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Another  tropical cyclone has formed in the Southern Pacific, in the Coral Sea, northwest of New Caledonia. Winds are at 45kts according to JTWC. Shear is currently low, waters warm and outflow good. For the next 24hrs, this should allow for Tatiana to intensify. Thereafter, weakening will occur as Tatiana tracks south along the western flank of a steering ridge to the east, which will send Tatiana into cooler waters and increased shear. JTWC expect a peak of 55kts before this occurs.

 

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Tatiana has strengthened to 55kts according to JTWC. The cyclone has probably peaked as the rapidly intensifying Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston to the east is not only inflicting shear over Tatiana, it is also stifling it's outflow. Tatiana has made the southward turn and will weaken from now.

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