Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[BarnetBlizzard]

20 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Much as it pains me to say it the SE doesn't look to bad at the moment

 

 

Pub run looking good thus far. Slightly better heights out west, slightly better northerly. 

 

[lukemc]

2 hours ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

1 hour ago, chicken soup said:

I wish people would stop saying that infuriating phrase GET THE COLD IN FIRST THEN THE SNOW WILL COME...the snow never does come, and its looking the same this time...cold and dry week coming up.

So going by this evening's output which category would most of you put this cold spell in I wonder,if the ecm upgrades further we could be calling it a severe cold outbreak!but as it stands where would you put it I wonder.....chilly/cold/rather cold/very cold/or bitter.?

 

Didn't people say this in 2010 - I remember terms like dry as a bone and features popped up?

Luke

 

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, BarnetBlizzard said:

 

Pub run looking good thus far. Slightly better heights out west, slightly better northerly. 

 

Slight northerly shift in the low and you'll be building snowmen

 

[Eskimo]

The GFS 18z allows for more snow showers drifting off the north sea, albeit light at this stage. 

[Man With Beard]

Painfully close to a South West snow event on the pub run so far (T126) - parts of Ireland could do well

 

Thames Streamer potential by Saturday:

A little shortwave over Norway might help us from T138 - so often the spoiler, this time it could be the making of the cold spell as the upper flow would send it towards us in cold uppers. Not modelled or even forecast as yet, but we don't usually see them until we get inside T120!

Edited February 21, 2016 by Man With Beard

[snowice]

Pub run looking more like ukmo

Edited February 21, 2016 by snowice

[Mark Neal.]

Also GFS 18z shows a trough with band of light snow in NW, moving into central england and then Home Counties, light. but just going to show anyone ruling out snow and a predominantly dry picture aint certain.  (This on Weds)

Edited February 21, 2016 by Mark N

[Paul]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Hi - but I have to confess to being one of the regular members on here who find constant reminding of this a bit frustrating. Of course this is model output discussion - but the current direction of talk is all related back to model interpretation - so why cant we let it run? If all we ever had was posts stating what the models show then this would become a really dull thread.

 

1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

i think the point is, its the "model output discussion" thread.

not the "model output- lets all agree and just state what the models are showing without debate" thread.

if we all agreed harmoniously, there would be no discussion!

Entirely agree with the above,  if it's about the models then it's fine.

But, what members (and in turn the team) also get frustrated with is the extremely regular very off topic posts being made in here by a small minority. If those making them would just take 2 seconds to consider whether their post is model related and to make it elsewhere if not there'd be no reminders. As an example, for every reminder I think I've put in the thread in the last few days, I've probably pm'd 10 people asking them to post in the relevant thread. We all need to work together on this stuff!

And on that note, I'm heading back to the models - feel free to pm me to further discuss this though. 

Tonights Ensemble anomalies certainly have a decent set of cold patterns showing on them from now until the start of March at the very least

  

And that translates to the temperature anomalies too

  

[SMU]

The GFS 18 has moved significantly ( again ) towards the UKMO 12z with heights suddenly over iceland appearing at 132 & low uppers remaining over the UK in situ....

another day of solid momentum for cold with upgrades -

-although I dont want to Jinx it !!

[cheshire snow]

57 minutes ago, Mark N said:

Also GFS 18z shows a trough with band of light snow in NW, moving into central england and then Home Counties, light. but just going to show anyone ruling out snow and a predominantly dry picture aint certain.  (This on Weds)

I think this trough was on the fax charts earlier.

C.S

[snowice]

Lp in spain is nearly the same as ukmo!18gfs has it in the same place cold uppers flooding west

Edited February 21, 2016 by snowice

[Ali1977]

Snow showers will be packing in by next Sat/Sun from the east, they won't show up yet but will do on the high Res nearer the time...intact Sunday is showing this a little on the GFS chart, not that this is worth going off.

Pretty cold in the wind too!!

Edited February 21, 2016 by Ali1977

[Ice Day]

Belting run, big upgrade in terms of upper temps and prolonging the cold.  This at 180

Super stuff and great way to end the weekend!

