wintry shower.

But, any meaningful snow looks unlikely now as we head into early March. Surface cold is lacking when any meaningful precipitation from fronts turns up early next week from the west, away from higher ground in the north, which even here will be transitory.

On a more cheerful note, the extended 00z EPS anomalies at day 15 show -ve height anomaly over southern Europe with +ve height anomalies over the NE Atlantic, Greenland, Svalbard and NW Russia. This ties in with what 00z GFS operational was showing at t+288-360 - with plenty of northern blocking. Only problem is, if we go down this path, will there be any particularly cold air to tap into?

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

The GFS 6z is looking like a stonker, just a question to those that use the anomaly charts, there is a scandi block that looks like sitting there for a good few days (we will see in a few minutes), is this only another way of representing the information, surely the next GFS anomaly chart should show a scandi block??

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