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Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL

Is this normally a good sign the main jet digging well south?

gfs-5-102.png?18

 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Definitely looking interesting over next week onwards with generally cool/cold air taking over next week,  I think we could see a dominant Scandi block develop into March with nagging easterly, and wouldn't that be ironic!!!!

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

More cracking charts from the GFS, this at 168.  The uppers aren't what they should be but are probably sufficient for wintery stuff!

gfsnh-0-168.thumb.png.80e8b58f1ff479ff11gfsnh-1-168.thumb.png.a75b319d72ad8ec463

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
28 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Is this normally a good sign the main jet digging well south?

gfs-5-102.png?18

 

Affirmative.

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

Typical that Kent is about the only county on any of those charts not to get any snowfall - good job its a few days away and will change! Lets hope for a nationwide snow event, oh and for once a decent Easterly/ ENEerly

Edited by Polar Maritime
Removed quote box.
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Fair bit off but,round two anyone?

another trough coming down from iceland

gfs-0-240.thumb.png.c78897cb48c551ae3016

 

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

:cold::yahoo:

 

image.gif

When those charts fail to produce 4cm at T+81: 56c8ebe922967_20160218T81.thumb.gif.f3d91cm at T+186 is a much bigger leap of faith.

12 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

always misses out central london everytime :sorry:

uksnowdepth.png

Looking at the elevation required according to that chart - at least 300 metres - most places missing out in fact.

Edited by The Enforcer
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

:cold::yahoo:

 

image.gif

All that is showing is hill/mountain snow and the rest get a sugar dusting.

Pretty well useless charts.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
5 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Looking at the elevation required - at least 300 metres - most places missing out in fact according to that chart.

300 meters is the level at which the air temp will be 0c at head height. Ground temp could be around freezing along with -5c upper air temp and low DP. Hence why it shows lying snow in areas below 300m 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Just now, Nick L said:

Do you mean that chart in particular or the run in general? To say that there will be nothing but a sugar dusting for low levels on this run is just plain wrong. 

Way too far away to take seriously though.

Pretty obvious my post refers to "that chart in particular". 

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