Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[phil nw.]

A cold week to come certainly with temps in low single figures widely after tomorrow's cold front finally clears south.I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of ice days in the north later in the week as the coldest air gets in with minus 10C uppers reaching Scotland.

i can't see any widespread precipitation but showers some with snow are quite likely in favoured areas to the north and east.Certainly some sharp night frosts around .

As Captain S mentioned earlier some interest towards the end of the week as the Atlantic jet takes a dive south towards Iberia

a low looks like developing at the base of the upper trough and if it sits far enough north then we could see rain maybe turning to snow affecting the southern part of the UK as the system comes up against the cold pool sat over us.

all 3 main models have similar ideas at day 5.

The last week of Winter finally has some nationwide cold interest.

 

 

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I've no motive to 'humiliate' you, karlos...I was merely asking a question, is all...Peace, my friend?

Certainly. Peace 

[chicken soup]

I wish people would stop saying that infuriating phrase GET THE COLD IN FIRST THEN THE SNOW WILL COME...the snow never does come, and its looking the same this time...cold and dry week coming up.

[Captain Shortwave]

Looking at the ECM ens during week 2 we see another Atlantic system move south east into Europe, the trajectory of this is uncertain at this point, we also see heights lower again to our north east in similar fashion to the ECM operational.

      

It would be nice to see an improvement in the orientation of the low in the 5-7 day range as the ens tend to favour a slight warming up as winds turn more south easterly. This can and will change though.

[nick sussex]

You can see on the ECM postage stamps just how many different solutions there are at T120hrs.

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2016022112!!/

Where that low goes and its track will determine how much cold gets into the UK  in the medium term.

[snowice]

The ukmo has not been very consistent this winter so its hard for many to back it against the form horse gfs/ecm at +96! But you never know hopefully its on to something in relation to the low and is right with the positioning over ibera!

[weather eater]

Must have just seen the latest GloSea5 and EC Monthly updates and taken a peek at the UKMO

BBC weather presenter, Rachel Mackley, faints live on air during forecast

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnCNQ3s5BQs

Edited February 21, 2016 by weather eater

[ANYWEATHER]

3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Hi - but I have to confess to being one of the regular members on here who find constant reminding of this a bit frustrating. Of course this is model output discussion - but the current direction of talk is all related back to model interpretation - so why cant we let it run? If all we ever had was posts stating what the models show then this would become a really dull thread.

Hello, the only problem is that everyone will be telling us there disagreements on this thread , there is a thread for this

[Lukesluckybunch]

Yes the models are looking good for somthing a lot colder,but I still feel its not Complete because,there is some hints it could become milder at weekend is that right? Meaning the positioning of the low is crucial

Edited February 21, 2016 by Lukesluckybunch

[bobbydog]

2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hello, the only problem is that everyone will be telling us there disagreements on this thread , there is a thread for this

i think the point is, its the "model output discussion" thread.

not the "model output- lets all agree and just state what the models are showing without debate" thread.

if we all agreed harmoniously, there would be no discussion!

[Eskimo]

Do people not remember the 16th January of this year? When a small feature, mostly of snow came down from the northwest and 'dumped' 2-5cm of snow for many down the spine of the country? That was due to be quite a small feature, appeared only a few days in advanced, but turned out to produce more snow than forecast. 

I am a firm believer that if the cold comes, the snow will follow for some. 

Edited February 21, 2016 by PerfectStorm

[Lukesluckybunch]

21 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

I wish people would stop saying that infuriating phrase GET THE COLD IN FIRST THEN THE SNOW WILL COME...the snow never does come, and its looking the same this time...cold and dry week coming up.

The snow wil most likely come if it's a cold ne/e wind.if it's a dry cold northerly it wil only be a lucky few who will get the snow.

[Abyss]

Where are the most favoured spots for snow this week? Scotland,NI and Northern England?

[Sweatyman]

10 minutes ago, Abyss said:

Where are the most favoured spots for snow this week? Scotland,NI and Northern England?

Nowhere 

[Fozfoster]

2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Nowhere 

In England....

