Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[Paul]

Here we go with a fresh model thread, with signs of a colder end to winter and start to spring showing in many models currently, but will that trend continue..

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[BarnetBlizzard]

12z looks like an upgrade at the moment.  Slightly better ridge, better heights over Greenland with more energy going south east. Lets see what the rest of the run brings.

[seabreeze86]

The 12z going for a proper Greenland high, low pressure heading into iberia , cold cold cold from there.

[IDO]

Yes better trough disruption at the end of next week as we get better WAA into Greenland. Front crossing on Friday main chance of snow next week, is further south and more inclined to snow (normal caveats at this range):

Friday: 

Over all dry and cold for the next 7-8 days with again the low tracking too far south  to get the northern edge snow (subject to change).

D7:

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes better trough disruption at the end of next week as we get better WAA into Greenland. Front crossing on Friday main chance of snow next week, is further south and more inclined to snow (normal caveats at this range):

Friday: 

Over all dry and cold for the next 7-8 days with again the low tracking too far south  to get the northern edge snow (subject to change).

D7:

Dry ??? suggest you look at more charts

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

The 12z going for a proper Greenland high, low pressure heading into iberia , cold cold cold from there.

Ties in with the coldest medium/long term update,from the MET,for a long time.

[Banbury]

Snow across the UK, far from dry

[Daniel*]

Superb WAA shooting polewards, towards Greenland UK locked in an entrenched cold pattern. Systems disrupting nearby lovely. 

 

[IDO]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Dry ??? suggest you look at more charts

Better to read my post before you post as I said Friday the front crossing is our best chance of snow. But mainly dry apart from that.

[Polar Maritime]

Another cold run from the GFS this afternoon, With a plenty of snow risk by next Friday. It's been a long while since we've seen wintry charts like these 

Edited February 20, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[bobbydog]

end of next week looking interesting-

put THAT on twitter if you like...

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

Better to read my post before you post as I said Friday the front crossing is our best chance of snow. But mainly dry apart from that.

So its not dry and cold for the 7-8 days is it

[Polar Maritime]

A cold Easterly for the weekend with heavy snow showers for parts shown by the GFS and much stronger heights over Greenland. Here comes Winter!

Edited February 20, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Allseasons-Si]

W.T.F

 

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

W.T.F

 

As Singularity, I think it was,alluded to a few days ago,the once in a blue moon March 2013 could be replicated.

But not as a final hoorah this time.

Edited February 20, 2016 by winterof79

[Polar Maritime]

Lovely chart, With a cold N/Ely into wk2 with plenty of snow showers continuing to push in-land off the North Sea.

Edited February 20, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

This is Awesome, the Gfs 12z turns into a snow fest!

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

As Singularity, I think it was,alluded to a few days ago,the once in a blue moon March 2013 could be replicated.

But not as a final hoorah this time.

I did mention this yesterday about the 12z ECM

oops!!,sorry,i said 2010,but never the less still great synoptics matching those two years.

Edited February 20, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Lukesluckybunch]

Wow this really is getting exciting from the models,does this likely cold spell look potent ,what do people think.?

[Polar Maritime]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Wow this really is getting exciting from the models,does this likely cold spell look potent ,what do people think.?

Way to early to call yet Luke, It's only just evolving! But it's certainly a possibility.

Edited February 20, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Wow this really is getting exciting from the models,does this likely cold spell look potent ,what do people think.?

i think the question should be- 'does this potent cold spell look likely?'

possibly....

[MR EXTREMES]

yes most certainly wtf compared to most of this winter.

by god are we on the verge of some true winter just in time ive been watching the models with lots of interest over the last few days also been watching the strat warming and its effect with deep interest but also the dip in solar activity.

anyway we have low into Iberia we have a real northern block and we have vortex segment over this side of the pond cold sst and every model is singing from the same hyme sheet and have been for fair few runs now.

surely it cant go tits up can it ?????

I don't think so this time the heights are the most robust and strongly signalled all winter..

id of been showing the garden path pic again if it was not for the factors in place mjo into phase 8 minor strat warming weakening el nino southerly tracking jet and a true atlantic Greenland heights what could possibly go wrong

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

Way to early to call yet Luke, It's only just evolving!

Yer that's true..and people getting excited about lots of snow,that's not until friday possibly Thursday.please remain cautious we have been here before 

[terrier]

Great looking gfs 12z. But we have been here many times before. Think I will wait till at least Tuesday evening runs to see if these are still showing. Remember if it can go wrong for the uk it probably will. Wasn't we all suppose to see snow Thursday Friday last week from the models and look how that turned out. Will remain sceptical for the time been of the output but let's hope this time they are correct. 

[Polar Maritime]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Yer that's true..and people getting excited about lots of snow,that's not until friday possibly Thursday.please remain cautious we have been here before 

I think most members here posting are very aware of the usual cautions, And are only posting what the models show. It's up to the individual whether they want to get exited or not. Tonight there is as good as cross model agreement for some sort of cold spell as per METO outlook which also gives extra confidence. Somewhere we have not been all Winter..

Edited February 20, 2016 by Polar Maritime