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Captain Shortwave

South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 18th February onwards

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Okay new thread for a fresh start and a new chase. Yeah I know I think we are all mentally exhausted after the frustration that has dominated this winter.

GFS/UKMO/ECM this morning

gfs-0-96.png?0   UW120-21.GIF?18-05   ECM1-120.GIF?18-12 

Another chance during the first half of next week with arctic maritime air pushing across the UK with 850s down to around -6/7C predicted. That said the winds don't seem to back enough north to offer much interest in our region (probably cold and sunny with a couple of night frosts). 

So more drama to come I'm afraid and we haven't got to the mid-range where the polar profile is looking to become increasingly blocked.

So usual rules apply, try to stay reasonably on topic and try to post in a respectful and friendly manner. 

Thankyou :) 

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If anyone was thinking it was marginal- at 600ft asl in north Kent it was all rain this morning. Shame but not unexpected. Canada in a week. If it doesn't snow there then I'll throw my toys out lol 

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3 minutes ago, Nemesis said:

If anyone was thinking it was marginal- at 600ft asl in north Kent it was all rain this morning. Shame but not unexpected. Canada in a week. If it doesn't snow there then I'll throw my toys out lol 

The only chance of wintriness as I see it is at 400feet + from around 0830-1100 in the north downs of east Kent.  Somewhere like Whitfield, Hawkinge, Paddlesworth.  50/50 to see some flakes there at best

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15 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

At least the sky looks snowy :D 

It does doesn't it!

the temp only got down to 3.3 last night! 

The weekend looks mild so I will just look forward to getting out in the garden! 

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1 hour ago, Nemesis said:

If anyone was thinking it was marginal- at 600ft asl in north Kent it was all rain this morning. Shame but not unexpected. Canada in a week. If it doesn't snow there then I'll throw my toys out lol 

Well viewing the radar the frontal precip did not stall thus the 'catch up game' was not possible.  An epic fail by the MetO however the uncertainty of that scenario was sky-high all the way through.

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Hmm question remains do we continue the chase or give up and hope for better next winter. Yes I know 2013 was unusual in March. It just doesn't look like its gonna be our year. None of the players have gone out way this winter...I think everything has been against us. Even when holidaying in Valencia I was watching then last night was ridiculous in here. I will keep watching and posting but I am tempted to turn to spring and the first 20 degrees alto cheatingly I have already had that in Spain last week.

 

Come on weather let's go one more time 

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The GFS 06z looks really wet for us down here.. No chance of snow what so ever.. Come on spring.. You just know this winter is going to drag it's heels and keep the disappointment going.

 

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1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Well viewing the radar the frontal precip did not stall thus the 'catch up game' was not possible.  An epic fail by the MetO however the uncertainty of that scenario was sky-high all the way through.

Can't really claim it is an "epic fail" if there was so much uncertainty? They highlighted the risk but acknowledged the fact that it might not happen given how finely-balanced the situation was, and so it is no real great surprise that nothing has happened...

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Did anyone see a single flake in the end this morning? Was out for a curry last night and was all rain til I got home around midnight, I just went to bed in the end.

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46 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Can't really claim it is an "epic fail" if there was so much uncertainty? They highlighted the risk but acknowledged the fact that it might not happen given how finely-balanced the situation was, and so it is no real great surprise that nothing has happened...

I don't think it was even uncertain, the warnings were completely unwarranted. I'll defend the Met Office when there is unfair criticism but they dropped the ball last night. There was nothing to suggest settling snow last night, I would hesitate to even call it marginal for most.

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27 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I don't think it was even uncertain, the warnings were completely unwarranted. I'll defend the Met Office when there is unfair criticism but they dropped the ball last night. There was nothing to suggest settling snow last night, I would hesitate to even call it marginal for most.

I wouldn't really say that as some in this thread did report sleet, the met probably got it wrong by 1 or 2 degrees, no one can be that perfect. Snow in the south is always difficult to pin point. If they didn't highlight the slight risk and things did fall right, there would be far more complaints from people who got caught out in it.

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7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I wouldn't really say that as some in this thread did report sleet, the met probably got it wrong by 1 or 2 degrees, no one can be that perfect. Snow in the south is always difficult to pin point. If they didn't highlight the slight risk and things did fall right, there would be far more complaints from people who got caught out in it.

I still wouldn't call uncomfirmed reports of sleet as enough to justify the warning but what's done is done. I still think they went overkill and I agree with your last point.

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I think the biggest problem this winter (and moving forward with any more cold shots) is that the cold really has only been "shots" of cold, not lasting longer than 2-3 days. The problem is that with warmer than average SSTs the cold just gets swept away really easily. It's not enriched and cooler ground temps, SSTs so on.. 

Really, to stand a decent chance in Winter down south you need absoultey spot on conditions, or like I always say.. Get the cold in first get it enriched and lovely jubbly.

We literally have been very unlucky with many things driving the weather this year one being El Nino which was really off the record.. 

I stated back in November that the UK was about to experience a warmer and wetter winter thanks to various things I thought would impact it. Another impact on this years weather was the massive cold pool sitting in the Atlantic. But nobody really has a 100% answer to what this really does to our weather.

So taking away the finer detail of Winter and the "events" so far (more to come im sure before Winters out) we just haven't really had the best of set ups and conditions to produce some wintry weather. December saw temps way way higher than what they should be, remember everything has a knock on effect in the atmosphere and eventually down on the ground.

