South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 18th February onwards

[Ben Lewis]

2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Well, that is entirely dependant on the late Feb sun, under cloud cover temps will struggle. In mid winter days would have been much colder say no higher than 2C for most this weekend. Unfortunate.

Some pics from this morning  

Edit: @Surrey you have to be optimistic or you would go mad

Keep your hair on..well I just illustrated where the risk comes from clearly the threat would come later in the day, I trust the MetO over you!  

 

I think it's the other way round, being optimistic makes you go mad. 

Lower your expectations. Meto say an odd wintry shower possible over weekend.. 

[lassie23]

I think we can now well and truly say that WINTER IS OVER! I said it back in November and got a right ticking off.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

Back to the weather temp well on the way down.  What's people's guess on tonight's temps? I reckon -4 poss -5 in the colder prone areas of the region

Edited February 24, 2016 by ajpoolshark

[Captain Shortwave]

So this winter;

It hasn't delivered what many would have hoped, though of course it was very clear that the winter would be at best back loaded for cold (nothing of sorts until mid-January). In the end we have seen 3 potential cold set ups that had a realistic chance of delivering for us. In the end it hasn't resulted in much of note for our region, just like last winter.

On thing I will say is that there is nothing wrong about posting cold charts at the 4-7 day range, just because they haven't materialised this winter doesn't mean that they won't next winter or so on. In fact back in 2012/13 we saw cold spells verifying from around a week out with delicate set ups resolved very well at around day 5 (Thinking of the UKMOs performance during the January cold spell). 

I have enjoyed trying to pick out some cold prospects with some stunning output in a range which you would feel would have a good chance of getting close to verifying. Unfortunately a series of very strong and conflicting signals have hampered the model output this winter with anything other than zonal westerlies being difficult to pick up and as such meant some very disappointing results at the business end of these colder periods.

In the end I have enjoyed some of the fun and games of the chase this winter even if the results have been poor. One thing I will say it is fine to be positive and ramp a little, especially if the output is within 7 days or so, it is also fine to be more reserved but that doesn't mean that every cold spell should descend into a fight between the two groups. Maybe I need to learn more banter perhaps

 

[Ben Lewis]

6 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

So this winter;

It hasn't delivered what many would have hoped, though of course it was very clear that the winter would be at best back loaded for cold (nothing of sorts until mid-January). In the end we have seen 3 potential cold set ups that had a realistic chance of delivering for us. In the end it hasn't resulted in much of note for our region, just like last winter.

On thing I will say is that there is nothing wrong about posting cold charts at the 4-7 day range, just because they haven't materialised this winter doesn't mean that they won't next winter or so on. In fact back in 2012/13 we saw cold spells verifying from around a week out with delicate set ups resolved very well at around day 5 (Thinking of the UKMOs performance during the January cold spell). 

I have enjoyed trying to pick out some cold prospects with some stunning output in a range which you would feel would have a good chance of getting close to verifying. Unfortunately a series of very strong and conflicting signals have hampered the model output this winter with anything other than zonal westerlies being difficult to pick up and as such meant some very disappointing results at the business end of these colder periods.

In the end I have enjoyed some of the fun and games of the chase this winter even if the results have been poor. One thing I will say it is fine to be positive and ramp a little, especially if the output is within 7 days or so, it is also fine to be more reserved but that doesn't mean that every cold spell should descend into a fight between the two groups. Maybe I need to learn more banter perhaps

 

Great post although I admire your enjoyment of 'chase' for an event that never happened the whole winter. 

Im exhausted thinking about it if that's what 2016/17 has in store. 

[A.J]

a few posts pruned in the interests of keeping the peace...........As we all know, the weather can bring out the best and occasionally the worst in all us weather enthusiasts, and indeed, debate is a focal point of all forums regardless of the topic.

I would though respectfully ask for all to keep debate friendly and 'to the point'.....personal comments, whether deliberate or not often lead to post exchanges that detract from the otherwise good natured chat in the thread.

Thanks 

[Neilsouth]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

I think we can now well and truly say that WINTER IS OVER! I said it back in November and got a right ticking off.

Winter never started  In fact winter has been so bad, I never got told off once in the model section, which for me, is rather rare

[seaside 60]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

I think we can now well and truly say that WINTER IS OVER! I said it back in November and got a right ticking off.

Spring is the new winter, just you wait and see.

[Neilsouth]

On 23/02/2016 at 0:45 AM, Kent Blizzard said:

Come to puppa  

I Just sent that to the BBC Weather Twitter account, let's see if they defend themselves over this one

[Mark wheeler]

Wonder what's causing the constant precipitation developing over Calais .

[SMU]

Yeah I saw that

looks epic ^^^ 

[Blessed Weather]

18 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Wonder what's causing the constant precipitation developing over Calais .

There seems to be a convergence of the wind flow so that the NW'ly swings into a NE'ly off the SE coast of the UK and funnels towards Calais area. It's maybe the Calais equivalent of the Kent or Thames streamer when the wind is in that direction. I think the impressive thing is that the Arpege High Res model has very accurately picked up on this happening! Hats off to it! 

Arpege precip for 21.00 local this evening:   Wind direction:

Edited February 24, 2016 by Blessed Weather
typo

[Mark wheeler]

3 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

There seems to be a convergence of the wind flow so that the NW'ly swings into a NE'ly off the SE coast of the UK and funnels towards Calais area. It's maybe the Calais equivalent of the Kent or Thames streamer when the wind is in that direction. I think the impressive thing is that the Arpege High Res model has very accurately picked up on this happening! Hats off to it! 

Arpege precip for 21.00 local this evening:   Wind direction:

Thanks for a brilliant explanation blessed weather . Thanks

[Nick F]

EC, GFS and UKMO bring a line of precip north across southern counties on Friday, UKMet fax chart for 12z Friday picks out a trough. Partial thickness look OK for snow though dew points look a little too marginal around the band of precip on GFS

Before then, will any of those wintry showers across northern England make it down here by the end of the night?

[Daniel*]

Expertly said by Malcolm  

Well the showers feeding into the wash were not caught by high res a dusting or so.

Brrr it's blooming cold out there ppn please?

[Mapantz]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Well the showers feeding into the wash were not caught by high res a dusting or so.

The trusty NetWx had them! 

[Kentspur]

So whats the southern extent expected of those wintry showers north of our region i notice Hertfordshire have a yellow warning for light snow showers/ice, could it be there?

Edited February 24, 2016 by Kentspur

[Daniel*]

I woke up absoloutely parched I thought why not check the radar.

No surprise why the gritters are out as it is bone dry.

A fair few of us waking up to a dusting/light covering if you're early enough. 

[Biggin]

Whoa light snow flurries atm

[Great Plum]

Light snow flurry in Reigate

[TheGate]

Just had a nice flurry here

[Alibets]

Light snow in Dartford !

 

[SMU]

Light flurry in greenhithe

looks like the cars have dandruff !

[SMU]

& we have snow on the scale up to 3 here

A light dusting on the sea level floor of greenhithe

settling everywhere

[lassie23]

Just as I declare that winter is over, I wake up to five snow grains on my car