SPRING 2016: UNSETTLED

[iapennell]

The weather stats for March 2016 are in, about 0.7C colder than normal for the South and also wetter than normal (but not by a wide margin). Scotland only slightly warmer than normal but also (surprisingly) a bit drier than normal. I predicted March to be wetter and a little colder than normal, but with these anomalies being stronger towards the north-west but I am confident that going into April my original predictions for continued chilly westerlies and NW winds will hold (here in the North Pennines this afternoon temp. is 4C and we have stiff west/NW winds and showers of sleet and hail!). I will let you judge me on my forecast so far and then as the season further unfolds.

If it is any consolation I did predict a fine spell mid-to late April for most of the country (with Scotland and far NW missing out)!

[John Badrick]

On 4/6/2016 at 4:51 PM, iapennell said:

The weather stats for March 2016 are in, about 0.7C colder than normal for the South and also wetter than normal (but not by a wide margin). Scotland only slightly warmer than normal but also (surprisingly) a bit drier than normal. I predicted March to be wetter and a little colder than normal, but with these anomalies being stronger towards the north-west but I am confident that going into April my original predictions for continued chilly westerlies and NW winds will hold (here in the North Pennines this afternoon temp. is 4C and we have stiff west/NW winds and showers of sleet and hail!). I will let you judge me on my forecast so far and then as the season further unfolds.

If it is any consolation I did predict a fine spell mid-to late April for most of the country (with Scotland and far NW missing out)!

 Your forecast going well down here in Cornwall, currently hail and hill snow showers effecting coasts and moors on a chilly north westerly wind. Just read ideas for end of April/ beginning of May, very interesting!!! keep the forecasts coming Ian, always look forward to reading them 

[draztik]

On 3 February 2016 at 1:57 AM, iapennell said:

 

There is a strong likelihood of biting cold Arctic winds sweeping south over Britain at the end of April or the start of May 2016 as the upper Westerlies lock into four-wave Pattern:

^^^^

and the latest ECM ENS , along with umpteen of its latest projections, show exactly that.

 

Mr Pennell, on the money, yet again.

[karyo]

24 minutes ago, draztik said:

^^^^

and the latest ECM ENS , along with umpteen of its latest projections, show exactly that.

 

Mr Pennell, on the money, yet again.

Exactly! I will be looking forward to his winter forecast!

[John Badrick]

6 hours ago, karyo said:

Exactly! I will be looking forward to his winter forecast!

Same here Karyo, let's hope it's a cold one! There's no denying, his forecasts are probably the most accurate 

[Relativistic]

2 hours ago, John Badrick said:

Same here Karyo, let's hope it's a cold one! There's no denying, his forecasts are probably the most accurate 

Agreed, for me one of the most valuable posters on this forum. Keep us informed Mr Pennell, I await your forecasts for Summer and beyond!

[karyo]

From Ian's original post: 

There is a strong likelihood of biting cold Arctic winds sweeping south over Britain at the end of April or the start of May 2016 as the upper Westerlies lock into four-wave Pattern: By this time strong seasonal warming over continental Europe and North America will shift the upper ridges over these regions whilst the NW Atlantic "Cold Pool" will help affix an intervening trough of cold upper air extending down from the Arctic over or to the east of that chilly part of the North Atlantic.  This sort of set-up bodes badly for our part of the world because it means depressions forming south of Greenland sweep south-east over Britain bringing much colder Arctic air behind them

So, keep posted for an abrupt end to the late-April fine spell with icy north or north-westerly winds bringing hail and sleet to the South and east snowfalls to the North. Snow is likely to lie to low levels anywhere north of a line from Preston to Lincoln and as skies clear two or three devastating late spring frosts are likely with minima below -3C in the North and with air frost in the South.

 

This is pretty impressive! Well done Ian!

Karyo

[MP-R]

Looking back over this month, despite the lack of anticyclonic conditions, it's managed to be quite a dry month in this neck of the woods. After a soggy March, the ground has had a chance to dry out a bit. Not long ago I thought next week would be wet but the weather continues to be quite tame into next week with showers at worst.

