SPRING 2016: UNSETTLED

[johnholmes]

re this

Perhaps what we need on this site is an ongoing competition whereby a date is selected at a months distance and all forecasts ( temp and wind vector) for a specific weather station ( for confirmation purposes) need to be in at least 3 weeks before the date selected.  I doubt many would attempt it though

Some years ago this type of forecast competition was run, cannot remember how many days ahead but it was good fun.

 

[davehsug]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

re this

Perhaps what we need on this site is an ongoing competition whereby a date is selected at a months distance and all forecasts ( temp and wind vector) for a specific weather station ( for confirmation purposes) need to be in at least 3 weeks before the date selected.  I doubt many would attempt it though

Some years ago this type of forecast competition was run, cannot remember how many days ahead but it was good fun.

 

I'm pretty sure it was you John! You showed a close-up chart from a model I think about 2 weeks ahead & then asked us to give specifics for the area for the actual day.

[johnholmes]

Just now, davehsug said:

I'm pretty sure it was you John! You showed a close-up chart from a model I think about 2 weeks ahead & then asked us to give specifics for the area for the actual day.

You could be right Dave, it was fun  to do and a lot joined in and seemed to enjoy it. Maybe someone might like to take something like that up again? It would be nice to get back to a more free and easy Net Wx, recently it does seem to have got rather personal and unpleasant at times.

[A.J]

9 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

re this

Perhaps what we need on this site is an ongoing competition whereby a date is selected at a months distance and all forecasts ( temp and wind vector) for a specific weather station ( for confirmation purposes) need to be in at least 3 weeks before the date selected.  I doubt many would attempt it though

Some years ago this type of forecast competition was run, cannot remember how many days ahead but it was good fun.

 

next winter will be seasonal, with the norm being mild, atlantic driven with plenty of rain....the occasional anticyclonic spell will happen with the odd bit of snow for the lucky few

hand over the prize now John...it'll save anyone the trouble 

[johnholmes]

bet you are wrong, based on the law of averages!

[Hocus Pocus]

16 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

bet you are wrong, based on the law of averages!

Lol, you could well be right and let's hope the same applies for the coming summer.

[Hocus Pocus]

19 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

bet you are wrong, based on the law of averages!

1 hour ago, ajpoolshark said:

I've got to say, amongst some very good and informative posts, there is some absolute tosh from the usual suspects......I take my hat off to ALL those who attempt seasonal forecasts and give in depth analysis, be it, the met office forecasters, the NW forecasts and other independent forecasters such as Ian Pennell....I would say to the usual suspects, stop your moaning and your stirring, if you think you can do bettr, then be my guest....until such time, wind your necks in!

I hope that wasn't a dig at my posts.

[karyo]

32 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

 

Somehow when I try to post it quotes aj's post.

Anyway, in response to cheese's post on the previous page, Ian will not be right every time he makes a forecast - that's just impossible and too much pressure for even the most senior forecaster. The main thing is to get it right in the majority of cases and so far nobody can match his track record!

We should be thankful that he posts his forecasts here for free regardless of whether they are what we want to hear or not.

Karyo

[Backtrack]

7 hours ago, karyo said:

Stupid comment! If you have nothing constructive to say then don't post!

You mean exactly like the post you replied to mine with? Contradiction at its absolute finest. 

[Paul]

Can we stop with the childish stuff now please. 

[wishingforsnow]

Although it is comforting to remember that another year with a major El Nino (1983) had a cold spring from March - May and a hot summer following a mostly mild winter.

However in other El Nino years where the Nino was not as strong such as 2007 and 2011 as recent examples, the springs in those years were warm and dry but the following summers were cool, wet and unsettled due to a quicker Nina transition during the late spring and summer as the Ninos for those years declined faster. 

I'm not saying its a clear correlation but hopefully this year ends up closer to 1983 in similarity give or take.

Also Ian isn't ruling out some warmer periods during the spring either.

[iapennell]

On 06/02/2016 at 0:59 AM, cheese said:

Until one of his forecasts goes down the pan and everyone turns their back on him because he got something wrong once.. people should be wary about placing people on a pedestal because they have had a lucky run of success. I do not wish to besmirch Ian or his forecasts but ultimately he is an amateur forecaster, and putting greater faith in a random person over a leading meteorological organisation seems incredibly naive and silly to me.

We'll see what actually happens come spring, but using definitive statements like 'certainly' isn't the kind of language a professional would use while making a forecast. You can have a reasonable degree of confidence, but you can never say with certainty that something will happen (unless it's, you know, the sun will rise tomorrow).

