South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 18th February onwards

[philmd5]

2 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Well it doesn't help in the fact that the air is being mixed in with the Atlantic high pressure.

Also it just aint cold enough across the north sea into Europe, not to say it wont snow though.

Thanks. Personally I hope it does even though it can be a nuisance 

[seaside 60]

Told my girls, it would snow later in the winter like end jan onwards.
Youngest is still asking, dad you know you said it would snow late in the winter!!!
I am quietly hoping from a proper dump of it, even if it last for just a couple of days.
At this rate its wishing for heavy snow showers at best.

[philmd5]

9 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Told my girls, it would snow later in the winter like end jan onwards.
Youngest is still asking, dad you know you said it would snow late in the winter!!!
I am quietly hoping from a proper dump of it, even if it last for just a couple of days.
At this rate its wishing for heavy snow showers at best.

Snowfall is just magical. Everything smells and sounds different, well outdoors anyway. 

[Snoopie42]

1 hour ago, philmd5 said:

Can anyone help me as a fascinated amateur. I see charts like these and can't see why they wouldn't produce snow showers in the South East.

Hi @philmd5 

These charts have recently updated, therefore, if we look at the 06z for 02/03 @ 03.00 we can see that.....

The T850's temps are OK......

.

The region bathed in sub 528 air which helps......

.

Surface temps are marginal at best for snow to settle....

 

However, there is a risk shown that would transfer towards our region by 0.600

 

I think at best it would be a rain to snow event as seen below, however, very marginal.....

 

Most likely will fall as rain, however, where there is a risk there is always hope and as always with the Great British weather some may get a surprise, just when they weren't expecting it !? The biggest problem is that the air is sourced from the North West, which is not great for our region as it's track allows the colder air to be modified / mixed out. Anyway, for now, this event is still in FI and we could see upgrades aswell as downgrades over the next few days, so certainly one to keep an eye on and provide something of interest to discuss. Have a good day.

 

 

[seaside 60]

Forget this next week,

I think the week after IE next weekend onwards reading between the lines is when things might get interesting.
Reading the views from the more experienced personnel, gives me great hope for some proper cold. well for March...
 

[Snoopie42]

5 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Forget this next week,

I think the week after IE next weekend onwards reading between the lines is when things might get interesting.
Reading the views from the more experienced personnel, gives me great hope for some proper cold. well for March...
 

@seaside 60 The charts in FI are certainly raising a few eyebrows and so they should be! We all know the risks of hanging any hopes on synoptics being predicted this far out, however, with a Jet stream profile like this, High Pressure to the West, stretching North to Greenland with Low Pressure to the South East can only be a positive for cold weather enthusiasts!

This would allow Low Pressure systems to run on a S/SE tragectory, barrelling into the UK. If, and a big if we can get some sustained low 850's intrenched across our little Island then things could get interesting. Just when all are trying to forget Winter and are looking forward to some spring warmth it looks as though Autumn is just finishing and Winter arriving?! If these synoptics were to verify I would think it would have a pretty devastating affect to wildlife and anyone that relies on spring warmth to grow crops / food futures for the coming year?  We watch with interest! 

[Neilsouth]

15 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

The lack of replies says it all really.

No-one really that interested anymore and certainly dont believe these drivel into the future charts from GooFuS

Roll on the spring heat, convective clouds and Storms 

 

15 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

 

I didn't believe in Tuesdays week ahead forecast, I didn't believe in any of the models hyped up in the model discussion from December and any forecasts from this forum. Thankfully doing so meant I never felt excited for this winter and that wont change.

What a load of bleep!

 

 

[lassie23]

5 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

I didn't believe in Tuesdays week ahead forecast, I didn't believe in any of the models hyped up in the model discussion from December and any forecasts from this forum. Thankfully doing so meant I never felt excited for this winter and that wont change.

What a load of bleep!

 

 

I follow the OFI (October Fog Index) and sadly I had no fog in October yet again, which meant another snow less winter was on the cards

[Dami]

hubs has just been shopping and got yummy beef stew and crusty rolls to mop up the gravy. So it's got to snow now.

 

[Blessed Weather]

Against my expectations the cloud cover has thinned and started breaking up here. With some hazy sunny spells in the last hour the temp has edged up to 6.7C.

Cloud cover 14.20

[SMU]

Winters over people ( for us )

 

see you next year unless something spectacular happens in the next 10 days 

s

[Eskimo]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Winters over people ( for us )

 

see you next year unless something spectacular happens in the next 10 days 

s

You can't say Winter is over and then in the same post say, 'unless something spectacular happens in the next 10 days'. That refers that there may still be a chance. 

[Neilsouth]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Winters over people ( for us )

 

see you next year unless something spectacular happens in the next 10 days 

s

It never started

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Winters over people ( for us )

 

see you next year unless something spectacular happens in the next 10 days 

s

Don't forget to use the October Fog Index, it will save you from wasting your time chasing snow that will never arrive.

[Daniel*]

Typically today would have been much colder...

Here's why for the overall lack of potency. I have not been so keen to believe in this global warming malarkey but it appears something is changing in global weather patterns. 

 

Edited February 27, 2016 by Daniel*

[Gowon]

Our world is warming that's a fact. Is it man made? More than likely.. Hopefully with the upcoming solar minimum, la nina and eastern qbq we will see more snowy winters cos I can't believe with all these nice synoptics we're having, yet still we cannot tap into proper cold. 

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, Vivian said:

Our world is warming that's a fact. Is it man made? More than likely.. Hopefully with the upcoming solar minimum, la nina and eastern qbq we will see more snowy winters cos I can't believe with all these nice synoptics we're having, yet still we cannot tap into proper cold. 

I think the cluster of mild winters is coming to an end. Everyone thought cold winters were over before and then 2008/2009/2010 happened and March 2013.

[Dami]

Eastbourne had snow at the end of feb, beginning of march in 2005. And I mean quite a lot of snow.

still some hope.

[Daniel*]

[Gowon]

8 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I think the cluster of mild winters is coming to an end. Everyone thought cold winters were over before and then 2008/2009/2010 happened and March 2013.

True.. I don't know about everyone else, but snowless winters are so pointless. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Well not a bad day, but there is a really hilarity to being in a fresh easterly flow with 850s of -8C over the region, and then see surface temperatures hit 6-8C (At or slightly below normal).

[Daniel*]

I would not say it is GAMEOVER for snow even this far south.

ENS depict quite chilly air for early March not exceptionally so, but it does not rule it out predominately wet interspersed by something wintry at times? Clearly the timing is going to be critical and if it does settle it wouldn't stick around for long... This winter has been full of let downs time for March to buck this trend 

[Pixel]

I predict a volatile, cold end to winter at the end of March - purely based on observing the stratosphere warming in a weeks time which was preceded two weeks ago by another in this year.

50p bet (-:

The 'larger than life' lady has yet to sing a final song this season... who's going to win 50 pence? = Me!

Straw hats on the table...

Edited February 27, 2016 by Pixel
strat

[Kent Blizzard]

I don't usually give up but for this winter I have, no point chasing fantasy snow charts, if you look back early this week & last weekend the charts for this weekend especially Sunday was showing snow, same cycle all winter, plenty of teases without a finish.

[alexisj9]

17 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

I don't usually give up but for this winter I have, no point chasing fantasy snow charts, if you look back early this week & last weekend the charts for this weekend especially Sunday was showing snow, same cycle all winter, plenty of teases without a finish.

Only problem with snow is ppn, the other factors seem very favourable, Shame it's a dry easterly, north-easterly.