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Roger J Smith

March 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

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March CET averages and trivia

14.7 ... Warmest March daily mean (27th, 1777)

9.2 ... Warmest March (1957)
9.1 ... 2nd warmest March (1938)
8.4 ... 3rd warmest March (1997)
8.3 ... 4th warmest March (1948,1990, 2012)
8.2 ... 7th warmest March and warmest before 20th century (1750, tied with 1961)
7.6 ... 2014 CET
6.6 ... mean of 1981-2010 and 1986-2015

6.5 ... mean of 21st century (2001-2015)
6.4 ... 2015 CET

6.3 ... mean of 1971-2000

5.8 ... mean of 20th century (1901-2000)
5.7 ... mean of 1961-1990
5.33... mean of all 357 years (1659-2015)
5.2 ... mean of 19th century (1801-1900)
5.0 ... mean of 18th century (1701-1800)

4.6 ... mean of (CET portion of) 17th century (1659-1700)

2.8 ... Coldest March of 20th century (1962)

2.7 ... Coldest March since 1892 (2013) ... tied with 1892 and 1784 joint 12th coldest March

1.8 ... 3rd coldest March (1748)
1.2 ... 2nd coldest March (1785)
1.0 ... Coldest March (1674)

1.0 ... Mean of last ten days of March 2013 (22nd-31st)

0.6 ... Mean of the five days 22nd-26th March 2013

-3.9 ... Coldest March daily mean in last 50 yrs (3rd, 1965)
-6.5 ... Coldest March daily mean (13th, 1845)

Enter your forecast by the end of Monday, 29 Feb to avoid time penalties, or by the end of Thursday 3rd of March with time penalties but before the absolute deadline.

Edited by Roger J Smith

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5.8c for my first time please.

Based on the fact that winter is over and that means it will be colder than average again like last year lol..
Or also based on back ended winter with El Nino, possibly even lower than that.

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 4.8°C for me please. 

PS:  sorry to be pedantic, but Did you mean  Monday the 29th or Sunday the 28th for the deadline? 

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6.8C, dominated mostly by low pressure and the Atlantic, wet month all round, maybe change towards very end with northern blocking, which will dominate April E winds

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4.4 please.

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4.3c for me - lower than the three wretched "winter" months but nothing special. Any snowfall confined to Northern areas at elevation.

 

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In keeping with my prediction of the weather for March 2016, ie cold and unsettled with frequent west and north-westerly winds, I will plump for a CET of 5.5C for the month. 

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12C  :(  Last sub 2C March in 1883.  Last sub 3C, last sub 4C, last sub 5C and last sub 5.5C March in 2013.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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23 hours ago, Chris.R said:

 4.8°C for me please.

PS:  sorry to be pedantic, but Did you mean  Monday the 29th or Sunday the 28th for the deadline?

Post is now edited, end of Monday the 29th is the deadline. I am going to throw in a placeholder 5.9 C as my first guess, may be nothing like that but my hunch is that a colder theme will emerge. I mean, it has to sooner or later.

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4 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Post is now edited, end of Monday the 29th is the deadline. I am going to throw in a placeholder 5.9 C as my first guess, may be nothing like that but my hunch is that a colder theme will emerge. I mean, it has to sooner or later.

I have a strong feeling that March will be colder than usual because a number of large -scale influences suggest strong west or north-westerly winds and because (not least) a large area of the North Atlantic is considerably colder than normal for the season. Hence if prevailing winds are from the west (as is normal in March in most years) these winds will be colder than usual. 

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Below is the March CET from 1659-2015 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black

hGj8n8B.png

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 4.5C and 5.3C. The average March following Februarys in that range is 5.5C

The linear trend for the whole record is +0.42C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.2C.
The linear trend since 1850 is +0.97C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.5C.
The linear trend since 1950 is +1.97C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.8C.
The linear trend over the last 50 years is +2.80C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 7.0C.
The linear trend over the last 30 years is -0.63C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.5C.
 

The current 30 year average for March, of 6.65C, is the highest it's been on record. However, the period of 1989 to 2003 (beginning of current 30 year average) had some very mild March values, with 11 of those 15 years being over 7C, and the average being 7.2C overall. So while the March 30 year average may well rise for another few years as the cool Marchs of the mid 80s exit the average, it will begin to fall back later this decade unless we have a run of very mild March values soon.

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The last 10 years have seen very variable March's - we've had some cold ones 2006, 2010 and most notably 2013. Very mild ones in 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 most notably and 2014 an a couple of average ones in 2008 and 2015.

March and April I always believe are months that are most likely to see wild swings in CET values, from warm to cold in the space of a few days and you can never quite be as sure as in other months what the end result might be until the very last few days.

I'll reserve judgement on this March until near the month's end - current signals suggest a colder than average start at least.

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On ‎19‎/‎02‎/‎2016 at 6:28 PM, Lettucing Gutted said:

12C  :(  Last sub 2C March in 1883.  Last sub 3C, last sub 4C, last sub 5C and last sub 5.5C March in 2013.

Average for this area gives 1.9 for march 2013 and 1.75 for march 1947 which would have been subzero above 300m around here !

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I will go for 4.6C, below average with some cold and potentially snowy spells mixed with some milder conditions at times. It had to happen at some point though like many I wish the switch would have occurred during the middle of winter.

I suspect that March will end up pretty dry, a theme I suspect will persist during this coming Spring.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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