The last few years I have made winter predictions based on sea-surface temperatures (particularly across the North Atlantic), Arctic ice extent and the likely impact on the strength of the Westerlies from the atmospheric angular momentum budget (the strength of the NE Trade Winds, El-Nino, wind-patterns high up over the equator, etc all have an effect on AAM).  I have an understanding of meteorology probably up to undergraduate level because my Environmental Science degree which I studied at Lancaster University from 1989 to 1992 had considerable meteorological content; however I would not consider myself a professional as I only got a third! 

I freely admit that making a spring forecast is fraught with pitfalls so it remains a general outlook because of the propensity for the upper winds to "flip" into a different pattern quite quickly as they weaken. Sometimes the Met Office and other professional organisations produce seasonal outlooks that prove to be wrong, if these forecasts are produced by scientists with a degree-level understanding of meteorology and who use powerful computer programs that model the atmosphere then I would say that there is a possibility that mine could go wrong too.  If this happens a couple of times in short succession I would then look at my meteorology and try to improve them.  That said, I am happy that the weather-patterns have  vindicated my grasp of the basics of the macroscale (and microscale) controls on the British weather!

About twelve years ago I started gathering data and information with a view to writing a book about the weather in the North of England and Scotland, one day when I have a bit more time on my hands I might get it finished!

Edited February 7, 2016 by iapennell
correct spelling error

[cheeky_monkey]

On ‎06‎/‎02‎/‎2016 at 6:46 PM, wishingforsnow said:

Although it is comforting to remember that another year with a major El Nino (1983) had a cold spring from March - May and a hot summer following a mostly mild winter.

However in other El Nino years where the Nino was not as strong such as 2007 and 2011 as recent examples, the springs in those years were warm and dry but the following summers were cool, wet and unsettled due to a quicker Nina transition during the late spring and summer as the Ninos for those years declined faster. 

I'm not saying its a clear correlation but hopefully this year ends up closer to 1983 in similarity give or take.

Also Ian isn't ruling out some warmer periods during the spring either.

1998 was the strongest Nino and had an indifferent spring... warm March cold April average May and indifferent/cool summer..btw 2011 was very much a la nina there was no elnino that year I think you meant 09/10..im going for a warmer than average 1st half of summer and a cooler more unsettled second half.

[cheese]

3 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

1998 was the strongest Nino and had an indifferent spring... warm March cold April average May and indifferent/cool summer..btw 2011 was very much a la nina there was no elnino that year I think you meant 09/10..im going for a warmer than average 1st half of summer and a cooler more unsettled second half.

Surely we are well overdue a hot August already. How many more years can pass?  2003 was the last time it was well above average. That's nearly 13 years! OTOH, July 2013 was in the top 10 warmest. 

Edited February 9, 2016 by cheese

[cheese]

On 2/6/2016 at 1:39 PM, Hocus Pocus said:

It matters not that Ian's forecasts was late this winter and he did explain why. The simple fact is that his forecasts are superior to anyone else's out there from what I've seen, by superior I mean the end result and thats what a forecasts should be judged on after all.

Him doing well for the past 2 years isn't enough to say that he is a more accurate seasonal forecaster than anyone else - it simply isn't long enough. That's like me scoring two goals in succession and claiming to be superior to Ronaldo because I have a higher success rate (based on very limited examples).

Whether he is more accurate, or not, will come to light in the next few years, I suspect, but there is a right load of old cobblers being posted on here and there's no justification for it. All seasonal forecasters will get it wrong at some point because the 'art' of seasonal forecasting is far from perfected. Nobody has it sussed - if they did, they'd be filthy stinking rich already.

Edited February 9, 2016 by cheese

[cobbett]

On 04 February 2016 at 1:57 AM, iapennell said:

There is a strong likelihood of biting cold Arctic winds sweeping south over Britain at the end of April or the start of May 2016 as the upper Westerlies lock into four-wave Pattern: By this time strong seasonal warming over continental Europe and North America will shift the upper ridges over these regions whilst the NW Atlantic "Cold Pool" will help affix an intervening trough of cold upper air extending down from the Arctic over or to the east of that chilly part of the North Atlantic.  This sort of set-up bodes badly for our part of the world because it means depressions forming south of Greenland sweep south-east over Britain bringing much colder Arctic air behind them

So, keep posted for an abrupt end to the late-April fine spell with icy north or north-westerly winds bringing hail and sleet to the South and east snowfalls to the North. Snow is likely to lie to low levels anywhere north of a line from Preston to Lincoln and as skies clear two or three devastating late spring frosts are likely with minima below -3C in the North and with air frost in the South.

