Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[chicken soup]

18z has a bit of snow for the northwest on wed.

 

 

Edited February 22, 2016 by chicken soup

[Daniel*]

Wave like disturbance feature moving SE through Wednesday excuse the paint job a number of places possibly getting a covering.

Edited February 22, 2016 by Daniel*

[winterof79]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Wave like disturbance feature moving SE through Wednesday excuse the paint job a number of places possibility getting a covering.

[knocker]

28 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Looking beyond this weekend and the 6-15 day upper air outlook is nicely shown below on the two NOAA charts, backed up by ECMWF-GFS. My own comments re daily checking I do is below the link.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Noaa

6-10 and its pretty similar in major aspects with the trough perhaps a shade more marked as is the ridge w of it with uk in n of w flow with height bit above 546dm under ridge effect-origin n of Vancouver?

8-14 keeps the pattern going, so n of w flow looks odds on out to at least 6/7 march, and probably beyond

 

I notice Met are using the term 'cold' so 4 or 5C below the average for your own area. To me this means values of 8-9C for afternoon temperatures so probably in the range 3 or 4 to maybe 5+ or so?

 

The GEFS and ecm 10-15 paint a very similar picture. (Can't post the ecm of course.

[Eskimo]

GFS 18z allows for more activity in the North Sea. The chops and changes continue, and I'm sure they will for many days to come.

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening All... and is it not a good evening for Coldies What initially holds my interest is late week into early weekend , if only enough precip  moves a little more northeast then game on for southern Britain! Perfect conditions for snow in tonights gfs....

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

It is unrelated to that chart - the kink in fact goes ESE my mistake.

[moffat]

looking like north east coast lines will fair pretty well into next week !

[winterof79]

Quite a breeze setting up from 00z Sat through to Sunday

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=14

 

[winterof79]

Is the Azores about to throw a little ridge up behind the trough.

Edited February 22, 2016 by winterof79

[Man With Beard]

43 minutes ago, knocker said:

The GEFS and ecm 10-15 paint a very similar picture. (Can't post the ecm of course.

Knocker I will add the ECM D10 mean chart:

Suggests to me a re-run of the current synoptics may be on the cards next week, with another ridge towards Greenland and Scandi trough following a day or two of slightly milder.

Back in the short term, these two fax charts have got my attention:

What is that trough doing?

Interesting for the SW, but that 528dam line is a bit further north than I expected?

[feb1991blizzard]

A disappointing GFS FI but we will have to see where it sits in the 850's ens spread, I am far more interested in ensembles than op runs in the second half of GFS runs

[fergieweather]

2 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

Hi Ian

Have you backed away from your thoughts a few days ago of a very cold start to Spring? I remember you saying that many weeks of blocking and below avg temps was favoured.

If yes, does this mean that the ukmo monthly and mogreps are as fickle as the charts we see such as gfs ecm etc.

I suppose the point I am getting at is are any computer models reliable beyond 7 days. Imo they have all performed poorly throughout Winter

No: if anything, tonight's EC Monthly - which, like GloSea, has performed well this season - adds further weight to notion of a chilly start to Spring.

It has markedly strong -ve temp anomalies end of Feb & 1st week March, and then retaining (albeit weaker, but that's normal as lead time extends) -ve anomalies right to 3rd week of March. Equally, it shows blocking initially to W then becoming dominant to NW later, with - and this in key contrast to last Thurs output - a drier outcome generally but notably so by 3rd week as signs of NW block establish. This *may* be the model toying with SSW impact. Not sure. Flow throughout is broadly from N (from NW phases at first to more N/NE'ly after mid-month). So nuances aside, it certainly doesn't look mild: at least in *overall* sense.

Met Office today retain the broad idea of a prolonged phase of below avg temps into at least early March, possibly further, and EC will undoubtedly strengthen their view. However, GloSea5 *had* been (I haven't checked today) less bullish on colder weather a bit further into the month. Hopefully it's right...and spring can get running after only a temporary chilly start! We shall see.

The difficulty here, communication wise, is that some people (not just elements of media) run off with ideas about 'below average' equating to the exceptional conditions of March 2013; or being some coded forecast for Snowmageddon/Big Freeze. Neither are true, of course: we see nil exceptional re severe cold looking ahead. But clearly, snow could be possible. That's not a core part of message until much shorter, reliable lead times. 

[The Enforcer]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Interesting for the SW, but that 528dam line is a bit further north than I expected?

I guess the 528DAM line doesn't matter too much if the 850s are sufficiently low and the continental feed means that the dewpoints and WBFL are favourable.

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Knocker I will add the ECM D10 mean chart:

Suggests to me a re-run of the current synoptics may be on the cards next week, with another ridge towards Greenland and Scandi trough following a day or two of slightly milder.

 

 

Okay and the 10-15 is not much different to the 6-10

[fergieweather]

1 minute ago, The Enforcer said:

I guess the 528DAM line doesn't matter too much if the 850s are sufficiently low and the continental feed means that the dewpoints and WBFL are favourable.

The potential spoiler (if you want snow) is how the WBFL rises >300m from W with the ppn. Tricky one this.

[The Enforcer]

13 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

The difficulty here, communication wise, is that some people (not just elements of media) run off with ideas about 'below average' equating to the exceptional conditions of March 2013; or being some coded forecast for Snowmageddon/Big Freeze. Neither are true, of course: we see nil exceptional re severe cold looking ahead. But clearly, snow could be possible. That's not a core part of message until much shorter, reliable lead times. 

Exactly. When there's an option of a chart a) producing -5C 850s and the promise of a light covering at T+24 or b) producing -10C 850s and the promise of a foot of snow at T+168, most jump immediately for b). But by the time b) reaches T+24 it's no longer producing -10C, usually not even producing -5C.

Edited February 22, 2016 by The Enforcer

[feb1991blizzard]

No extended ecm eps available for second run running.

[fergieweather]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No extended ecm eps available for second run running.

? They all seem complete for 00z and 12z runs and are there in their entirety (just checked). How odd... 

[Swave Snow]

2 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

? They all seem complete for 00z and 12z runs and are there in their entirety (just checked). How odd... 

Pray tell what do they show 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, fergieweather said:

? They all seem complete for 00z and 12z runs and are there in their entirety (just checked). How odd... 

I meant on this freely available website in graph form, I'm not sure where else to view them from. These are still showing 12z from yesterday.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

[fergieweather]

1 minute ago, Swave Snow said:

Pray tell what do they show 

Colder than average out to 15d... in a nutshell. 

[bryan629]

This will do very nicely thank you 

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

And the best bit .......

 A negative AO and colder temperatures across the NH continents including the Eastern US, Northern Europe and East Asia are favored in the mean for four to six weeks during this mature phase. 

[A Frayed Knot]

Nice to read back on all posts 'some barmy and some ridicule ..

Some post's later last month were where is the COLD and now the Cold is here  are calling for where  is the Snow ?

Some moan as it was wet and very wet and Mild ' we are in a Cold spell at last and the Long Train Running as headed of down south , Dont look at Models as they are only Skeleton and Model delusion in many ways ' Look at  FAX CHARTS .... The ones to go bye eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee, BTW ' I Smell when the North wins blows and a Blizzard xx

[knocker]

The GFS this morning shows colder than average, but dry,  conditions over the UK for the next week with a couple of caveats, There is a likelihood of wintry showers in the east and some little wave depressions slip SES on Friday/Sat bringing some wet and breezy conditions to the Royal Duchy and the SW before the next system encroaches from the west on Tuesday.