[Nick L]

Yes my perception is that it has been quite a settled spring so far. The March stats may say it was a wet month but most of that fell over 2 or 3 days, the vast majority of the month was anticyclone dominated and dry. April to me has been fairly average.

[MP-R]

30 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Yes my perception is that it has been quite a settled spring so far. The March stats may say it was a wet month but most of that fell over 2 or 3 days, the vast majority of the month was anticyclone dominated and dry. April to me has been fairly average.

Not here it wasn't. Can safely say the first 9-10 days were wet, then there was a lengthy anticyclonic spell, before the wetness returned before Easter. Quite similar to the rainfall pattern of March 2006 with wet at both ends but a dry spell in the middle. I guess where you are you don't get quite the rain we do in the West Country.

[Stargazer]

Here just down the road in Reading I'd echo Nick L's view that it seems like a pretty normal April so far. Reading University's stats at www.met.reading.ac.uk/weatherdata/Reading_monthly_summaries.html show temperatures almost spot on average to date (although no doubt this will change) with rainfall and sunshine just above average. What I've noticed is the lack of any really warm days - we've usually had one or two days reaching 20C by now but so far have only just scraped 18 on one day (the university site, which is up the hill and usually slightly cooler than the town centre, hasn't even managed that yet) with no warmth in sight.

[Nick L]

29 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Not here it wasn't. Can safely say the first 9-10 days were wet, then there was a lengthy anticyclonic spell, before the wetness returned before Easter. Quite similar to the rainfall pattern of March 2006 with wet at both ends but a dry spell in the middle. I guess where you are you don't get quite the rain we do in the West Country.

Nope, not at all! 

[Frank Trough]

On ‎06‎/‎04‎/‎2016 at 4:51 PM, iapennell said:

The weather stats for March 2016 are in, about 0.7C colder than normal for the South and also wetter than normal (but not by a wide margin). Scotland only slightly warmer than normal but also (surprisingly) a bit drier than normal. I predicted March to be wetter and a little colder than normal, but with these anomalies being stronger towards the north-west but I am confident that going into April my original predictions for continued chilly westerlies and NW winds will hold (here in the North Pennines this afternoon temp. is 4C and we have stiff west/NW winds and showers of sleet and hail!). I will let you judge me on my forecast so far and then as the season further unfolds.

If it is any consolation I did predict a fine spell mid-to late April for most of the country (with Scotland and far NW missing out)!

I think the fact that 20c isn't going to be exceeded anywhere now before May is quite interesting in itself. First time since 2006 and, according to Trevor Harley, before that you have to go back to 1983. So not a common occurrence in recent times at all.

What is now interesting me is how long into May we might have to wait! took until 25th may in 1983 which is the latest date recorded.

If Ian's forecast here is right we might be challenging that.

edit - I tried to quote stargazer rather than Ian - don't know why that happened.

Edited April 22, 2016 by Certain kind of fool

[Nick L]

23 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

I think the fact that 20c isn't going to be exceeded anywhere now before May is quite interesting in itself. First time since 2006 and, according to Trevor Harley, before that you have to go back to 1983. So not a common occurrence in recent times at all.

What is now interesting me is how long into May we might have to wait! took until 25th may in 1983 which is the latest date recorded.

If Ian's forecast here is right we might be challenging that.

edit - I tried to quote stargazer rather than Ian - don't know why that happened.

20c was reached yesterday in Porthmadog unless I've completely misunderstood your point?

[Costa Del Fal]

45 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

I think the fact that 20c isn't going to be exceeded anywhere now before May is quite interesting in itself. First time since 2006 and, according to Trevor Harley, before that you have to go back to 1983. So not a common occurrence in recent times at all.

What is now interesting me is how long into May we might have to wait! took until 25th may in 1983 which is the latest date recorded.

If Ian's forecast here is right we might be challenging that.

edit - I tried to quote stargazer rather than Ian - don't know why that happened.

20c was reached yesterday in Porthmadog , Wales. England has yet to reach this mind. 

Edit: Sorry Nick, just saw you beat me to this lol

Edited April 22, 2016 by Costa Del Fal

[Frank Trough]

15 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

20c was reached yesterday in Porthmadog , Wales. England has yet to reach this mind. 