Brave call ! I'll start to become a believer in the possibility of  accurate seasonal forecasting if you pull this one off !

[fergieweather]

The recently-issued Feb updates of both EC Seasonal and GloSea5 agree on a somewhat higher probability of milder than average conditions this spring and summer (EC having the stronger signal re latter). Interestingly, both have strong +ve MSLP anomaly to SW/W of UK late spring into summer, with a very marked drier than average signal in EC suite; GloSea leaning similarly.  EC tends to lose the +ve temp anomaly into August, with emerging ENSO neutral to incipient La Nina signal later summer (as already offered by other seasonal products).

Edited February 9, 2016 by fergieweather

[on the coast]

9 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

The recently-issued Feb updates of both EC Seasonal and GloSea5 agree on a somewhat higher probability of milder than average conditions this spring and summer (EC having the stronger signal re latter). Interestingly, both have strong +ve MSLP anomaly to SW/W of UK late spring into summer, with a very marked drier than average signal in EC suite; GloSea leaning similarly.  EC tends to lose the +ve temp anomaly into August, with emerging ENSO neutral to incipient La Nina signal later summer (as already offered by other seasonal products).

Best post I have read in weeks. It really would be fantastic for a warm DRY spring as its so much needed.

[Godber 1]

On ‎04‎/‎02‎/‎2016 at 7:10 PM, iapennell said:

Thanks for the vote of confidence, though I have to confess that making a successful Spring prediction is harder because of the weaker Circumpolar Vortex.  The only reason I can make this prediction is that there are macro-scale controls on the large-scale wind-patterns likely to keep the Westerlies stronger (and more predictable) than normal for the season: That is a basis for predicting strong cold West and North West winds earlier in the spring, the unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic also gives me some confidence in predicting the latter part of the spring too- the positions of upper troughs and high-pressures will be modulated by this large patch of unusually cold water and when westerly winds blow over Britain later in the season they will have blown across a North Atlantic over 2C colder than usual over a wide area- this will (naturally) bring mean temperatures down.

I have had a check on the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies and it now seems that a sizeable proportion of the ocean surface- particularly west of 15W and northwards of 40N is considerably colder than normal.  With the Circumpolar Vortex still likely to be strong through to April and the seasonal warming of continental Europe likely to be underway during March (currently much of Europe as far as Moscow is above freezing point) the trough associated with the Circumpolar Vortex that is normally over eastern Canada and the NW Atlantic is likely to shift further east than normal.  One can be confident that there will west and NW winds in March 2016 that will be cold, that these are likely to bring snow and night frost at times to northern Britain.

Later in spring, as the Arctic warms somewhat (likely to be helped by ice-cover being at lower than normal extent overall, though not in the Canada/Greenland sector) and the NE Trade Winds weaken in response to strong spring insolation over subtropical continents weakening the subtropical highs both baroclinic and angular momentum conservation influences will weaken the Circumpolar Vortex substantially and with it the higher-latitude Westerlies. The influence of the cold North Atlantic may well then come into its own then, but the point I made above about the weaker upper Westerlies of late spring being liable to "flip" quickly in unpredictable ways does mean that I am not so prepared to bet my life savings on a warm sunny spell in late April in the South or a cold wet May across most of the country: This is, alas, the most likely outcome as far as I can make out from studying the fundamentals. 

What is much more certain about late spring 2016 is that there will be a number of short spells with markedly different weather types which, against a measure of confidence in chillier and unsettled conditions rather than warmth, means I am certain of at least one spell with very cold weather (for the time of year) in late April or early May which will bring snowfalls to the North and night frosts across the country.  It is possible that the upper troughs caused by the cold North Atlantic remain west of the United Kingdom a couple of times during May in which case it will remain unsettled but warm southerly winds will bring temperatures above 20C to the South, though with an upper trough to the west we will not get wall-to-wall sunshine and blazing heat.  However, the Circumpolar Vortex usually becomes weak enough for it to segue from the two-three wave pattern of winter into a four-wave pattern by May: With an upper-ridge locked to the Canadian Rockies by then (normally the case but the so-called "topographical locking" of the Circumpolar Vortex has less control as the upper winds weaken) a four-wave pattern would place a trough over the United Kingdom; colder-than-normal waters over the North Atlantic would reinforce troughing over and downwind of the cold ocean surfaces. For these reasons I am prepared to predict with some confidence that (on the whole) May 2016 will be colder than normal across the country. This does not mean every day will be cold and wet for the time of year; given the sharp variations likely from one week to the next there will be some warm sunny spells but these are likely to be short lived affairs that will not persist to the extent where really hot weather can build up.

