Will we see a sub 3c CET again ?

[stewfox]

Another mild winter ends

Did Dec 2010 give us false hope ?

Are we going to see more storms, more energy and less blocking in future years , or are we just in a blip ?

I almost convinced myself last night I saw some sleet for 5 minutes but it was probably rain.

Is this our future ?

Edited February 18, 2016 by stewfox

[hillbilly]

Could be in for a long wait with only jan,feb ,dec 2010 and march 13 the only representatives in almost 20 years.It is certainly not going to be this year we may be back to the mild period similar to the 1996 to 2008 period !!

[lukemc]

I think Ian Brown asked the same question a few years back and then 2009-10, December 2010 and 2013 all came along so if those cold months can prove that we can get a cold CET month again then surely those months prove that we certainly can do it again.  Look, since 2008 we not only did it again once, we did it again at least 3 times so I am sure we will - people go on about climate change and all that but even taking into account AGW etc. our lifetimes are only a tiny amount of time in the climatological history of the planet.  If Ian Brown was right when he said that - must have been about 2007 or so and if it were impossible how an earth did we get 3 yes THREE very cold months since then LOL? I am sure within the lifetimes of most of us on here, we will get not only another cold CET month of sub 3 CET, we will get a few and probably a winter that will be colder than 2009/10 - maybe even of 1963 type severity - we are likely to go though a few low solar minima within our lifetimes.  What those recent winters have shown is that it is still possible to get cold winters even with a warming climate - also look at North America over the last few years too not just Europe.

 

Luke

Edited February 18, 2016 by lukemc

[The PIT]

Yes and it could be this year still.

[Weather-history]

7 hours ago, hillbilly said:

Could be in for a long wait with only jan,feb ,dec 2010 and march 13 the only representatives in almost 20 years.It is certainly not going to be this year we may be back to the mild period similar to the 1996 to 2008 period !!

Last winter (2014-15)

14th January-13th February CET: 2.8C   I wonder how many realise that?

That's a 31 day period. It didn't coincide with a man made time period ie a month. After all a month is just a specific man made time period.

Last winter did record a 31 CET day period that was sub 3C

So if last winter can record a 31 day period sub 3C, it doesn't require a great leap of logic that a month still can.

Furtermore, it was only just over 5 years ago, that we record a sub zero month and not only that but a 31 day period that went below -1.0C.

 

Edited February 19, 2016 by Weather-history
.

[hillbilly]

I guess anything can happen but just when I thought we were getting back to more 'Normal' winters we seem to be hit with this exceptionally mild one and that of 13/14.We can adjust periods instead of calendar months to manipulate figures but you only need to go back a couple of decades to see a different picture.Maybe I was blessed being brought up but the period 1975 to 1987 had 13 sub 3 deg months in 12 winters but only 5 in the last 19 years and that is how I remember winters to be .Maybe some of these were lucky in how the cold periods landed but you cannot take away the overall pattern.Am sure there are historical periods that are topsy turvey and un seasonal but in my 40+ years I do not recall such mildness in winter hardly distinguished by the summer  just gone with almost every weekly forcast with constant atlantic fronts lined up .

[Snowyowl9]

Will we see a sub 0c cet again yes we did on december 2010 then we had the march on record in 2013 so anything is possible.

 

[Lettucing Gutted]

Despite my usual reputation for exceptionally warm predictions, I also believe that proper cold months e.g. sub 3C CET winter months are still possible, at least for now...  However my main concern is that the return period for most varieties of cold months for all 12 months of the year is rapidly increasing.  Already the exceptionally long period of February 1997 through December 2009 is dramatically longer than the next longest period without sub 3C CET winter months.

In complete contrast we are seeing all kinds of warm records being beaten or approached every year whilst even the coldest months and seasons of the post 1987 Bob Beamon Warming era rarely scrape into the top 30.  This is even more so post January 1997 and post June 2013.

Edited February 19, 2016 by Lettucing Gutted