[Allseasons-Si]

19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The GFS 18 has moved significantly ( again ) towards the UKMO 12z with heights suddenly over iceland appearing at 132 & low uppers remaining over the UK in situ....

another day of solid momentum for cold with upgrades -

-although I dont want to Jinx it !!

Yes steve,here they are side by side,although not as good as the ukmo,it's getting there

gfs,ukmo

and here is the 06z,def backtrack this evening

also,i would just like to point out about ppn charts(even though i post them too) several days out,do not take these as gospal as they change on each and every run even at t24 hrs,so sit back and enjoy this upcoming cold spell and see what unfolds through the week and into next weekend.

ps.from 162 hrs,could be a 2010 humber streamer,that dumped nearly a meter of snow here.

Edited February 21, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Mark Neal.]

Low pressure to the SE, into France and Low countries pretty closeby by end of next weekend on this run. 

[stratty]

1 hour ago, Mokidugway said:

Much as it pains me to say it the SE doesn't look to bad at the moment

 

.....better than nothing I suppose  , I'll lend you mine:

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, stratty said:

.....better than nothing I suppose  , I'll lend you mine:

Still 355 to 400 k acres. :0

 

[Daniel*]

Not a hope in hell this would be bone dry for south eastern Britain and further on, In conclusion GFS ppn charts are cr@p I think the radar will be more useful.

[weirpig]

Just a quick sample of some of the ensembles from the gfs for  wednesday . usual caution advised  but shows how quickly ppn can appear . Not a great deal at the moment but perhaps a few flakes

[Allseasons-Si]

16 minutes ago, stratty said:

.....better than nothing I suppose  , I'll lend you mine:

oh!,there they are

on a plus side,this is the best cold spell coming up that we havn't seen for a few years,lot's of cold weather on offer with night time frost's and cold days ahead,wintry ppn would be the added bonus but it's better than the long slog of mild,wet and windy weather that we have had to endure since December,i am sure everyone agree's with me on this,especially the NW that is sick to there back teeth of the relentless rain and flooding

the cold is coming,so sit tight peeps,the snow will follow,either with it being troughs coming in from the atlantic,troughs coming down from the north with unstable air or snow showers coming in from the SE/E or NE,plenty going on this week,

cheers

night all.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Very doubtful that there will be no ppn with an ENE of substantial strength and low heights with more than adequate uppers. 

I'd expect frequent snow showers off the North Sea with potential Thames/Kent streamer setups as they're closer to the lower heights on the latest run. Let's hope it stays the way it is! 

[Allseasons-Si]

12 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Very doubtful that there will be no ppn with an ENE of substantial strength and low heights with more than adequate uppers. 

I'd expect frequent snow showers off the North Sea with potential Thames/Kent streamer setups as they're closer to the lower heights on the latest run. Let's hope it stays the way it is! 

And with the north sea warmer than last feb,bodes well for convection,IF we get that easterly.

http://seatemperature.info/february/north-sea-water-temperature.html

Edited February 21, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[weirpig]

the gfs 18z was a decent run for cold weather   however the para run keeps the cold more or less right out to the end of the run   at least two weeks of seasonal weather there,

[Timmytour]

Interesting to see if the output tomorrow keeps projecting a lengthy cold spell coming up that lasts well into March.

It's rare but not especially so, to  end up with a March that's colder than any of the "winter" months.   2013 was the last time  but that was the first time since 1949  (with a mean CET of 5.1C....imagine the disappointment of that winter and early spring!! ) In the  late 18th century it happened six times in fifty years

What's rarer is to have the four months get progressively colder...with Dec the warmest and March the coldest.  This is what happened in 2013 and i believe 1925 is the only other such occasion, 

The way the models are shaping up certainly makes it probable that Feb will be colder than Dec and Jan.....but also suggests there's a possibility we might get to see something happen for only the third time in history, just three years after we saw it happen for only the second time!!

[northwestsnow]

UKMO looks very interesting this morning 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html