south indian ocean Intense Tropical Cyclone Uriah

[Somerset Squall]

Another tropical cyclone has formed in the South Indian Ocean, in the east of the basin. Uriah formed yesterday, west of Cocos Island, in Australia's area of responsibility, hence it was named by them. Winds are at 45kts according to JTWC. Uriah is forecast to head west-southwest over the coming days and continue to strengthen as shear is low and waters plenty warm. Thereafter, a southward bend in track is predicted as Uriah rounds the western side of the steering ridge. This will force Uriah over cooler waters by day 5, inducing weakening. JTWC are forecasting Uriah to peak at cat 2 hurricane strength.

 

Uriah will cross 90E and into MeteoFrance's area of responsibility later today. Uriah should not affect land.

Edited February 19, 2016 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Uriah has been quite slow to strengthen due to some unexpected shear as it moves southwestwards. However, shear has now eased, and a quicker intensification trend has began. Winds are up to 75kts. Uriah is developing an eye and has some pretty intense convection surrounding it. JTWC expect a peak of 95kts as Uriah's track bends to the south. Weakening will begin in a few days as shear rises and watets cool along track in the long term.

 

 

 

[Somerset Squall]

Uriah has rapidly strengthened overnight, with winds now at 105kts according to JTWC. Peak now forecast to be 130kts.

[Somerset Squall]

Winds are now at 115kts, cat 4 on the SS scale.

[Somerset Squall]

Uriah peaked at 125kts. The cyclone is now weakening fast as it moves south through high shear and cool sea temps. Winds are down to 65kts. Further weakening should occur until dissipation in a few days, possibly sooner.