SPRING 2016: UNSETTLED

[Nick L]

Are you still certain of a chilly and unsettled May overall?

[Methuselah]

Thank goodness the next ten days are looking to be warmer than average...

[iapennell]

3 hours ago, Nick L said:

Are you still certain of a chilly and unsettled May overall?

Nothing much has changed with regards to certain fundamentals to make me change my mind- North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, deep tropics hotter than usual and cooler-than-normal subtropical North Pacific leading to stronger NE Trade Winds and extent of Arctic sea-ice all pointing to a cool (and stronger than usual) westerly flow into Britain. However I did not rule out the odd short warm spells in May in my original forecast, pointing out that with the Circumpolar Vortex becoming relatively weak by May it is subject to interruptions leading to sharp variations in the weather at times. That said,  I also expect cooler-than-normal conditions to persist for much of June with the pattern of sea-surface temperature anomalies liable to place an upper trough just east of Britain for much of the month.

[Frank Trough]

On ‎03‎/‎02‎/‎2016 at 1:57 AM, iapennell said:

"May 2016 is certain to be wet and chilly with few warm spells even in the South: Prevailing stiff West or NW winds will keep temperatures on the cool side and frosts will continue to threaten gardens in Scotland and the North with clear nights between frontal bands. I am confident that May will be like this because the upper Westerlies will be in a four-wave Pattern and with cold cold water in the NW Atlantic one of these upper troughs will be close to Britain. "

things don't look especially "chilly" for the time being? You are still expecting a shift to west/northwesterlies and below average temperatures?

 

Edited May 5, 2016 by Certain kind of fool

[Nouska]

If I remember correctly, Ian wasn't expecting a SSW. The fact there was an early March final warming - the strongest in the limited record - has probably shifted the balance from the westerly angle. The resulting negative AO and NAO has also had an impact on the Atlantic SST profile: negative anomaly is warming out at present.

I see he has made no mention of the rapid ENSO transition in his summer forecast - will be interesting to see where that goes as there are very few comparative analogues and none with a rapidly dwindling Arctic ice profile.

[iapennell]

23 hours ago, Nouska said:

If I remember correctly, Ian wasn't expecting a SSW. The fact there was an early March final warming - the strongest in the limited record - has probably shifted the balance from the westerly angle. The resulting negative AO and NAO has also had an impact on the Atlantic SST profile: negative anomaly is warming out at present.

I see he has made no mention of the rapid ENSO transition in his summer forecast - will be interesting to see where that goes as there are very few comparative analogues and none with a rapidly dwindling Arctic ice profile.

Indeed I was not expecting a Sudden Stratospheric Warming over the Arctic in early March, this is probably the reason why March has ended up a drier than normal in Scotland with high-pressure around northern Britain for the middle of the month. I am aware that El-Nino has now reversed and have factored this into my summer forecast along with the likelihood of more hurricanes because tropical sea surface temperatures are running higher than normal at this time. I note that the Daily Express is carrying headlines saying "Hottest Summer Ever on the way". Whilst I believe there will be a good deal of fine warm weather in the Midlands and South in July and August I do not think this will apply to June 2016, nor do I believe Scotland will get much in the way of very warm sunny weather at all (eastern Scotland and NE England will fare better in July/August).

As regards the current month we have a few warm days with SE winds; I still assert May will end of unsettled and cooler than normal. Looking at the UK Met Office charts winds will be backing to NE by next Friday which would bring much colder conditions from the Baltic and Scandinavia.  And with low-pressure not far to the south-west over coming days (according to said forecast) don't expect it to be dry in the South. I also believe the Westerlies will soon return with cool waters south-west of Britain encouraging high-pressure and (usually) as May progresses depressions stop entering the Med and southern Europe and high-pressure is quick to re-establish itself going into summer in such regions: None of this is conducive to easterly winds over Britain, especially given Europe is warming up and the Arctic ice is already retreated well north of it's normal May position in the European Arctic sector; the jet-stream might trough over-east of Britain to bring depressions into the North Sea but it is not going to move well south of the country given the above-mentioned funamentals of temperature and Arctic ice-cover. 

[iapennell]

During the summer months, and really that includes mid-May onwards, easterlies over Britain tend to be caused by blocking highs to the north that disrupt depression tracks even further north or stops them dead in the North Atlantic. High temperatures all over southern Europe and lower mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic usually prevent the jet-stream carrying depressions south of Britain (that is not to say this never happens, but it is rare and more so in these globally-warmed years). However, this year snow-cover over Scandinavia is low and sea-surface temperatures in the Norwegian Sea are warmer than usual- both of which would discourage blocking and allow depressions to move into these areas.

Henceforth, I am not expecting the easterlies forecast for Britain this week to continue.

[iapennell]

On 5/5/2016 at 13:52, Certain kind of fool said:

things don't look especially "chilly" for the time being? You are still expecting a shift to west/northwesterlies and below average temperatures?

 

I certainly don't expect the forecast easterlies for this week to continue beyond another week, let alone this few days' warmth.  The fundamentals of sea-surface temperatures, retreating Arctic ice, Europe heating up and little snow-cover over Scandinavia will conspire to see to that! 