[chris55]

Get the cold established first then see where the troughs/instability/and potential fronts appear. I know this may sound cliche but it IS true.

just as an example, think how many times in the last few weeks we have seen those GFS ppn charts posted with the hatched lines representing snowfall! Did they verify? No, not in the main.

so just understand that predicting ppn accurately beyond days 2-3-4 is very very difficult. 

Thats not to say we will see ppn, just that proclaiming it'll be dry or be snowy with any real conviction is pointless imo.

unless we were to get solid and consistent modelling on a frontal incursion then anything else is open to changes.

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Nowhere 

No one knows yet as that is the reality with forecasting snow . Lots of helpful one liners tonight

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Get the cold established first then see where the troughs/instability/and potential fronts appear. I know this may sound cliche but it IS true.

just as an example, think how many times in the last few weeks we have seen those GFS ppn charts posted with the hatched lines representing snowfall! Did they verify? No, not in the main.

so just understand that predicting ppn accurately beyond days 2-3-4 is very very difficult. 

Thats not to say we will see ppn, just that proclaiming it'll be dry or be snowy with any real conviction is pointless imo.

unless we were to get solid and consistent modelling on a frontal incursion then anything else is open to changes.

Exactly Chris

these marginal events we've had recently would not be marginal had we got the cold in first. When your taking about back edge snow for example,  with the possibility of front edge in the SE as the cold comes back in from a continental feed, that's not a situation you have when the cold is already in place. Yeah we may have a majority of the U.K. having just cold sunny days with frosy nights, but when precip arrives, the snow chances become a lot less marginal.

Bring it on

[Weather Observer]

32 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

i think the point is, its the "model output discussion" thread.

not the "model output- lets all agree and just state what the models are showing without debate" thread.

if we all agreed harmoniously, there would be no discussion!

 I am with you on that.  Logically we should also be able to debate what the models failed to predict. When Tamara tells us that  the strat models called this potential cold spell three weeks early, l have to ask in terms of forecasting, how useful that is?  Just a question.

[snowbob]

All models are showing the best cold spell So far that we have been subjected too

everyone sniping at posters about snowing here and colder there are a bit nuts really.

everyone who reads, lurks or posts on this site are all after the same thing. The art of trying to understand and predict our weather, be it a hobby or addiction that's why we are all here.

There are some amazing talented posters on here and some that are like me learning.

This winter just like the last two just gone hasn't been great but the models are PREDICTING it may get better.

The only thing I can definitely predict with confidence is that if the cold does set in, then disturbances always crop up some good some bad depends on your preference.

 

 

 

Edited February 21, 2016 by snowbob

[Abyss]

31 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Nowhere 

Insightful 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

You can see on the ECM postage stamps just how many different solutions there are at T120hrs.

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2016022112!!/

Where that low goes and its track will determine how much cold gets into the UK  in the medium term.

Looking at that, Nick, shakes confidence in there being snow-sufficient cold between T120 and T168/T192. There are a number of ways that the pattern could evolve differently to the op - two possibilities are

1. the trough dropping too far SW leading to a SEly or even a Sly (early spring for a couple of days)

2. an extra shortwave developing near Iceland which I imagine would prevent the low to the SW breaking away - not sure how it would progress after that, perhaps to an even colder NEly with time as the trough may merely be held up on its journey to Europe, gathering cold from the Arctic Circle above Finland in the meantime. - but there would be a milder interlude.

However - one for you MushyManRob - gettting closer to the Greenland High on the latest NOAA 8 to 14 dayer - and even an Omega block looks possible now. 

 

[Mokidugway]

43 minutes ago, Abyss said:

Where are the most favoured spots for snow this week? Scotland,NI and Northern England?

Much as it pains me to say it the SE doesn't look to bad at the moment

 

[Kentspur]

3 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Much as it pains me to say it the SE doesn't look to bad at the moment

Pains you hey? GOOD! its about time I've not seen a covering of the white stuff since January 2013! us southeasterners are particularly snow starved- so much so I wont start believing we will have any until T1hour  when its approaching on the radar as we've been let down Sooo many times lol

3 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

 

 

[karlos1983]

12 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Pains you hey? GOOD! its about time I've not seen a covering of the white stuff since January 2013! us southeasterners are particularly snow starved- so much so I wont start believing we will have any until T1hour  when its approaching on the radar as we've been let down Sooo many times lol

 

You should try being a south westerner