South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 18th February onwards

[Blessed Weather]

Thank goodness! The North Sea cack is retreating north and breaking up nicely this morning with some sunny spells. The temp has risen from 9C to 12.6C in the last hour.

The outlook for Bank Holiday Monday is continuing to cause headaches according to Carol on the beeb this morning. To quote "it's already changed again this morning". She wasn't kidding with that statement!! Take a look at the difference between the chart she was showing at 07.15 and the chart she showed at 07.45. Both for 15.00 Monday.

So did GFS picked up on the move back west of the Low Pressure and it's heavy rain (shown on the 12z yesterday and 0z overnight run) before the Met Office did this morning?

Whatever, it's looking like yesterday's "soggy" description by @lassie23 is looking on the money!

Met Office at 07.15  07.45 chart and Naga horrified!!

GFS 0z 06.00  12.00  18.00

 

[Ben Lewis]

Much better day today then yesterday. Temp up to 18c at the moment, may squeeze a 20c! Compared to yesterdays high of 11c it feels so different out there.

 

[stainesbloke]

A glorious late Spring day here with long sunny periods and just a few clouds. Light winds and 22C currently with some thundery interest moving up from France perhaps....

[Captain Shortwave]

It took its damn time but the cloud has melted away during this afternoon. It is sunny now and with pretty much no wind it feels very pleasant out there.

[Meggy]

Hi everyone! My daughter is going to We R Festival in Upminster on Saturday and is unsure whether to wear wellies or not! Can anyone help with what the weather may be like? She has heard it will be nice or could be pouring? Thanks  

[Blessed Weather]

1 hour ago, Meggy said:

Hi everyone! My daughter is going to We R Festival in Upminster on Saturday and is unsure whether to wear wellies or not! Can anyone help with what the weather may be like? She has heard it will be nice or could be pouring? Thanks  

Hi Meggy. What your daughter has heard is correct, in so much as there could be some heavy scattered showers around and therefore it's possible it could be pouring! But on balance, there seems a higher chance that Upminster will be fortunate enough to miss any showers and stay dry. Temps should be around 20C to 22C, so pleasantly warm. A quick check of three high res models shows 2 out of 3 supporting 'dry' for early afternoon Saturday - but that still means 1 says wet is possible! So it would seem sensible for your daughter to take something water-proof, just in case.

Here's the latest Met Office forecast (updated 19.12 this evening) for 15.00 on Saturday afternoon:

[Captain Shortwave]

1 hour ago, Meggy said:

Hi everyone! My daughter is going to We R Festival in Upminster on Saturday and is unsure whether to wear wellies or not! Can anyone help with what the weather may be like? She has heard it will be nice or could be pouring? Thanks  

It should be a decent enough day, there is the risk of a heavy, thundery downpour which would be slow moving, but you would be unlucky to catch one.

Up to around 22C in the capital, so feeling warm and quite humid.

Ah, pretty much as Blessed weather said above

[alexisj9]

Still cloudy here, sun not even trying to break through yet.

[Flash Elvis]

Was a very pleasant morning with clear sunny skies now we are under some skud 

 

[fulham snow]

Sun now out here in Epsom and the feels very pleasant in the sun.Yesterday talking about storm come tonight now nothing and Monday anyones guess including the BBC

[stainesbloke]

Lovely day here after the early mid-level muck cleared away to the NE. Light-ish winds and currently 19C.

[magicpatch]

Hey all!

I'm running at 10k in London on Monday - starts at 10am - do you think we are likely to miss the worse of this potential rain? I'm just not sure who to believe, the BBC keep chopping and changing, although BBC Online for London has it dry throughout the morning. The forecast on this site suggests the worse won't come until later the evening - if at all! Looks like it will be windy regardless! Just unsure what to expect, and therefore what to wear!

Thanks.

Edited May 27, 2016 by magicpatch

[Flash Elvis]

Rain...... didn't see that coming today in the South East and Big Drops as well

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Decent day here after a foggy start, sunny spells and fair weather cloud. A high so far of 18C with a light north easterly breeze.

[tomp456]

Think I'm a bit too far east to be in with a shout for the westerly stuff, and too far west for any French imports that may scrape the extreme SE of Kent later. 

In other news the sky is blue and water is wet. 

[lassie23]

3 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Lovely day here after the early mid-level muck cleared away to the NE. Light-ish winds and currently 19C.

Muckless here tooalthough there is potential muck forecast  to muck up Bank Holiday Monday.

[alexisj9]

Nice and clear here now, a bit of haze around though. No fair weather cloud at all. A perfect day, not much wind either 

[Milocation]

we may even have a hot bank holiday Monday for once!!!

[alexisj9]

If you're in kent keep an eye to the S showers building on the coast, do not know if they will do anything though. I'm too far East so far.

[alexisj9]

Just had some lightning, quite far away, but close enough to here the thunder slightly.

[Blessed Weather]

Looking like today and tomorrow are going to be very pleasant for most in the Region, with some good sunny spells and warm temps. Here, the earlier cloud has now melted away and the sun is shining. A day in the garden beckons.

Monday continues to look disappointing with a cool, stiff N/NE'ly wind and rain moving in - although it might not arrive in the west of the Region until the evening. Well that's the view of the Met Office and the Arpege model. However, NMM (on it's own) brings the rain in by morning.

Arpege 15.00  20.00

 

NMM much earlier 10.00

[stainesbloke]

Quite a cloudy start here but looks like it'll break up soon before some of us see some possibly very heavy showers/thunderstorms a bit later....Feeling reasonably warm due to quite high humidity (80%) and currently 14C.

[Dami]

Cloudy start, light breeze and now sun. Got bog all again last night, expecting bog all this weekend. 

Except monday, when bedford will get drizzle. 

[alexisj9]

Don't think I'll see a storm later today, had my one close rumble last night, Never seen such strange storms though.

[Daniel*]

Hazy sunshine not bad at all a very decent Spring apart from convective rainfall it has been very dry, the models depict temperatures going above the average as we crawl into June.