The transition of the upper winds from three-wave to four-wave normally occurs in late April, this is likely to be the time when high-pressure (caused by an upper ridge crossing Britain) will bring a fine warm spell to the South (though clear nights will be cold with frost likely to occur). With the upper ridge retreating westwards after this fine spell and the new (extra) trough ridge pattern inserting into the weakened upper Westerlies over Europe- Russia, this is the time when bitter Arctic winds are likely to sweep the country.

Another factor that gives me confidence in making this prediction is that winter this year (certainly the latter part of it) is not too dissimilar to late January and February last year: Admittedly there was a more decent cold spell but this year- cold waters in the NW Atlantic, reduced pack-ice in the Eurasian Arctic and slightly warmer than usual waters around the north and east of Britain bear a striking resemblance to last February. Last spring was windy in March, there was a spell of warm sunny weather in April, a nasty late-April cold snap bringing the lowest temperatures (certainly to the North Pennines) for so late in the year seen for thirty years (one man living not far from me had the entire contents of his pollytunnel killed off)- and May was cold and wet. Only this year I am more confident March will be colder than normal because the cold waters of the North Atlantic are even colder over a wider area!          

Hope you're wrong about late April early May with regard to cold and snow, as I am walking Wainwrights coast to coast starting early May.

[wishingforsnow]

16 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

1998 was the strongest Nino and had an indifferent spring... warm March cold April average May and indifferent/cool summer..btw 2011 was very much a la nina there was no elnino that year I think you meant 09/10..im going for a warmer than average 1st half of summer and a cooler more unsettled second half.

I think the summer of 1998 was down to the fact that the Nino got a second wind in spring - after all this was the biggest one to date. I found summer 98 to be similar to Summer 2015 - a lot of the time it was colder than average but dry (in my location) and August had some spells of decent weather. It may be remembered as a below average summer but definitely not on par with some of the autumnal horrors we had to experience in 2007/2012.

Edited February 10, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[John Badrick]

15 hours ago, on the coast said:

Best post I have read in weeks. It really would be fantastic for a warm DRY spring as its so much needed.

I think if Ian Ps mostly cold spring forecast plays out (which is now basically the opposite to the big guns)  Hopefully more people will give him the respect he deserves. I am hoping it does play out the way he has called it, not because I want a cold spring, but because it may prove we have our very own a top class forecaster on this forum

[wishingforsnow]

37 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

I think if Ian Ps mostly cold spring forecast plays out (which is now basically the opposite to the big guns)  Hopefully more people will give him the respect he deserves. I am hoping it does play out the way he has called it, not because I want a cold spring, but because it may prove we have our very own a top class forecaster on this forum

Ian F is suggesting it could start getting warmer than average late Spring, so Ian P's forecast for the first part of Spring could be right in some way

[John Badrick]

17 hours ago, Godber 1 said:

 

 

29 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

Ian F is suggesting it could start getting warmer than average late Spring, so Ian P's forecast for the first part of Spring could be right in some way

 "measure of confidence in chillier and unsettled conditions rather than warmth, means I am certain of at least one spell with very cold weather (for the time of year) in late April or early May which will bring snowfalls to the North and night frosts across the country"

quoted from Ian's forecast

late April early May is  last stages of Spring is it not?

[wishingforsnow]

Just now, John Badrick said:

 

 "measure of confidence in chillier and unsettled conditions rather than warmth, means I am certain of at least one spell with very cold weather (for the time of year) in late April or early May which will bring snowfalls to the North and night frosts across the country"

quoted from Ian's forecast

late April early May is  last stages of Spring is it not?

I would consider late Spring - early Summer to be May/June so in my head, Ian P's forecast could fall within that timeframe between March and May. April more like the peak of Spring. 

[John Badrick]

11 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

I would consider late Spring - early Summer to be May/June so in my head, Ian P's forecast could fall within that timeframe between March and May. April more like the peak of Spring. 

What I'm saying is Ian's forecast is going opposite to the recently-issued Feb updates of both EC Seasonal and GloSea5 that are going for mild spring