Edit: Sorry Nick, just saw you beat me to this lol

ha ha! yep, that completely undoes everything I posted. I thought the top figure was 19.5 at Porthmadog which is what I heard on the radio. Clearly they were wrong.

[Man With Beard]

Quote from original post 4th February: "There is a strong likelihood of biting cold Arctic winds sweeping south over Britain at the end of April or the start of May 2016". 

Ian, you've done it again! Well done!!

[Milhouse]

Kudos to Ian even though its a very uninspiring week coming up. Out of interest did Ian predict the incredibly mild December? I don't recall seeing his winter prediction.

[John Badrick]

1 hour ago, Milhouse said:

Kudos to Ian even though its a very uninspiring week coming up. Out of interest did Ian predict the incredibly mild December? I don't recall seeing his winter prediction.

He's predicted prodomatly mild with Westerlies with a lack of blocking patterns, pretty much what we've had. Now we are getting this cold snap end of April beginning of May. Just like he predicted. This should prove to people who doubt his forecasting capabilities that he is one of Net weathers best forecasters!!

[Liam J]

1 hour ago, John Badrick said:

He's predicted prodomatly mild with Westerlies with a lack of blocking patterns, pretty much what we've had. Now we are getting this cold snap end of April beginning of May. Just like he predicted. This should prove to people who doubt his forecasting capabilities that he is one of Net weathers best forecasters!!

Ian also predicted that March would be mainly dominated by strong west/north westerlies bringing cold air off the Greenland Icecap, frequent rain in the north west & Scotland along with gales at times across the north with the south having some dry sunny days later in the month as the storm track shifts further north.  

After an unsettled first week or so we had nearly two weeks of settled weather under high pressure, the north was drier than average & parts of Scotland much drier than average with around 50% or less of the monthly average rainfall. Temperatures in the north were a little above average overall and Braemar was the hotspot recording 18.7°C on the 17th. The south of the UK saw average to above average rainfall for the month and Storm Katie brought heavy rain and damaging winds to the southern half of the UK on the 28th, the IOW recorded gusts in excess of 100mph. 

Edited April 22, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[Milhouse]

1 hour ago, John Badrick said:

He's predicted prodomatly mild with Westerlies with a lack of blocking patterns, pretty much what we've had. Now we are getting this cold snap end of April beginning of May. Just like he predicted. This should prove to people who doubt his forecasting capabilities that he is one of Net weathers best forecasters!!

Thankyou very much for that. I will await his future predictions with interest.

[Evening thunder]

On 22/04/2016 at 7:11 PM, John Badrick said:

He's predicted prodomatly mild with Westerlies with a lack of blocking patterns, pretty much what we've had. Now we are getting this cold snap end of April beginning of May. Just like he predicted. This should prove to people who doubt his forecasting capabilities that he is one of Net weathers best forecasters!!

I wouldn't say it proves it as that's only two seasons, and also most people were going along the general theme of a milder winter and colder spring due to El Nino (although some were suggesting a cold late winter which didn't really happen).

Some encouraging results though.. I wonder what his thoughts are for summer?

[iapennell]

On 17/04/2016 at 11:18 AM, karyo said:

Exactly! I will be looking forward to his winter forecast!

It is encouraging when one's predictions start falling into line. The current cold Arctic spell seems to have taken a number of folk by surprise! What I will say is that the season thus far has been somewhat drier than I predicted across Northern Regions of Britain (there has been something of a Sudden Stratosphere Warming over the Arctic in March and this led to more high-pressure situations in the North than I would have expected). At the moment the BBC long-term outlook predicts May to be predominantly changeable and dominated with Westerlies which also is a vindication of my prediction for the month. 

[karyo]

On ‎24‎/‎04‎/‎2016 at 11:36 AM, Evening thunder said:

I wouldn't say it proves it as that's only two seasons, and also most people were going along the general theme of a milder winter and colder spring due to El Nino (although some were suggesting a cold late winter which didn't really happen).

Some encouraging results though.. I wonder what his thoughts are for summer?

Some were predicting a cold January...

[iapennell]

2nd May 2016; an unsettled westerly regime seems to have set in! Sleet and hail observed in showers at my home at just over 400 metres elevation in the North Pennines!