South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 18th February onwards

[seaside 60]

Bright sunny morning, 4c, feeling fresh in the winds.
Or in BBC terms feeling bitterly cold in the north west winds, dont forget to wrap up warm!!!!!

[alexisj9]

Stared off cloudy, think it might have rained just before I got up by the look of it. Been dry, cloud all gone now, feels nice in the sun. Wind blowing direct from the north here and feels chilly.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Glorious day! 

[Daniel*]

I'd say there is rather high chance of some folk seeing snowfall between Fri/Sat.

GFS has some frontal snow moderate/heavy at 0600 starting as rain on the southern flank of the system are better uppers/thicknesses so fingers crossed oh the cliches 

[Southender]

All warnings now removed by METO for Fri/Sat in our region with regards to poss snow/ice. Typical.

Edited March 3, 2016 by Southender

[Ben Lewis]

10 minutes ago, Southender said:

All warnings now removed by METO for Fri/Sat in our region with regards to poss snow/ice. Typical.

Yep.. Just as I said yesterday, was up at Luton airport yesterday evening and it was pouring with rain. Absolutely no chance of Friday producing snow on another marginal basis. 

Even the ice warning has gone.. What a joke this winter has been. 

Cant wait to see the first warm charts appearing, hopefully not long now! 

[steveinsussex]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

I'd say there is rather high chance of some folk seeing snowfall between Fri/Sat.

GFS has some frontal snow moderate/heavy at 0600 starting as rain on the southern flank of the system are better uppers/thicknesses so fingers crossed oh the cliches 

And then the warnings get removed

 

brilliant

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Glorious day! 

 

Not bad here either.  Some cumulus/stratocumulus/cirrocumulus, but generally sunny.

Edited March 3, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[JennyJane1]

Just been out, some very dark clouds around but dry no breeze. Overheard two youngsters in the town agreeing how cold it is today. Its a nice warm spring day. Dunno how they would cope if we actually had any winter weather.

[slater]

Lovely here in Norfolk no wind 9c and people sitting outside having lunch. Lovely early spring day, not what the coldies want to hear and any talk of any hint of snow has well gone out of the window ha ha! Lol what a surprise 

[alexisj9]

Temp here 7.8 wind NNW fair weather cloud floating about, looks a little like showers are trying to develop but conditions are wrong for them to get going.

[alexisj9]

Winds turning now currently wnw so will probably be SW in an hour or two.

[Daniel*]

4 hours ago, steveinsussex said:

And then the warnings get removed

 

brilliant

Probably a good thing! 

Thankfully I do not get carried away with MetO warnings looking at the Hirlam suggest it might be a silly move the stalling occlusion does eventually make its way down S into nightfall so some snow for those S of M4 before the day is out?.....even before parts of East Anglia like Peterborough may have seen a prolonged spell of snow, according to this model temperatures struggling 2-3C as of 1600, which does not remove the threat of precip being just snow on uplands say 200-300m on some hill, something which I think the warnings have not highlighted well with evaporative cooling being a decisive factor, although this appears more like a N Midlands event will be interesting to watch it unfold.

 

Edited March 3, 2016 by Daniel*

[ady]

Sunny and bright here in lewes, east sussex ,, still chilly tho ,, 

[seaside 60]

Why do people post those pretty useless snow charts, none of them have been any good this winter.

Those hatched lines are as good as my child drawing on them, esp the GFS ones.
They are hardly worth the space here on NW, not to be bias the NW ones arent up tp much either lol...

[seaside 60]

I mean those Hirlam ones show rain over the south/south east at 9pm fri.
The nearest the MO radar has any rain is north of the wash to Cardiff.

It will change of course, but total poo charts.

[Daniel*]

Just now, seaside 60 said:

Why do people post those pretty useless snow charts, none of them have been any good this winter.

Those hatched lines are as good as my child drawing on them, esp the GFS ones.
They are hardly worth the space here on NW, not to be bias the NW ones arent up tp much either lol...

What do you propose posting nothing? It is quite silly they do match up fairly close on occasion. Hirlam is quite a respectable model. Do not let past disappointments deceive you.  

[Ben Lewis]

25 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

What do you propose posting nothing? It is quite silly they do match up fairly close on occasion. Hirlam is quite a respectable model. Do not let past disappointments deceive you.  

I think it's just that, disappointment after disappointment throughout this winter. What pathetic attempt there has been of snow has always been the wrong side of marginal. 

I don't blame @seaside 60 getting frustrated with certain models claiming it will snow in our region, the Meto have banished the warnings & their text forecast has no mention of snow, not even sleet just rain rain rain all the way. 

I admire your optimism I really do, especially after this awful winter but I'm afraid like others I'd have to side with the Meto over a Hirlam model.

The same model had that had rain turning to snow a few weeks back 12 hours out. It didn't even sleet on the chilterns & downs. The fact that BBC forecasts and Meto are choosing not to side with it this time is a big giveaway! 

Dont let certain models deceive you    

Edited March 3, 2016 by Ben Lewis

[Ben Lewis]

Also Tomasz on the latest BBC forecast 

"no snow expected in the south, we have no concerns here"

"snow only for Northern England and North Wales"

Right winter I'm done with you now, can we have Spring here please  

[seaside 60]

42 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

What do you propose posting nothing? It is quite silly they do match up fairly close on occasion. Hirlam is quite a respectable model. Do not let past disappointments deceive you.  

You are very right in posting them no cherry picking just what they show...

Its just I personally feel they are very poor, every time some one posts a chart to show snow, my heart skips a beat, but then I realize dont hold yr breath. lol......

[Captain Shortwave]

A sunny morning, but a fairly cloudy afternoon with some light rain showers.

A poor couple of days coming up with a lot of cloud and outbreaks of rain, we might squeeze some wintry showers in the north/north easterly by the end of the weekend and the start of next week.

[Ben Lewis]

4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

A sunny morning, but a fairly cloudy afternoon with some light rain showers.

A poor couple of days coming up with a lot of cloud and outbreaks of rain, we might squeeze some wintry showers in the north/north easterly by the end of the weekend and the start of next week.

Thankfully any heavier rain looks to be in the overnight periods, Saturday/ Sunday during the day may be dull and damp at times but could be worse I suppose. 

Tomorrow looking a fairly bright day with decent sunny spells, max temps of 9c

Edited March 3, 2016 by Ben Lewis

[Kent Blizzard]

9 hours ago, Neilsouth said:

OMG!! I'm surprised nobody mentioned it from the kent folks!

At about 2am, there was a bright flash in my room, then BAAAAAAAAAAANG, a thunderstorm was close by. Within about 10mins, lots and lots of hail, turning the car a lovely white. Woke up this morning all gone

I blamed that on lager thought I was imagining it lol

[Captain Shortwave]

58 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Thankfully any heavier rain looks to be in the overnight periods, Saturday/ Sunday during the day may be dull and damp at times but could be worse I suppose. 

Tomorrow looking a fairly bright day with decent sunny spells, max temps of 9c

We might end up okay tomorrow, especially the further south and east you are.

Further on to my feelings for the start of next week.

   

Maybe some snow showers, especially for East Anglia and Kent potentially on Monday before the convective potential is cut off.

Maybe some signs of a warm up as we go through next week, the models all hinting at a fine and pleasant weekend after the next week of mixed and at times cold conditions.

[Lampostwatcher]

Maybe