[karyo]

2 hours ago, iapennell said:

I certainly don't expect the forecast easterlies for this week to continue beyond another week, let alone this few days' warmth.  The fundamentals of sea-surface temperatures, retreating Arctic ice, Europe heating up and little snow-cover over Scandinavia will conspire to see to that! 

Already the models are showing the winds changing direction by midweek and any warmth gets pushed away southwards.

[Lake District Blizzards]

After several warm days and now 2 days of 25c plus another warm day tomorrow, May is significantly above average and will take a lot of cold weather to bring it down to average here

This is exactly what is needed for this area after the dire winter - long may it continue

[northwestsnow]

May is shaping up to be mixed i would say.Second half of the month looks a bit more unsettled than the first but all in all, a mixed month.

I'd like to thank Ian for his forecast which, to all intents and purposes, has been very good indeed

Im very interested in the thoughts for June as its the Euro 2016 footy comp and i have 3 weeks off work - hopefully mornings spent in the garden and afternoons spent glued to the tele, and bet 365

I know Ian is expecting a pretty unsettled month generally as it stands but im pretty sure he will update in any changes between now and the end of may ...

 

[northwestsnow]

Models pointing towards a protracted settled spell for the second half of may- seems to have been a shift towards High Pressure ridging from the azores.

Will be interesting to see how it pans out, personally i would prefer HP influence in  June.

Im sure Ian has an eye on things would be interesting to hear his thoughts

[damianslaw]

On 09/05/2016 at 18:14, Lake District Blizzards said:

After several warm days and now 2 days of 25c plus another warm day tomorrow, May is significantly above average and will take a lot of cold weather to bring it down to average here

This is exactly what is needed for this area after the dire winter - long may it continue

Yes the past few days have really been the tonic here, after months of gloom and doom due to the after effects of the heavy rains of Nov-Jan. The recent dry very warm spell has been most welcomed, pity it couldn't have arrived a week earlier coinciding with the bank holiday. May can be the best month of the year here in terms of dry sunny weather, indeed it often rivals July on the sunshine stakes and tends to be one of our driest months of the year. Recent May's have been disappointing in this respect. After the chilly April, spring growth is now in full gear, and the ground is slowly beginning to firm up somewhat - it is though still fairly saturated.

Looking ahead there are signs the azores high will begin to nudge NW, mmm I'm not a fan of the azores high the boundary line between fine warm dry weather tends to be just to our south with the NW plagued by cloud and murky humid mizzly stuff. It does have a tendency to rear its head as we approach June and we see the return of the westerlies, lets hope we can get a very decent end to May coinciding with school holidays and bank holiday - will be good for the tourist industry. A fine warm spell at the end of May can't be bettered in my book, far better than in the depths of summer (when the back of summer is broken).

[Lake District Blizzards]

Tomorrow looks another cracker, then a cool down but still plenty of sunny spells shown over the weekend.

I will say that already this is the best May since at least 2010 here as no other May since has had any decent weather at all, except 2012 which was absolutely dire until the heatwave in the last week. 

[wishingforsnow]

17 minutes ago, Lake District Blizzards said:

Tomorrow looks another cracker, then a cool down but still plenty of sunny spells shown over the weekend.

I will say that already this is the best May since at least 2010 here as no other May since has had any decent weather at all, except 2012 which was absolutely dire until the heatwave in the last week. 

April - early September 2012 was like a horrific early autumn weather and temperature wise following the warm late Winter and early Spring weather and heatwave in March. Apart from just 5 days to a week long heatwave in the last week of May and July it was weeks and weeks of heavy rain, storms and low pressure systems arriving like buses. A SAD nightmare really. We've just experienced the Winter equivalents with Winter 13/14 and last Winter. 

May 2015 was also a below average cool month dominated by mostly unsettled Atlantic autumn like weather. May 2016 already beats it for me and we're just over 10 days in  I like the heat and dry weather and I like the thunderstorms and humid summer rain it brings afterwards.

Edited May 11, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[damianslaw]

Overall by far the best start to May since 2008, which saw very similiar conditions in the main until around this juncture - the second half was very unsettled though. Looking ahead a cool down on the cards but staying relatively settled, though there are signs the atlantic will become more of a force next week with a marked NW-SE split setting in... but still a good chance we will end up seeing the best May since 1992.. we've already seen the best spell of May weather since late May 2012.

[Lake District Blizzards]

On 5/12/2016 at 19:29, damianslaw said:

Overall by far the best start to May since 2008, which saw very similiar conditions in the main until around this juncture - the second half was very unsettled though. Looking ahead a cool down on the cards but staying relatively settled, though there are signs the atlantic will become more of a force next week with a marked NW-SE split setting in... but still a good chance we will end up seeing the best May since 1992.. we've already seen the best spell of May weather since late May 2012.

May is proving why it can be the best month of the year in the Lake District.

It has rained on 1 day...