I'm no expert and a mere novice when it comes to weather (senior and bigger posters can elaborate and will do at the end of winter) 

So moving forward after yesterdays banter and another let down I think unless we get a good dig in of cold before March goes out winter 15/16 will go down as a wetter, milder winter with a few cold shots. Of course I speak only for our region and not the rest of the UK.

Just to also add, Ideally snow in March and even in April is a complete waste in my opinion, everyday now the sun is getting stronger and stronger.. Even if you have sub 0 temps with beautiful clear skies in March/April any snow cover gets melted in hours thanks to the suns ever increasing heat and strength.

To end, I raise my glass to some early warmth from spring and a wonderful hot summer with thunderstorms and BBQs!

Edited by Surrey
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14 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I think the biggest problem this winter (and moving forward with any more cold shots) is that the cold really has only been "shots" of cold, not lasting longer than 2-3 days. The problem is that with warmer than average SSTs the cold just gets swept away really easily. It's not enriched and cooler ground temps, SSTs so on.. 

Have a look through the operational SSTA charts at previous years. I have had decent snow events with warm and cold anomalies being recorded.

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34 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I think the biggest problem this winter (and moving forward with any more cold shots) is that the cold really has only been "shots" of cold, not lasting longer than 2-3 days. The problem is that with warmer than average SSTs the cold just gets swept away really easily. It's not enriched and cooler ground temps, SSTs so on.. 

Really, to stand a decent chance in Winter down south you need absoultey spot on conditions, or like I always say.. Get the cold in first get it enriched and lovely jubbly.

We literally have been very unlucky with many things driving the weather this year one being El Nino which was really off the record.. 

I stated back in November that the UK was about to experience a warmer and wetter winter thanks to various things I thought would impact it. Another impact on this years weather was the massive cold pool sitting in the Atlantic. But nobody really has a 100% answer to what this really does to our weather.

So taking away the finer detail of Winter and the "events" so far (more to come im sure before Winters out) we just haven't really had the best of set ups and conditions to produce some wintry weather. December saw temps way way higher than what they should be, remember everything has a knock on effect in the atmosphere and eventually down on the ground.

I'm no expert and a mere novice when it comes to weather (senior and bigger posters can elaborate and will do at the end of winter) 

So moving forward after yesterdays banter and another let down I think unless we get a good dig in of cold before March goes out winter 15/16 will go down as a wetter, milder winter with a few cold shots. Of course I speak only for our region and not the rest of the UK.

Just to also add, Ideally snow in March and even in April is a complete waste in my opinion, everyday now the sun is getting stronger and stronger.. Even if you have sub 0 temps with beautiful clear skies in March/April any snow cover gets melted in hours thanks to the suns ever increasing heat and strength.

To end, I raise my glass to some early warmth from spring and a wonderful hot summer with thunderstorms and BBQs!

need glass called clima control which stops to much sun rays over the south east to stops any warming

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7 minutes ago, fulham snow said:

need glass called clima control which stops to much sun rays over the south east to stops any warming

haha, we also need to fill in the channel, fill the north sea in, dig a channel just south of the midlands (lol) and one last thing blow up the houses of parliment..

 

But thats an ideal world:rofl:

 

I seriously think imports this summer might actually happen.. I recall last year saying it looked better but not quite right but this year thanks to a again warmer than average winter those SSTs (the killer) are looking good already.. 

SST.thumb.png.8f7af0d96709efa2350831c651

56c5c919b8586_SST1.thumb.gif.0bd02f02550

see 11 degrees creeping down the channel already plus see 12 degrees down in Biscay!

 

Globally looks like this..

56c5c97f8aabc_SSTabsoluteGlobal.thumb.gi

 

Edited by Surrey
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1 hour ago, Surrey said:

To end, I raise my glass to some early warmth from spring and a wonderful hot summer with thunderstorms and BBQs!

:drunk-emoji:

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I've had some great March snowfalls in North Kent - 2005 with 8 inches was a classic. Yes it doesn't hang around that long but I think given this winter if we achieved even half that for one or two days this website, and people's minds, would go into meltdown.

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47 minutes ago, Nemesis said:

I've had some great March snowfalls in North Kent - 2005 with 8 inches was a classic. Yes it doesn't hang around that long but I think given this winter if we achieved even half that for one or two days this website, and people's minds, would go into meltdown.

Troll Troll Troll lol

I am now hoping that we can get Spring Well on its way....... winter has passed in my eyes tbh.

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1 hour ago, Nemesis said:

I've had some great March snowfalls in North Kent - 2005 with 8 inches was a classic. Yes it doesn't hang around that long but I think given this winter if we achieved even half that for one or two days this website, and people's minds, would go into meltdown.

Indeed, I too have had some fantastic snow falls in March and even had some in April! But it is not the time for snow in my eyes.. YES given the winter we have had this year has been VERY poor we would all take a slice of the pie.

 

But it messes so many things up, crops, insects animals ETC it's really important to get some nice early warmth in spring to get the crops into gear and blossom going :) 

Edited by Surrey

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Just experiencing snowfall suffices I don't care when it falls ie. November/March. I have set the bar low, how many x hours it lays on the ground does not overly bother me, the strengthening sun has its plus and minuses with convection. It would be nice to just watch a snow event unfold & I tend to think the first bit of March can still be wintry only in mid/late March I'll put my hands up and call it a day. 

Spring early warmth like 2012? I did not like that, 20c plus days in March doesn't feel right to me....

If anything a cool Spring is beneficial for farmers/gardeners, a early pounce of Spring warmth followed by a hard frost can be very damaging. 

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6 o clock and still just light :yahoo:

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One day we'll all be able to say to our grandchildren; I survived the snow event of 18/02/2016. :rofl:

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