Today was looking cool and fairly cloudy but is unbroken sunshine and feels warm in the sun, a stunning day as long as you don't look at a thermometer.

mean max still 2.5c above average 

[MP-R]

On 5/12/2016 at 19:29, damianslaw said:

Overall by far the best start to May since 2008, which saw very similiar conditions in the main until around this juncture - the second half was very unsettled though. Looking ahead a cool down on the cards but staying relatively settled, though there are signs the atlantic will become more of a force next week with a marked NW-SE split setting in... but still a good chance we will end up seeing the best May since 1992.. we've already seen the best spell of May weather since late May 2012.

I think this is most relevant to the northern half of the country. Last week was very wet down here, in fact Wednesday recorded more rain than the whole of April. I suppose this is a symptom of the often slack cyclonic conditions we get in May when it becomes more settled the further north you go. Fortunes could well switch in June when high pressure normally becomes more of a player with the north ending up in the rather cloudy periphery.

[iapennell]

The immediate outlook is for North Atlantic depressions to make a bee-line towards the UK ; it looks like all parts of the country will be getting some particularly wet (and cool) weather from tomorrow Wednesday) onwards. This will make up for the last fortnight which has been dry over much of the country. 

[Summer Sun]

Day time highs back up in Darlington look fairly steady over the next 9 days peaking around 15c and not dropping below 8c overnight so probably not feeling all that cool tbh especially when its not raining

[Polar Maritime]

The last 2 weeks of Spring certainly look unsettled, After a pretty settled/avg Spring here so far in Derbyshire.

Edited May 17, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, iapennell said:

The immediate outlook is for North Atlantic depressions to make a bee-line towards the UK ; it looks like all parts of the country will be getting some particularly wet (and cool) weather from tomorrow Wednesday) onwards. This will make up for the last fortnight which has been dry over much of the country. 

sounds more like Dec, Jan and Feb, temps similar (south) I'd think at times 12-13C

[damianslaw]

On 14/05/2016 at 16:12, Lake District Blizzards said:

May is proving why it can be the best month of the year in the Lake District.

It has rained on 1 day...

Today was looking cool and fairly cloudy but is unbroken sunshine and feels warm in the sun, a stunning day as long as you don't look at a thermometer.

mean max still 2.5c above average 

Overall by far the best start to May since 2008, which saw very similiar conditions in the main until around this juncture - the second half was very unsettled though. Looking ahead a cool down on the cards but staying relatively settled, though there are signs the atlantic will become more of a force next week with a marked NW-SE split setting in... but still a good chance we will end up seeing the best May since 1992.. we've already seen the best spell of May weather since late May 2012.

Yes we've had a lengthy dry period by Lake District standards, and it will be a hard act to record another dry spell of such longevity again this year.. more than a week is tough going. Wish the last 2 weeks were about to start now.. alas the outlook is very mixed, lets hope we can squeeze out a fine end in time for the Bank Holiday, which thankfully is late this year, we had a poor May Day Bank Holiday and it would be sods law to end up with a poor late May bank holiday, given we've had two crackers just gone.

Edited May 18, 2016 by damianslaw

[Lake District Blizzards]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

.Yes we've had a lengthy dry period by Lake District standards, and it will be a hard act to record another dry spell of such longevity again this year.. more than a week is tough going. Wish the last 2 weeks were about to start now.. alas the outlook is very mixed, lets hope we can squeeze out a fine end in time for the Bank Holiday, which thankfully is late this year, we had a poor May Day Bank Holiday and it would be sods law to end up with a poor late May bank holiday, given we've had two crackers just gone.

The last few days were forecast to be poor / mixed

actually it has turned out mainly sunny reaching 15c on every day. Pleasant and seasonal is how i would describe it. 

Indeed it looks as so the next few days will be similar despite the low pressure. Not much rain and some sunny spells mixed in. 

 

All in all a very very good month so far

[iapennell]

http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentrale-t120-t384.htm#120

Looks like the next fortnight will be much more settled with high-pressure over southern Scandinavia and later northern Britain. It looks like the high-pressure will be further east and further north than I expected in my original forecast ; consequentially Britain gets a good deal more fine weather throughout May than originally predicted with the cold north-westerly winds and wet shifted to eastern Europe and the Baltic (judging from the weather charts).

I am happy that my forecasts for March and April were close, in particular the cold spell I expected to occur in late April. However it seems to have proved wide of the mark (in the main) for May with both dry weather and a protracted spell with easterly winds being hall-marks of the month.  Still, as the old Meatloaf song goes "Two Out Of Three Ain't Bad" ; particularly when in late-spring the Westerlies weaken and small interruptions (such as a cold North Sea or a depression) can radically alter weather -patterns from those predicted. I did put such a disclaimer in my original forecast and stated that a colder wetter May was the most certain to happen based on the pattern of sea-surface temperatures and Arctic ice extent combined with the angular momentum budget implications of stiff NE Trade Winds in lower latitudes. 

In the light of changes in sea-surface temperatures around Britain, the fact that the North Sea is indeed colder than usual for late May and the blob of relatively cool water off West Africa I will re-visit my summer forecast and predictions (particularly for June).